934 resultados para Long term foreign exchange forecasting
Resumo:
This study aimed to assess the efficacy of a rural community-based integrated intervention for early prevention and management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in China. This 18-year cluster-randomized controlled trial encompassing 15 villages included 1008 patients (454 men and 40 women in the intervention group [mean age, 54 ± 10 years]; 482 men and 32 women in the control group [mean age, 53 ± 10 years]) with confirmed COPD or at risk for COPD. Villages were randomly assigned to the intervention or the control group, and study participants residing within the villages received treatment accordingly. Intervention group patients took part in a program that included systematic health education, smoking cessation counseling, and education on management of COPD. Control group patients received usual care. The groups were compared after 18 years regarding the incidence of COPD, decline in lung function, and mortality of COPD. COPD incidence was lower in the intervention group than in the control group (10% vs 16%, <0.05). A decline in lung function was also significantly delayed in the intervention group compared to the control group of COPD and high-risk patients. The intervention group showed significant improvement in smoking cessation compared with the control group, and smokers in the intervention group had lower smoking indices than in the control group (350 vs 450, <0.05). The intervention group also had a significantly lower cumulative COPD-related death rate than the control group (37% vs 47%, <0.05). A rural community-based integrated intervention is effective in reducing the incidence of COPD among those at risk, delaying a decline in lung function in COPD patients and those at risk, and reducing mortality of COPD.
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Yacon (Smallanthus sonchifolius (Poepp. and Endl.) H. Robinson) is a storage root originally grown in the Andean highlands. The fresh roots are perishable and quickly turn brown during handling and processing. Aiming to prolong shelf-life and to preserve the antioxidant compounds in yacon roots, 3 mm thick yacon slices were dried in a drying cabinet at 40, 50, and 60 ºC to a moisture content of 10-14%, and yacon strips were sun dried to a moisture content of 15-20%. The total phenolic content was measured by the Folin-Ciocalteu method, and the quenching capacity was evaluated by measuring the amount of DPPH (1,1-diphenyl-2-pidrylhydrazyl) inhibited in samples after drying and after 7 months of storage. The results showed that it is possible to preserve the antioxidant capacity in yacon after cabinet or sun drying. Both yacon chips and strips presented total phenolic content values similar to those of fresh yacon roots. Both products also showed a high inhibition capacity of DPPH (1,1-diphenyl-2-pidrylhydrazyl). A significant decrease in the phenolic content was observed in the yacon chips after storage, which indicates that the sun dried strips are more suitable for storage.
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Dent's disease type 1 is an X-linked tubular disease caused by mutations in the renal chloride channel CLCN-5, and it is characterized by low molecular weight proteinuria, hypercalciuria, nephrocalcinosis, and renal failure. Several cases have been described in which the only presenting symptoms were asymptomatic proteinuria, and focal segmental or global glomerulosclerosis. The renal failure in these patients may be caused by hypercalciuria and persistent proteinuria. Therefore, angiotensin converse enzyme inhibitor and thiazides could be useful. Our aim is to report the effects of these drugs in two novel mutations patients with Dent's disease type 1. In this report, no significant correlations between dosage of hydrochlorothiazide and calciuria and no significant correlations between proteinuria and dosage of enalapril were detected. This is important since these are polyuric patients and these drugs could be dangerous to their renal function.
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INTRODUTION: Steroid resistant idiopathic nephrotic syndrome (SRINS) in children is one of the leading causes of progression to chronic kidney disease stage V (CKD V)/end stage renal disease (ESRD). OBJECTIVE: The aim of this retrospective study is to evaluate the efficacy of immunosuppressive drugs (IS) and to identify risk factors for progression to ESRD in this population. METHODS: Clinical and biochemical variables at presentation, early or late steroid resistance, histological pattern and response to cyclosporine A (CsA) and cyclophosfamide (CP) were reviewed in 136 children with SRINS. The analyzed outcome was the progression to ESRD. Univariate as well as multivariate Cox-regression analysis were performed. RESULTS: Median age at onset was 5.54 years (0.67-17.22) and median follow up time was 6.1 years (0.25-30.83). Early steroid-resistance was observed in 114 patients and late resistance in 22. Resistance to CP and CsA was 62.9% and 35% respectively. At last follow-up 57 patients reached ESRD. The renal survival rate was 71.5%, 58.4%, 55.3%, 35.6% and 28.5% at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years respectively. Univariate analysis demonstrated that older age at onset, early steroid-resistance, hematuria, hypertension, focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS), and resistance to IS were risk factors for ESRD. The Cox proportional-hazards regression identified CsAresistance and FSGS as the only predictors for ESRD. CONCLUSION: Our findings showed that CsA-resistance and FSGS were risk factors for ESRD.
