Implications of seasonal climate forecasts on world wheat trade: a stochastic, dynamic analysis

Improvements in seasonal climate forecasts have potential economic implications for international agriculture. A stochastic, dynamic simulation model of the international wheat economy is developed to estimate the potential effects of seasonal climate forecasts for various countries' wheat production, exports and world trade. Previous studies have generally ignored the stochastic and dynamic aspects of the effects associated with the use of climate forecasts. This study shows the importance of these aspects. In particular with free trade, the use of seasonal forecasts results in increased producer surplus across all exporting countries. In fact, producers appear to capture a large share of the economic surplus created by using the forecasts. Further, the stochastic dimensions suggest that while the expected long-run benefits of seasonal forecasts are positive, considerable year-to-year variation in the distribution of benefits between producers and consumers should be expected. The possibility exists for an economic measure to increase or decrease over a 20-year horizon, depending on the particular sequence of years.

The contagion of international terrorism and its effects on the firm in an interconnected world

International trade and investment economies are highly integrated and interdependent and can be exploited by organized, international terrorism. The network of inter dependencies in the international economy means that a terrorist attack has the potential to disrupt the functioning of the network, so the effects can reverberate around the world. Governments can control the distributed effects of terrorism by auditing industrial networks to reveal and protect critical hubs and by promoting flexibility in production and distribution of goods and services to improve resilience in the economy. To explain these network effects, the authors draw on the new science of complex networks which has been applied to the physical sciences and is now increasingly being used to explain organizational and economic phenomena.

Small firm internationalisation; understanding the practice through an interpretive approach

The unit of analysis in firm internationalisation studies is the firm but this overlooks the importance of the individual in the internationalisation process. An evaluation of the dominant theories of firm internationalisation highlights an implicit dualistic ontology, that is, where research subject and object are considered to be separate and independent. Implications of this assumption are discussed after reviewing the dominant literatures on firm internationalisation. An alternative approach is proposed that focuses on understanding internationalisation of the firm from an individual practitioner’s perspective. It is suggested that contemporary firm internationalisation research has been hindered by its basic assumptions and its inherent researcher orientation. An interpretive phenomenographic approach is proposed as a means of achieving a first-person, practitioner’s perspective of the process of firm internationalisation, specifically in the context of the small firm. Preliminary interpretations of interviews with owners/managers of small Australian wineries are presented.

Optimising profitability and environmental trade-offs in managing cropping systems using differential evolution

Whilst traditional optimisation techniques based on mathematical programming techniques are in common use, they suffer from their inability to explore the complexity of decision problems addressed using agricultural system models. In these models, the full decision space is usually very large while the solution space is characterized by many local optima. Methods to search such large decision spaces rely on effective sampling of the problem domain. Nevertheless, problem reduction based on insight into agronomic relations and farming practice is necessary to safeguard computational feasibility. Here, we present a global search approach based on an Evolutionary Algorithm (EA). We introduce a multi-objective evaluation technique within this EA framework, linking the optimisation procedure to the APSIM cropping systems model. The approach addresses the issue of system management when faced with a trade-off between economic and ecological consequences.

Trade balance and real exchange rate:new evidence from Mauritius-UK trade

In this study we investigate whether there exists a relationship between the exchange rate and the trade balance using bilateral data for the Mauritius/UK trade. We also investigate whether following depreciation or a devaluation the trade balance initially worsens due to contractual agreements and subsequently improves when new contracts for international trade are signed. Using a variety of econometric techniques we are able to establish that there exists a long-run relationship between the trade balance and the real exchange rate. The existence of such a relationship signifies that the authorities would be able to use the exchange rate to steer the trade balance. We also find following a depreciation or devaluation the trade balance initially worsens due to contractual agreements but the trade balance subsequently improves when new contracts are signed. This signifies that if the authorities want to devalue their currency to improve the trade balance, the desired effect does not occur immediately but it occurs with a lag, in this particular case after approximately a year.

The European Union and global governance:a handbook

The role of the European Union in global politics has been of growing interest over the past decade. The EU is a key player in global institutions such as the World Trade Organization (WTO) and NATO. It continues to construct an emerging identity and project its values and interests throughout contemporary international relations. The capacity of the EU to both formulate and realise its goals, however, remains contested. Some scholars claim the EU’s `soft power’ attitude rivals that of the USA’s `hard power’ approach to international relations. Others view the EU as insufficiently able to produce a co-ordinated position to project upon global politics. Regardless of the position taken within this debate, the EU’s relationship with its external partners has an increasingly important impact upon economic, political and security concerns on an international level. Trade negotiations, military interventions, democracy promotion, international development and responses to the global economic crisis have all witnessed the EU playing a central role. This has seen the EU become both a major force in contemporary institutions of global governance and a template for supranational governance that might influence other attempts to construct regional and global institutions. This volume brings together a collection of leading EU scholars to provide a state-of-the-art overview covering these and other debates relating to the EU’s role in contemporary global governance. The Handbook is divided into four main sections: Part I: European studies and global governance – provides an overview and critical assessment of the leading theoretical approaches through which the EU’s role in global governance has been addressed within the literature. Part II: Institutions – examines the role played by the key EU institutions in pursuing a role for the EU in contemporary international relations. Part III: Policy and issue areas – explores developments within particular policy sectors, assessing the different impact that the EU has had in different issue areas, including foreign and security policy, environmental policy, common commercial policy, the Common Agricultural Policy, development policy, accession policy, the Neighbourhood Policy and conflict transformation. Part IV: The global multilevel governance complex and the EU – focuses on the relationship between the EU and the institutions, regions and countries with which it forms a global multilevel governance complex, including chapters on the EU’s relationship with the WTO, United Nations, East Asia, Africa and the USA.

