924 resultados para Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE)
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Female genital mutilation (FGM) is a cultural practice involving the deliberate, non-therapeutic physical modification of young girls’ genitalia. FGM can take several forms, ranging from smaller incisions, to removal of the clitoris and labia, and narrowing or even closing of the vagina. FGM predates and has no basis in the Koran, or any other religious text. Rather, it is a cultural tradition, particularly common in Islamic societies in regions of Africa, motivated by a patriarchal society’s desire to control female bodies and lives. The primary reason for this desire for control is to ensure virginity at marriage, thereby preserving family honour, within a patriarchal social structure where females’ value as persons is intrinsically connected to, and limited to, their worth as virgin brides. Recent efforts at legal prohibition and practical eradication in a growing number of African nations mark a significant turning point in how societies treat females. This shift in cultural power has been catalysed by a concern for female health, but it has also been motivated by an impulse to promote the human rights of girls and women. Although FGM remains widely practiced and there is much progress yet to be made before its eradication, the rights-based approach which has grown in strength embodies a marked shift in cultural power which reflects progress in women’s and children’s rights in the Western world, but which is now being applied in a different cultural context. This chapter reviews the nature of FGM, its prevalence, and health consequences. It discusses recent legal, cultural and practical developments, especially in African nations. Finally, this chapter raises the possibility that an absolute human right against FGM may emerge.
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Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is more prevalent in regional and remote Australia compared to metropolitan areas. The aim of Healthy Hearts was to determine age and sex specific CVD risk factor levels and the potential value of national risk clinics. Methods: Healthy Hearts was an observational research study conducted in four purposefully selected higher risk communities in regional Victoria, Australia. The main outcome measures were the proportion of participants with CVD risk factors with group comparisons to determine the adjusted likelihood of elevated risk factor levels. Trained personnel used a standardized protocol over four weeks per community to measure CVD risk factor levels, estimate absolute CVD risk and provide feedback and advice. Results: A total of 2125 self-selected participants were assessed (mean age 58 ± 15 years, 57% women). Overall, CVD risk factors were highly prevalent. More men than women had ≥ 2 modifiable CVD risk factors (76% vs. 68%, p < .001), pre-existing CVD (20 vs. 15%, p < .01) and a major ECG abnormality requiring follow-up (15% vs. 7%, p < .001) . Less men reported depressive symptoms compared to women (28% vs. 22%, p < .01). A higher proportion of women were obese (adjusted OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.63), and physically inactive (adjusted OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.63). Conclusions: High CVD risk factor levels were confirmed for regional Victoria. Close engagement with individuals and communities provides scope for the application of regional risk management clinics to reduce the burden of CVD risk in regional Australia.
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Despite the prominent use of the Suchey-Brooks (S-B) method of age estimation in forensic anthropological practice, it is subject to intrinsic limitations, with reports of differential inter-population error rates between geographical locations. This study assessed the accuracy of the S-B method to a contemporary adult population in Queensland, Australia and provides robust age parameters calibrated for our population. Three-dimensional surface reconstructions were generated from computed tomography scans of the pubic symphysis of male and female Caucasian individuals aged 15–70 years (n = 195) in Amira® and Rapidform®. Error was analyzed on the basis of bias, inaccuracy and percentage correct classification for left and right symphyseal surfaces. Application of transition analysis and Chi-square statistics demonstrated 63.9% and 69.7% correct age classification associated with the left symphyseal surface of Australian males and females, respectively, using the S-B method. Using Bayesian statistics, probability density distributions for each S-B phase were calculated, providing refined age parameters for our population. Mean inaccuracies of 6.77 (±2.76) and 8.28 (±4.41) years were reported for the left surfaces of males and females, respectively; with positive biases for younger individuals (<55 years) and negative biases in older individuals. Significant sexual dimorphism in the application of the S-B method was observed; and asymmetry in phase classification of the pubic symphysis was a frequent phenomenon. These results recommend that the S-B method should be applied with caution in medico-legal death investigations of Queensland skeletal remains and warrant further investigation of reliable age estimation techniques.
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We review the theory of intellectual property (IP) in the creative industries (CI) from the evolutionary economic perspective based on evidence from China. We argue that many current confusions and dysfunctions about IP can be traced to three widely overlooked aspects of the growth of knowledge context of IP in the CI: (1) the effect of globalization; (2) the dominating relative economic value of reuse of creative output over monopoly incentives to create input; and (3) the evolution of business models in response to institutional change. We conclude that a substantial weakening of copyright will, in theory, produce positive net public and private gain due to the evolutionary dynamics of all three dimensions.
