Top single nucleotide polymorphisms affecting carbohydrate metabolism in Metabolic Syndrome: from the LIPGENE study

Rationale:Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) is a high prevalence condition characterized by altered energy metabolism, insulin resistance and elevated cardiovascular risk.Objectives:Although many individual single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been linked to certain MetS features, there are few studies analyzing the influence of SNPs on carbohydrate metabolism in MetS.Methods:904 SNPs (tag SNPs and functional SNPs) were tested for influence in eight fasting and dynamic markers of carbohydrate metabolism, performing an intravenous glucose tolerance test in 450 participants of the LIPGENE study.Findings:From 382 initial gene-phenotype associations between SNPs and any phenotypic variables, 61 (a 16 % of the pre-selected) remained significant after Bootstrapping. Top SNPs affecting glucose metabolism variables were as follows: fasting glucose: rs26125 (PPARGC1B); fasting insulin: rs4759277 (LRP1); C peptide: rs4759277 (LRP1); HOMA-IR: rs4759277 (LRP1); QUICKI: rs184003 (AGER); SI: rs7301876 (ABCC9), AIRg: rs290481 (TCF7L2) and DI: rs12691 (CEBPA).Conclusions:We describe here the top SNPs linked to phenotypic features in carbohydrate metabolism among aproximately 1000 candidate gene variations in fasting and postprandial samples of 450 patients with MetS from the LIPGENE study.

Activities related with electricity consumption in the Spanish residential sector: variations between days of the week, Autonomous Communities and size of towns

Nowadays the electricity consumption in the residential sector attracts policy and research efforts, in order to propose saving strategies and to attain a better balance between production and consumption, by integrating renewable energy production and proposing suitable demand side management methods. To achieve these objectives it is essential to have real information about household electricity demand profiles in dwellings, highly correlated, among other aspects, with the active occupancy of the homes and to the personal activities carried out in homes by their occupants. Due to the limited information related to these aspects, in this paper, behavioral factors of the Spanish household residents, related to the electricity consumption, have been determined and analyzed, based on data from the Spanish Time Use Surveys, differentiating among the Autonomous Communities and the size of municipalities, or the type of days, weekdays or weekends. Activities involving a larger number of houses are those related to Personal Care, Food Preparation and Washing Dishes. The activity of greater realization at homes is Watching TV, which together with Using PC, results in a high energy demand in an aggregate level. Results obtained enable identify prospective targets for load control and for efficiency energy reduction recommendations to residential consumers.

Meteorology, air quality, and health in London: the ClearfLo project

The ClearfLo project provides integrated measurements of the meteorology, composition and particulate loading of London's urban atmosphere to improve predictive capability for air quality. Air quality and heat are strong health drivers and their accurate assessment and forecast are important in densely populated urban areas. However, the sources and processes leading to high concentrations of main pollutants such as ozone, nitrogen dioxide, and fine and coarse particulate matter in complex urban areas are not fully understood, limiting our ability to forecast air quality accurately. This paper introduces the ClearfLo project's interdisciplinary approach to investigate the processes leading to poor air quality and elevated temperatures. Within ClearfLo (www.clearflo.ac.uk), a large multi-institutional project funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), integrated measurements of meteorology, gaseous and particulate composition/loading within London's atmosphere were undertaken to understand the processes underlying poor air quality. Long-term measurement infrastructure installed at multiple levels (street and elevated), and at urban background, kerbside and rural locations were complemented with high-resolution numerical atmospheric simulations . Combining these (measurement/modeling) enhances understanding of seasonal variations in meteorology and composition together with the controlling processes. Two intensive observation periods (winter 2012 and summer Olympics 2012) focus upon the vertical structure and evolution of the urban boundary layer, chemical controls on nitrogen dioxide and ozone production, in particular the role of volatile organic compounds, and processes controlling the evolution, size, distribution and composition of particulate matter. The paper shows that mixing heights are deeper over London than in the rural surroundings and the seasonality of the urban boundary layer evolution controls when concentrations peak. The composition also reflects the seasonality of sources such as domestic burning and biogenic emissions.

