Reasoning about change over time: Actions, events and their effects

This paper presents a new formalism for reasoning about change over time. The formalism derives a clean separation between the notion of states and situations. It allows more flexible temporal causal relationships than do other formalisms for reasoning about causal change, such as the situation calculus and the event calculus. It includes effects that start during, immediately after, or some time after their causes, and which end before, simultaneously with, or after their causes. A formal distinction between actions, action-types and events is proposed, which allows the expression of common-sense causal laws at high level. It is shown how these laws can be used to deduce state change over time at low level, when events occur under certain preconditions hold. Two problems that beset most interval-based temporal systems, i.e., the so-called dividing instant problem and intermingling problem, are absent from the formalism.

Analyzing change in medication use - statistical approaches

The objective of this study was to gain an understanding of the effects of population heterogeneity, missing data, and causal relationships on parameter estimates from statistical models when analyzing change in medication use. From a public health perspective, two timely topics were addressed: the use and effects of statins in populations in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease and polypharmacy in older population. Growth mixture models were applied to characterize the accumulation of cardiovascular and diabetes medications among apparently healthy population of statin initiators. The causal effect of statin adherence on the incidence of acute cardiovascular events was estimated using marginal structural models in comparison with discrete-time hazards models. The impact of missing data on the growth estimates of evolution of polypharmacy was examined comparing statistical models under different assumptions for missing data mechanism. The data came from Finnish administrative registers and from the population-based Geriatric Multidisciplinary Strategy for the Good Care of the Elderly study conducted in Kuopio, Finland, during 2004–07. Five distinct patterns of accumulating medications emerged among the population of apparently healthy statin initiators during two years after statin initiation. Proper accounting for time-varying dependencies between adherence to statins and confounders using marginal structural models produced comparable estimation results with those from a discrete-time hazards model. Missing data mechanism was shown to be a key component when estimating the evolution of polypharmacy among older persons. In conclusion, population heterogeneity, missing data and causal relationships are important aspects in longitudinal studies that associate with the study question and should be critically assessed when performing statistical analyses. Analyses should be supplemented with sensitivity analyses towards model assumptions.

Role of climate on barn owls road-kill likelihood and the effect on population viability in future climate change

Roads represent a new source of mortality due to animal-vehicle risk of collision threatening log-term populations’ viability. Risk of road-kill depends on species sensitivity to roads and their specific life-history traits. The risk of road mortality for each species depends on the characteristics of roads and bioecological characteristics of the species. In this study we intend to know the importance of climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) together with traffic and life history traits and understand the role of drought in barn owl population viability, also affected by road mortality in three scenarios: high mobility, high population density and the combination of previous scenarios (mixed) (Manuscript). For the first objective we correlated the several parameters (climate, traffic and life history traits). We used the most correlated variables to build a predictive mixed model (GLMM) the influence of the same. Using a population model we evaluated barn owl population viability in all three scenarios. Model revealed precipitation, traffic and dispersal have negative relationship with road-kills, although the relationship was not significant. Scenarios showed different results, high mobility scenario showed greater population depletion, more fluctuations over time and greater risk of extinction. High population density scenario showed a more stable population with lower risk of extinction and mixed scenario showed similar results as first scenario. Climate seems to play an indirect role on barn owl road-kills, it may influence prey availability which influences barn owl reproductive success and activity. Also, high mobility scenario showed a greater negative impact on viability of populations which may affect their ability and resilience to other stochastic events. Future research should take in account climate and how it may influence species life cycles and activity periods for a more complete approach of road-kills. Also it is important to make the best mitigation decisions which might include improving prey quality habitat.

The role of psychological inflexibility in Beck's cognitive model of depression in a sample of undergraduates

Beck's cognitive model of depression proposes that depressogenic schemas have an effect on depressive symptoms by increasing the frequency of negative automatic thoughts in response to negative life events. We aimed to test a moderated, serial mediation model where psychological inflexibility, a core concept of the Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT) model of psychopathology, both mediates and moderates the relationship between depressogenic schemas and the frequency of negative automatic thoughts. A cross-sectional design was used in which 210 undergraduates responded to questionnaires assessing the constructs of interest. Results supported the proposed moderated mediation model. Both psychological inflexibility and negative automatic thoughts were significant mediators of the relationship between depressogenic schemas and depressive symptoms, and psychological inflexibility also moderated the effect of depressogenic schemas on negative automatic thoughts. We conclude that the role of psychological inflexibility in the cognitive model of depression deserves more attention.

Narratives great and small: neighbourhood change, place and identity in Notting Hill

The area of Notting Hill in west London has been subject to much media coverage in recent years, which, along with substantial gentrification, has given rise to an image of the area as the epitome of fashionable London. This study investigates the views of those marginal to gentrification and mediated representation on their feelings about the local area, its image and their changing neighbourhoods. Many participants in the research resented some of the more recent changes in Notting Hill and the area's representation in the media. However, in contrast to expectations, most of the more working-class respondents involved in the research did not articulate much emotional attachment to the area. They were more concerned with what might be termed the material aspects of life in Notting Hill: convenience, facilities, safety and so on. In contrast, the more middle-class respondents frequently spoke of their regret of the changes to the area, such as the loss of independent shops, and the reduction in diversity. Paradoxically, the loss of working-class landscapes seems a relatively middle-class worry. The symbolically important landscapes described by working-class respondents were related to more immediate, material issues, in which gentrification was only a relatively minor concern. The definitive version is available at www.blackwell-synergy.com

Laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding in adolescents: Results at two years including psychosocial aspects

International audience

On the Social Aspects of Unemployment: The Case of Life Satisfaction

Unemployment is related to economic, political and social aspects. One of the least analysed social aspects is the relationship between unemployment and the (individual) perceived levels of well-being, such as life satisfaction or happiness. This chapter complements previous work on the subject, using a panel-data econometrics methodology to analyze the relationship between unemployment and life satisfaction in a wide range of countries worldwide. The results confirm that unemployment has a negative effect, statistically significant, on life satisfaction, either for men or for women.