The Emperor Has New Clothes: Empirical Tests of Mainstream Theories of Economic Growth

Modern macroeconomic theory utilises optimal control techniques to model the maximisation of individual well-being using a lifetime utility function. Agents face choices over current and future consumption (with resultant implied savings decisions) seeking to maximise the present value of current plus future well-being. However, such inter-temporal welfare-maximising assumptions remain empirically untested. In the work presented here we test whether welfare was in (historical) fact maximised in the US between 1870-2000 and find empirical support for the optimising basis of growth theory, but only once a comprehensive view of what constitutes a country’s wealth or capital is taken into account.

Nowcasting Scottish GDP Growth

The delays in the release of macroeconomic variables such as GDP mean that policymakers do not know their current values. Thus, nowcasts, which are estimates of current values of macroeconomic variables, are becoming increasingly popular. This paper takes up the challenge of nowcasting Scottish GDP growth. Nowcasting in Scotland, currently a government office region within the United Kingdom, is complicated due to data limitations. For instance, key nowcast predictors such as industrial production are unavailable. Accordingly, we use data on some non-traditional variables and investigate whether UK aggregates can help nowcast Scottish GDP growth. Such data limitations are shared by many other sub-national regions, so we hope this paper can provide lessons for other regions interested in developing nowcasting models.

Are the high-growth recovery periods over?

We present evidence about the loss of the so-called "plucking effect", that is, a high-growth phase of the cycle typically observed at the end of recessions. This result matches the popular belief, presented informally by different authors, that the current recession will have permanent effects, or that the current recession will have an L shape versus the old-time recessions that have always had a V shape. Furthermore, we show that the loss of the "plucking effect" can explain part of the Great Moderation. We postulate that these two phenomena may be due to changes in inventory management brought about by improvements in information and communications technologies.

Asynchronous growth and competition in a two-sex age-structured population model

Asynchronous exponential growth has been extensively studied in population dynamics. In this paper we find out the asymptotic behaviour in a non-linear age-dependent model which takes into account sexual reproduction interactions. The main feature of our model is that the non-linear process converges to a linear one as the solution becomes large, so that the population undergoes asynchronous growth. The steady states analysis and the corresponding stability analysis are completely made and are summarized in a bifurcation diagram according to the parameter R0. Furthermore the effect of intraspecific competition is taken into account, leading to complex dynamics around steady states.

Impact of disease and treatments on growth and puberty of pediatric patients with inflammatory bowel disease.

Growth retardation, associated with delayed puberty, is a frequent feature in pediatric patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), especially with Crohn's disease. It is mainly induced by malnutrition and the effects of the inflammatory process on the growth hormone/insulin-like growth factor-1 axis or on the growth plate. Therefore, control of disease activity and mucosal healing are paramount to promote growth and adequate pubertal onset. Current therapeutic strategies for maintenance in IBD include anti-inflammatory drugs, immunosuppressives, and, more recently, biologic agents. Although these treatments are efficient in minimizing inflammation and inducing prolonged remission, their long-term effects on growth and final height remain controversial. Furthermore, glucocorticoid therapy, even though very efficient in inducing remission, clearly shows deleterious effects on growth, which is not the case for exclusive enteral nutrition showing comparable results regarding induction of remission. Thus regular assessment of weight, height and pubertal stage is essential in children and adolescents with chronic disease, namely IBD.

A two-sector growth model with institutional saving and investment

This paper develops a two-sector growth model in which institutional investors play a significant role. A necessary and sufficient condition is established under which these investors own the entire capital stock in the long run. The dependence of the long-run growth rate on the behaviour of such investors, and the effects of a productivity increase are analysed.

Coloration signals the ability to cope with elevated stress hormones: effects of corticosterone on growth of barn owls are associated with melanism.

