Importance of oceanic resolution and mean state on the extra-tropical response to El Niño in a matrix of coupled models

The extra-tropical response to El Niño in configurations of a coupled model with increased horizontal resolution in the oceanic component is shown to be more realistic than in configurations with a low resolution oceanic component. This general conclusion is independent of the atmospheric resolution. Resolving small-scale processes in the ocean produces a more realistic oceanic mean state, with a reduced cold tongue bias, which in turn allows the atmospheric model component to be forced more realistically. A realistic atmospheric basic state is critical in order to represent Rossby wave propagation in response to El Niño, and hence the extra-tropical response to El Niño. Through the use of high and low resolution configurations of the forced atmospheric-only model component we show that, in isolation, atmospheric resolution does not significantly affect the simulation of the extra-tropical response to El Niño. It is demonstrated, through perturbations to the SST forcing of the atmospheric model component, that biases in the climatological SST field typical of coupled model configurations with low oceanic resolution can account for the erroneous atmospheric basic state seen in these coupled model configurations. These results highlight the importance of resolving small-scale oceanic processes in producing a realistic large-scale mean climate in coupled models, and suggest that it might may be possible to “squeeze out” valuable extra performance from coupled models through increases to oceanic resolution alone.

Demand response — a different form of distributed storage?

Reduced flexibility of low carbon generation could pose new challenges for future energy systems. Both demand response and distributed storage may have a role to play in supporting future system balancing. This paper reviews how these technically different, but functionally similar approaches compare and compete with one another. Household survey data is used to test the effectiveness of price signals to deliver demand responses for appliances with a high degree of agency. The underlying unit of storage for different demand response options is discussed, with particular focus on the ability to enhance demand side flexibility in the residential sector. We conclude that a broad range of options, with different modes of storage, may need to be considered, if residential demand flexibility is to be maximised.

A review of the costs and benefits of demand response for electricity in the UK

The recent policy discussion in the UK on the economic case for demand response (DR) calls for a reflection on available evidence regarding its costs and benefits. Existing studies tend to consider the size of investments and returns of certain forms of DR in isolation and do not consider economic welfare effects. From review of existing studies, policy documents, and some simple modelling of benefits of DR in providing reserve for unforeseen events, we demonstrate that the economic case for DR in UK electricity markets is positive. Consideration of economic welfare gains is provided.

Synthesis and properties of new Mo(II) complexes with N-heterocyclic and ferrocenyl ligands

New Mo(II) complexes with 2,2'-dipyridylamine (L1), [Mo(CH(3)CN)(eta(3)-C(3)H(5))(CO)(2)(L1)]OTf (C1a) and [{MoBr(eta(3)-C(3)H(5))(CO)(2)(L1)}(2)(4,4'-bipy)](PF(6))(2) (C1b), with {[bis(2-pyridyl)amino]carbonyl}ferrocene (L2), [MoBr(eta(3)-C(3)H(5))(CO)(2)(L2)] (C2), and with the new ligand N,N-bis(ferrocenecarbonyl)-2-aminopyridine (L3), [MoBr(eta(3)-C(3)H(5))(CO)(2)(L3)] (C3), were prepared and characterized by FTIR and (1)H and (13)C NMR spectroscopy. C1a, C1b, L3, and C2 were also structurally characterized by single crystal X-ray diffraction. The Mo(II) coordination sphere in all complexes features the facial arrangement of allyl and carbonyl ligands, with the axial isomer present in C1a and C2, and the equatorial in the binuclear C1b. In both C1a and C1b complexes, the L1 ligand is bonded to Mo(II) through the nitrogen atoms and the NH group is involved in hydrogen bonds. The X-ray single crystal structure of C2 shows that L2 is coordinated in a kappa(2)-N,N-bidentate chelating fashion. Complex C3 was characterized as [MoBr(eta(3)-C(3)H(5))(CO)(2)(L3)] with L3 acting as a kappa(2)-N,O-bidentate ligand, based on the spectroscopic data, complemented by DFT calculations. The electrochemical behavior of the monoferrocenyl and diferrocenyl ligands L2 and L3 has been studied together with that of their Mo(II) complexes C2 and C3. As much as possible, the nature of the different redox changes has been confirmed by spectrophotometric measurements. The nature of the frontier orbitals, namely the localization of the HOMO in Mo for both in C2 and C3, was determined by DFT studies.

