Case-to-case variability of predictability of deep convection in a mesoscale model

Successful quantitative precipitation forecasts under convectively unstable conditions depend on the ability of the model to capture the location, timing and intensity of convection. Ensemble forecasts of two mesoscale convective outbreaks over the UK are examined with a view to understanding the nature and extent of their predictability. In addition to a control forecast, twelve ensemble members are run for each case with the same boundary conditions but with perturbations added to the boundary layer. The intention is to introduce perturbations of appropriate magnitude and scale so that the large-scale behaviour of the simulations is not changed. In one case, convection is in statistical equilibrium with the large-scale flow. This places a constraint on the total precipitation, but the location and intensity of individual storms varied. In contrast, the other case was characterised by a large-scale capping inversion. As a result, the location of individual storms was fixed, but their intensities and the total precipitation varied strongly. The ensemble shows case-to-case variability in the nature of predictability of convection in a mesoscale model, and provides additional useful information for quantitative precipitation forecasting.

Combined action of S-carvone and mild heat treatment on Listeria monocytogenes Scott A

The combined action of the plant-derived volatile, S-carvone, and mild heat treatment on the food-borne pathogen, Listeria monocytogenes, was evaluated. The viability of exponential phase cultures grown at 8 °C could be reduced by 1·3 log units after exposure to S-carvone (5 mmol l−1) for 30 min at 45 °C, while individual treatment with S-carvone or exposure to 45 °C for 30 min did not result in a loss in viability. Other plant-derived volatiles, namely carvacrol, cinnamaldehyde, thymol and decanal, were also found to reduce the viability of L. monocytogenes in combination with the same mild heat treatment at concentrations of 1·75 mmol l−1, 2·5 mmol l−1, 1·5 mmol l−1 and 2 mmol l−1, respectively. These findings show that essential oil compounds can play an important role in minimally processed foods, and can be used in the concept of Hurdle Technology to reduce the intensity of heat treatment or other individual hurdles.

An in-vitro model for studying the interaction of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and other enteropathogens with bovine primary cell cultures

Sections of kidney, trachea, ileum, colon, rectum and rumen were removed at post mortem from a neonatal calf and, with the exception of the rumen, primary cell lines were established for each of the cell types. The adherence of enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) serotype O157:H7, enteropathogenic E. coli (EPEC) serotype O111, E. coli K12 (a laboratory adapted non-pathogenic strain) and Salmonella enterica serotype Typhimurium was assayed on each cell type. For all adherence assays on all cell lines, EHEC O157:H7 adhered to a significantly greater extent than the other bacteria. S. Typhimurium and EPEC O111 adhered to a similar extent to one another, whereas E. coli K12 was significantly less adherent by 100-fold. In all cell types, > 10% of adherent S. Typhimurium bacteria invaded, whereas c. 0.01-0.1% of adherent EHEC O157:H7 and EPEC O111 bacteria invaded, although they are regarded as non-invasive. EHEC O157 generated actin re-arrangements in all cell types as demonstrated by fluorescent actin staining (FAS) under densely packed bacterial micro-colonies. EPEC O111 readily generated the localised adherent phenotype on bovine cells but generated only densely packed micro-colonies on HEp-2 cells. The intensity of actin re-arrangements induced in bovine cells by EPEC O111 was less than that induced by EHEC O157:H7. The intimate attachment on all cell types by both EHEC O157:H7 and EPEC O111 was clearly demonstrated by scanning electron microscopy.

Middle and Late Cenomanian anoxia in shallow and deeper shelf environments of western Morocco

