Futures perspectives for manufacturing

This paper introduces a new approach to the capture, structuring and analysis of results from five national manufacturing Foresight exercises, and illustrates how such tools can help to integrate futures studies and strategy formulation.

Interações entre o Legislativo e o Executivo federal do Brasil na definição de políticas de interesse amplo: uma abordagem sistêmica, com aplicação na saúde

Aborda a relação entre o Legislativo e o Executivo na produção de políticas. Identifica os elementos do sistema de produção legislativa do Brasil (regras estruturantes, atores, recursos, instâncias de decisão e tipos de políticas produzidas) e propõe um modelo para o caso brasileiro de presidencialismo de coalizão, com base em estudos sobre a relação entre o presidente e o Congresso dos EUA e também na vasta produção existente sobre o contexto nacional. O sistema é estruturado pelo marco normativo de maior hierarquia, a Constituição, determinado historicamente, o qual privilegia a governabilidade com "accountability" e também orienta políticas segundo princípios de equidade, mas com responsabilidade orçamentária. O modelo considera que as agendas estratégicas dos atores são produto de variadas influências, incluindo o ¿status quo¿ (políticas existentes) e as demandas provenientes das conexões normativa e eleitoral. A partir desse modelo, o estudo analisa seus elementos e relações, aplicando-o a um conjunto abrangente de propostas legislativas (cerca de 21 mil proposições sobre todos os temas, apresentadas no Congresso entre 1999 e 2006, nas três vias).

The induced flow field by internal solitary wave and its action on cylindrical piles in the stratified ocean

The induced flow fields by internal solitary waves and its actions on cylindrical piles in density stratified ocean with a basic density profile and a basic velocity profile are investigated. Some results, such as the time evolution of flow fields and hydrodynamic forces on the piles are yielded both by theoretical analysis and numerical calculation for general and specific cases. Several kinds of ambient sea conditions of the South China Sea are specified for numerical simulation. Moreover, the effects of relative density difference, depth ratio and wave steepness on maximal total force and total torque are analyzed.

Expected Fair Allocation in Farsighted Network Formation

I consider cooperation situations where players have network relations. Networks evolve according to a stationary transition probability matrix and at each moment in time players receive payoffs from a stationary allocation rule. Players discount the future by a common factor. The pair formed by an allocation rule and a transition probability matrix is called expected fair if for every link in the network both participants gain, marginally, and in discounted, expected terms, the same from it; and it is called a pairwise network formation procedure if the probability that a link is created (or eliminated) is positive if the discounted, expected gains to its two participants are positive too. The main result is the existence, for the discount factor small enough, of an expected fair and pairwise network formation procedure where the allocation rule is component balanced, meaning it distributes the total value of any maximal connected subnetwork among its participants. This existence result holds for all discount factors when the pairwise network formation procedure is restricted. I finally provide some comparison with previous models of farsighted network formation.

Seasonal, horizontal, and vertical distribution of phytoplankton chlorophyll a in the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf Ecosystem