Coming to grips with 'abandoned arable' land in efforts to enhance communal grazing systems in the Eastern Cape province, South Africa

The communal lands of the Eastern Cape have been regarded as both tools and problems by policy-makers. In particular, communal lands are problematised as environmentally degraded, of suboptimum productivity and constraining economic development. The Eastern Cape Communal Lands Research Project was framed within this policy discourse with the aim of introducing legume-based pasture into ‘abandoned arable lands’. Initial results from community workshops show that the institutional arrangements for these arable lands vary widely and, with them, the capacity to utilise any new technology that may have application to them. Rather than simply draw on social capital, if a participatory research approach is to enhance the agency of the participating communites, it may need to contribute to social capital building and especially to create a dialogical space in which the matters being researched can be discussed meaningfully.

A comparative study of satellite and ground-based phenology

Long time series of ground-based plant phenology, as well as more than two decades of satellite-derived phenological metrics, are currently available to assess the impacts of climate variability and trends on terrestrial vegetation. Traditional plant phenology provides very accurate information on individual plant species, but with limited spatial coverage. Satellite phenology allows monitoring of terrestrial vegetation on a global scale and provides an integrative view at the landscape level. Linking the strengths of both methodologies has high potential value for climate impact studies. We compared a multispecies index from ground-observed spring phases with two types (maximum slope and threshold approach) of satellite-derived start-of-season (SOS) metrics. We focus on Switzerland from 1982 to 2001 and show that temporal and spatial variability of the multispecies index correspond well with the satellite-derived metrics. All phenological metrics correlate with temperature anomalies as expected. The slope approach proved to deviate strongly from the temporal development of the ground observations as well as from the threshold-defined SOS satellite measure. The slope spring indicator is considered to indicate a different stage in vegetation development and is therefore less suited as a SOS parameter for comparative studies in relation to ground-observed phenology. Satellite-derived metrics are, however, very susceptible to snow cover, and it is suggested that this snow cover should be better accounted for by the use of newer satellite sensors.

The application of Regional Climate Model output for the simulation of high-mountain permafrost scenarios

This study investigates the possibilities and limitations of using Regional Climate Model (RCM) output for the simulation of alpine permafrost scenarios. It focuses on the general problem of scale mismatch between RCMs and impact models and, in particular, the special challenges that arise when driving an impact model in topographically complex high-mountain environments with the output of an RCM. Two approaches are introduced that take into account the special difficulties in such areas, and thus enable the use of RCM for alpine permafrost scenario modelling. Intended as an initial example, they are applied at the area of Corvatsch (Upper Engadine, Switzerland) in order to demonstrate and discuss the application of the two approaches, rather than to provide an assessment of future changes in permafrost occurrence. There are still many uncertainties and inaccuracies inherent in climate and impact models, which increase when driving one model with the output of the other. Nevertheless, our study shows that the use of RCMs offers new and promising perspectives for the simulation of high-mountain permafrost scenarios

Evaluation of water and energy budgets in regional climate models applied over Europe