The response of shallow-water sequences to oceanic anoxic event 2 and mid-Cenomanian events 1a and 1b was investigated along the west African margin of Morocco north of Agadir (Azazoul) and correlated with the deep-water sequence of the Tarfaya Basin (Mohammed Beach) based on biostratigraphy, mineralogy, phosphorus and stable isotopes. In the deeper Mohammed Beach section results show double peaks in δ13Corg for mid-Cenomanian events 1a and 1b (Rotalipora reicheli biozone, lower CC10a biozone), the characteristic oceanic anoxic event 2 δ13C excursion (Rotalipora cushmani extinction, top of CC10a biozone) and laminated (anoxic) black shale. In the shallow environment north of Agadir, a fluctuating sea-level associated with dysoxic, brackish and mesotrophic conditions prevailed during the middle to late Cenomanian, as indicated by oyster biostromes, nannofossils, planktonic and benthonic foraminiferal assemblages. Anoxic conditions characteristic of oceanic anoxic event 2 (for example, laminated black shales) did not reach into shallow-water environments until the maximum transgression of the early Turonian. Climate conditions decoupled along the western margin of Morocco between mid-Cenomanian event 1b and the Cenomanian–Turonian boundary, as also observed in eastern Tethys. North of Agadir alternating humid and dry seasonal conditions prevailed, whereas in the Tarfaya Basin the climate was dry and seasonal. This climatic decoupling can be attributed to variations in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and in the intensity of the north-east trade winds in tropical areas.

Baculovirus superinfection: a probable restriction factor on the surface display of proteins for library screening

In addition to the expression of recombinant proteins, baculoviruses have been developed as a platform for the display of complex eukaryotic proteins on the surface of virus particles or infected insect cells. Surface display has been used extensively for antigen presentation and targeted gene delivery but is also a candidate for the display of protein libraries for molecular screening. However, although baculovirus gene libraries can be efficiently expressed and displayed on the surface of insect cells, target gene selection is inefficient probably due to super-infection which gives rise to cells expressing more than one protein. In this report baculovirus superinfection of Sf9 cells has been investigated by the use of two recombinant multiple nucleopolyhedrovirus carrying green or red fluorescent proteins under the control of both early and late promoters (vAcBacGFP and vAcBacDsRed). The reporter gene expression was detected 8 hours after the infection of vAcBacGFP and cells in early and late phases of infection could be distinguished by the fluorescence intensity of the expressed protein. Simultaneous infection with vAcBacGFP and vAcBacDsRed viruses each at 0.5 MOI resulted in 80% of infected cells coexpressing the two fluorescent proteins at 48 hours post infection (hpi), and subsequent infection with the two viruses resulted in similar co-infection rate. Most Sf9 cells were re-infectable within the first several hours post infection, but the reinfection rate then decreased to a very low level by 16 hpi. Our data demonstrate that Sf9 cells were easily super-infectable during baculovirus infection, and super-infection could occur simultaneously at the time of the primary infection or subsequently during secondary infection by progeny viruses. The efficiency of super-infection may explain the difficulties of baculovirus display library screening but would benefit the production of complex proteins requiring co-expression of multiple polypeptides.

Immunomodulatory effects of a probiotic drink containing Lactobacillus casei Shirota in healthy older volunteers

PURPOSE: There is growing evidence that probiotics confer health benefits to the host by modulating immune function, especially in older people, where immunosenescence is a feature even of healthy ageing. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of a probiotic drink containing Lactobacillus casei Shirota (LcS) on immune function in a healthy non-immunocompromised older population. METHODS: Thirty healthy old volunteers were recruited into a randomized placebo-controlled, single-blind crossover study. The volunteers were supplemented with the probiotic drink containing 1.3 × 10(10) CFU LcS or skimmed milk per day for 4 weeks, followed by 4 weeks of washout and were crossed over to the other treatment. Peripheral blood and saliva samples were collected at baseline and end of each treatment. RESULTS: Probiotic consumption was associated with a significant increase in natural killer (NK) cell activity relative to baseline and a significant decrease in the mean fluorescence intensity of CD25 expression in the resting T cells compared with placebo. Additionally, there was a trend towards an increased ratio of IL-10 to IL-12 relative to baseline after LcS intake. CONCLUSIONS: Consumption of a probiotic drink containing LcS improved NK cell activity and tended to produce a more anti-inflammatory cytokine profile in an older population.

