A habilidade preditiva e os impactos dos choques na política monetária e no câmbio: comparações entre modelos DSGE, VAR e BVAR estimados para o Brasil

Este artigo compara a habilidade preditiva foradaamostra de um modelo DSGE (DynamicStochastic General EquilibriumModel)Novo-Keynesiano, especificado e estimado para o Brasil, com a de um modelo Autorregressivo Vetorial (VAR) e com a de um modelo AutorregressivoVetorial Bayesiano (BVAR). O artigo inova em relação a outros trabalhos similares feitos para o Brasil (Castro et al. (2011) e Caetano e Moura (2013)), ao escolher uma especificação para o modelo DSGE que, ao permitir o uso de um conjunto de informação mais rico, tornou possível computar-se a habilidade preditiva do DSGE a partir de previsões que são,verdadeiramente,previsõesfora da amostra. Ademais, diferentemente de outros artigos que utilizaram dados brasileiros, avalia-se em que medida as respostas das variáveis aos choques na política monetária e no câmbio, obtidas pelo modelo DSGE, se assemelham àquelas de um BVAR estimado através de procedimentos bayesianos desenvolvidos de forma consistente. O modelo DSGE estimado é similar ao utilizado por Justiniano e Preston (2010) e Alpanda (2010). O modelo BVAR foi estimado utilizando uma metodologia semelhante à desenvolvida por Sims e Zha (1998), Waggoner e Zha (2003) e Ramírez, Waggoner e Zha (2007).Os resultados obtidos mostram que o modelo DSGE é capaz de gerar, para algumas variáveis, previsões competitivas em relação às dos outros modelos rivais VAR e BVAR. Além disso, as respostas das variáveis aos choques nas políticas monetária e cambial, nos modelos DSGE e BVAR, são bastante similares.

Compostos organoclorados em uma raia criticamente ameaçada, Gymnura altavela (LINNAEUS, 1758), no estuário da Baía de Guanabara, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil.

Nos últimos anos, temas envolvendo a conservação de elasmobrânquios têm recebido maior atenção em muitos países. Muitas espécies passaram a ser consideradas ameaçadas de extinção pela IUCN, demonstrando a necessidade de ordenamento pesqueiro e elaboração de planos de manejo. Os Poluentes Orgânicos Persistentes correspondem a mais uma ameaça para esse grupo de peixes, no entanto, estudos envolvendo a contaminação desses organismos são recentes e vêm aumentando nos últimos anos. O presente estudo teve como objetivo principal a quantificação de compostos organoclorados em tecido hepático de uma espécie de raia criticamente ameaçada raia-borboleta, Gymnura altavela, residente na Baía de Guanabara, um dos ambientes estuarinos mais impactados do Brasil. Além disso, investigouse a influência de fatores biológicos, tais como estágio de maturidade sexual, sexo, tamanho e porcentagem de lipídio na matriz analisada, sobre os perfis de contaminação por esses xenobióticos. As concentrações dos compostos organoclorados foram determinadas com a utilização do cromatógrafo de fase gasosa com detector de captura de elétrons (CG-DCE), da marca Agilent Technologies, modelo 7890. Nossos resultados mostraram que as bifelinas policloradas (PCB) representam a classe mais importante de contaminantes com concentração média de 6.772,8 ( 4.659,4) ng.g-1 de lipídio e a maior concentração foi 18.513,1 ng.g-1 de lipídio em um indivíduo macho e jovem. Desse total, 66,5% foram representados pelos congêneres de PCBs 153>138>180>101>170. Quanto ao número de átomos de cloro, os PCBs pertences à classe dos hexa-clorados foram os mais abundantes. A concentração média do ΣDDT foi 646,0 ( 722,4) ng.g-1 de lipídio e o isômero mais representativo foi o p,p DDE com 65,7% do total. O ΣHCH, o HCB e o Mirex representaram 0,13% da contaminação total em G. altavela sendo, portanto, os compostos com as menores contribuições. A razão representada pela fórmula ΣDDT/ΣPCB foi de 0,09, caracterizando uma predominância de compostos de origem industrial. As correlações de Spearman apontaram para uma diminuição das concentrações do ΣPCB, ΣHCH e Mirex à medida que os indivíduos crescem. Não foram encontradas diferenças nas concentrações em relação aos diferentes estágios de maturidade sexual e entre machos e fêmeas.

