Towards an integrated forecasting system for pelagic fisheries

First results of a coupled modeling and forecasting system for the pelagic fisheries are being presented. The system consists currently of three mathematically fundamentally different model subsystems: POLCOMS-ERSEM providing the physical-biogeochemical environment implemented in the domain of the North-West European shelf and the SPAM model which describes sandeel stocks in the North Sea. The third component, the SLAM model, connects POLCOMS-ERSEM and SPAM by computing the physical-biological interaction. Our major experience by the coupling model subsystems is that well-defined and generic model interfaces are very important for a successful and extendable coupled model framework. The integrated approach, simulating ecosystem dynamics from physics to fish, allows for analysis of the pathways in the ecosystem to investigate the propagation of changes in the ocean climate and lower trophic levels to quantify the impacts on the higher trophic level, in this case the sandeel population, demonstrated here on the base of hindcast data. The coupled forecasting system is tested for some typical scientific questions appearing in spatial fish stock management and marine spatial planning, including determination of local and basin scale maximum sustainable yield, stock connectivity and source/sink structure. Our presented simulations indicate that sandeels stocks are currently exploited close to the maximum sustainable yield, but large uncertainty is associated with determining stock maximum sustainable yield due to stock eigen dynamics and climatic variability. Our statistical ensemble simulations indicates that the predictive horizon set by climate interannual variability is 2–6 yr, after which only an asymptotic probability distribution of stock properties, like biomass, are predictable.

Multi-decadal oceanic ecological datasets and their application in marine policy and management

Long-term biological time-series in the oceans are relatively rare. Using the two longest of these we show how the information value of such ecological time-series increases through space and time in terms of their potential policy value. We also explore the co-evolution of these oceanic biological time-series with changing marine management drivers. Lessons learnt from reviewing these sequences of observations provide valuable context for the continuation of existing time-series and perspective for the initiation of new time-series in response to rapid global change. Concluding sections call for a more integrated approach to marine observation systems and highlight the future role of ocean observations in adaptive marine management.

Enhancing the Global Ocean Observing System to meet evidence based needs for the ecosystem-based management of coastal ecosystem services

Ecosystem-based approaches (EBAs) to managing anthropogenic pressures on ecosystems, adapting to changes in ecosystem states (indicators of ecosystem health), and mitigating the impacts of state changes on ecosystem services are needed for sustainable development. EBAs are informed by integrated ecosystem assessments (IEAs) that must be compiled and updated frequently for EBAs to be effective. Frequently updated IEAs depend on the sustained provision of data and information on pressures, state changes, and impacts of state changes on services. Nowhere is this truer than in the coastal zone, where people and ecosystem services are concentrated and where anthropogenic pressures converge. This study identifies the essential indicator variables required for the sustained provision of frequently updated IEAs, and offers an approach to establishing a global network of coastal observations within the framework of the Global Ocean Observing System. The need for and challenges of capacity-building are highlighted, and examples are given of current programmes that could contribute to the implementation of a coastal ocean observing system of systems on a global scale. This illustrates the need for new approaches to ocean governance that can achieve coordinated integration of existing programmes and technologies as a first step towards this goal.

Implementation of Discrete and Integrated IT: The Role of Organisational Structure and Culture

ntegrated organisational IT systems, such as enterprise resource planning (ERP), supply chain management (SCM) and digital manufacturing (DM), have promised and delivered substantial performance benefits to many adopting firms. However, implementations of such systems have tended to be problematic. ERP projects, in particular, are prone to cost and time overruns, not delivering anticipated benefits and often being abandoned before completion. While research has developed around IT implementation, this has focused mainly on standalone (or discrete), as opposed to integrated, IT systems. Within this literature, organisational (i.e., structural and cultural) characteristics have been found to influence implementation success. The key aims of this research are (a) to investigate the role of organisational characteristics in determining IT implementation success; (b) to determine whether their influence differs for integrated IT and discrete IT projects; and (c) to develop specific guidelines for managers of integrated IT implementations. An in-depth comparative case study of two IT projects was conducted within a major aerospace manufacturing company.

Secondary prevention in the clinical management of patients with cardiovascular diseases. Core components, standards and outcome measures for referral and delivery.

