Use of Hy's law and a new composite algorithm to predict acute liver failure in patients with drug-induced liver injury.

BACKGROUND & AIMS Hy's Law, which states that hepatocellular drug-induced liver injury (DILI) with jaundice indicates a serious reaction, is used widely to determine risk for acute liver failure (ALF). We aimed to optimize the definition of Hy's Law and to develop a model for predicting ALF in patients with DILI. METHODS We collected data from 771 patients with DILI (805 episodes) from the Spanish DILI registry, from April 1994 through August 2012. We analyzed data collected at DILI recognition and at the time of peak levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and total bilirubin (TBL). RESULTS Of the 771 patients with DILI, 32 developed ALF. Hepatocellular injury, female sex, high levels of TBL, and a high ratio of aspartate aminotransferase (AST):ALT were independent risk factors for ALF. We compared 3 ways to use Hy's Law to predict which patients would develop ALF; all included TBL greater than 2-fold the upper limit of normal (×ULN) and either ALT level greater than 3 × ULN, a ratio (R) value (ALT × ULN/alkaline phosphatase × ULN) of 5 or greater, or a new ratio (nR) value (ALT or AST, whichever produced the highest ×ULN/ alkaline phosphatase × ULN value) of 5 or greater. At recognition of DILI, the R- and nR-based models identified patients who developed ALF with 67% and 63% specificity, respectively, whereas use of only ALT level identified them with 44% specificity. However, the level of ALT and the nR model each identified patients who developed ALF with 90% sensitivity, whereas the R criteria identified them with 83% sensitivity. An equal number of patients who did and did not develop ALF had alkaline phosphatase levels greater than 2 × ULN. An algorithm based on AST level greater than 17.3 × ULN, TBL greater than 6.6 × ULN, and AST:ALT greater than 1.5 identified patients who developed ALF with 82% specificity and 80% sensitivity. CONCLUSIONS When applied at DILI recognition, the nR criteria for Hy's Law provides the best balance of sensitivity and specificity whereas our new composite algorithm provides additional specificity in predicting the ultimate development of ALF.

Adipose tissue concentrations of persistent organic pollutants and total cancer risk in an adult cohort from Southern Spain: preliminary data from year 9 of the follow-up.

There is an increasing trend in the incidence of cancer worldwide, and it has been accepted that environmental factors account for an important proportion of the global burden. The present paper reports preliminary findings on the influence of the historical exposure to a group of persistent organic pollutants on total cancer risk, at year 9 in the follow-up of a cohort from Southern Spain. A cohort of 368 participants (median age 51 years) was recruited in 2003. Their historical exposure was estimated by analyzing residues of persistent organic pollutants in adipose tissue. Estimation of cancer incidence was based on data from a population-based cancer registry. Statistical analyses were performed using multivariable Cox-regression models. In males, PCB 153 concentrations were positively associated with total cancer risk, with an adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of 1.20 (1.01-1.41) for an increment of 100 ng/g lipid. Our preliminary findings suggest a potential relationship between the historical exposure to persistent organic pollutants and the risk of cancer in men. However, these results should be interpreted with caution and require verification during the future follow-up of this cohort.

Combined vemurafenib and cobimetinib in BRAF-mutated melanoma.