Cobalt incorporation in calcite: Thermochemistry of (Ca,Co)CO3 solid solutions from density functional theory simulations

The incorporation of cobalt in mixed metal carbonates is a possible route to the immobilization of this toxic element in the environment. However, the thermodynamics of (Ca,Co)CO3 solid solutions are still unclear due to conflicting data from experiment and from the observation of natural ocurrences. We report here the results of a computer simulation study of the mixing of calcite (CaCO3) and spherocobaltite (CoCO3), using density functional theory calculations. Our simulations suggest that previously proposed thermodynamic models, based only on the range of observed compositions, significantly overestimate the solubility between the two solids and therefore underestimate the extension of the miscibility gap under ambient conditions. The enthalpy of mixing of the disordered solid solution is strongly positive and moderately asymmetric: calcium incorporation in spherocobaltite is more endothermic than cobalt incorporation in calcite. Ordering of the impurities in (0001) layers is energetically favourable with respect to the disordered solid solution at low temperatures and intermediate compositions, but the ordered phase is still unstable to demixing. We calculate the solvus and spinodal lines in the phase diagram using a sub-regular solution model, and conclude that many Ca1-xCoxCO3 mineral solid solutions (with observed compositions of up to x=0.027, and above x=0.93) are metastable with respect to phase separation. We also calculate solid/aqueous distribution coefficients to evaluate the effect of the strong non-ideality of mixing on the equilibrium with aqueous solution, showing that the thermodynamically-driven incorporation of cobalt in calcite (and of calcium in spherocobaltite) is always very low, regardless of the Co/Ca ratio of the aqueous environment.

Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble

Incomplete understanding of three aspects of the climate system—equilibrium climate sensitivity, rate of ocean heat uptake and historical aerosol forcing—and the physical processes underlying them lead to uncertainties in our assessment of the global-mean temperature evolution in the twenty-first century1,2. Explorations of these uncertainties have so far relied on scaling approaches3,4, large ensembles of simplified climate models1,2, or small ensembles of complex coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models5,6 which under-represent uncertainties in key climate system properties derived from independent sources7–9. Here we present results from a multi-thousand-member perturbed-physics ensemble of transient coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model simulations. We find that model versions that reproduce observed surface temperature changes over the past 50 years show global-mean temperature increases of 1.4–3 K by 2050, relative to 1961–1990, under a mid-range forcing scenario. This range of warming is broadly consistent with the expert assessment provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report10, but extends towards larger warming than observed in ensemblesof-opportunity5 typically used for climate impact assessments. From our simulations, we conclude that warming by the middle of the twenty-first century that is stronger than earlier estimates is consistent with recent observed temperature changes and a mid-range ‘no mitigation’ scenario for greenhouse-gas emissions.

Global analysis of radiative forcing from fire-induced shortwave albedo change

Land surface albedo, a key parameter to derive Earth's surface energy balance, is used in the parameterization of numerical weather prediction, climate monitoring and climate change impact assessments. Changes in albedo due to fire have not been fully investigated on a continental and global scale. The main goal of this study, therefore, is to quantify the changes in instantaneous shortwave albedo produced by biomass burning activities and their associated radiative forcing. The study relies on the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) MCD64A1 burned-area product to create an annual composite of areas affected by fire and the MCD43C2 bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) albedo snow-free product to compute a bihemispherical reflectance time series. The approximate day of burning is used to calculate the instantaneous change in shortwave albedo. Using the corresponding National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) monthly mean downward solar radiation flux at the surface, the global radiative forcing associated with fire was computed. The analysis reveals a mean decrease in shortwave albedo of −0.014 (1σ = 0.017), causing a mean positive radiative forcing of 3.99 Wm−2 (1σ = 4.89) over the 2002–20012 time period in areas affected by fire. The greatest drop in mean shortwave albedo change occurs in 2002, which corresponds to the highest total area burned (378 Mha) observed in the same year and produces the highest mean radiative forcing (4.5 Wm−2). Africa is the main contributor in terms of burned area, but forests globally give the highest radiative forcing per unit area and thus give detectable changes in shortwave albedo. The global mean radiative forcing for the whole period studied (~0.0275 Wm−2) shows that the contribution of fires to the Earth system is not insignificant.

Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review

The quantification of uncertainty is an increasingly popular topic, with clear importance for climate change policy. However, uncertainty assessments are open to a range of interpretations, each of which may lead to a different policy recommendation. In the EQUIP project researchers from the UK climate modelling, statistical modelling, and impacts communities worked together on ‘end-to-end’ uncertainty assessments of climate change and its impacts. Here, we use an experiment in peer review amongst project members to assess variation in the assessment of uncertainties between EQUIP researchers. We find overall agreement on key sources of uncertainty but a large variation in the assessment of the methods used for uncertainty assessment. Results show that communication aimed at specialists makes the methods used harder to assess. There is also evidence of individual bias, which is partially attributable to disciplinary backgrounds. However, varying views on the methods used to quantify uncertainty did not preclude consensus on the consequential results produced using those methods. Based on our analysis, we make recommendations for developing and presenting statements on climate and its impacts. These include the use of a common uncertainty reporting format in order to make assumptions clear; presentation of results in terms of processes and trade-offs rather than only numerical ranges; and reporting multiple assessments of uncertainty in order to elucidate a more complete picture of impacts and their uncertainties. This in turn implies research should be done by teams of people with a range of backgrounds and time for interaction and discussion, with fewer but more comprehensive outputs in which the range of opinions is recorded.

Towards a typology for constrained climate model forecasts

In recent years several methodologies have been developed to combine and interpret ensembles of climate models with the aim of quantifying uncertainties in climate projections. Constrained climate model forecasts have been generated by combining various choices of metrics used to weight individual ensemble members, with diverse approaches to sampling the ensemble. The forecasts obtained are often significantly different, even when based on the same model output. Therefore, a climate model forecast classification system can serve two roles: to provide a way for forecast producers to self-classify their forecasts; and to provide information on the methodological assumptions underlying the forecast generation and its uncertainty when forecasts are used for impacts studies. In this review we propose a possible classification system based on choices of metrics and sampling strategies. We illustrate the impact of some of the possible choices in the uncertainty quantification of large scale projections of temperature and precipitation changes, and briefly discuss possible connections between climate forecast uncertainty quantification and decision making approaches in the climate change context.

Diet and lifestyle in Bronze Age Northwest Spain: the collective burial of Cova do Santo

A multidisciplinary investigation of the collective burial of Cova do Santo is presented as a novel approach to understand daily life during the Bronze Age in Northwest Iberia. The research is focused on three main aspects: i) taphonomy and patterns of disposal, ii) paleopathology and -demography as indicators of health status and lifestyle, and iii) stable isotope analysis to reconstruct paleodiet and to investigate the timing of the introduction of millet to the Iberian Peninsula. Osteological analyses were performed on 64 bones (61 human and 3 animal); additionally, bone collagen was extracted from 15 samples (13 human and 2 animal) and analyzed for its carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes composition. The radiocarbon age of the human remains is consistent with the Middle Bronze Age (c. 1890 to 1600 cal BC). The recovered remains belonged to a minimum number of 14 individuals with an estimated age at death of forty years or younger. This relatively young age is in contrast to a high prevalence of degenerative joint disease in the group. The isotopic results suggest a very homogeneous diet, which was almost exclusively based on C3 plants and terrestrial animal products. Overall, the data suggest that the studied population belonged to a period prior to the introduction of spring or summer-grown crops such as millets. The collective burial from the cave of Cova de Santo, Galicia, currently represents the largest assemblage of prehistoric human remains from Northwest Spain and the relatively good preservation of the bones offers a unique opportunity to investigate daily life in Northern Iberia during the Bronze Age.

Corruption and individual ethics: insights from a public procurement auction

This article proposes an auction model where two firms compete for obtaining the license for a public project and an auctioneer acting as a public official representing the political power, decides the winner of the contest. Players as firms face a social dilemma in the sense that the higher is the bribe offered, the higher would be the willingness of a pure monetary maximizer public official to give her the license. However, it implies inducing a cost of reducing all players’ payoffs as far as our model includes an endogenous externality, which depends on bribe. All players’ payoffs decrease with the bribe (and increase with higher quality). We find that the presence of bribe aversion in either the officials’ or the firms’ utility function shifts equilibrium towards more pro-social behavior. When the quality and bribe-bid strategy space is discrete, multiple equilibria emerge including more pro-social bids than would be predicted under a continuous strategy space.