Análise numérica do efeito de sobrecargas assimétricas em estacas: estudo de pontes nas obras do Arco Metropolitano.

O presente trabalho aborda o efeito de sobrecargas assimétricas em estacas, através do estudo de caso de encontros da Ponte do Rio Capivari nas obras do Arco Metropolitano. Neste caso específico as estacas foram construídas previamente a execução de aterros em terra armada e para minimizar o efeito de Tschebotarioff o solo foi reforçado com colunas de brita. Com embasamento na revisão bibliográfica apresentada foi realizada a análise pelo Método dos Elementos Finitos. Esta análise, realizada pelo programa computacional Plaxis, teve como foco principal a obtenção dos deslocamentos e momentos fletores nas estacas para os dois casos analisados: sem colunas de brita e com solo homogêneo equivalente (com colunas de brita). Foi possível verificar a influência da introdução das colunas de brita na redução dos momentos fletores e deslocamentos horizontais nas estacas dos encontros. Realizou-se ainda uma simulação em que as estacas seriam construídas após a realização dos aterros em terra armada onde pode-se constatar que o efeito de sobrecargas assimétricas seria mitigado. Foi efetuada também a comparação entre os deslocamentos provenientes de dados coletados da instrumentação de campo (inclinômetros) e os obtidos pelas análises numéricas, estando os mesmos compatíveis entre si, demonstrando que a metodologia adotada para simulação das colunas de brita no Método dos Elementos finitos foi adequada.

Frog skins keep redox homeostasis by antioxidant peptides with rapid radical scavenging ability

The question of how amphibians can protect themselves from reactive oxygen species when exposed to the sun in an oxygen-rich atmosphere is important and interesting, not only from an evolutionary viewpoint, but also as a primer for researchers interested in mammalian skin biology, in which such peptide systems for antioxidant defense are not well studied. The identification of an antioxidant peptide named antioxidin-RL from frog (Odorrana livida) skin in this report supports the idea that a peptide antioxidant system may be a widespread antioxidant strategy among amphibian skins. Its ability to eliminate most of the 2,2'-azino-bis(3-ethylbenzthiazoline-6-sulfonic acid) radical tested within 2 s, which is much faster than the commercial antioxidant factor butylated hydroxytoluene, suggests that it has a potentially large impact on redox homeostasis in amphibian skins. Cys10 is proven to be responsible for its rapid radical scavenging function and tyrosines take part in the binding of antioxidin-RL to radicals according to our nuclear magnetic resonance assay. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the origin of new genes in Drosophila

Several mechanisms have been proposed to account for the origination of new genes. Despite extensive case studies, the general principles governing this fundamental process are still unclear at the whole-genome level. Here, we unveil genome-wide patterns

Report of the training course on integrated coastal management in the Bay of Bengal, Chonburi, Thailand, 20-24 October, 2014

Participants consisted of 25 middle and junior level personnel from BOBLME countries. Modules included: Integrated Coastal Management (ICM) concept and principles; ICM development and implementation; indicators of good practice; and action planning.