Abstract This study presents a model intercomparison of four regional climate models (RCMs) and one variable resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) applied over Europe with special focus on the hydrological cycle and the surface energy budget. The models simulated the 15 years from 1979 to 1993 by using quasi-observed boundary conditions derived from ECMWF re-analyses (ERA). The model intercomparison focuses on two large atchments representing two different climate conditions covering two areas of major research interest within Europe. The first is the Danube catchment which represents a continental climate dominated by advection from the surrounding land areas. It is used to analyse the common model error of a too dry and too warm simulation of the summertime climate of southeastern Europe. This summer warming and drying problem is seen in many RCMs, and to a less extent in GCMs. The second area is the Baltic Sea catchment which represents maritime climate dominated by advection from the ocean and from the Baltic Sea. This catchment is a research area of many studies within Europe and also covered by the BALTEX program. The observed data used are monthly mean surface air temperature, precipitation and river discharge. For all models, these are used to estimate mean monthly biases of all components of the hydrological cycle over land. In addition, the mean monthly deviations of the surface energy fluxes from ERA data are computed. Atmospheric moisture fluxes from ERA are compared with those of one model to provide an independent estimate of the convergence bias derived from the observed data. These help to add weight to some of the inferred estimates and explain some of the discrepancies between them. An evaluation of these biases and deviations suggests possible sources of error in each of the models. For the Danube catchment, systematic errors in the dynamics cause the prominent summer drying problem for three of the RCMs, while for the fourth RCM this is related to deficiencies in the land surface parametrization. The AGCM does not show this drying problem. For the Baltic Sea catchment, all models similarily overestimate the precipitation throughout the year except during the summer. This model deficit is probably caused by the internal model parametrizations, such as the large-scale condensation and the convection schemes.

Predictability and uncertainty in a regional climate model

The evaluation of the quality and usefulness of climate modeling systems is dependent upon an assessment of both the limited predictability of the climate system and the uncertainties stemming from model formulation. In this study a methodology is presented that is suited to assess the performance of a regional climate model (RCM), based on its ability to represent the natural interannual variability on monthly and seasonal timescales. The methodology involves carrying out multiyear ensemble simulations (to assess the predictability bounds within which the model can be evaluated against observations) and multiyear sensitivity experiments using different model formulations (to assess the model uncertainty). As an example application, experiments driven by assimilated lateral boundary conditions and sea surface temperatures from the ECMWF Reanalysis Project (ERA-15, 1979–1993) were conducted. While the ensemble experiment demonstrates that the predictability of the regional climate varies strongly between different seasons and regions, being weakest during the summer and over continental regions, important sensitivities of the modeling system to parameterization choices are uncovered. In particular, compensating mechanisms related to the long-term representation of the water cycle are revealed, in which summer dry and hot conditions at the surface, resulting from insufficient evaporation, can persist despite insufficient net solar radiation (a result of unrealistic cloud-radiative feedbacks).

Simulated and observed fluxes of sensible and latent heat and CO2 at the WLEF-TV tower using SiB2.5

Three years of meteorological data collected at the WLEF-TV tower were used to drive a revised version of the Simple Biosphere (SiB 2.5) Model. Physiological properties and vegetation phenology were specified from satellite imagery. Simulated fluxes of heat, moisture, and carbon were compared to eddy covariance measurements taken onsite as a means of evaluating model performance on diurnal, synoptic, seasonal, and interannual time scales. The model was very successful in simulating variations of latent heat flux when compared to observations, slightly less so in the simulation of sensible heat flux. The model overestimated peak values of sensible heat flux on both monthly and diurnal scales. There was evidence that the differences between observed and simulated fluxes might be linked to wetlands near the WLEF tower, which were not present in the SiB simulation. The model overestimated the magnitude of the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 in both summer and winter. Mid-day maximum assimilation was well represented by the model, but late afternoon simulations showed excessive carbon uptake due to misrepresentation of within-canopy shading in the model. Interannual variability was not well simulated because only a single year of satellite imagery was used to parameterize the model.