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Climatic impacts of energy-peat extraction are of increasing concern due to EU emissions trading requirements. A new excavation-drier peat extraction method has been developed to reduce the climatic impact and increase the efficiency of peat extraction. To quantify and compare the soil GHG fluxes of the excavation drier and the traditional milling methods, as well as the areas from which the energy peat is planned to be extracted in the future (extraction reserve area types), soil CO2, CH4 and N2O fluxes were measured during 2006–2007 at three sites in Finland. Within each site, fluxes were measured from drained extraction reserve areas, extraction fields and stockpiles of both methods and additionally from the biomass driers of the excavation-drier method. The Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), described at a principal level in ISO Standards 14040:2006 and 14044:2006, was used to assess the long-term (100 years) climatic impact from peatland utilisation with respect to land use and energy production chains where utilisation of coal was replaced with peat. Coal was used as a reference since in many cases peat and coal can replace each other in same power plants. According to this study, the peat extraction method used was of lesser significance than the extraction reserve area type in regards to the climatic impact. However, the excavation-drier method seems to cause a slightly reduced climatic impact as compared with the prevailing milling method.
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This review will focus on long-term outcomes after acute kidney injury (AKI). Surviving AKI patients have a higher late mortality compared with those admitted without AKI. Recent studies have claimed that long-term mortality in patients after AKI varied from 15% to 74% and older age, presence of previous co-morbidities, and the incomplete recovery of renal function have been identified as risk factors for reduced survival. AKI is also associated with progression to chronic kidney (CKD) disease and the decline of renal function at hospital discharge and the number and severity of AKI episodes have been associated with progression to CKD. IN the most studies, recovery of renal function is defined as non-dependence on renal replacement therapy which is probably too simplistic and it is expected in 60-70% of survivors by 90 days. Further studies are needed to explore the long-term prognosis of AKI patients.
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Return and volatility dynamics in financial markets across the world have recently become important for the purpose of asset pricing, portfolio allocation and risk management. However, volatility, which come about as a result of the actions of market participants can help adapt to different situations and perform when it really matters. With recent development and liberalization among financial markets in emerging and frontier markets, the need for how the equity and foreign exchange markets interact and the extent to which return and volatility spillover are spread across countries is of importance to investors and policy makers at large. Financial markets in Africa have received attention leading to investors diversifying into them in times of crisis and contagion effects in developed countries. Regardless of the benefits these markets may offer, investors must be wary of issues such as thin trading, volatility that exists in the equity and currency markets and its related fluctuations. The study employs a VAR-GARCH BEKK model to study the return and volatility dynamics between the stock and foreign exchange sectors and among the equity markets of Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa and Tunisia. The main findings suggest a higher dependence of own return in the stock markets and a one way return spillover from the currencies to the equity markets except for South Africa which has a weaker interrelation among the two markets. There is a relatively limited integration among the equity markets. Return and volatility spillover is mostly uni-directional except for a bi-directional relationship between the equity markets of Egypt and Tunisia. The study implication still proves a benefit for portfolio managers diversifying in these African equity markets, since they are independent of each other and may not be highly affected by the influx of negative news from elsewhere. However, there is the need to be wary of return and volatility spillover between the equity and currency markets, hence devising better hedging strategies to curb them.
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Fluctuating commodity prices, foreign exchange rates and interest rates are causing changes in cash flows, market value and the companies’ profit. Most of the commodities are quoted in US dollar. Companies with non-dollar accounting face a double risk in the form of the commodity price risk and foreign exchange risk. The objective of this Master’s thesis is to find out how companies under commodity should manage foreign exchange exposure. The theoretical literature is based on foreign exchange risk, commodity risk and foreign exchange exposure management. The empirical research is done by using constructive modelling of a case company in the oil industry. The exposure is model with foreign exchange net cash flow and net working capital. First, the factors affecting foreign exchange exposure in case company are analyzed, then a model of foreign exchange exposure is created. Finally, the models are compared and the most suitable method is defined. According to the literature, foreign exchange exposure is the foreign exchange net cash flow. However, the results of the study show that foreign exchange risk can be managed also with net working capital. When the purchases, sales and storage are under foreign exchange risk, the best way to manage foreign exchange exposure is with combined net cash flow and net working capital method. The foreign exchange risk policy of the company defines the appropriate way to manage foreign exchange risk.
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The authors of this paper assert that the paralysis of the state generated by the crises of the 1970s and 1980s deprived the economies of the region of an important lever to resume and sustain growth. They thus maintain that to overcome stagnation it will be necessary to reconstruct the state's capacity to implement pro-growth policies. Following Keynes and Kalecki's ideas, but also classical development economists, the authors argue, first, that short-term macroeconomic policies, to reduce unemployment and to increase the degree of capacity utilization, should be used to promote the generation of profits to firms and to wake up entrepreneurs' animal spirits. Short-term expansionary policies should be coupled with measures to improve competitiveness and avoid balance of payments problems. They also claim that alternatives to the liberal programme will fail unless a pro-growth strategy is adopted which includes both short- and long-term policies. They thus propose that long-term policies must complete the package, signaling: a) sustained increases of effective demand in the future; and b) investment priorities to ensure that capacities will be created in strategic sectors and branches of the economy.