Introduction

The role of the European Union in global politics has been of growing interest over the past decade. The EU is a key player in global institutions such as the World Trade Organization (WTO) and NATO. It continues to construct an emerging identity and project its values and interests throughout contemporary international relations. The capacity of the EU to both formulate and realise its goals, however, remains contested. Some scholars claim the EU’s `soft power’ attitude rivals that of the USA’s `hard power’ approach to international relations. Others view the EU as insufficiently able to produce a co-ordinated position to project upon global politics. Regardless of the position taken within this debate, the EU’s relationship with its external partners has an increasingly important impact upon economic, political and security concerns on an international level. Trade negotiations, military interventions, democracy promotion, international development and responses to the global economic crisis have all witnessed the EU playing a central role. This has seen the EU become both a major force in contemporary institutions of global governance and a template for supranational governance that might influence other attempts to construct regional and global institutions.

Carbon emissions locked - in trade

In recent years there has been a growing concern about the emission trade balance of countries. It is due to the fact that countries with an open economy are active players in the international trade, though trade is not only a major factor in forging a country’s economic structure anymore, but it does contribute to the movement of embodied emissions beyond the country borders. This issue is especially relevant from the carbon accounting policy’s point of view, as it is known that the production-based principle is in effect now in the Kyoto agreement. The study aims at revealing the interdependence of countries on international trade and its environmental impacts, and how the carbon accounting method plays a crucial role in evaluating a country’s environmental performance and its role in the climate mitigation processes. The input-output models are used in the methodology, as they provide an appropriate framework for this kind of environmental accounting; the analysis shows an international comparison of four European countries (Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Hungary) with extended trading activities and carbon emissions. Moving from the production-based approach in the climate policy, to the consumptionperspective principle and allocation [15], it would also help increasing the efficiency of emission reduction targets and the evaluation of the sustainability dimension and its impacts of international trade. The results of the study have shown that there is an importance of distinction between the two emission allocation approaches, both from global and local level point of view.

A horizontális és vertikális ágazaton belüli agrárkereskedelem meghatározó tényezői az EU új tagországaiban (Determinants of horizontal and vertical intra-industry agri-food trade in the new EU member-states)

Az ágazaton belüli kereskedelem egyre komolyabb szerepet tölt be a nemzetközi kereskedelemben, mind ez idáig azonban kevés mezőgazdasági témájú elemzés készült e témában. A cikk célja a horizontális és vertikális ágazaton belüli agrárkereskedelem meghatározó tényezőinek azonosítása az új tagországok és az EU–27 közötti kereskedelemben 1999–2010 között. Ehhez a szerző statikus és dinamikus panelmódszereket alkalmaz különböző specifikációkkal. Eredményei szerint a tényezőellátottság a horizontális ágazaton belüli kereskedelemmel negatív, míg a vertikálissal pozitív kapcsolatban áll. Az országok mérete az ágazaton belüli kereskedelem mindkét oldalával pozitívan, míg a távolság negatívan korrelál. Az eredmények azt is kimutatják, hogy az ágazaton belüli kereskedelem mértéke nagyobb, ha egy új tagország a kelet-közép-európai régióba exportál, és az is világossá vált, hogy az EU-csatlakozás pozitívan hatott az ágazaton belüli kereskedelemre, jelezve a gazdasági integráció kereskedelemösztönző szerepét. _____ Intra-industry trade (IIT) has a growing role in international trade, although the number of papers on its agricultural aspects is limited. This article identifies the determinants of horizontal and vertical intra-industry agri-food trade between new member-states (NMS) and the EU27 in 1999-2010, by applying to panel data static and dynamic models with different specifications. The results show that factor endowments are negatively related to agri-food horizontal intra-industry trade (HIIT), but positively to vertical intra-industry trade (VIIT). Economic size is positively and significantly related to both, while distance and IIT are found to be negatively related. This also suggests that HIIT and VIIT are greater if an NMS exports agri-food products to another NMS, while EU accession has had positive and significant impacts on both HIIT and VIIT, which suggests that economic integration fosters IIT.

Investigating the effect of geographical distances and cultural proximity on the Hungarian wine trade

Wine is a very special product from an economic, cultural, and sociological point of view. Wine culture and wine trade play an important role in Hungary. The effect of cultural and geographical proximity on international trade has already been proven in the international trade literature. The size of bilateral trade flows between any two countries can be approximated by the gravity theory of trade. The gravity model provides empirical evidence of the relationship between the size of the economies, the distances between them, and their trade. This paper seeks to analyse the effect of cultural and geographical proximity on Hungary’s bilateral wine trade between 2000 and 2012, employing the gravity equation. The analysis is based on data from the World Bank WITS, WDI, as well as CEPII, and WTO databases. I apply OLS, Random Effects, Poisson, Pseudo-Poisson-Maximum-Likelihood and Heckman two stage estimators to calculate the gravity regression. The results show that in the case of Hungary, cultural similarity and trade liberalisation have a positive impact, while geographical distance, landlockedness, and contiguity have a negative impact on Hungarian wine exports.