Severity of driver injury and vehicle damage in traffic crashes at intersections: A Bayesian hierarchical analysis

Most crash severity studies ignored severity correlations between driver-vehicle units involved in the same crashes. Models without accounting for these within-crash correlations will result in biased estimates in the factor effects. This study developed a Bayesian hierarchical binomial logistic model to identify the significant factors affecting the severity level of driver injury and vehicle damage in traffic crashes at signalized intersections. Crash data in Singapore were employed to calibrate the model. Model fitness assessment and comparison using Intra-class Correlation Coefficient (ICC) and Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) ensured the suitability of introducing the crash-level random effects. Crashes occurring in peak time, in good street lighting condition, involving pedestrian injuries are associated with a lower severity, while those in night time, at T/Y type intersections, on right-most lane, and installed with red light camera have larger odds of being severe. Moreover, heavy vehicles have a better resistance on severe crash, while crashes involving two-wheel vehicles, young or aged drivers, and the involvement of offending party are more likely to result in severe injuries.

Performance characteristics of compound curved sandwich shell structures

Sandwich shells have recently emerged as aesthetically pleasing, efficient and economical structural systems, with a number of applications. They combine the advantages of sandwich layer technology together with those of shell action. With different materials and thicknesses used in the sandwich layers, their performance characteristics largely remain un-quantified and there are no guidelines at present for their design. This research paper provides verification, through finite element modeling and testing, for the application of this technology to dome styled dwellings with research currently being conducted into the further application to roofing and floor structures.

Developing targeted countermeasures to improve motorcycle safety

The fatality and injury rate of motorcyclists per registered vehicle are higher than those of other motor vehicles by 13 and 7 times respectively. The crash involvement rate of motorcyclists as a victim party is 58% at intersections and as an offending party is 67% at expressways. Previous research efforts showed that the motorcycle safety programs are not very effective in improving motorcycle safety. This is perhaps due to inefficient design of safety program as specific causal factors may not be well explored. The objective of this study is to propose more sophisticated countermeasures and awareness programs for improving motorcycle safety after analyzing specific causal factors for motorcycle crashes at intersections and expressways. Methodologically this study applies the binary logistic model to explore the at-fault or not-at-fault crash involvement of motorcyclists at those locations. A number of explanatory variables representing roadway characteristics, environmental factors, motorcycle descriptions, and rider demographics have been evaluated. Results shows that the night time crash occurrence, presence of red light camera, lane position, rider age, licence class, and multivehicle collision significantly affect the fault of motorcyclists involved in crashes at intersections. On the other hand, the night time crash occurrence, lane position, speed limit, rider age, licence class, engine capacity, riding with pillion passenger, foreign registered motorcycles, and multivehicle collision has been found to be significant at expressways. Legislate to wear reflective clothes and using reflective markings on the motorcycles and helmets are suggested as an effective countermeasure for reducing their vulnerability. The red light cameras at intersections reduce the vulnerability of motorcycles and hence motorcycle flow and motorcycle crashes should be considered during installation of red light cameras. At signalized intersections, motorcyclists may be taught to follow correct movement and queuing rather than weaving through the traffic as it leads them to become victims of other motorists. The riding simulators in the training centers can be useful to demonstrate the proper movement and queuing at junctions. Riding with pillion passenger and excess speed at expressways are found to significantly influence the at at-fault crash involvement of the motorcyclists. Hence the motorcyclists should be advised to concentrate more on riding while riding with pillion passenger and encouraged to avoid excess speed at expressways. Very young and very older group of riders are found to be at-fault than middle aged groups. Hence this group of riders should be targeted for safety improvement. This can be done by arranging safety talks and programs in motorcycling clubs in colleges and universities as well as community riding clubs with high proportion of elderly riders. It is recommended that the driving centers may use the findings of this study to include in licensure program to make motorcyclists more aware of the different factors which expose the motorcyclists to crash risks so that more defensive riding may be needed.