REDESCRIPTION AND SYSTEMATIC STATUS OF NEOCAPILLARIA PHOXINI YU ET WANG, 1994 (NEMATODA: CAPILLARIIDAE)

Re-examination of the syntypes of the capillariid nematode Neocapillaria phoxini Yu et Wang, 1994, the type species of Neocapillaria Yu et Wang, 1994, described from the intestine of the freshwater fish Phoxinus lagowskii variegatus Gunther (Cyprinidae) from China, confirmed its morphological similarity with species of Freitascapillaria Moravec, 1987, to which it is transferred as Freitascapillaria phoxini (Yu et Wang, 1994) comb. n. Consequently, Neocapillaria Yu et Wang, 1994 (a homonym to Neocapillaria Moravec, 1987) and Sinocapillaria Moravec et Spratt, 1998 become junior synonyms of Freitascapillaria. Skrjabinocapillaria gigantea is transferred to Freitascapillaria as F. gigantea (Wang, 1984) comb. n.

Revised diagnosis of the genus Bangana Hamilton, 1822 (Pisces : Cyprinidae), with taxonomic and nomenclatural notes on the Chinese species

Most morphological characters diagnostic of the 13 Chinese species of the cyprinid genus Sinilabeo Rendahl, 1932, are identical to those of the genus Bangana Hamilton, 1822. Consequently, these 13 species are transferred to Bangana. A revised diagnosis is provided for the now-expanded genus Bangana, and a dichotomous key and taxonomic and nomenclatural notes are included for the following valid Chinese species: B. decora, B. dero, B. devdevi, B. discognathoides, B. lemassoni, B. lippa, B. rendahli, B. tonkinensis, B. tungting, B. wui, B. xanthogenys, B. yunnanensis, and B. zhui. Literature reports, by Chinese authors, of Sinilabeo dero from the upper Irrawady River basin, in Yunnan, are based on misidentifcations of B. devdevi. Sinilabeo cirrhinoides Wu and Lin in Wu, Lin, Chen, Chen and He, 1977, and S. laticeps Wu and Lin in Wu, Lin, Chen, Chen and He, 1977, are junior subjective synonyms of B. devdevi and B. lippa, respectively. Sinilabeo yunnanensis Wu, Lin, Chen, Chen and He, 1977, is an available name, and a lectotype is designated for the species. Bangana zhui ( Zheng and Chen, 1983) is a valid species distinct from B. yunnanensis.

Molecular and morphological data suggest that Spinibarbus caldwelli (Nichols) (Teleostei : Cyprinidae) is a valid species

The taxonomic problem of the cyprinid species of genus Spinibarbus, occurring in southern China and northern Vietnam, was resolved on the basis of molecular and morphological analyses. Spinibarbus caldwelli and Spinibarbus hollandi have a smooth posterior edge of the last unbranched dorsal fin ray among species in the genus. Spinibarbus caldwelli is currently regarded as a junior synonym of S. hollandi because of ambiguities in diagnostic characters. In this article, 11 mtDNA cytochrome b sequences of Spinibarbus specimens were analyzed together with Barbodes gonionotus and Puntius conchonius as outgroups. Our results showed that specimens identified as S. hollandi from Taiwan were different from those from the Asian mainland at a high level of genetic divergence (0.097-0.112), which is higher than that between the two valid species, S. sinensis and S. yunnanensis ( 0.089), and suggested that Taiwan specimens should be considered as a different species from the Asian mainland one. In a molecular phylogenetic analysis, the sister-group relationship between Taiwan specimens and the Asian mainland specimens was supported strongly by a high confidence level ( 100% in bootstrap value). Further analysis of morphological characters showed that overlap of diagnostic characters is much weaker than previously suggested. Taiwan specimens had 8 branched rays in the dorsal fin, whereas those from the mainland had almost 9-10. The molecular and morphological differences suggest S. caldwelli to be valid. The molecular divergence shows the genetic speciation of S. hollandi and S. caldwelli might have occurred 5.6-4.9 million years ago; the former could be a relict species in Taiwan, and the latter dispersed in the Asian mainland.