BACKGROUND The combined inhibition of BRAF and MEK is hypothesized to improve clinical outcomes in patients with melanoma by preventing or delaying the onset of resistance observed with BRAF inhibitors alone. This randomized phase 3 study evaluated the combination of the BRAF inhibitor vemurafenib and the MEK inhibitor cobimetinib. METHODS We randomly assigned 495 patients with previously untreated unresectable locally advanced or metastatic BRAF V600 mutation-positive melanoma to receive vemurafenib and cobimetinib (combination group) or vemurafenib and placebo (control group). The primary end point was investigator-assessed progression-free survival. RESULTS The median progression-free survival was 9.9 months in the combination group and 6.2 months in the control group (hazard ratio for death or disease progression, 0.51; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39 to 0.68; P<0.001). The rate of complete or partial response in the combination group was 68%, as compared with 45% in the control group (P<0.001), including rates of complete response of 10% in the combination group and 4% in the control group. Progression-free survival as assessed by independent review was similar to investigator-assessed progression-free survival. Interim analyses of overall survival showed 9-month survival rates of 81% (95% CI, 75 to 87) in the combination group and 73% (95% CI, 65 to 80) in the control group. Vemurafenib and cobimetinib was associated with a nonsignificantly higher incidence of adverse events of grade 3 or higher, as compared with vemurafenib and placebo (65% vs. 59%), and there was no significant difference in the rate of study-drug discontinuation. The number of secondary cutaneous cancers decreased with the combination therapy. CONCLUSIONS The addition of cobimetinib to vemurafenib was associated with a significant improvement in progression-free survival among patients with BRAF V600-mutated metastatic melanoma, at the cost of some increase in toxicity. (Funded by F. Hoffmann-La Roche/Genentech; coBRIM ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01689519.).

Effective size of two feral domestic cat populations (Felis catus L): effect of the mating system.

A variety of behavioural traits have substantial effects on the gene dynamics and genetic structure of local populations. The mating system is a plastic trait that varies with environmental conditions in the domestic cat (Felis catus) allowing an intraspecific comparison of the impact of this feature on genetic characteristics of the population. To assess the potential effect of the heterogenity of males' contribution to the next generation on variance effective size, we applied the ecological approach of Nunney & Elam (1994) based upon a demographic and behavioural study, and the genetic 'temporal methods' of Waples (1989) and Berthier et al. (2002) using microsatellite markers. The two cat populations studied were nearly closed, similar in size and survival parameters, but differed in their mating system. Immigration appeared extremely restricted in both cases due to environmental and social constraints. As expected, the ratio of effective size to census number (Ne/N) was higher in the promiscuous cat population (harmonic mean = 42%) than in the polygynous one (33%), when Ne was calculated from the ecological method. Only the genetic results based on Waples' estimator were consistent with the ecological results, but failed to evidence an effect of the mating system. Results based on the estimation of Berthier et al. (2002) were extremely variable, with Ne sometimes exceeding census size. Such low reliability in the genetic results should retain attention for conservation purposes.

Prospective multicenter study of the impact of carbapenem resistance on mortality in Pseudomonas aeruginosa bloodstream infections.

The impact of antimicrobial resistance on clinical outcomes is the subject of ongoing investigations, although uncertainty remains about its contribution to mortality. We investigated the impact of carbapenem resistance on mortality in Pseudomonas aeruginosa bacteremia in a prospective multicenter (10 teaching hospitals) observational study of patients with monomicrobial bacteremia followed up for 30 days after the onset of bacteremia. The adjusted influence of carbapenem resistance on mortality was studied by using Cox regression analysis. Of 632 episodes, 487 (77%) were caused by carbapenem-susceptible P. aeruginosa (CSPA) isolates, and 145 (23%) were caused by carbapenem-resistant P. aeruginosa (CRPA) isolates. The median incidence density of nosocomial CRPA bacteremia was 2.3 episodes per 100,000 patient-days (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.9 to 2.8). The regression demonstrated a time-dependent effect of carbapenem resistance on mortality as well as a significant interaction with the Charlson index: the deleterious effect of carbapenem resistance on mortality decreased with higher Charlson index scores. The impact of resistance on mortality was statistically significant only from the fifth day after the onset of the bacteremia, reaching its peak values at day 30 (adjusted hazard ratio for a Charlson score of 0 at day 30, 9.9 [95% CI, 3.3 to 29.4]; adjusted hazard ratio for a Charlson score of 5 at day 30, 2.6 [95% CI, 0.8 to 8]). This study clarifies the relationship between carbapenem resistance and mortality in patients with P. aeruginosa bacteremia. Although resistance was associated with a higher risk of mortality, the study suggested that this deleterious effect may not be as great during the first days of the bacteremia or in the presence of comorbidities.

Prospective registry of symptomatic severe aortic stenosis in octogenarians: a need for intervention.

