Predictions of the arrival time of coronal mass ejections at 1AU: an analysis of the causes of errors

Three existing models of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) transit between the Sun and the Earth are compared to coronagraph and in situ observations: all three models are found to perform with a similar level of accuracy (i.e. an average error between observed and predicted 1AU transit times of approximately 11 h). To improve long-term space weather prediction, factors influencing CME transit are investigated. Both the removal of the plane of sky projection (as suffered by coronagraph derived speeds of Earth directed CMEs) and the use of observed values of solar wind speed, fail to significantly improve transit time prediction. However, a correlation is found to exist between the late/early arrival of an ICME and the width of the preceding sheath region, suggesting that the error is a geometrical effect that can only be removed by a more accurate determination of a CME trajectory and expansion. The correlation between magnetic field intensity and speed of ejecta at 1AU is also investigated. It is found to be weak in the body of the ICME, but strong in the sheath, if the upstream solar wind conditions are taken into account.

Errors associated with preparation of adult and paediatric parenteral nutrition in UK hospital pharmacies

Rationale: In UK hospitals, the preparation of all total parenteral nutrition (TPN) products must be made in the pharmacy as TPNs are categorised as high-risk injectables (NPSA/2007/20). The National Aseptic Error Reporting Scheme has been collecting data on pharmacy compounding errors in the UK since August 2003. This study reports on types of error associated with the preparation of TPNs, including the stage at which these were identified and potential and actual patient outcomes. Methods: Reports of compounding errors for the period 1/2004 - 3/2007 were analysed on an Excel spreadsheet. Results: Of a total of 3691 compounding error reports, 674 (18%) related to TPN products; 548 adult vs. 126 paediatric. A significantly higher proportion of adult TPNs (28% vs. 13% paediatric) were associated with labelling errors and a significantly higher proportion of paediatric TPNs (25% vs. 15% adult) were associated with incorrect transcriptions (Chi-Square Test; p<0.005). Labelling errors were identified equally by pharmacists (42%) and technicians (48%) with technicians detecting mainly at first check and pharmacists at final check. Transcription errors were identified mainly by technicians (65% vs. 27% pharmacist) at first check. Incorrect drug selection (13%) and calculation errors (9%) were associated with adult and paediatric TPN preparations in the same ratio. One paediatric TPN error detected at first check was considered potentially catastrophic; 31 (5%) errors were considered of major and 38 (6%) of moderate potential consequence. Five errors (2 moderate, 1 minor) were identified during or after administration. Conclusions: While recent UK patient safety initiatives are aimed at improving the safety of injectable medicines in clinical areas, the current study highlights safety problems that exist within pharmacy production units. This could be used in the creation of an error management tool for TPN compounding processes within hospital pharmacies.

The impact of a closed-loop electronic prescribing and administration system on prescribing errors, administration errors and staff time: a before-and-after study

Objectives: To assess the impact of a closed-loop electronic prescribing, automated dispensing, barcode patient identification and electronic medication administration record (EMAR) system on prescribing and administration errors, confirmation of patient identity before administration, and staff time. Design, setting and participants: Before-and-after study in a surgical ward of a teaching hospital, involving patients and staff of that ward. Intervention: Closed-loop electronic prescribing, automated dispensing, barcode patient identification and EMAR system. Main outcome measures: Percentage of new medication orders with a prescribing error, percentage of doses with medication administration errors (MAEs) and percentage given without checking patient identity. Time spent prescribing and providing a ward pharmacy service. Nursing time on medication tasks. Results: Prescribing errors were identified in 3.8% of 2450 medication orders pre-intervention and 2.0% of 2353 orders afterwards (p<0.001; χ2 test). MAEs occurred in 7.0% of 1473 non-intravenous doses pre-intervention and 4.3% of 1139 afterwards (p = 0.005; χ2 test). Patient identity was not checked for 82.6% of 1344 doses pre-intervention and 18.9% of 1291 afterwards (p<0.001; χ2 test). Medical staff required 15 s to prescribe a regular inpatient drug pre-intervention and 39 s afterwards (p = 0.03; t test). Time spent providing a ward pharmacy service increased from 68 min to 98 min each weekday (p = 0.001; t test); 22% of drug charts were unavailable pre-intervention. Time per drug administration round decreased from 50 min to 40 min (p = 0.006; t test); nursing time on medication tasks outside of drug rounds increased from 21.1% to 28.7% (p = 0.006; χ2 test). Conclusions: A closed-loop electronic prescribing, dispensing and barcode patient identification system reduced prescribing errors and MAEs, and increased confirmation of patient identity before administration. Time spent on medication-related tasks increased.

Characterising the background errors for the boundary-layer capping inversion

The one-dimensional variational assimilation of vertical temperature information in the presence of a boundary-layer capping inversion is studied. For an optimal analysis of the vertical temperature profile, an accurate representation of the background error covariances is essential. The background error covariances are highly flow-dependent due to the variability in the presence, structure and height of the boundary-layer capping inversion. Flow-dependent estimates of the background error covariances are shown by studying the spread in an ensemble of forecasts. A forecast of the temperature profile (used as a background state) may have a significant error in the position of the capping inversion with respect to observations. It is shown that the assimilation of observations may weaken the inversion structure in the analysis if only magnitude errors are accounted for as is the case for traditional data assimilation methods used for operational weather prediction. The positional error is treated explicitly here in a new data assimilation scheme to reduce positional error, in addition to the traditional framework to reduce magnitude error. The distribution of the positional error of the background inversion is estimated for use with the new scheme.