The broad scale features in the horizontal, vertical, and seasonal distribution of phytoplankton chlorophyll a on the northeast U.S. continental shelf are described based on 57,088 measurements made during 78 oceanographic surveys from 1977 through 1988. Highest mean water column chlorophyll concentration (Chlw,) is usually observed in nearshore areas adjacent to the mouths of the estuaries in the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB), over the shallow water on Georges Bank, and a small area sampled along the southeast edge of Nantucket Shoals. Lowest Chlw «0.125 ug l-1) is usually restricted to the most seaward stations sampled along the shelf-break and the central deep waters in the Gulf of Maine. There is at least a twofold seasonal variation in phytoplankton biomass in all areas, with highest phytoplankton concentrations (m3) and highest integrated standing stocks (m2) occurring during the winter-spring (WS) bloom, and the lowest during summer, when vertical density stratification is maximal. In most regions, a secondary phytoplankton biomass pulse is evident during convective destratification in fall, usually in October. Fall bloom in some areas of Georges Bank approaches the magnitude of the WS-bloom, but Georges Bank and Middle Atlantic Bight fall blooms are clearly subordinate to WS-blooms. Measurements of chlorophyll in two size-fractions of the phytoplankton, netplankton (>20 um) and nanoplankton «20 um), revealed that the smaller nanoplankton are responsible for most of the phytoplankton biomass on the northeast U.S. shelf. Netplankton tend to be more abundant in nearshore areas of the MAB and shallow water on Georges Bank, where chlorophyll a is usually high; nanoplankton dominate deeper water at the shelf-break and deep water in the Gulf of Maine, where Chlw is usually low. As a general rule, the percent of phytoplankton in the netplankton size-fraction increases with increasing depth below surface and decreases proceeding offshore. There are distinct seasonal and regional patterns in the vertical distribution of chlorophyll a and percent netplankton, as revealed in composite vertical profiles of chlorophyll a constructed for 11 layers of the water column. Subsurface chlorophyll a maxima are ubiquitous during summer in stratified water. Chlorophyll a in the subsurface maximum layer is generally 2-8 times the concentration in the overlying and underlying water and approaches 50 to 75% of the levels observed in surface water during WS-bloom. The distribution of the ratio of the subsurface maximum chlorophyll a to surface chlorophyll a (SSR) during summer parallels the shelfwide pattern for stability, indexed as the difference in density (sigma-t) between 40 m and surface (stability 40. The weakest stability and lowest SSR's are found in shallow tidally-mixed water on Georges Bank; the greatest stability and highest SSR's (8-12:1) are along the mid and outer MAB shelf, over the winter residual water known as the "cold band." On Georges Bank, the distribution of SSR and the stability40 are roughly congruent with the pattern for maximum surface tidal current velocity, with values above 50 cms-1 defining SSR's less than 2:1 and the well-mixed area. Physical factors (bathymetry, vertical mixing by strong tidal currents, and seasonal and regional differences in the intensity and duration of vertical stratification) appear to explain much of the variability in phytoplankton chlorophyll a throughout this ecosystem. (PDF file contains 126 pages.)

Los determinantes de la rentabilidad primaria de los bonos de titulización hipotecaria: la influencia de las estructuras multitramo

[ES] Este artículo analiza los determinantes de la rentabilidad primaria de los bonos de titulización hipotecaria (conocidos en la literatura como mortgage backed securities, o MBS) emitidos en España durante el periodo 1993-2011, periodo en el que el mercado español llegó a convertirse en el más importante de Europa continental. Los resultados obtenidos sobre el análisis de la población completa de MBS emitidos (262 tramos configurados sobre 94 fondos de titulización) indican que la estructuración multitramo de los MBS ha ayudado a reducir el riesgo percibido global de las emisiones de MBS, mediante la generación de mercados más completos y la reducción de los problemas derivados de la existencia de asimetrías informativas implícitas en el proceso de selección de los activos transmitidos por parte de la entidad cedente. Esta reducción del riesgo percibido ha tenido un efecto directo sobre la rentabilidad ofrecida por los bonos de titulización emitidos. Además, no se encuentran evidencias de que la emisión de MBS persiga la transmisión efectiva de riesgos, más bien al contrario. Las Entidades de crédito, por lo general, han retenido los tramos de primeras pérdidas, lo que ha contribuido a mantener en niveles muy bajos (por debajo de la rentabilidad de la deuda soberana) la rentabilidad ofrecida por los MBS. Precisamente, el escaso diferencial ofrecido por los bonos de titulización se debe a que los tramos retenidos no han ofrecido primas de rentabilidad ajustadas al riesgo inherente.

Role of G protein coupled inwardly rectifier K+ channels (GIRK) on the neurobiology depression

353 págs.