Behavioral and spatial analysis of extraterritorial movements in red foxes (Vulpes vulpes)

Abstract: Movements away from the natal or home territory are important to many ecological processes, including gene flow, population regulation, and disease epidemiology, yet quantitative data on these behaviors are lacking. Red foxes exhibit 2 periods of extraterritorial movements: when an individual disperses and when males search neighboring territories for extrapair copulations during the breeding season. Using radiotracking data collected at 5-min interfix intervals, we compared movement parameters, including distance moved, speed of movement, and turning angles, of dispersal and reproductive movements to those made during normal territorial movements; the instantaneous separation distances of dispersing and extraterritorial movements to the movements of resident adults; and the frequency of locations of 95%, 60%, and 30% harmonic mean isopleths of adult fox home territories to randomly generated fox movements. Foxes making reproductive movements traveled farther than when undertaking other types of movement, and dispersal movements were straighter. Reproductive and dispersal movements were faster than territorial movements and also differed in intensity of search and thoroughness. Foxes making dispersal movements avoided direct contact with territorial adults and moved through peripheral areas of territories. The converse was true for reproductive movements. Although similar in some basic characteristics, dispersal and reproductive movements are fundamentally different both behaviorally and spatially and are likely to have different ultimate purposes and contrasting effects on spatial processes such as disease transmission

The signature of ENSO in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude seasonal mean flow and high-frequency intraseasonal variability

The impact of pronounced positive and negative sea surface temperature (STT) anomalies in the tropical Pacific associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon on the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during the boreal winter season is investigated. This includes both the impact on the seasonal mean flow and on the intraseasonal variability on synoptic time scales. Moreover, the interaction between the transient fluctuations on these times scales and the mean circulation is examined. Both data from an ensemble of five simulations with the ECHAM3 atmospheric general circulation model at a horizontal resolution of T42 each covering the period from 1979 through 1992 and operational analyses from ECMWF for the corresponding period are examined. In each of the simulations observed SSTs for the period of investigation are given as lower boundary forcing, but different atmospheric initial conditions are prescribed. The simulations with ECHAM3 reveal a distinct impact of the pronounced SST-anomalies in the tropical Pacific on the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during El Niño as well as during La Niña events. These changes in the atmospheric circulation, which are found to be highly significant in the Pacific/North American as well as in the Atlantic/European region, are consistent with the essential results obtained from the analyses. The pronounced SST-anomalies in the tropical Pacific lead to changes in the mean circulation, which are characterized by typical circulation patterns. These changes in the mean circulation are accompanied by marked variations of the activity of the transient fluctuations on synoptic time scales, that are changes in both the kinetic energy on these time scales and the atmospheric transports of momentum and heat accomplished by the short baroclinic waves. The synoptic disturbances, on the other hand, play also an important role in controlling the changes in the mean circulation associated with the ENSO phenomenon. They maintain these typical circulation patterns via barotropic, but counteract them via baroclinic processes. The hypothesis of an impact of the ENSO phenomenon in the Atlantic/European region can be supported. As the determining factor the intensification (reduction) of the Aleutian low and the simultaneous reduction (intensification) of the Icelandic low during El Niño and during La Niña events respectively, is identified. The changes in the intensity of the Aleutian low during the ENSO-events are accompanied by an alteration of the transport of momentum caused by the short baroclinic waves over the North American continent in such a way that the changes in the intensity of the Icelandic low during El Niño as well as during La Niña events are maintained.

Impact of global warming on the Asian winter monsoon in a coupled GCM

The Asian winter monsoon (AWM) response to the global warming was investigated through a long-term integration of the transient greenhouse warming with the ECHAM4/OPYC3 CGCM. The physics of the response was studied through analyses of the impact of the global warming on the variations of the ocean and land contrast near the ground in the Asian and western Pacific region and the east Asian trough and jet stream in the middle and upper troposphere. Forcing of transient eddy activity on the zonal circulation over the Asian and western Pacific region was also analyzed. It is found that in the global warming scenario the winter northeasterlies along the Pacific coast of the Eurasian continent weaken systematically and significantly, and intensity of the AWM reduces evidently, but the AWM variances on the interannual and interdecadal scales are not affected much by the global warming. It is suggested that the global warming makes the climate over the most part of Asia to be milder with enhanced moisture in winter. In the global warming scenario the contrasts of the sea level pressure and the near-surface temperature between the Asian continent and the Pacific Ocean become significantly smaller, northward and eastward shifts and weakening of the east Asian trough and jet stream in the middle and upper troposphere are found. As a consequence, the cold air in the AWM originating from the east Asian trough and high latitudes is less powerful. In addition, feedback of the transient activity also makes a considerable contribution to the higher-latitude shift of the jet stream over the North Pacific in the global warming scenario.