Simulated variations in atmospheric CO2 over a Wisconsin forest using a coupled ecosystem-atmosphere model

Ecosystem fluxes of energy, water, and CO2 result in spatial and temporal variations in atmospheric properties. In principle, these variations can be used to quantify the fluxes through inverse modelling of atmospheric transport, and can improve the understanding of processes and falsifiability of models. We investigated the influence of ecosystem fluxes on atmospheric CO2 in the vicinity of the WLEF-TV tower in Wisconsin using an ecophysiological model (Simple Biosphere, SiB2) coupled to an atmospheric model (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System). Model parameters were specified from satellite imagery and soil texture data. In a companion paper, simulated fluxes in the immediate tower vicinity have been compared to eddy covariance fluxes measured at the tower, with meteorology specified from tower sensors. Results were encouraging with respect to the ability of the model to capture observed diurnal cycles of fluxes. Here, the effects of fluxes in the tower footprint were also investigated by coupling SiB2 to a high-resolution atmospheric simulation, so that the model physiology could affect the meteorological environment. These experiments were successful in reproducing observed fluxes and concentration gradients during the day and at night, but revealed problems during transitions at sunrise and sunset that appear to be related to the canopy radiation parameterization in SiB2.

Land-atmosphere energy exchange in Arctic tundra and boreal forest: available data and feedbacks to climate

This paper summarizes and analyses available data on the surface energy balance of Arctic tundra and boreal forest. The complex interactions between ecosystems and their surface energy balance are also examined, including climatically induced shifts in ecosystem type that might amplify or reduce the effects of potential climatic change. High latitudes are characterized by large annual changes in solar input. Albedo decreases strongly from winter, when the surface is snow-covered, to summer, especially in nonforested regions such as Arctic tundra and boreal wetlands. Evapotranspiration (QE) of high-latitude ecosystems is less than from a freely evaporating surface and decreases late in the season, when soil moisture declines, indicating stomatal control over QE, particularly in evergreen forests. Evergreen conifer forests have a canopy conductance half that of deciduous forests and consequently lower QE and higher sensible heat flux (QH). There is a broad overlap in energy partitioning between Arctic and boreal ecosystems, although Arctic ecosystems and light taiga generally have higher ground heat flux because there is less leaf and stem area to shade the ground surface, and the thermal gradient from the surface to permafrost is steeper. Permafrost creates a strong heat sink in summer that reduces surface temperature and therefore heat flux to the atmosphere. Loss of permafrost would therefore amplify climatic warming. If warming caused an increase in productivity and leaf area, or fire caused a shift from evergreen to deciduous forest, this would increase QE and reduce QH. Potential future shifts in vegetation would have varying climate feedbacks, with largest effects caused by shifts from boreal conifer to shrubland or deciduous forest (or vice versa) and from Arctic coastal to wet tundra. An increase of logging activity in the boreal forests appears to reduce QE by roughly 50% with little change in QH, while the ground heat flux is strongly enhanced.

Comparison of different boundary layer surface schemes using single point micrometeorological field data

 In the last decade, a vast number of land surface schemes has been designed for use in global climate models, atmospheric weather prediction, mesoscale numerical models, ecological models, and models of global changes. Since land surface schemes are designed for different purposes they have various levels of complexity in the treatment of bare soil processes, vegetation, and soil water movement. This paper is a contribution to a little group of papers dealing with intercomparison of differently designed and oriented land surface schemes. For that purpose we have chosen three schemes for classification: i) global climate models, BATS (Dickinson et al., 1986; Dickinson et al., 1992); ii) mesoscale and ecological models, LEAF (Lee, 1992) and iii) mesoscale models, LAPS (Mihailović, 1996; Mihailović and Kallos, 1997; Mihailović et al., 1999) according to the Shao et al. (1995) classification. These schemes were compared using surface fluxes and leaf temperature outputs obtained by time integrations of data sets derived from the micrometeorological measurements above a maize field at an experimental site in De Sinderhoeve (The Netherlands) for 18 August, 8 September, and 4 October 1988. Finally, comparison of the schemes was supported applying a simple statistical analysis on the surface flux outputs.