New data on the morphology and systematic status of Spinitectus petrowi and Spinitectus gigi (Nematoda : Cystidicolidae) parasitic in catfishes in central China

Two little-known nematode species of the genus Spinitectus Fourment, 1883, S. petrowi Belous, 1965 (prevalence 25%, intensity 1-8) and S. gigi Fujita, 1927 (prevalence 10%, intensity 2-3), were collected from the gastrointestinal tract of the yellow catfish, Pelteobagrus fulvidraco (Richardson), from Liangzihu Lake, Hubei Province, central China, in September of 2002. The light and scanning electron microscopical examination of this material, supplemented by a few museum specimens of S. gigi collected from the catfish Clarias fuscus (Lacepede) in southern China, made it possible to study in detail the morphology of these parasite species and to redescribe them. The first species, whose correct name is S. petrowi Belous, 1965, exhibits some morphological features (e.g., unusually short vestibule, shape of pseudolabia and of the left spicule) not found in most other congeners; a unique feature is the presence of peculiar pairs of transversely oriented peg-like cuticular spines with rounded ends on the ventral surface of the female tail. Spinitectus gigi was found to have 28-31 cuticular spines in the first ring, relatively long distances between the 2nd-7th rings of spines, and anterior rings divided into 2 sectors; the excretory pore is located at the level of the 4th ring of cuticular spines; males posses 4 pairs of preanal- and 6 pairs of postanal caudal papillae and a pair of small phasmids. Spinitectus bagri Wang, Wu et Yu, 1993 and S. wulingensis Yu et Wang, 1997 are considered junior synonyms of S. petrowi, whereas S. clariasi Ky, 1971, S. ophicephali Ky, 1971 and S. yuanjiangensis Wang, Wit et Yu, 1997 are regarded to be junior synonyms of S. gigi. Spinitectus petrowi was not previously reported from China.

Revision of Yunnanilus with descriptions of a miniature species flock and six new species from China (Cypriniformes: Homalopteridae)

The genus Yunnanilus Nichols, 1925 is revised; Eonemachilus Berg, 1938 is a junior subjective synonym. Yunnanilus includes at least nine described species and five undescribed species. The status of Y; salmonides Chaudhuri is still incertae sedis. Six new species are described: Y. parvus, Y: altus, Y; pachycephalus, X niger, Y. macrogaster and Y. paludosus. The last three species occur sympatrically in a small endorheic basin of eastern Yunnan; they developed different feeding specializations which allowed them to use different niches. Other species also have peculiar specializations. The diversity of feeding habits and related adaptations in Yunnanilus is greater than in the whole subfamily Nemacheilinae and is one more example of supralimital specialization. Speciation of fishes on the Yunnan Plateau is discussed. Several species are endangered or possibly extinct. Introduction

北京中小学生创造性思维的发展以及十三年前后之比较

This study investigated the major characteristics of creative thinking development for the school children in Beijing with paper/pencil tests. The “Creative Thinking Test” was executed. The representative samples were two groups of students who came from the classes in 3rd-grade to 12th-grade of normal schools in Beijing. The classes were selected at random, one grade one class. One group is composed of 387 students (218 males, 169 females) in 1993, the other is composed of 420 students (181 males, 239 females) in 2006. According to the data analysis, the major characteristics and the changes over the 13 years of the development of creative thinking for student were explored and discussed. 1) The development trends of three types of creative thinking were all flexuous increase with grade moving up. The mean score of elementary school students was the lowest. And scores of junior high school students and senior high school students were significant higher than elementary school students’. 2) The most rapid increase occurred from the 5th grade to 6th grade. 3) Slumps occurred in the 7th grade in PNE curve and also in the 9th and 12th grades in TPC curves. There was no slump in FGA curve. 4) The girl’s scores in PNE and TPC tests were significant better than boys’. No obvious gender difference was found in FGA test. 5) The scores of three creative thinking tests in 2006 were all better than those in 1993. Separately, the scores of FGA and TPC tests in 2006 were significant higher than the corresponding scores in 1993, and no significant difference was found in two PNE tests. 6) There was no significant difference in the maximum scores of the three creative thinking tests between 2006 and 1993. 7) The most rapid developing period of three types of creative thinking in 2006 were the 5th grade and the 6th grade. The same period in 1993 was from the 7th grade to 9th grade. 8) In 1993, there is no significant gender difference for each creative thinking test. In 2006, PNE and TPC results had remarkable gender difference that girls were higher than boys. No significant gender difference was found in FGA tests.