Effects of Mobile Phone Distraction at the Onset of Amber Light: Analysis of Driving Simulator Data

Distraction whilst driving on an approach to a signalized intersection is particularly dangerous, as potential vehicular conflicts and resulting angle collisions tend to be severe. This study examines the decisions of distracted drivers during the onset of amber lights. Driving simulator data were obtained from a sample of 58 drivers under baseline and handheld mobile phone conditions at the University of IOWA - National Advanced Driving Simulator. Explanatory variables include age, gender, cell phone use, distance to stop-line, and speed. An iterative combination of decision tree and logistic regression analyses are employed to identify main effects, non-linearities, and interactions effects. Results show that novice (16-17 years) and younger (18-25 years) drivers’ had heightened amber light running risk while distracted by cell phone, and speed and distance thresholds yielded significant interaction effects. Driver experience captured by age has a multiplicative effect with distraction, making the combined effect of being inexperienced and distracted particularly risky. Solutions are needed to combat the use of mobile phones whilst driving.

Assessment of the health impacts of the 2011 summer floods in Brisbane

Background: During December 2010 and January 2011, torrential rainfall in Queensland resulted in the worst flooding in over 50 years. We carried out a community-based survey to assess the health impacts of this flooding in the city of Brisbane. Methods: A community-based survey was conducted in 12 flood-affected electorates using postal questionnaires. A random sample of residents in these areas was drawn from electoral rolls. Questions examined sociodemographic information, the direct impact of flooding on the household, and perceived flood-related health impacts. Outcome variables included perceived flood-related effects on overall and respiratory health, along with mental health outcomes measured by psychosocial distress, reduced sleep quality and probable post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the association between flooding and health outcome variables, adjusted for current health status and socioeconomic factors. Results: 3000 residents were invited to participate in this survey, with 960 responses (32%). People whose households were directly impacted by flooding had a decrease in perceived overall health (OR 5.3, 95% CI: 2.8–10.2), along with increases in psychological distress (OR 1.9, 1.1–3.5), decreased sleep quality (OR 2.3, 1.2–4.4), and probable PTSD (OR 2.3, 1.2–4.5). Residents were also more likely to increase usage of both tobacco (OR 6.3, 2.4–16.8) and alcohol (OR 7.0, 2.2–22.3) after flooding. Conclusions: There were significant impacts of flood events on residents’ health, in particular psychosocial health. Improved support strategies may need to be integrated into existing disaster management programs to reduce flood-related health impacts.

The influence of smoking status on malnutrition risk and 1-year mortality in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Introduction:  Smoking status in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been associated with a low body mass index (BMI) and reduced mid-arm muscle circumference (Cochrane & Afolabi, 2004). Individuals with COPD identified as malnourished have also been found to be twice as likely to die within 1 year compared to non-malnourished patients (Collins et al., 2010). Although malnutrition is both preventable and treatable, it is not clear what influence current smoking status, another modifiable risk factor, has on malnutrition risk. The current study aimed to establish the influence of smoking status on malnutrition risk and 1-year mortality in outpatients with COPD. Methods:  A prospective nutritional screening survey was carried out between July 2008 and May 2009 at a large teaching hospital (Southampton General Hospital) and a smaller community hospital within Hampshire (Lymington New Forest Hospital). In total, 424 outpatients with a diagnosis of COPD were routinely screened using the ‘Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool’, ‘MUST’ (Elia, 2003); 222 males, 202 females; mean (SD) age 73 (9.9) years; mean (SD) BMI 25.9 (6.4) kg m−2. Smoking status on the date of screening was obtained for 401 of the outpatients. Severity of COPD was assessed using the GOLD criteria, and social deprivation determined using the Index of Multiple Deprivation (Nobel et al., 2008). Results:  The overall prevalence of malnutrition (medium + high risk) was 22%, with 32% of current smokers at risk (who accounted for 19% of the total COPD population). In comparison, 19% of nonsmokers and ex-smokers were likely to be malnourished [odds ratio, 1.965; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.133–3.394; P = 0.015]. Smoking status remained an independent risk factor for malnutrition even after adjustment for age, social deprivation and disease-severity (odds ratio, 2.048; 95% CI, 1.085–3.866; P = 0.027) using binary logistic regression. After adjusting for age, disease severity, social deprivation, smoking status, malnutrition remained a significant predictor of 1-year mortality [odds ratio (medium + high risk versus low risk), 2.161; 95% CI, 1.021–4.573; P = 0.044], whereas smoking status did not (odds ratio for smokers versus ex-smokers + nonsmokers was 1.968; 95% CI, 0.788–4.913; P = 0.147). Discussion:  This study highlights the potential importance of combined nutritional support and smoking cessation in order to treat malnutrition. The close association between smoking status and malnutrition risk in COPD suggests that smoking is an important consideration in the nutritional management of malnourished COPD outpatients. Conclusions:  Smoking status in COPD outpatients is a significant independent risk factor for malnutrition and a weaker (nonsignificant) predictor of 1-year mortality. Malnutrition significantly predicted 1 year mortality. References:  Cochrane, W.J. & Afolabi, O.A. (2004) Investigation into the nutritional status, dietary intake and smoking habits of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. J. Hum. Nutr. Diet.17, 3–11. Collins, P.F., Stratton, R.J., Kurukulaaratchym R., Warwick, H. Cawood, A.L. & Elia, M. (2010) ‘MUST’ predicts 1-year survival in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Clin. Nutr.5, 17. Elia, M. (Ed) (2003) The ‘MUST’ Report. BAPEN. http://www.bapen.org.uk (accessed on March 30 2011). Nobel, M., McLennan, D., Wilkinson, K., Whitworth, A. & Barnes, H. (2008) The English Indices of Deprivation 2007. http://www.communities.gov.uk (accessed on March 30 2011).