OBJECTIVE To study the factors associated with choice of therapy and prognosis in octogenarians with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis (AS). STUDY DESIGN Prospective, observational, multicenter registry. Centralized follow-up included survival status and, if possible, mode of death and Katz index. SETTING Transnational registry in Spain. SUBJECTS We included 928 patients aged ≥80 years with severe symptomatic AS. INTERVENTIONS Aortic-valve replacement (AVR), transcatheter aortic-valve implantation (TAVI) or conservative therapy. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES All-cause death. RESULTS Mean age was 84.2 ± 3.5 years, and only 49.0% were independent (Katz index A). The most frequent planned management was conservative therapy in 423 (46%) patients, followed by TAVI in 261 (28%) and AVR in 244 (26%). The main reason against recommending AVR in 684 patients was high surgical risk [322 (47.1%)], other medical motives [193 (28.2%)], patient refusal [134 (19.6%)] and family refusal in the case of incompetent patients [35 (5.1%)]. The mean time from treatment decision to AVR was 4.8 ± 4.6 months and to TAVI 2.1 ± 3.2 months, P < 0.001. During follow-up (11.2-38.9 months), 357 patients (38.5%) died. Survival rates at 6, 12, 18 and 24 months were 81.8%, 72.6%, 64.1% and 57.3%, respectively. Planned intervention, adjusted for multiple propensity score, was associated with lower mortality when compared with planned conservative treatment: TAVI Hazard ratio (HR) 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.49-0.93; P = 0.016) and AVR HR 0.56 (95% CI 0.39-0.8; P = 0.002). CONCLUSION Octogenarians with symptomatic severe AS are frequently managed conservatively. Planned conservative management is associated with a poor prognosis.

Undertreatment of acute pain (oligoanalgesia) and medical practice variation in prehospital analgesia of adult trauma patients: a 10 yr retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Prehospital oligoanalgesia is prevalent among trauma victims, even when the emergency medical services team includes a physician. We investigated if not only patients' characteristics but physicians' practice variations contributed to prehospital oligoanalgesia. METHODS: Patient records of conscious adult trauma victims transported by our air rescue helicopter service over 10 yr were reviewed retrospectively. Oligoanalgesia was defined as a numeric rating scale (NRS) >3 at hospital admission. Multilevel logistic regression analysis was used to predict oligoanalgesia, accounting first for patient case-mix, and then physician-level clustering. The intraclass correlation was expressed as the median odds ratio (MOR). RESULTS: A total of 1202 patients and 77 physicians were included in the study. NRS at the scene was 6.9 (1.9). The prevalence of oligoanalgesia was 43%. Physicians had a median of 5.7 yr (inter-quartile range: 4.2-7.5) of post-graduate training and 27% were female. In our multilevel analysis, significant predictors of oligoanalgesia were: no analgesia [odds ratio (OR) 8.8], National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics V on site (OR 4.4), NRS on site (OR 1.5 per additional NRS unit >4), female physician (OR 2.0), and years of post-graduate experience [>4.0 to ≤5.0 (OR 1.3), >3.0 to ≤4.0 (OR 1.6), >2.0 to ≤3.0 (OR 2.6), and ≤2.0 yr (OR 16.7)]. The MOR was 2.6, and was statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Physicians' practice variations contributed to oligoanalgesia, a factor often overlooked in analyses of prehospital pain management. Further exploration of the sources of these variations may provide innovative targets for quality improvement programmes to achieve consistent pain relief for trauma victims.

Prevalence, characteristics, and publication of discontinued randomized trials.