Assessing the carcinogenic potential of low-dose exposures to chemical mixtures in the environment: the challenge ahead

Lifestyle factors are responsible for a considerable portion of cancer incidence worldwide, but credible estimates from the World Health Organization and the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) suggest that the fraction of cancers attributable to toxic environmental exposures is between 7% and 19%. To explore the hypothesis that low-dose exposures to mixtures of chemicals in the environment may be combining to contribute to environmental carcinogenesis, we reviewed 11 hallmark phenotypes of cancer, multiple priority target sites for disruption in each area and prototypical chemical disruptors for all targets, this included dose-response characterizations, evidence of low-dose effects and cross-hallmark effects for all targets and chemicals. In total, 85 examples of chemicals were reviewed for actions on key pathways/mechanisms related to carcinogenesis. Only 15% (13/85) were found to have evidence of a dose-response threshold, whereas 59% (50/85) exerted low-dose effects. No dose-response information was found for the remaining 26% (22/85). Our analysis suggests that the cumulative effects of individual (non-carcinogenic) chemicals acting on different pathways, and a variety of related systems, organs, tissues and cells could plausibly conspire to produce carcinogenic synergies. Additional basic research on carcinogenesis and research focused on low-dose effects of chemical mixtures needs to be rigorously pursued before the merits of this hypothesis can be further advanced. However, the structure of the World Health Organization International Programme on Chemical Safety 'Mode of Action' framework should be revisited as it has inherent weaknesses that are not fully aligned with our current understanding of cancer biology.

Modelling spectral reflectance of open cork oak woodland: a simulation analysis of the effects of vegetation structure and background

This study analyses the influence of vegetation structure (i.e. leaf area index and canopy cover) and seasonal background changes on moderate-resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS)-simulated reflectance data in open woodland. Approximately monthly spectral reflectance and transmittance field measurements (May 2011 to October 2013) of cork oak tree leaves (Quercus suber) and of the herbaceous understorey were recorded in the region of Ribatejo, Portugal. The geometric-optical and radiative transfer (GORT) model was used to simulate MODIS response (red, near-infrared) and to calculate vegetation indices, investigating their response to changes in the structure of the overstorey vegetation and to seasonal changes in the understorey using scenarios corresponding to contrasting phenological status (dry season vs. wet season). The performance of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), soil-adjusted vegetation index (SAVI), and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) is discussed. Results showed that SAVI and EVI were very sensitive to the emergence of background vegetation in the wet season compared to NDVI and that shading effects lead to an opposing trend in the vegetation indices. The information provided by this research can be useful to improve our understanding of the temporal dynamic of vegetation, monitored by vegetation indices.

Insulin resistance determines a differential response to changes in dietary fat modification on metabolic syndrome risk factors: the LIPGENE study

Background: Previous data support the benefits of reducing dietary saturated fatty acids (SFAs) on insulin resistance (IR) and other metabolic risk factors. However, whether the IR status of those suffering from metabolic syndrome (MetS) affects this response is not established. OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to determine whether the degree of IR influences the effect of substituting high-saturated fatty acid (HSFA) diets by isoenergetic alterations in the quality and quantity of dietary fat on MetS risk factors. DESIGN: In this single-blind, parallel, controlled, dietary intervention study, MetS subjects (n = 472) from 8 European countries classified by different IR levels according to homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) were randomly assigned to 4 diets: an HSFA diet; a high-monounsaturated fatty acid (HMUFA) diet; a low-fat, high-complex carbohydrate (LFHCC) diet supplemented with long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (1.2 g/d); or an LFHCC diet supplemented with placebo for 12 wk (control). Anthropometric, lipid, inflammatory, and IR markers were determined. RESULTS: Insulin-resistant MetS subjects with the highest HOMA-IR improved IR, with reduced insulin and HOMA-IR concentrations after consumption of the HMUFA and LFHCC n-3 diets (P < 0.05). In contrast, subjects with lower HOMA-IR showed reduced body mass index and waist circumference after consumption of the LFHCC control and LFHCC n-3 diets and increased HDL cholesterol concentrations after consumption of the HMUFA and HSFA diets (P < 0.05). MetS subjects with a low to medium HOMA-IR exhibited reduced blood pressure, triglyceride, and LDL cholesterol levels after the LFHCC n-3 diet and increased apolipoprotein A-I concentrations after consumption of the HMUFA and HSFA diets (all P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Insulin-resistant MetS subjects with more metabolic complications responded differently to dietary fat modification, being more susceptible to a health effect from the substitution of SFAs in the HMUFA and LFHCC n-3 diets. Conversely, MetS subjects without IR may be more sensitive to the detrimental effects of HSFA intake. The metabolic phenotype of subjects clearly determines response to the quantity and quality of dietary fat on MetS risk factors, which suggests that targeted and personalized dietary therapies may be of value for its different metabolic features.