Deprivation is an independent predictor of 1-year mortality in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Deprivation is linked to increased incidence in a number of chronic diseases but its relationship to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is uncertain despite suggestions that the socioeconomic gradient seen in COPD is as great, if not greater, than any other disease (Prescott and Vestbo).1 There is also a need to take into account the confounding effects of malnutrition which have been shown to be independently linked to increased mortality (Collins et al).2 The current study investigated the influence of social deprivation on 1-year survival rates in COPD outpatients, independently of malnutrition. 424 outpatients with COPD were routinely screened for malnutrition risk using the ‘Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool’; ‘MUST’ (Elia),3 between July and May 2009; 222 males and 202 females; mean age 73 (SD 9.9) years; body mass index 25.8 (SD 6.3) kg/m2. Each individual's deprivation was calculated using the index of multiple deprivation (IMD) which was established according to the geographical location of each patient's address (postcode). IMD includes a number of indicators covering economic, housing and social issues (eg, health, education and employment) into a single deprivation score (Nobel et al).4 The lower the IMD score, the lower an individual's deprivation. The IMD was assigned to each outpatient at the time of screening and related to1-year mortality from the date screened. Outpatients who died within 1-year of screening were significantly more likely to reside within a deprived postcode (IMD 19.7±SD 13.1 vs 15.4±SD 10.7; p=0.023, OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.06) than those that did not die. Deprivation remained a significant independent risk factor for 1-year mortality even when adjusted for malnutrition as well as age, gender and disease severity (binary logistic regression; p=0.008, OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.07). Deprivation was not associated with disease-severity (p=0.906) or body mass index, kg/m2 (p=0.921) using ANOVA. This is the first study to show that deprivation, assessed using IMD, is associated with increased 1-year mortality in outpatients with COPD independently of malnutrition, age and disease severity. Deprivation should be considered in the targeted management of these patients.

Prevalence and risk factors of childhood allergic diseases in eight metropolitan cities in China: A multicenter study