Nutrient-phytoplankton interrelationships in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Near surface nutrient distributions in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, using data from the EASTROPAC Expedition of 1967-68 and pre~EASTROPAC data, are described. Nutrient concentrations were maximal along the equator, in the Peru Current and its offshore extension, and in the Costa Rica Dome and westward tensions of this feature. Nutrient-poor water was found north of the equator well offshore. In this water nitrate was often undetectable (<0.1 µg-at/liter) at the surface, but phosphate and silicic acid concentrations were moderate. Enrichment experiments showed that nitrogen was the primary limiting nutrient in poor water even though large amounts of organic N were found. Half saturation constants (K s ) were determined for ammonium-supported phytoplankton growth. These data were used to calculate near-surface primary productivity values which compared favorably with 14C values. Assimilation ratio measurements indicated that algae were not extremely nitrogen-deficient. Laboratory-determined K, values for phosphate and silicic acid indicated that these nutrients were rarely limiting. In rich water, chlorophyll levels were less than expected from nutrient levels, and this anomaly may be related to limitation by nutrients other than nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), or silicon (Si), or to grazing. SPANISH: Se describe la distribución subsuperficial de los nutrientes en el Océano Pacífico oriental tropical, empleando los datos de la Expedición EASTROPAC de 1967~68 y datos anteriores a éstos. La concentración de nutrientes fue máxima a lo largo del ecuador, en la Corriente del Perú, en su prolongación mar afuera, en el Domo de Costa Rica y en las prolongaciones occidentales de esta característica. Se encontraron aguas pobres en nutrientes al norte del ecuador y bastante mar adentro. En estas aguas el nitrato era casi imperceptible (<0.1 µg-at/litro) en la superficie, pero las concentraciones de fosfato y ácido silícico fueron moderadas. Los experimentos de enriquecimiento indicaron que el nitrógeno era el principal nutriente limitante en aguas pobres, aun cuando se encontraron grandes cantidades de nitrógeno orgánico. Se determinaron las constantes de saturación media (K s ) para el desarrollo del fitoplancton sostenido por el amonio. Estos datos se emplearon para calcular los valores de la productividad primaria cerca a la superficie que pueden compararse favorablemente con los valores del 14C. Las medidas de la proporción de asimilación indican que las algas no tenían una deficiencia extremada de nitrógeno. Los valores determinados en el laboratorio de K, para el fosfato y ácido silícico indicaron que estos nutrientes limitaron rara vez la producción. En aguas ricas, los niveles de clorofila fueron inferiores a lo esperado según los niveles nutritivos y esta anomalía puede relacionarse a la alimentación o a la escasez de otros nutrientes distintos al nitrógeno (N), fósforo (P) o silicio (Si).

Características antropométricas, condición física y velocidad de lanzamiento en balonmano de élite y amateur

166 p.

Efficient learning of decomposable models with a bounded clique size

The learning of probability distributions from data is a ubiquitous problem in the fields of Statistics and Artificial Intelligence. During the last decades several learning algorithms have been proposed to learn probability distributions based on decomposable models due to their advantageous theoretical properties. Some of these algorithms can be used to search for a maximum likelihood decomposable model with a given maximum clique size, k, which controls the complexity of the model. Unfortunately, the problem of learning a maximum likelihood decomposable model given a maximum clique size is NP-hard for k > 2. In this work, we propose a family of algorithms which approximates this problem with a computational complexity of O(k · n^2 log n) in the worst case, where n is the number of implied random variables. The structures of the decomposable models that solve the maximum likelihood problem are called maximal k-order decomposable graphs. Our proposals, called fractal trees, construct a sequence of maximal i-order decomposable graphs, for i = 2, ..., k, in k − 1 steps. At each step, the algorithms follow a divide-and-conquer strategy based on the particular features of this type of structures. Additionally, we propose a prune-and-graft procedure which transforms a maximal k-order decomposable graph into another one, increasing its likelihood. We have implemented two particular fractal tree algorithms called parallel fractal tree and sequential fractal tree. These algorithms can be considered a natural extension of Chow and Liu’s algorithm, from k = 2 to arbitrary values of k. Both algorithms have been compared against other efficient approaches in artificial and real domains, and they have shown a competitive behavior to deal with the maximum likelihood problem. Due to their low computational complexity they are especially recommended to deal with high dimensional domains.

Unilateral vs. Bilateral link-formation: Bridging the gap

We provide a model that bridges the gap between two benchmark models of strategic network formation: Jackson and Wolinsky' s model based on bilateral formation of links, and Bala and Goyal's two-way fl ow model, where links can be unilaterally formed. In the model introduced and studied here a link can be created unilaterally. When it is only supported by one of the two players the fl ow through the link suffers a certain decay, but when it is supported by both the fl ow runs without friction. When the decay in links supported by only one player is maximal (i.e. there is no flow) we have Jackson and Wolinsky 's connections model without decay, while when flow in such links is perfect we have Bala and Goyal' s two-way flow model. We study Nash, strict Nash and pairwise stability for the intermediate models. Efficiency and dynamics are also examined.