Stressful situations during development can shape the phenotype for life by provoking a trade-off between development and survival. Stress hormones, mainly glucocorticoids, play an important orchestrating role in this trade-off. Hence, how stress sensitive an animal is critically determines the phenotype and ultimately fitness. In several species, darker eumelanic individuals are less sensitive to stressful conditions than less eumelanic conspecifics, which may be due to the pleiotropic effects of genes affecting both coloration and physiological traits. We experimentally tested whether the degree of melanin-based coloration is associated with the sensitivity to an endocrine response to stressful situations in the barn owl. We artificially administered the mediator of a hormonal stress response, corticosterone, to nestlings to examine the prediction that corticosterone-induced reduction in growth rate is more pronounced in light eumelanic nestlings than in darker nest mates. To examine whether such an effect may be genetically determined, we swapped hatchlings between randomly chosen pairs of nests. We first showed that corticosterone affects growth and, thus, shapes the phenotype. Second, we found that under corticosterone administration, nestlings with large black spots grew better than nestlings with small black spots. As in the barn owl the expression of eumelanin-based coloration is heritable and not sensitive to environmental conditions, it is therefore a reliable, genetically based sign of the ability to cope with an increase in blood corticosterone level.

Outcome of Patients with Platelet-Derived Growth Factor Receptor Alpha-Mutated Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors in the Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor Era.

PURPOSE: Platelet-derived growth factor receptor-alpha (PDGFRA) mutations are found in approximately 5% to 7% of advanced gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST). We sought to extensively assess the activity of imatinib in this subgroup. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We conducted an international survey among GIST referral centers to collect clinical data on patients with advanced PDGFRA-mutant GISTs treated with imatinib for advanced disease. RESULTS: Fifty-eight patients were included, 34 were male (59%), and median age at treatment initiation was 61 (range, 19-83) years. The primary tumor was gastric in 40 cases (69%). Thirty-two patients (55%) had PDGFRA-D842V substitutions whereas 17 (29%) had mutations affecting other codons of exon 18, and nine patients (16%) had mutation in other exons. Fifty-seven patients were evaluable for response, two (4%) had a complete response, eight (14%) had a partial response, and 23 (40%) had stable disease. None of 31 evaluable patients with D842V substitution had a response, whereas 21 of 31 (68%) had progression as their best response. Median progression-free survival was 2.8 [95% confidence interval (CI), 2.6-3.2] months for patients with D842V substitution and 28.5 months (95% CI, 5.4-51.6) for patients with other PDGFRA mutations. With 46 months of follow-up, median overall survival was 14.7 months for patients with D842V substitutions and was not reached for patients with non-D842V mutations. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the largest reported to date on patients with advanced PDGFRA-mutant GISTs treated with imatinib. Our data confirm that imatinib has little efficacy in the subgroup of patients with D842V substitution in exon 18, whereas other mutations appear to be sensitive to imatinib. Clin Cancer Res; 18(16); 4458-64. ©2012 AACR.

Small firms, growth and financial constraints

This paper analyses the impact of different sources of finance on the growth of firms. Using panel data from Spanish manufacturing firms for the period 2000-2006, we investigate the effects of internal and external finances on firm growth. In particular, we examine three dimensions of these financial sources: a) the performance of the firms’ capital structure in accordance with firm size; b) the effects of internal and external financial sources on growth performance; c) the combined effect of equity, external debt and cash flow on firm growth. We find that low-growth firms are sensitive to cash flow and short-term bank debt, while high-growth firms are more sensitive to long-term debt. Furthermore, equity capital seems to reduce barriers to external finance. Our main conclusion is that during the start-up phase, firms are unable to increase their financial leverage and so their capital structure fails to promote correct investment strategies. However, as their equity capital increases, alternative financial mechanisms, in particular long-term debt, become available, which have a positive impact on firm growth.

Drosophila Myc interacts with host cell factor (dHCF) to activate transcription and control growth.