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Automotive industry has faced intense consolidation pressure, which has lead to increasing number of M&As. However, empirical evidence has given controversial results suggesting that most of M&As are value destructive for acquiring companies and for acquiring companies’ shareholders. The objective of this master’s thesis is to examine how acquiring companies’ shareholders react to acquisition announcement and is the reaction in line with the long-term performance. This study uses empirical evidence from automotive industry, which has been characterized as an industry that holds large amount of vertical and horizontal synergies. Transaction data consists of 65 acquisitions made by publicly listed companies between 2008-2010. The short-term impact is tested by applying event study methodology while the long term operative performance is examined with accounting study methodology. The event study results indicate that during the three days after acquisition (t= 0-2), the acquiring firms’ stocks generate an abnormal return of 1.22% on average across all acquisitions. When long term performance is studied it is evident that acquiring companies perform better than the industry median pre- and post-transaction but there is no statistically significant evidence that the performance has increased. The only performance ratio indicating statistically significant decrease is Return on Equity (ROE). On long-term horizontal acquisitions seem to outperform conglomerate ones but otherwise deal characteristics do not have any statistically significant impact.
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Herpes simplex -virus 1 (HSV-1) ja ihmisen papilloomavirus (HPV) infektoivat suun epiteelisoluja. Useimmissa tapauksissa näiden virusten infektio on kliinisesti oireeton. Suun limakalvojen oireeton HPV-infektio on aikuisilla yleinen, ja valtaosa näistä infektioista ovat ohimeneviä ja vain pieni osa johtaa krooniseen HPV-infektioon. Krooninen HPV-infektio lisää riskiä epiteelisolujen transformoitumiseen kohti syöpäsolua. HPV infektio ei ole yksinään riittävä aiheuttamaan syöpäsolun, vaan siihen tarvitaan myös muita riskitekijöitä.. Muut infektiot, kuten esimerkiksi HSV-1-infektio saattaa olla yksi näistä riskitekijöistä. Tämän syventävän opinnäytetyön tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää HSV-1-infektion esiintymistä naisten suun limakalvonäytteissä kuuden vuoden seurannassa. Toinen tavoitteemme oli selvittää HSV-1 ja HPV -yhteisinfektion esiintymistä suun epiteelisoluissa, erityisesti naisilla joilla havaittiin suun krooninen HPV-infektio. Tämä tutkimus on osa kuusivuotista seurantatutkimusta (Finnish Family HPV -tutkimus), joka suunniteltiin selvittämään HPV-infektioiden dynamiikkaa ja riskitekijöitä 329 suomalaisperheessä. Suun limakalvoilta otettiin harjausnäyte ennen synnytystä ja kuusi kertaa synnytyksen jälkeen kuuden vuoden aikana. Näytteistä eristettyä DNA:ta oli saatavilla riittävästi HSV-1-analyysiä varten yhteensä 304 naiselta (keski-ikä 25.6 vuotta). Kaikkiaan tutkittavia näytteitä oli 1,873, joista HSV-1:n esiintyminen tutkittiin käyttäen kvantitatiivista PCR:ää. Lisäksi epävarmat PCR-tulokset varmistettiin PCR-tuotteen Southern Blot hybridisaatiolla. HSV-1 tuloksia verrattiin aikaisemmin saatuihin HPV-tuloksiin. Suun limakalvonäytteistä 2.2% oli HSV-1-positiivisia ja 19.6% oli HPV-positiivisia. Yhteensä 11.8%:lla äideistä suunäyte oli HSV-1-DNA -positiivinen ainakin kerran seurannan aikana. HSV-1 ja HPV -yhteisinfektio löydettiin vain neljältä äidiltä. Suurin osa äideistä, jotka olivat HSV-1-positiivisia ennen syntymää, pysyivät HSV-1-positiivisina myös synnytyksen jälkeen. Kolmella naisella todettiin persistentti HPV-16 infektio ja kahdella heistä oli samanaikainen HSV-1 infektio. Tuloksemme osoittaa, että HSV-1:n ja HPV:n esiintyminen yhtä aikaa nuorten naisten suun limakalvolla on harvinaista. On suositeltavaa, että yhteisinfektion omaavia äitejä seurataan myös tulevaisuudessa, sillä HSV-1-infektio saattaa olla yksi riskitekijä suun limakalvon malignissa muutoksessa kroonisen HPV-infektion yhteydessä.