IMPORTANCE: The discontinuation of randomized clinical trials (RCTs) raises ethical concerns and often wastes scarce research resources. The epidemiology of discontinued RCTs, however, remains unclear. OBJECTIVES: To determine the prevalence, characteristics, and publication history of discontinued RCTs and to investigate factors associated with RCT discontinuation due to poor recruitment and with nonpublication. DESIGN AND SETTING: Retrospective cohort of RCTs based on archived protocols approved by 6 research ethics committees in Switzerland, Germany, and Canada between 2000 and 2003. We recorded trial characteristics and planned recruitment from included protocols. Last follow-up of RCTs was April 27, 2013. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Completion status, reported reasons for discontinuation, and publication status of RCTs as determined by correspondence with the research ethics committees, literature searches, and investigator surveys. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 11.6 years (range, 8.8-12.6 years), 253 of 1017 included RCTs were discontinued (24.9% [95% CI, 22.3%-27.6%]). Only 96 of 253 discontinuations (37.9% [95% CI, 32.0%-44.3%]) were reported to ethics committees. The most frequent reason for discontinuation was poor recruitment (101/1017; 9.9% [95% CI, 8.2%-12.0%]). In multivariable analysis, industry sponsorship vs investigator sponsorship (8.4% vs 26.5%; odds ratio [OR], 0.25 [95% CI, 0.15-0.43]; P < .001) and a larger planned sample size in increments of 100 (-0.7%; OR, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.92-1.00]; P = .04) were associated with lower rates of discontinuation due to poor recruitment. Discontinued trials were more likely to remain unpublished than completed trials (55.1% vs 33.6%; OR, 3.19 [95% CI, 2.29-4.43]; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this sample of trials based on RCT protocols from 6 research ethics committees, discontinuation was common, with poor recruitment being the most frequently reported reason. Greater efforts are needed to ensure the reporting of trial discontinuation to research ethics committees and the publication of results of discontinued trials.

Natalizumab-related anaphylactoid reactions in MS patients are associated with HLA class II alleles.

OBJECTIVES We aimed to investigate potential associations between human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class I and class II alleles and the development of anaphylactic/anaphylactoid reactions in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) treated with natalizumab. METHODS HLA class I and II genotyping was performed in patients with MS who experienced anaphylactic/anaphylactoid reactions and in patients who did not develop infusion-related allergic reactions following natalizumab administration. RESULTS A total of 119 patients with MS from 3 different cohorts were included in the study: 54 with natalizumab-related anaphylactic/anaphylactoid reactions and 65 without allergic reactions. HLA-DRB1*13 and HLA-DRB1*14 alleles were significantly increased in patients who developed anaphylactic/anaphylactoid reactions (p M-H = 3 × 10(-7); odds ratio [OR]M-H = 8.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.40-23.64), with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 82%. In contrast, the HLA-DRB1*15 allele was significantly more represented in patients who did not develop anaphylactic/anaphylactoid reactions to natalizumab (p M-H = 6 × 10(-4); ORM-H = 0.2, 95% CI = 0.08-0.50), with a PPV of 81%. CONCLUSIONS HLA-DRB1 genotyping before natalizumab treatment may help neurologists to identify patients with MS at risk for developing serious systemic hypersensitivity reactions associated with natalizumab administration.

Combined vemurafenib and cobimetinib in BRAF-mutated melanoma.

BACKGROUND The combined inhibition of BRAF and MEK is hypothesized to improve clinical outcomes in patients with melanoma by preventing or delaying the onset of resistance observed with BRAF inhibitors alone. This randomized phase 3 study evaluated the combination of the BRAF inhibitor vemurafenib and the MEK inhibitor cobimetinib. METHODS We randomly assigned 495 patients with previously untreated unresectable locally advanced or metastatic BRAF V600 mutation-positive melanoma to receive vemurafenib and cobimetinib (combination group) or vemurafenib and placebo (control group). The primary end point was investigator-assessed progression-free survival. RESULTS The median progression-free survival was 9.9 months in the combination group and 6.2 months in the control group (hazard ratio for death or disease progression, 0.51; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39 to 0.68; P<0.001). The rate of complete or partial response in the combination group was 68%, as compared with 45% in the control group (P<0.001), including rates of complete response of 10% in the combination group and 4% in the control group. Progression-free survival as assessed by independent review was similar to investigator-assessed progression-free survival. Interim analyses of overall survival showed 9-month survival rates of 81% (95% CI, 75 to 87) in the combination group and 73% (95% CI, 65 to 80) in the control group. Vemurafenib and cobimetinib was associated with a nonsignificantly higher incidence of adverse events of grade 3 or higher, as compared with vemurafenib and placebo (65% vs. 59%), and there was no significant difference in the rate of study-drug discontinuation. The number of secondary cutaneous cancers decreased with the combination therapy. CONCLUSIONS The addition of cobimetinib to vemurafenib was associated with a significant improvement in progression-free survival among patients with BRAF V600-mutated metastatic melanoma, at the cost of some increase in toxicity. (Funded by F. Hoffmann-La Roche/Genentech; coBRIM ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01689519.).