Synoptic scale disturbances of the Indian Summer Monsoon as simulated in a high resolution climate model

Hamburg atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM3 at T106 resolution (1.125' lat.Aon.) has considerable skill in reproducing the observed seasonal reversal of mean sea level pressure, the location of the summer heat low as well as the position of the monsoon trough over the Indian subcontinent. The present-day climate and its seasonal cycle are realistically simulated by the model over this region. The model simulates the structure, intensity, frequency, movement and lifetime of monsoon depressions remarkably well. The number of monsoon depressions/storms simulated by the model in a year ranged from 5 to 12 with an average frequency of 8.4 yr-', not significantly different from the observed climatology. The model also simulates the interannual variability in the formation of depressions over the north Bay of Bengal during the summer monsoon season. In the warmer atmosphere under doubled CO2 conditions, the number of monsoon depressions/cyclonic storms forming in Indian seas in a year ranged from 5 to 11 with an average frequency of 7.6 yr-', not significantly different from those inferred in the control run of the model. However, under doubled CO2 conditions, fewer depressions formed in the month of June. Neither the lowest central pressure nor the maximum wind speed changes appreciably in monsoon depressions identified under simulated enhanced greenhouse conditions. The analysis suggests there will be no significant changes in the number and intensity of monsoon depressions in a warmer atmosphere.

Examination of wind storms over Central Europe with respect to circulation weather types and NAO phases

The occurrence of wind storms in Central Europe is investigated with respect to large-scale atmospheric flow and local wind speeds in the investigation area. Two different methods of storm identification are applied for Central Europe as the target region: one based on characteristics of large-scale flow (circulation weather types, CWT) and the other on the occurrence of extreme wind speeds. The identified events are examined with respect to the NAO phases and CWTs under which they occur. Pressure patterns, wind speeds and cyclone tracks are investigated for storms assigned to different CWTs. Investigations are based on ERA40 reanalysis data. It is shown that about 80% of the storm days in Central Europe are connected with westerly flow and that Central European storm events primarily occur during a moderately positive NAO phase, while strongly positive NAO phases (6.4% of all days) account for more than 20% of the storms. A storm occurs over Central Europe during about 10% of the days with a strong positive NAO index. The most frequent pathway of cyclone systems associated with storms over Central Europe leads from the North Atlantic over the British Isles, North Sea and southern Scandinavia into the Baltic Sea. The mean intensity of the systems typically reaches its maximum near the British Isles. Differences between the characteristics for storms identified from the CWT identification procedure (gale days, based on MSLP fields) and those from extreme winds at Central European grid points are small, even though only 70% of the storm days agree. While most storms occur during westerly flow situations, specific characteristics of storms during the other CWTs are also considered. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

European storminess and associated circulation weather types: future changes deduced from a multi-model ensemble of GCM simulations

A range of possible changes in the frequency and characteristics of European wind storms under future climate conditions was investigated on the basis of a multi-model ensemble of 9 coupled global climate model (GCM) simulations for the 20th and 21st centuries following the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. A multi-model approach allowed an estimation of the (un)certainties of the climate change signals. General changes in large-scale atmospheric flow were analysed, the occurrence of wind storms was quantified, and atmospheric features associated with wind storm events were considered. Identified storm days were investigated according to atmospheric circulation, associated pressure patterns, cyclone tracks and wind speed patterns. Validation against reanalysis data revealed that the GCMs are in general capable of realistically reproducing characteristics of European circulation weather types (CWTs) and wind storms. Results are given with respect to frequency of occurrence, storm-associated flow conditions, cyclone tracks and specific wind speed patterns. Under anthropogenic climate change conditions (SRES A1B scenario), increased frequency of westerly flow during winter is detected over the central European investigation area. In the ensemble mean, the number of detected wind storm days increases between 19 and 33% for 2 different measures of storminess, only 1 GCM revealed less storm days. The increased number of storm days detected in most models is disproportionately high compared to the related CWT changes. The mean intensity of cyclones associated with storm days in the ensemble mean increases by about 10 (±10)% in the Eastern Atlantic, near the British Isles and in the North Sea. Accordingly, wind speeds associated with storm events increase significantly by about 5 (±5)% over large parts of central Europe, mainly on days with westerly flow. The basic conclusions of this work remain valid if different ensemble contructions are considered, leaving out an outlier model or including multiple runs of one particular model.