Background Several studies conducted during the past two decades suggested increasing trend of childhood allergic diseases in China. However, few studies have provided detailed description of geographic variation and explored risk factors of these diseases. This study investigated the pattern and risk factors of asthma, allergic rhinitis and eczema in eight metropolitan cities in China. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional survey during November-December 2005 in eight metropolitan cities in China. A total of 23791 children aged 6-13 years participated in this survey. Questions from the standard questionnaire of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Children (ISAAC) were used to examine the pattern of current asthma, allergic rhinitis and eczema. Logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the risk factors for childhood allergies. Results The average prevalence of childhood asthma, allergic rhinitis and eczema across the eight cities was 3∙3% (95% Confidence interval (CI): 3∙1%, 3∙6%), 9∙8% (95% CI: 9∙4%, 10∙2%) and 5∙5% (95% CI: 5∙2%, 5∙8%), respectively. Factors related to lifestyle, mental health and socio-economic status were found to be associated with the prevalence of childhood allergies. These risk factors were unevenly distributed across cities and disproportionately affected the local prevalence. Conclusions There was apparent geographic variation of childhood allergies in China. Socio-environmental factors had strong impacts on the prevalence of childhood allergies; but these impacts differed across regions. Thus public health policies should specifically target at the local risk factors for each individual area.

Food insecurity among Australian children : potential determinants, health and developmental consequences

Children in food-insecure households may be at risk of poor health, developmental or behavioural problems. This study investigated the associations between food insecurity, potential determinants and health and developmental outcomes among children. Data on household food security, socio-demographic characteristics and children’s weight, health and behaviour were collected from households with children aged 3–17 years in socioeconomically disadvantaged suburbs by mail survey using proxy-parental reports (185 households). Data were analysed using logistic regression. Approximately one-in-three households (34%) were food insecure. Low household income was associated with an increased risk of food insecurity [odds ratio (OR), 16.20; 95% confidence interval (CI), 3.52–74.47]. Children with a parent born outside of Australia were less likely to experience food insecurity (OR, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.19–0.93). Children in food-insecure households were more likely to miss days from school or activities (OR, 3.52; 95% CI, 1.46–8.54) and were more likely to have borderline or atypical emotional symptoms (OR, 2.44; 95% CI, 1.11–5.38) or behavioural difficulties (OR, 2.35; 95% CI, 1.04–5.33). Food insecurity may be prevalent among socioeconomically disadvantaged households with children. The potential developmental consequences of food insecurity during childhood may result in serious adverse health and social implications.

Validation of a new hand-held electronic data capture method for continuous monitoring of subjective appetite sensations

Background When large scale trials are investigating the effects of interventions on appetite, it is paramount to efficiently monitor large amounts of human data. The original hand-held Electronic Appetite Ratings System (EARS) was designed to facilitate the administering and data management of visual analogue scales (VAS) of subjective appetite sensations. The purpose of this study was to validate a novel hand-held method (EARS II (HP® iPAQ)) against the standard Pen and Paper (P&P) method and the previously validated EARS. Methods Twelve participants (5 male, 7 female, aged 18-40) were involved in a fully repeated measures design. Participants were randomly assigned in a crossover design, to either high fat (>48% fat) or low fat (<28% fat) meal days, one week apart and completed ratings using the three data capture methods ordered according to Latin Square. The first set of appetite sensations was completed in a fasted state, immediately before a fixed breakfast. Thereafter, appetite sensations were completed every thirty minutes for 4h. An ad libitum lunch was provided immediately before completing a final set of appetite sensations. Results Repeated measures ANOVAs were conducted for ratings of hunger, fullness and desire to eat. There were no significant differences between P&P compared with either EARS or EARS II (p > 0.05). Correlation coefficients between P&P and EARS II, controlling for age and gender, were performed on Area Under the Curve ratings. R2 for Hunger (0.89), Fullness (0.96) and Desire to Eat (0.95) were statistically significant (p < 0.05). Conclusions EARS II was sensitive to the impact of a meal and recovery of appetite during the postprandial period and is therefore an effective device for monitoring appetite sensations. This study provides evidence and support for further validation of the novel EARS II method for monitoring appetite sensations during large scale studies. The added versatility means that future uses of the system provides the potential to monitor a range of other behavioural and physiological measures often important in clinical and free living trials.

An exploration of affine group laws for elliptic curves

Several forms of elliptic curves are suggested for an efficient implementation of Elliptic Curve Cryptography. However, a complete description of the group law has not appeared in the literature for most popular forms. This paper presents group law in affine coordinates for three forms of elliptic curves. With the existence of the proposed affine group laws, stating the projective group law for each form becomes trivial. This work also describes an automated framework for studying elliptic curve group law, which is applied internally when preparing this work.