Role of Age and Sex in the Diagnosis of Early-stage Malignant Melanoma: A Cross-Sectional study.

Age and sex have been identified as predictors of outcome in malignant melanoma (MM). This aim of this multicentre, cross-sectional study was to analyse the role of age and sex as explanatory variables for the diagnosis of thin MM. A total of 2430 patients with MM were recruited. Cases of in situ-T1 MM were more frequent than T2-T4 MM (56.26% vs. 43.74%). Breslow thickness increased throughout decades of life (analysis of variance (ANOVA) p < 0.001), with a weak correlation between Breslow thickness and patient's age (r   = 0.202, p < 0.001). Breslow thickness was significantly less in women (1.79 vs. 2.38 mm, p = 0.0001). Binary logistic regression showed a significant (p < 0.001) odds ratio for age 0-29 years (1.18), and 30-59 years (1.16), and for women (1.09). Age and sex explained 3.64% of the variation observed in Tis-T1 frequency (R2 = 0.0364). Age and sex appear to explain a low percentage of the variation in the early detection of MM.

Prevalence and factors associated with difficulty and intention to quit smoking in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Recent data indicate a slight decrease in the prevalence of smoking in Switzerland, but little is known regarding the intention and difficulty to quit smoking among current smokers. Hence, we aimed to quantify the difficulty and intention to quit smoking among current smokers in Switzerland. METHODS: Cross-sectional study including 607 female and 658 male smokers. Difficulty, intention and motivation to quit smoking were assessed by questionnaire. RESULTS: 90% of women and 85% of men reported being "very difficult" or "difficult" to quit smoking. Almost three quarters of smokers (73% of women and 71% of men) intended to quit; however, less than 20% of them were in the preparation stage and 40% were in the precontemplation stage. On multivariate analysis, difficulty to quit was lower among men (Odds ratio and 95% [confidence interval]: 0.51 [0.35-0.74]) and increased with nicotine dependence and number of previous quitting attempts (OR=3.14 [1.75-5.63] for 6+ attempts compared to none). Intention to quit decreased with increasing age (OR=0.48 [0.30-0.75] for ≥65 years compared to <45 years) and increased with nicotine dependence, the number of previous quitting attempts (OR=4.35 [2.76-6.83] for 6+ attempts compared to none) and among non-cigarette smokers (OR=0.51 [0.28-0.92]). Motivation to quit was inversely associated with nicotine dependence and positively associated with the number of previous quitting attempts and personal history of lung disease. CONCLUSION: Over two thirds of Swiss smokers want to quit. However, only a small fraction wishes to do so in the short term. Nicotine dependence, previous attempts to quit or previous history of lung disease are independently associated with difficulty and intention to quit.

Effectiveness of glatiramer acetate compared to other multiple sclerosis therapies.