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In this paper we give an overview of some very recent work, as well as presenting a new approach, on the stochastic simulation of multi-scaled systems involving chemical reactions. In many biological systems (such as genetic regulation and cellular dynamics) there is a mix between small numbers of key regulatory proteins, and medium and large numbers of molecules. In addition, it is important to be able to follow the trajectories of individual molecules by taking proper account of the randomness inherent in such a system. We describe different types of simulation techniques (including the stochastic simulation algorithm, Poisson Runge-Kutta methods and the balanced Euler method) for treating simulations in the three different reaction regimes: slow, medium and fast. We then review some recent techniques on the treatment of coupled slow and fast reactions for stochastic chemical kinetics and present a new approach which couples the three regimes mentioned above. We then apply this approach to a biologically inspired problem involving the expression and activity of LacZ and LacY proteins in E coli, and conclude with a discussion on the significance of this work. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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A routine activity for a sports dietitian is to estimate energy and nutrient intake from an athlete's self-reported food intake. Decisions made by the dietitian when coding a food record are a source of variability in the data. The aim of the present study was to determine the variability in estimation of the daily energy and key nutrient intakes of elite athletes, when experienced coders analyzed the same food record using the same database and software package. Seven-day food records from a dietary survey of athletes in the 1996 Australian Olympic team were randomly selected to provide 13 sets of records, each set representing the self-reported food intake of an endurance, team, weight restricted, and sprint/power athlete. Each set was coded by 3-5 members of Sports Dietitians Australia, making a total of 52 athletes, 53 dietitians, and 1456 athlete-days of data. We estimated within- and between- athlete and dietitian variances for each dietary nutrient using mixed modeling, and we combined the variances to express variability as a coefficient of variation (typical variation as a percent of the mean). Variability in the mean of 7-day estimates of a nutrient was 2- to 3-fold less than that of a single day. The variability contributed by the coder was less than the true athlete variability for a 1-day record but was of similar magnitude for a 7-day record. The most variable nutrients (e.g., vitamin C, vitamin A, cholesterol) had approximately 3-fold more variability than least variable nutrients (e.g., energy, carbohydrate, magnesium). These athlete and coder variabilities need to be taken into account in dietary assessment of athletes for counseling and research.
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Objectives The relationship between performance variability and accuracy in cricket fast bowlers of different skill levels under three different task conditions was investigated. Bowlers of different skill levels were examined to observe if they could adapt movement patterns to maintain performance accuracy on a bowling skills test. Design 8 national, 12 emerging and 12 junior pace bowlers completed an adapted version of the Cricket Australia bowling skills test, in which they performed 30 trials involving short (n = 10), good (n = 10), and full (n = 10) length deliveries. Methods Bowling accuracy was recorded by digitising ball position relative to the centre of a target. Performance measures were mean radial error (accuracy), variable error (consistency), centroid error (bias), bowling score and ball speed. Radial error changes across the duration of the skills test were used to record accuracy adjustment in subsequent deliveries. Results Elite fast bowlers performed better in speed, accuracy, and test scores than developing athletes. Bowlers who were less variable were also more accurate across all delivery lengths. National and emerging bowlers were able to adapt subsequent performance trials within the same bowling session for short length deliveries. Conclusions Accuracy and adaptive variability were key components of elite performance in fast bowling which improved with skill level. In this study, only national elite bowlers showed requisite levels of adaptive variability to bowl a range of lengths to different pitch locations.
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Purpose: To use a large wavefront database of a clinical population to investigate relationships between refractions and higher order aberrations and between aberrations of right and left eyes. Methods: Third and fourth-order aberration coefficients and higher-order root-mean-squared aberrations (HO RMS), scaled to a pupil size of 4.5 mm diameter, were analysed in a population of about 24,000 patients from Carl Zeiss Vision's European wavefront database. Correlations were determined between the aberrations and the variables of refraction, near addition and cylinder. Results: Most aberration coefficients were significantly dependent upon these variables, but the proportions of aberrations that could be explained by these factors were less than 2% except for spherical aberration (12%), horizontal coma (9%) and HO RMS (7%). Near addition was the major contributor for horizontal coma (8.5% out of 9.5%) and spherical equivalent was the major contributor for spherical aberration (7.7% out of 11.6%). Interocular correlations were highly significant for all aberration coefficients, varying between 0.16 and 0.81. Anisometropia was a variable of significance for three aberrations (vertical coma, secondary astigmatism and tetrafoil), but little importance can be placed on this because of the small proportions of aberrations that can be explained by refraction (all less than 1.0 %). Conclusions: Most third- and fourth-order aberration coefficients were significantly dependent upon spherical equivalent, near addition and cylinder, but only horizontal coma (9%) and spherical aberration (12%) showed dependencies of greater than 2%. Interocular correlations were highly significant for all aberration coefficients, but anisometropia had little influence on aberration coefficients.
