Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model

Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size-based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness-of-fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter-specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment.

Chaetopterid tubes from vent and seep sites: Implications for fossil record and evolutionary history of vent and seep annelids

Vestimentiferan tube worms living at deep-sea hydrothermal vents and cold seeps have been considered as a clade with a long and continuing evolutionary history in these ecosystems. Whereas the fossil record appears to support this view, molecular age estimates do not. The two main features that are used to identify vestimentiferan tubes in the fossil record are longitudinal ridges on the tube's surface and a tube wall constructed of multiple layers. It is shown here that chaetopterid tubes from modern vents and seeps—as well as a number of fossil tubes from shallow-water environments—also show these two features. This calls for a more cautious interpretation of tubular fossils from ancient vent and seep deposits. We suggest that: current estimates for a relatively young evolutionary age based on molecular clock methods may be more reliable than the inferences of ancient “vestimentiferans” based on putative fossils of these worms; not all of these putative fossils actually belong to this group; and that tubes from fossil seeps should be investigated for chitinous remains to substantiate claims of their potential siboglinid affinities.

Oxidative stress in lavage fluid of preterm infants at risk of chronic lung disease

There is evidence that oxidative stress plays a role in the development of chronic lung disease (CLD), with immature lungs being particularly sensitive to the injurious effect of oxygen and mechanical ventilation. We analyzed total ascorbate, urate, and protein carbonyls in 102 bronchoalveolar lavage fluid samples from 38 babies (33 preterm, 24–36 wk gestation; 5 term, 37–39 wk gestation). Preterm babies had significantly decreasing concentrations of ascorbate, urate, and protein carbonyls during the first 9 days of life (days 1–3, 4–6, and 7–9, Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA: P 5 0.016, P , 0.0001, and P 5 0.010, respectively). Preterm babies had significantly higher protein carbonyl concentrations at days 1–3 and 4–6 (P 5 0.005 and P 5 0.044) compared with term babies. Very preterm babies (24–28 wk gestation) had increased concentrations of protein carbonyls at days 4–6 (P 5 0.056) and significantly decreased ascorbate concentrations at days 4–6 (P 5 0.004) compared with preterm babies (29–36 wk gestation). Urate concentrations were significantly elevated at days 1–3 (P 5 0.023) in preterm babies who subsequently developed CLD. This study has shown the presence of oxidative stress in the lungs of preterm babies during ventilation, especially in those who subsequently developed CLD.