学习不良少年的自我意识情绪研究

Self-conscious emotions (guilt, shame, embarrassment, pride, etc) are social emotions, and involve complex appraisals of how one’s behavior has been evaluated by the self and other people according to some value standards. Self-conscious emotions play an important role in human life by arousing and regulating human action tendencies, feeling and thoughts, which can promote people to work hard in achievement and task fields, maintain good interpersonal relationship according with social morality and expectation. The present study aimed to examine complex self-conscious emotional understanding capabilities in junior middle school students with and without learning disabilities, how the self-conscious emotions generate, and relationship between self-conscious emotions and self-representation in academic and interpersonal fields. Situational experimental methods were used in this research, and the results would give further supports for learning disabilities intervention. The main results of present research are as follows. 1. The study included 4 parts and 6 experiments. The aim of study 1 was to explore whether juveniles with learning disabilities understood complex self-conscious emotions differently from juveniles without learning disabilities. We surveyed the self-conscious emotions understanding of 37 learning disabilities and 45 non-learning disabilities with the emotional situation stories. The results indicated that the self-conscious emotional recognition in others for learning disabilities was lower than that of non-learning disabilities in different emotional recognition tasks. Moreover, children with learning disabilities were more inclined to recognize emotions in themselves as elemental emotions, however, children without learning disabilities were more inclined to recognize emotions in themselves as self-conscious emotions. 2. The aim of study 2 was to explore the generative mechanism of self-conscious emotions in academic and interpersonal fields with the method of situational experiments, namely to examine whether the self-discrepancy could cause self-conscious emotions for learning disabilities. 84 learning disabilities (in experiment 1) and 80 learning disabilities (in experiment 2) participated in the research, and the results were as follows. (1) Self discrepancy caused participants’ self-conscious emotions effectively in academic and interpersonal fields. One’s own and parents’ perspercive on the actual-ideal self-discrepancy both produced dejection-related emotions (shame、embarrassment) and agitation-related emotions (guilt). （2）In academic fields, children with learning disabilities caused higher level negative self-conscious emotions (embarrassment, shame, and guilt) and lower level positive self-conscious emotion (pride). However, there were no differences of self-conscious emotions for children with and without learning disabilities in non-academic fields. 3. The aim of study 3 was to explore what influence had self-conscious emotions on self-representation for learning disabilities with the method of situational experiments. 57 learning disabilities (in experiment 1) and 67 learning disabilities (in experiment 2) participated in the research, and the results were as follows. （1）The negative self-conscious for learning disabilities could influence their positive or negative academic and positive interpersonal self-representation stability, the ways in which self-evaluation of ability mediate these effects. However, there was no significant effect for the negative self-conscious and self-evaluation of ability predicting negative interpersonal self-representation stability. （2）The stability level of positive academic and interpersonal self-representation for learning disabilities was lower than that of non-learning disabilities. There was no significant difference of the negative interpersonal self-representation stability for children with and without learning disabilities in the positive self-conscious valence condition. However, the stability level of negative interpersonal self-representation for learning disabilities was lower than that of non-learning disabilities in the negative self-conscious valence condition. 4. The aim of study 4 was to explore the intervention effects for self-conscious emotions training course on emotional comprehension cability. 65 learning disabilities (34 in experimental group, and 31 in control group) participated in the research. The results showed that self-conscious emotions course boosted the self-conscious emotions apprehensive level for children with learning disabilities.