The cast net fishery, Kainji Lake, Nigeria 1970-1997

This study was carried out to establish trends in the cast net fishery of Kainji Lake, Nigeria. The cast net fishery was second in importance to the gillnet fishery in the early years after impoundment of the lake and still continues to be an important component of the fishery. Some of the economically important species such as Citharinus spp, Tilapia spp, Labeo spp, Alestes spp and Synodontis spp are exploited by cast nets. The study has not revealed any drastic perturbation in the species diversity, catch composition, and any real ecosystem overfishing. On the other hand, both the catfish, Auchenoglanis spp and the predator Hydrocynus spp appear to have increased in the catch in recent years. Never-the-less there is a decline in the mean weight of the major exploited fish species due to the capture of under sized fishes without allowing them to grow to 'legally' marketable sizes. The use of small meshed cast net and also fishing in the shallow waters of the lake can give rise to this situation. Thus, there are signs of growth overfishing in the fish stocks. It must also be acknowledged that the situation is complicated by the fact that in a multi-gear fishery as on Kainji Lake, the cast net fishery could not be managed in isolation without due regard to the other competing gears. The catch per unit of effort (CPUE) has declined in the cast net fishery possibly due to the increase in effort by the major fishing gears over the years. The ongoing extension campaigns by the KLFPP appears to be having the desired effect, as there was reduction in the number of the major fishing gears on the Lake in 1997. It can be anticipated that if this trend continues, the CPUE will recover in the long run. Yields observed from the mesh selectivity study revealed that for major species in the cast net fishery, both by number and weight, were maximal at 2.5 inch mesh, which contrasts with the fact that current minimum allowable mesh in the Fisheries Edict for the Lake is 2.0 inch. The adoption of 2.5 inch as the minimum allowable mesh in the cast net fishery is recommended to be included in future revision of existing regulations. It is also recommended that for this control to have a desired effect, the casting of the net from the shore should be prohibited so as to reduce the incidence of juvenile mortality in the nursery areas. (PDF contains 28 pages)

Response of multiple simultaneously recorded macaque area LIP neurons in a memory saccade task

Cells in the lateral intraparietal cortex (LIP) of rhesus macaques respond vigorously and in spatially-tuned fashion to briefly memorized visual stimuli. Responses to stimulus presentation, memory maintenance, and task completion are seen, in varying combination from neuron to neuron. To help elucidate this functional segmentation a new system for simultaneous recording from multiple neighboring neurons was developed. The two parts of this dissertation discuss the technical achievements and scientific discoveries, respectively.

Technology. Simultanous recordings from multiple neighboring neurons were made with four-wire bundle electrodes, or tetrodes, which were adapted to the awake behaving primate preparation. Signals from these electrodes were partitionable into a background process with a 1/f-like spectrum and foreground spiking activity spanning 300-6000 Hz. Continuous voltage recordings were sorted into spike trains using a state-of-the-art clustering algorithm, producing a mean of 3 cells per site. The algorithm classified 96% of spikes correctly when tetrode recordings were confirmed with simultaneous intracellular signals. Recording locations were verified with a new technique that creates electrolytic lesions visible in magnetic resonance imaging, eliminating the need for histological processing. In anticipation of future multi-tetrode work, the chronic chamber microdrive, a device for long-term tetrode delivery, was developed.

Science. Simultaneously recorded neighboring LIP neurons were found to have similar preferred targets in the memory saccade paradigm, but dissimilar peristimulus time histograms, PSTH). A majority of neighboring cell pairs had a difference in preferred directions of under 45° while the trial time of maximal response showed a broader distribution, suggesting homogeneity of tuning with het erogeneity of function. A continuum of response characteristics was present, rather than a set of specific response types; however, a mapping experiment suggests this may be because a given cell's PSTH changes shape as well as amplitude through the response field. Spike train autocovariance was tuned over target and changed through trial epoch, suggesting different mechanisms during memory versus background periods. Mean frequency-domain spike-to-spike coherence was concentrated below 50 Hz with a significant maximum of 0.08; mean time-domain coherence had a narrow peak in the range ±10 ms with a significant maximum of 0.03. Time-domain coherence was found to be untuned for short lags (10 ms), but significantly tuned at larger lags (50 ms).

Enhancing Kerr nonlinearity via spontaneously generated coherence

A theoretical investigation is carried out into the effect of spontaneously generated coherence on the Kerr nonlinearity of general three-level systems of Lambda, ladder, and V-shape types. It is found, with spontaneously generated coherence present, that the Kerr nonlinearity can be clearly enhanced. In the Lambda- and ladder-type systems, the maximal Kerr nonlinearity increases and at the same time enters the electromagnetically induced transparency window as the spontaneously generated coherence intensifies. As for the V-type system, the absorption property is significantly modified and therefore enhanced Kerr nonlinearity without absorption occurs for certain probe detunings. We attribute the enhancement of Kerr nonlinearity mainly to the presence of an extra atomic coherence induced by the spontaneously generated coherence.