Factors contributing to the development of extreme North Atlantic cyclones and their relationship with the NAO

The occurrence of extreme cyclones is analysed in terms of their relationship to the NAO phase and the dominating environmental variables controlling their intensification. These are latent energy (equivalent potential temperature 850 hPa is used as an indicator), upper-air baroclinicity, horizontal divergence and jet stream strength. Cyclones over the North Atlantic are identified and tracked using a numerical algorithm, permitting a detailed analysis of their life cycles. Extreme cyclones are selected as the 10% most severe in terms of intensity. Investigations focus on the main strengthening phase of each cyclone. The environmental factors are related to the NAO, which affects the location and orientation of the cyclone tracks, thus explaining why extreme cyclones occur more (less) frequently during strong positive (negative) NAO phases. The enhanced number of extreme cyclones in positive NAO phases can be explained by the larger area with suitable growth conditions, which is better aligned with the cyclone tracks and is associated with increased cyclone life time and intensity. Moreover, strong intensification of cyclones is frequently linked to the occurrence of extreme values of growth factors in the immediate vicinity of the cyclone centre. Similar results are found for ECHAM5/OM1 for present day conditions, demonstrating that relationships between the environment factors and cyclones are also valid in the GCM. For future climate conditions (following the SRES A1B scenario), the results are similar, but a small increase of the frequency of extreme values is detected near the cyclone cores. On the other hand, total cyclone numbers decrease by 10% over the North Atlantic. An exception is the region near the British Isles, which features increased track density and intensity of extreme cyclones irrespective of the NAO phase. These changes are associated with an intensified jet stream close to Europe. Moreover, an enhanced frequency of explosive developments over the British Isles is found, leading to more frequent windstorms affecting Europe.

Changing European storm loss potentials under modified climate conditions according to ensemble simulations of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GMC

A simple storm loss model is applied to an ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM simulations in order to estimate changes of insured loss potentials over Europe in the 21st century. Losses are computed based on the daily maximum wind speed for each grid point. The calibration of the loss model is performed using wind data from the ERA40-Reanalysis and German loss data. The obtained annual losses for the present climate conditions (20C, three realisations) reproduce the statistical features of the historical insurance loss data for Germany. The climate change experiments correspond to the SRES-Scenarios A1B and A2, and for each of them three realisations are considered. On average, insured loss potentials increase for all analysed European regions at the end of the 21st century. Changes are largest for Germany and France, and lowest for Portugal/Spain. Additionally, the spread between the single realisations is large, ranging e.g. for Germany from −4% to +43% in terms of mean annual loss. Moreover, almost all simulations show an increasing interannual variability of storm damage. This assessment is even more pronounced if no adaptation of building structure to climate change is considered. The increased loss potentials are linked with enhanced values for the high percentiles of surface wind maxima over Western and Central Europe, which in turn are associated with an enhanced number and increased intensity of extreme cyclones over the British Isles and the North Sea.

Technical note: Organics-induced fluorescence in Raman studies of sulfuric acid aerosols

Fluorescence is a troublesome side effect in laboratory Raman studies on sulfuric acid solutions and aerosol particles. We performed experiments showing that organic matter induces fluorescence in H2SO4/H2O solutions. The intensity of the fluorescence signal appears to be almost independent of the concentration of the organic substances, but depends strongly on the sulfuric acid concentration. The ubiquity of organic substances in the atmosphere, their relatively high abundance, and the insensitivity of the fluorescence with respect to their concentrations will render most acidic natural aerosols subject to absorption and fluorescence, possibly influencing climate forcing. We show that, while fluorescence may in the future become a valuable tool of aerosol diagnostics, the concurrent absorption is too small to significantly affect the atmosphere's radiative balance.