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Modelling how a word is activated in human memory is an important requirement for determining the probability of recall of a word in an extra-list cueing experiment. Previous research assumed a quantum-like model in which the semantic network was modelled as entangled qubits, however the level of activation was clearly being over-estimated. This paper explores three variations of this model, each of which are distinguished by a scaling factor designed to compensate the overestimation.
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The health impacts of exposure to ambient temperature have been drawing increasing attention from the environmental health research community, government, society, industries, and the public. Case-crossover and time series models are most commonly used to examine the effects of ambient temperature on mortality. However, some key methodological issues remain to be addressed. For example, few studies have used spatiotemporal models to assess the effects of spatial temperatures on mortality. Few studies have used a case-crossover design to examine the delayed (distributed lag) and non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality. Also, little evidence is available on the effects of temperature changes on mortality, and on differences in heat-related mortality over time. This thesis aimed to address the following research questions: 1. How to combine case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear models? 2. Is there any significant difference in effect estimates between time series and spatiotemporal models? 3. How to assess the effects of temperature changes between neighbouring days on mortality? 4. Is there any change in temperature effects on mortality over time? To combine the case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear model, datasets including deaths, and weather conditions (minimum temperature, mean temperature, maximum temperature, and relative humidity), and air pollution were acquired from Tianjin China, for the years 2005 to 2007. I demonstrated how to combine the case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model. This allows the case-crossover design to estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature whilst controlling for seasonality. There was consistent U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality. Cold effects were delayed by 3 days, and persisted for 10 days. Hot effects were acute and lasted for three days, and were followed by mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, and cardiovascular deaths. Mean temperature was a better predictor of mortality (based on model fit) than maximum or minimum temperature. It is still unclear whether spatiotemporal models using spatial temperature exposure produce better estimates of mortality risk compared with time series models that use a single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from a network of sites. Daily mortality data were obtained from 163 locations across Brisbane city, Australia from 2000 to 2004. Ordinary kriging was used to interpolate spatial temperatures across the city based on 19 monitoring sites. A spatiotemporal model was used to examine the impact of spatial temperature on mortality. A time series model was used to assess the effects of single site’s temperature, and averaged temperature from 3 monitoring sites on mortality. Squared Pearson scaled residuals were used to check the model fit. The results of this study show that even though spatiotemporal models gave a better model fit than time series models, spatiotemporal and time series models gave similar effect estimates. Time series analyses using temperature recorded from a single monitoring site or average temperature of multiple sites were equally good at estimating the association between temperature and mortality as compared with a spatiotemporal model. A time series Poisson regression model was used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. Temperature change was calculated by the current day's mean temperature minus the previous day's mean. In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 �C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.16 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.31) for non-external mortality (NEM), 1.19 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.41) for NEM in females, and 1.44 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.89) for NEM aged 65.74 years. An increase of more than 3 �C was associated with RRs of 1.35 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.77) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.67 (95% CI: 1.15, 2.43) for people aged < 65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 �C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.13 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.22) for total NEM, 1.25 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.39) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.25 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.39) for people aged . 75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. A change in temperature of more than 3 �C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for mean temperature. I examined the variation in the effects of high temperatures on elderly mortality (age . 75 years) by year, city and region for 83 large US cities between 1987 and 2000. High temperature days were defined as two or more consecutive days with temperatures above the 90th percentile for each city during each warm season (May 1 to September 30). The mortality risk for high temperatures was decomposed into: a "main effect" due to high temperatures using a distributed lag non-linear function, and an "added effect" due to consecutive high temperature days. I pooled yearly effects across regions and overall effects at both regional and national levels. The effects of high temperature (both main and added effects) on elderly mortality varied greatly by year, city and region. The years with higher heat-related mortality were often followed by those with relatively lower mortality. Understanding this variability in the effects of high temperatures is important for the development of heat-warning systems. In conclusion, this thesis makes contribution in several aspects. Case-crossover design was combined with distribute lag non-linear model to assess the effects of temperature on mortality in Tianjin. This makes the case-crossover design flexibly estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature. Both extreme cold and high temperatures increased the risk of mortality in Tianjin. Time series model using single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from some sites can be used to examine the effects of temperature on mortality. Temperature change (no matter significant temperature drop or great temperature increase) increases the risk of mortality. The high temperature effect on mortality is highly variable from year to year.