Risk of metabolic syndrome among children living in metropolitan Kuala Lumpur: A case control study

Background With the increasing prevalence of childhood obesity, the metabolic syndrome has been studied among children in many countries but not in Malaysia. Hence, this study aimed to compare metabolic risk factors between overweight/obese and normal weight children and to determine the influence of gender and ethnicity on the metabolic syndrome among school children aged 9-12 years in Kuala Lumpur and its metropolitan suburbs. Methods A case control study was conducted among 402 children, comprising 193 normal-weight and 209 overweight/obese. Weight, height, waist circumference (WC) and body composition were measured, and WHO (2007) growth reference was used to categorise children into the two weight groups. Blood pressure (BP) was taken, and blood was drawn after an overnight fast to determine fasting blood glucose (FBG) and full lipid profile, including triglycerides (TG), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and total cholesterol (TC). International Diabetes Federation (2007) criteria for children were used to identify metabolic syndrome. Results Participants comprised 60.9% (n = 245) Malay, 30.9% (n = 124) Chinese and 8.2% (n = 33) Indian. Overweight/obese children showed significantly poorer biochemical profile, higher body fat percentage and anthropometric characteristics compared to the normal-weight group. Among the metabolic risk factors, WC ≥90th percentile was found to have the highest odds (OR = 189.0; 95%CI 70.8, 504.8), followed by HDL-C≤1.03 mmol/L (OR = 5.0; 95%CI 2.4, 11.1) and high BP (OR = 4.2; 95%CI 1.3, 18.7). Metabolic syndrome was found in 5.3% of the overweight/obese children but none of the normal-weight children (p < 0.01). Overweight/obese children had higher odds (OR = 16.3; 95%CI 2.2, 461.1) of developing the metabolic syndrome compared to normal-weight children. Binary logistic regression showed no significant association between age, gender and family history of communicable diseases with the metabolic syndrome. However, for ethnicity, Indians were found to have higher odds (OR = 5.5; 95%CI 1.5, 20.5) compared to Malays, with Chinese children (OR = 0.3; 95%CI 0.0, 2.7) having the lowest odds. Conclusions We conclude that being overweight or obese poses a greater risk of developing the metabolic syndrome among children. Indian ethnicity is at higher risk compared to their counterparts of the same age. Hence, primary intervention strategies are required to prevent this problem from escalating.

The obesity-associated polymorphisms FTO rs9939609 and MC4R rs17782313 and endometrial cancer risk in non-Hispanic white women

Overweight and obesity are strongly associated with endometrial cancer. Several independent genome-wide association studies recently identified two common polymorphisms, FTO rs9939609 and MC4R rs17782313, that are linked to increased body weight and obesity. We examined the association of FTO rs9939609 and MC4R rs17782313 with endometrial cancer risk in a pooled analysis of nine case-control studies within the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium (E2C2). This analysis included 3601 non-Hispanic white women with histologically-confirmed endometrial carcinoma and 5275 frequency-matched controls. Unconditional logistic regression models were used to assess the relation of FTO rs9939609 and MC4R rs17782313 genotypes to the risk of endometrial cancer. Among control women, both the FTO rs9939609 A and MC4R rs17782313 C alleles were associated with a 16% increased risk of being overweight (p = 0.001 and p = 0.004, respectively). In case-control analyses, carriers of the FTO rs9939609 AA genotype were at increased risk of endometrial carcinoma compared to women with the TT genotype [odds ratio (OR) = 1.17; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03–1.32, p = 0.01]. However, this association was no longer apparent after adjusting for body mass index (BMI), suggesting mediation of the gene-disease effect through body weight. The MC4R rs17782313 polymorphism was not related to endometrial cancer risk (per allele OR = 0.98; 95% CI: 0.91–1.06; p = 0.68). FTO rs9939609 is a susceptibility marker for white non-Hispanic women at higher risk of endometrial cancer. Although FTO rs9939609 alone might have limited clinical or public health significance for identifying women at high risk for endometrial cancer beyond that of excess body weight, further investigation of obesity-related genetic markers might help to identify the pathways that influence endometrial carcinogenesis.