农村留守儿童心理行为现状及其影响因素研究

To investigate the psychological and behavioral status and their influencing factors of children left behind in rural areas in China, 604 students were chosen from primary fifth grade, junior second grade and senior first grade in high schools in local villages and towns of Chongqing and Guizhou to complete some investegations. The results showed that children left behind actually had some internalizing problems including depression, state-trait anxiety, social anxiety, low self-esteem and some social problems in campus; however, they had no delinquency or aggression behaviors. Low parents’ educational level, low life standards, no-good parent-child relationship, the long years parent spent outside, the long time parent spent outside every year, the young age of child when his parent left him, the low contact frequency between parent and child when parent went out for work, all can be the influencing factors made child behave some psychological or behavioral problems. Children left behind need some appropriate psychological intervention, to improve parent-child relationship, to help release internalizing problems and amend interpersonal relationship at school. Several advices may be useful to improve psychological and behavioral problems of children left behind, which are for parents who work outside home not to work long to 10 years, or stay out for work more than 10 months per year, or left child to work when he is younger than two years old, or contact child more than one month after the last contact when work outside home, and you’d better contact child once a day. All of these could be helpful for children left behind to overcome some psychological or behavioral problems.

企业经营风险决策的组织行为学研究

This thesis has investigated the risk preferences of the Chinese company managers in kinds of simulated decision situations and their perceptions of risk concerning types of business decisions. Four studies are conducted: Study I is utility analysis. 214 company managers and 46 middle - school headmasters have responded to Utility Measurement Survey. The results indicate: (1) The risk preferences of the managers vary in the different decision situations. In most of the situations, most of the managers are risk aversion; In few situations, they are risk-seeking. (2) In some of the decision situations, there are significant differences on risk preference between business managers and school headmasters, male managers and female managers, senior managers and junior managers, managers with high qualifications and managers with low qualifications, non-state-owned firms' managers and state-owned firms' managers, medium-small sized firms' managers and large-sized firms' managers. In the other situations there aren't significant differences between them. (3) In all of the decision situations, so significant differences on risk preference are found among managers with different marriage, experience, age and education. Study II is risky decision simulation. The Risky Decision Situations Simulation Survey is administered to 82 company managers. The result indicates that firm culture, business condition, survival limit and risk preference of the superior influence the managers' risk decision-making behavior. Study III is perceptions of business decision risks. 68 company managers have filled in Decision Cases Risk Perception Inventory. The results indicate: (1) Inaccurate market analysis and prediction, instable politics and the changes of economic policy are the more risky elements to strategy decision. (2) Erroneous market analysis and prediction, appearance of new technology and the changes of market demands are the more risky elements to investment decision. (3) Poor quality control, backward technology and too large stocks are the more risky elements to production decision. (4) Shortage of development fund, wrong choice in development project and limitation of the development ability are the more risky elements to new production development decision. (5) No payment of the foreign partner's capital, the changes of national relevant policy, difficulty in marketing, too high selling prices of foreign partner's equipments are the more risky elements to joint-venture decision. (6) Unfamilarity with oneself and misjudgement in qualification of oneself are the more risky elements to personnel decision. (7) Bad market of the product, defects in product quality and the changes of consumers demands are the more risky elements to marketing decision. (8) Wrong strategy and ambiguous goals are the more risky elements to public relation decision. (9) Violation of the law, ambiguous goals and poor creation are the more risky elements to advertisement decision. (10) Deterioration of diplomatic relations, unsuitable products for foreign consumers and unfamilarity with foreign market are the more risky elements to international business decision. Study IV is structured interview. 5 company managers have answered all questions of the Interview Questionnaire. The results indicate: (1) The managers think that risks are the possible unfavourable consequences of decisions; (2) The self-ratings of the managers coordinate with the results of utility measurement; (3) The managers admit that risks always accompany bussiness decision; (4) Individual difference is found among managers on risk perception. This thesis has also pointed out the important implications of the research and discussed several further questions.