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Background: Measurement accuracy is critical for biomechanical gait assessment. Very few studies have determined the accuracy of common clinical rearfoot variables between cameras with different collection frequencies. Research question: What is the measurement error for common rearfoot gait parameters when using a standard 30Hz digital camera compared to 100Hz camera? Type of study: Descriptive. Methods: 100 footfalls were recorded from 10 subjects ( 10 footfalls per subject) running on a treadmill at 2.68m/s. A high-speed digital timer, accurate within 1ms served as an external reference. Markers were placed along the vertical axis of the heel counter and the long axis of the shank. 2D coordinates for the four markers were determined from heel strike to heel lift. Variables of interest included time of heel strike (THS), time of heel lift (THL), time to maximum eversion (TMax), and maximum rearfoot eversion angle (EvMax). Results: THS difference was 29.77ms (+/- 8.77), THL difference was 35.64ms (+/- 6.85), and TMax difference was 16.50ms (+/- 2.54). These temporal values represent a difference equal to 11.9%, 14.3%, and 6.6% of the stance phase of running gait, respectively. EvMax difference was 1.02 degrees (+/- 0.46). Conclusions: A 30Hz camera is accurate, compared to a high-frequency camera, in determining TMax and EvMax during a clinical gait analysis. However, relatively large differences, in excess of 12% of the stance phase of gait, for THS and THL variables were measured.
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Biological systems involving proliferation, migration and death are observed across all scales. For example, they govern cellular processes such as wound-healing, as well as the population dynamics of groups of organisms. In this paper, we provide a simplified method for correcting mean-field approximations of volume-excluding birth-death-movement processes on a regular lattice. An initially uniform distribution of agents on the lattice may give rise to spatial heterogeneity, depending on the relative rates of proliferation, migration and death. Many frameworks chosen to model these systems neglect spatial correlations, which can lead to inaccurate predictions of their behaviour. For example, the logistic model is frequently chosen, which is the mean-field approximation in this case. This mean-field description can be corrected by including a system of ordinary differential equations for pair-wise correlations between lattice site occupancies at various lattice distances. In this work we discuss difficulties with this method and provide a simplication, in the form of a partial differential equation description for the evolution of pair-wise spatial correlations over time. We test our simplified model against the more complex corrected mean-field model, finding excellent agreement. We show how our model successfully predicts system behaviour in regions where the mean-field approximation shows large discrepancies. Additionally, we investigate regions of parameter space where migration is reduced relative to proliferation, which has not been examined in detail before, and our method is successful at correcting the deviations observed in the mean-field model in these parameter regimes.
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In Australia and increasingly worldwide, methamphetamine is one of the most commonly seized drugs analysed by forensic chemists. The current well-established GC/MS methods used to identify and quantify methamphetamine are lengthy, expensive processes, but often rapid analysis is requested by undercover police leading to an interest in developing this new analytical technique. Ninety six illicit drug seizures containing methamphetamine (0.1% - 78.6%) were analysed using Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy with an Attenuated Total Reflectance attachment and Chemometrics. Two Partial Least Squares models were developed, one using the principal Infrared Spectroscopy peaks of methamphetamine and the other a Hierarchical Partial Least Squares model. Both of these models were refined to choose the variables that were most closely associated with the methamphetamine % vector. Both of the models were excellent, with the principal peaks in the Partial Least Squares model having Root Mean Square Error of Prediction 3.8, R2 0.9779 and lower limit of quantification 7% methamphetamine. The Hierarchical Partial Least Squares model had lower limit of quantification 0.3% methamphetamine, Root Mean Square Error of Prediction 5.2 and R2 0.9637. Such models offer rapid and effective methods for screening illicit drug samples to determine the percentage of methamphetamine they contain.