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The purpose of the current undertaking was to study the electrophysiological properties of the sleep onset period (SOP) in order to gain understanding into the persistent sleep difficulties of those who complain of insomnia following mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI). While many believe that symptoms of post concussion syndrome (PCS) following MTBI resolve within 6 to 12 months, there are a number of people who complain of persistent sleep difficulty. Two models were proposed which hypothesize alternate electrophysiological presentations of the insomnia complaints of those sustaining a MTBI: 1) Analyses of standard polysomnography (PSG) sleep parameters were conducted in order to determine if the sleep difficulties of the MTBI population were similar to that of idiopathic insomniacs (i.e. greater proportion ofREM sleep, reduced delta sleep); 2) Power spectral analysis was conducted over the SOP to determine if the sleep onset signature of those with MTBI would be similar to psychophysiological insomniacs (characterized by increased cortical arousal). Finally, exploratory analyses examined whether the sleep difficulties associated with MTBI could be explained by increases in variability of the power spectral data. Data were collected from 9 individuals who had sustained a MTBI 6 months to 5 years earlier and reported sleep difficulties that had arisen within the month subsequent to injury and persisted to the present. The control group consisted of 9 individuals who had experienced neither sleep difficulties, nor MTBI. Previous to spending 3 consecutive uninterrupted nights in the sleep lab, subjects completed questionnaires regarding sleep difficulties, adaptive functioning, and personality.
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This exploratory descriptive study described what 20 care providers in 5 long-term care facilities perceived to aid or hinder their learning in a work-sponsored learning experience. A Critical Incident Technique (Woolsey, 1986) was the catalyst for the interviews with the culturally and professionally diverse participants. Through data analysis, as described by Moustakas (1994), I found that (a) humour, (b) the learning environment, (c) specific characteristics of the presenter such as moderate pacing, speaking slowly and with simple words, (d) decision-making authority, (e) relevance to practice, and (f) practical applications best met the study participants' learning needs. Conversely, other factors could hinder learning based on the participants' perceptions. These were: (a) other presenter characteristics such as a program that was delivered quickly or spoken at a level above the participants' comprehension, (b) no perceived relevance to practice, (c), other environmental situations, and (d) the timing of the learning session. One of my intentions was to identify the emic view among cultural groups and professional/vocational affiliations. A surprising finding of this study was that neither impacted noticeably on the perceived learning needs of the participants. Further research with a revised research design to facilitate inclusion of more diverse participants will aid in determining if the lack of a difference was unique to this sample or more generalizable on a case-to-case transfer basis to the study population.
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The purpose of this study was to evaluate the oral health status of residents residing in 2 long-term care facilities and determine if dental hygiene education was required in order to improve their current oral health. The oral health status of 6 independent and 4 dependent individuals residing in 2 long-term care facilities was evaluated. In addition, the current oral health and disease prevention practices employed by 4 caregivers who were responsible for providing oral care to dependent residents in the long-term care facilities were evaluated. Furthermore, an evaluation of the oral care practices of independent residents who were responsible for providing their own care was conducted. Finally, the challenges that caregivers and independent residents faced when performing oral care were determined, and methodological changes were proposed. Using a generic qualitative research methodology, data collection was comprised of semi structured interviews, field observations, and documentation. The oral health status of the residents was reevaluated 3 months later. The findings of this study demonstrated an increase in plaque accumulation, gingival inflammation, and unhealthy gingival tissue colour changes among the residents over the 3-month period. The study revealed that poor oral health among the residents was a result of inadequate oral hygiene care techniques, difficulties accessing oral health care, financial limitations, insufficient care staff, insufficient time for personal care duties, lack of professional development, minimal interprofessional collaboration of health disciplines, and lack of perseverance on the part of the caregivers and residents. Overall, oral health is essential, and maintaining optimal oral health requires increased collaboration and communication between health care providers.
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The aim of this study was to investigate the neural correlates of operant conditioning in a semi-intact preparation of the pond snail, Lymnaea stagnalis. Lymnaea learns, via operant conditioning, to reduce its aerial respiratory behaviour in response to an aversive tactile stimulus to its open pneumostome. This thesis demonstrates the successful conditioning of na'ive semiintact preparations to show learning in the dish. Furthermore, these conditioned preparations show long-term memory that persists for at least 18 hours. As the neurons that generate this behaviour have been previously identified I can, for the first time, monitor neural activity during both learning and long-term memory consolidation in the same preparation. In particular, I record from the respiratory neuron Right Pedal Dorsal 1 (RPeD 1) which is part of the respiratory central pattern generator. In this study, I demonstrate that preventing RPeDl impulse activity between training sessions reduces the number of sessions needed to produce long-term memory in the present semi-intact preparation.