OBJECTIVE To assess the effectiveness of glatiramer acetate (GA) compared to other multiple sclerosis (MS) therapies in routine clinical practice. MATERIALS AND METHODS Observational cohort study carried out in MS patients treated with GA (GA cohort) or other MS therapies -switched from GA- (non-GA cohort). Study data were obtained through review of our MS patient database. The primary endpoint was the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores reached at the end of treatment/last check-up. RESULTS A total of 180 patients were included: GA cohort n = 120, non-GA cohort n = 60. Patients in the GA cohort showed better EDSS scores at the end of treatment/last check-up (mean ± SD, 2.8 ± 1.8 vs. 3.9 ± 2.2; P = 0.001) and were 1.65 times more likely to show better EDSS scores compared to the non-GA cohort (odds ratio, 0.606; 95%CI, 0.436-0.843; P = 0.003). Patients in the GA cohort showed longer mean time to reach EDSS scores of 6 (209.1 [95%CI, 187.6-230.6] vs. 164.3 [95% CI, 137.0-191.6] months; P = 0.004) and slower disability progression (hazard ratio, 0.415 [95%CI, 0.286-0.603]; P < 0.001). The annualized relapse rate was lower in the GA cohort (mean ± SD, 0.5 ± 0.5 vs. 0.8 ± 0.5; P = 0.001) and patients' quality of life was improved in this study cohort compared to the non-GA cohort (mean ± SD, 0.7 ± 0.1 vs. 0.6 ± 0.2; P = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS GA may slow down the progression of EDSS scores to a greater extent than other MS therapies, as well as achieving a greater reduction in relapses and a greater improvement in patients' quality of life. Switching from GA to other MS therapies has not proved to entail a better response to treatment.

Prospective multicenter study of the impact of carbapenem resistance on mortality in Pseudomonas aeruginosa bloodstream infections.

The impact of antimicrobial resistance on clinical outcomes is the subject of ongoing investigations, although uncertainty remains about its contribution to mortality. We investigated the impact of carbapenem resistance on mortality in Pseudomonas aeruginosa bacteremia in a prospective multicenter (10 teaching hospitals) observational study of patients with monomicrobial bacteremia followed up for 30 days after the onset of bacteremia. The adjusted influence of carbapenem resistance on mortality was studied by using Cox regression analysis. Of 632 episodes, 487 (77%) were caused by carbapenem-susceptible P. aeruginosa (CSPA) isolates, and 145 (23%) were caused by carbapenem-resistant P. aeruginosa (CRPA) isolates. The median incidence density of nosocomial CRPA bacteremia was 2.3 episodes per 100,000 patient-days (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.9 to 2.8). The regression demonstrated a time-dependent effect of carbapenem resistance on mortality as well as a significant interaction with the Charlson index: the deleterious effect of carbapenem resistance on mortality decreased with higher Charlson index scores. The impact of resistance on mortality was statistically significant only from the fifth day after the onset of the bacteremia, reaching its peak values at day 30 (adjusted hazard ratio for a Charlson score of 0 at day 30, 9.9 [95% CI, 3.3 to 29.4]; adjusted hazard ratio for a Charlson score of 5 at day 30, 2.6 [95% CI, 0.8 to 8]). This study clarifies the relationship between carbapenem resistance and mortality in patients with P. aeruginosa bacteremia. Although resistance was associated with a higher risk of mortality, the study suggested that this deleterious effect may not be as great during the first days of the bacteremia or in the presence of comorbidities.

Between-year variation in population sex ratio increases with complexity of the breeding system in Hymenoptera.

While adaptive adjustment of sex ratio in the function of colony kin structure and food availability commonly occurs in social Hymenoptera, long-term studies have revealed substantial unexplained between-year variation in sex ratio at the population level. In order to identify factors that contribute to increased between-year variation in population sex ratio, we conducted a comparative analysis across 47 Hymenoptera species differing in their breeding system. We found that between-year variation in population sex ratio steadily increased as one moved from solitary species, to primitively eusocial species, to single-queen eusocial species, to multiple-queen eusocial species. Specifically, between-year variation in population sex ratio was low (6.6% of total possible variation) in solitary species, which is consistent with the view that in solitary species, sex ratio can vary only in response to fluctuations in ecological factors such as food availability. In contrast, we found significantly higher (19.5%) between-year variation in population sex ratio in multiple-queen eusocial species, which supports the view that in these species, sex ratio can also fluctuate in response to temporal changes in social factors such as queen number and queen-worker control over sex ratio, as well as factors influencing caste determination. The simultaneous adjustment of sex ratio in response to temporal fluctuations in ecological and social factors seems to preclude the existence of a single sex ratio optimum. The absence of such an optimum may reflect an additional cost associated with the evolution of complex breeding systems in Hymenoptera societies.