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It is well known that a broad range of ocular anatomical and physiological parameters undergo significant diurnal variation. However, the natural diurnal variations that occur in the length of the human eye (axial length) and their underlying causes have been less well studied. Improvements in optical methods for the measurement of ocular biometrics now allow more precise and comprehensive measurements of axial length to be performed than has previously been possible. Research from animal models also suggests a link between diurnal axial length variations and longer term myopic eye growth, and that retinal image defocus can disrupt these diurnal rhythms in axial length. This research programme has examined the diurnal variations in axial length in young normal eyes, the contributing components and the influence of optical stimuli on these changes. In the first experiment, the normal pattern and consistency of the diurnal variations in axial length were examined at 10 different times (5 measurements each day, at ~ 3-hour intervals from ~ 9 am to ~ 9 pm) over 2 consecutive days on 30 young adult subjects (15 myopes, 15 emmetropes). Additionally, variations in a range of other ocular biometric measurements such as choroidal thickness, intraocular pressure, and other ocular biometrics were also explored as potential factors that may be associated with the observed variations in axial length. To investigate the potential influence of refractive error on diurnal axial length variations, the differences in the magnitude and pattern of diurnal variations in axial length between the myopic and emmetropic subjects were examined. Axial length underwent significant diurnal variation that was consistently observed over the 2 consecutive days of measurements, with the longest axial length typically occurring during the day, and the shortest at night. Significant diurnal variations were also observed in choroidal thickness, IOP and other ocular biometrics (such as central corneal thickness, anterior chamber depth and vitreous chamber depth) of the eye. Diurnal variations in vitreous chamber depth, IOP (positive associations) and choroidal thickness (negative association) were all significantly correlated with the diurnal changes in axial length. Choroidal thickness was found to fluctuate approximately in antiphase to the axial length changes, with the average timing of the longest axial length coinciding with the thinnest choroid and vice versa. There were no significant differences in the ocular diurnal variations associated with refractive error. Given that the diurnal changes in axial length could be associated with the changes in the eye’s optical quality, whether the optical quality of the eye also undergoes diurnal variation in the same cohort of young adult myopes and emmetropes over 2 consecutive days was also examined. Significant diurnal variations were observed only in the best sphere refraction (power vector M) and in the spherical aberration of the eye over two consecutive days of testing. The changes in the eyes lower and higher order ocular optics were not significantly associated with the diurnal variations in axial length and the other measured ocular biometric parameters. No significant differences were observed in the magnitude and timing of diurnal variations in lower-order and higher-order optics associated with refractive error. Since the small natural fluctuations in the eye’s optical quality did not appear to be sufficient to influence the natural diurnal fluctuations in ocular biometric parameters, in the next experiment, the influence of monocular myopic defocus (+1.50 DS) upon the normal diurnal variations in axial length and choroidal thickness of young adult emmetropic human subjects (n=13) imposed over a 12 hour period was examined. A series of axial length and choroidal thickness measurements (collected at ~3 hourly intervals, with the first measurement at ~9 am and the final measurement at ~9 pm) were obtained over three consecutive days. The natural diurnal rhythms (Day 1, no defocus), diurnal rhythms with monocular myopic defocus (Day 2, +1.50 DS spectacle lens over the right eye), and the recovery from any defocus induced changes (Day 3, no defocus) were examined. Significant diurnal variations over the course of the day were observed in both axial length and choroidal thickness on each of the three measurement days. The introduction of monocular myopic defocus led to significant reductions in the mean amplitude of diurnal change, and phase shifts in the peak timing of the diurnal rhythms in axial length and choroidal thickness. These defocus induced changes were found to be transient in nature and returned to normal the day following removal of the defocus. To further investigate the influence of optical stimuli on human diurnal rhythms, in the final experiment, the influence of monocular hyperopic defocus on the normal diurnal rhythms in axial length and choroidal thickness was examined in young adult emmetropic subjects (n=15). Similar to the previous experiment, the natural diurnal rhythms (Day 1, no defocus), diurnal rhythms with monocular hyperopic defocus (Day 2, -2.00 DS spectacle lens over the right eye), and the recovery from any defocus induced changes (Day 3, no defocus) were examined over three consecutive days. Both axial length and choroidal thickness underwent significant diurnal variations on each of the three days. The introduction of monocular hyperopic defocus resulted in a significant increase in the amplitude of diurnal change, but no change in the peak timing of diurnal rhythms in both parameters. The ocular changes associated with hyperopic defocus returned to normal, the day following removal of the defocus. This research has shown that axial length undergoes significant diurnal variation in young adult human eyes, and has shown that the natural diurnal variations in choroidal thickness and IOP are significantly associated, and may underlie these diurnal fluctuations in axial length. This work also demonstrated for the first time that exposing young human eyes to monocular myopic and hyperopic defocus leads to a significant disruption in the normal diurnal rhythms of axial length and choroidal thickness. These changes in axial length with defocus may reflect underlying mechanisms in the human eye that are involved in the regulation of longer term eye growth.