Errors in "Wavefunctions for the methane molecule"

Two errors in my paper “Wave functions for the methane molecule” [1] are corrected. They concern my f-harmonic approximation to the wave-function in the equilibrium configuration, for which the final expression for the wave function, the energy lowering, and the density function were all in error.

Adaptation to climate change and variability: farmer responses to intra-seasonal precipitation trends in South Africa

We describe the nature of recent (50 year) rainfall variability in the summer rainfall zone, South Africa, and how variability is recognised and responded to on the ground by farmers. Using daily rainfall data and self-organising mapping (SOM) we identify 12 internally homogeneous rainfall regions displaying differing parameters of precipitation change. Three regions, characterised by changing onset and timing of rains, rainfall frequencies and intensities, in Limpopo, North West and KwaZulu Natal provinces, were selected to investigate farmer perceptions of, and responses to, rainfall parameter changes. Village and household level analyses demonstrate that the trends and variabilities in precipitation parameters differentiated by the SOM analysis were clearly recognised by people living in the areas in which they occurred. A range of specific coping and adaptation strategies are employed by farmers to respond to climate shifts, some generic across regions and some facilitated by specific local factors. The study has begun to understand the complexity of coping and adaptation, and the factors that influence the decisions that are taken.

Intra-individual variation of flowers in Gunnera subgenus Panke (Gunneraceae) and proposed apomorphies for Gunnerales

A study of inflorescence and flower development in 12 species from four of the six subgenera of Gunnera (Gunneraceae) was carried out. In the species of subgenus Panke, initiation of floral apices along the partial inflorescences is acropetal but ends up in the late formation of a terminal flower, forming a cyme at maturity. The terminal flower is the largest and the most complete in terms of merosity and number of whorls and thus it is the most diagnostic in terms of species-level taxonomy. The lateral flowers undergo a basipetal gradient of organ reduction along the inflorescence, ranging from bisexual flowers (towards the distal region) to functionally (i.e. with staminodia) and structurally female flowers (towards the proximal region). Our results show that the terminal structure in Gunnera is a flower rather than a pseudanthium. The terminal flower is disymmetric, dimerous and bisexual, representing the common bauplan for Gunnera flowers. It has a differentiated perianth with two sepals and two alternate petals, the latter opposite the stamens and carpels. Comparisons with other members of the core eudicots with labile floral construction are addressed. We propose vegetative and floral putative synapomorphies for the sister-group relationship between Gunneraceae and Myrothamnaceae. (C) 2009 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2009, 160, 262-283.

Intra-specific variation affects the structure of the natural enemy assemblage attacking pea aphid colonies

1. Intra-specific variation in plant defence traits has been shown to profoundly affect herbivore community structure. Here we describe two experiments designed to test whether similar effects occur at higher trophic levels, by studying pea aphid–natural enemy interactions in a disused pasture in southern England. 2. In the first experiment, the numbers and identity of natural enemies attacking different monoclonal pea aphid colonies were recorded in a series of assays throughout the period of pea aphid activity. 3. In the summer assay, there was a significant effect of clone on the numbers of aphidophagous hoverfly larvae and the total number of non-hoverfly natural enemies recruited. Clone also appeared to influence the attack rate suffered by the primary predator in the system, the hoverfly Episyrphus balteatus, by Diplazon laetatorius, an ichneumonid parasitoid. Colonies were generally driven to extinction by hoverfly attack, resulting in the recording of low numbers of parasitoids and entomopathogens, suggesting intense intra-guild predation. 4. To further examine the influence of clonal variation on the recruitment of natural enemies, a second experiment was performed to monitor the temporal dynamics of community development. Colonies were destructively sampled every other day and the numbers of natural enemies attacking aphid colonies were recorded. These data demonstrated that clonal variation influenced the timing, abundance, and identity of natural enemies attacking aphid colonies. 5. Taken together, these data suggest that clonal variation may have a significant influence on the patterns of interactions between aphids and their natural enemies, and that such effects are likely to affect our understanding of the ecology and biological control of these insect herbivores.

Intra- and interspecific variations in vacuolar flavonoids among Ficus species from the Budongo Forest, Uganda

Leaves of 14 species of Ficus growing in the Budongo Forest, Uganda, were analysed for vacuolar flavonoids. Three to six accessions were studied for each species to see whether there was intraspecific chemical variation. Thirty-nine phenolic compounds were identified or characterised, including 14 flavonol O-glycosides, six flavone O-glycosides and 15 flavone C-glycosides. In some species the flavonoid glycosides were acylated. Ficus thonningii contained in addition four stilbenes including glycosides. Most of the species could be distinguished from each other on the basis of their flavonoid profiles, apart from Ficus sansibarica and Ficus saussureana, which showed a very strong intraspecific variation. However, on the whole flavonoid profiles were sufficiently distinct to help in future identifications.