The Myc proto-oncoproteins are transcription factors that recognize numerous target genes through hexameric DNA sequences called E-boxes. The mechanism by which they then activate the expression of these targets is still under debate. Here, we use an RNAi screen in Drosophila S2 cells to identify Drosophila host cell factor (dHCF) as a novel co-factor for Myc that is functionally required for the activation of a Myc-dependent reporter construct. dHCF is also essential for the full activation of endogenous Myc target genes in S2 cells, and for the ability of Myc to promote growth in vivo. Myc and dHCF physically interact, and they colocalize on common target genes. Furthermore, down-regulation of dHCF-associated histone acetyltransferase and histone methyltransferase complexes in vivo interferes with the Myc biological activities. We therefore propose that dHCF recruits such chromatin-modifying complexes and thereby contributes to the expression of Myc targets and hence to the execution of Myc biological activities.

Phytochrome interacting factors 4 and 5 control seedling growth in changing light conditions by directly controlling auxin signaling.

Plant growth is strongly influenced by the presence of neighbors that compete for light resources. In response to vegetational shading shade-intolerant plants such as Arabidopsis display a suite of developmental responses known as the shade-avoidance syndrome (SAS). The phytochrome B (phyB) photoreceptor is the major light sensor to mediate this adaptive response. Control of the SAS occurs in part with phyB, which controls protein abundance of phytochrome-interacting factors 4 and 5 (PIF4 and PIF5) directly. The shade-avoidance response also requires rapid biosynthesis of auxin and its transport to promote elongation growth. The identification of genome-wide PIF5-binding sites during shade avoidance revealed that this bHLH transcription factor regulates the expression of a subset of previously identified SAS genes. Moreover our study suggests that PIF4 and PIF5 regulate elongation growth by controlling directly the expression of genes that code for auxin biosynthesis and auxin signaling components.

Influence of temperature on survival, growth and fecundity of the freshwater snail Indoplanorbis exustus (Deshayes)

To note the effect of temperature on survival, growth and fecundity, newly hatched (zero day old) snails Indoplanorbis exustus were cultured at 10 degrees, 15 degrees, 20 degrees, 25 degrees, 30 degrees and 35 degreescentigrades constant temperatures and room temperature (17.5 degrees - 32.5 degrees centigrades). Individuals exposed to 10 degrees centigrades died within 3 days while those reared at 15 degrees, 20 degrees, 25 degrees, 30 degrees, 35 degrees centigrades and room temperature survived for a period of 6, 27, 18, 16, 12 and 17 weeks respectively. An individual added on an average 0.21 mm and 0.45 mg, 0.35 mm and 7.94 mg, 0.63 mm and 15.5 mg, 0.81 mm and 27.18 mg, 1.07 mm and 41.48 mg and 0.78 mm and 31.2 mg to the shell diameter and body weight respectively at those temperatures per week. The snails cultured at 15 degrees centigrades died prior to attainment of sexual maturity. On an average, an individual produced 31.9 and 582.77, 54.86 and 902.18, 56.01 and 968.45, 49.32 and 798.68 and 62.34 and 1143.97 capsules and eggs respectively at 20 degrees, 25 degrees, 30 degrees, 35 degrees centigrades and room temperature (17.5 degrees - 32.5 degrees centigrades).

Risk Attitude And Wage Growth: Replication And Reconstruction

We replicate Shaw (1996) who found that individual wage growth is higher for individuals with greater preference for risk taking. Expanding her dataset with more American observations and data for Germany, Spain and Italy, we find mixed support for the earlier results. We present and estimate a new model and find that in particular the wage level is sensitive to attitudes towards risk taking. Comments given at the Labour Economics Conference in honour of Niels Westergaard (Nyborg, August 2008) and EALE 2008 (Amsterdam) and at seminars in Maastricht,Reus and Essen (RWI) are gratefully acknowledged. The authors also acknowledge financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (grant number SEJ2007-66318) and from the Barcelona Economics Program of CREA. JEL code: J24; J30. Key words: wage growth, risk, post-school investment.