Despite major improvements in diagnostics and interventional therapies, cardiovascular diseases remain a major health care and socio-economic burden both in western and developing countries, in which this burden is increasing in close correlation to economic growth. Health authorities and the general population have started to recognize that the fight against these diseases can only be won if their burden is faced by increasing our investment on interventions in lifestyle changes and prevention. There is an overwhelming evidence of the efficacy of secondary prevention initiatives including cardiac rehabilitation in terms of reduction in morbidity and mortality. However, secondary prevention is still too poorly implemented in clinical practice, often only on selected populations and over a limited period of time. The development of systematic and full comprehensive preventive programmes is warranted, integrated in the organization of national health systems. Furthermore, systematic monitoring of the process of delivery and outcomes is a necessity. Cardiology and secondary prevention, including cardiac rehabilitation, have evolved almost independently of each other and although each makes a unique contribution it is now time to join forces under the banner of preventive cardiology and create a comprehensive model that optimizes long term outcomes for patients and reduces the future burden on health care services. These are the aims that the Cardiac Rehabilitation Section of the European Association for Cardiovascular Prevention & Rehabilitation has foreseen to promote secondary preventive cardiology in clinical practice.

Design, recruitment, logistics, and data management of the GEHA (Genetics of Healthy Ageing) project

In 2004, the integrated European project GEHA (Genetics of Healthy Ageing) was initiated with the aim of identifying genes involved in healthy ageing and longevity. The first step in the project was the recruitment of more than 2500 pairs of siblings aged 90 years or more together with one younger control person from 15 areas in 11 European countries through a coordinated and standardised effort. A biological sample, preferably a blood sample, was collected from each participant, and basic physical and cognitive measures were obtained together with information about health, life style, and family composition. From 2004 to 2008 a total of 2535 families comprising 5319 nonagenarian siblings were identified and included in the project. In addition, 2548 younger control persons aged 50-75 years were recruited. A total of 2249 complete trios with blood samples from at least two old siblings and the younger control were formed and are available for genetic analyses (e.g. linkage studies and genome-wide association studies). Mortality follow-up improves the possibility of identifying families with the most extreme longevity phenotypes. With a mean follow-up time of 3.7 years the number of families with all participating siblings aged 95 years or more has increased by a factor of 5 to 750 families compared to when interviews were conducted. Thus, the GEHA project represents a unique source in the search for genes related to healthy ageing and longevity.

Developing an integrated hydrograph separation and lumped modelling approach to quantifying hydrological pathways in Irish river catchments

An appreciation of the quantity of streamflow derived from the main hydrological pathways involved in transporting diffuse contaminants is critical when addressing a wide range of water resource management issues. In order to assess hydrological pathway contributions to streams, it is necessary to provide feasible upper and lower bounds for flows in each pathway. An important first step in this process is to provide reliable estimates of the slower responding groundwater pathways and subsequently the quicker overland and interflow pathways. This paper investigates the effectiveness of a multi-faceted approach applying different hydrograph separation techniques, supplemented by lumped hydrological modelling, for calculating the Baseflow Index (BFI), for the development of an integrated approach to hydrograph separation. A semi-distributed, lumped and deterministic rainfall runoff model known as NAM has been applied to ten catchments (ranging from 5 to 699 km2). While this modelling approach is useful as a validation method, NAM itself is also an important tool for investigation. These separation techniques provide a large variation in BFI, a difference of 0.741 predicted for BFI in a catchment with the less reliable fixed and sliding interval methods and local minima turning point methods included. This variation is reduced to 0.167 with these methods omitted. The Boughton and Eckhardt algorithms, while quite subjective in their use, provide quick and easily implemented approaches for obtaining physically realistic hydrograph separations. It is observed that while the different separation techniques give varying BFI values for each of the catchments, a recharge coefficient approach developed in Ireland, when applied in conjunction with the Master recession Curve Tabulation method, predict estimates in agreement with those obtained using the NAM model, and these estimates are also consistent with the study catchments’ geology. These two separation methods, in conjunction with the NAM model, were selected to form an integrated approach to assessing BFI in catchments.

Introducing Automated Management Through Iteratively Increased Automation and Indicators

Introducing automation into a managed environment includes significant initial overhead and abstraction, creating a disconnect between the administrator and the system. In order to facilitate the transition to automated management, this paper proposes an approach whereby automation increases gradually, gathering data from the task deployment process. This stored data is analysed to determine the task outcome status and can then be used for comparison against future deployments of the same task and alerting the administrator to deviations from the expected outcome. Using a machinelearning
approach, the automation tool can learn from the administrator's reaction to task failures and eventually react to faults autonomously.

An Integrated Approach to Quantifying Groundwater and Surface Water Contributions of Stream Flow

The management of water resources in Ireland prior to the Water Framework Directive (WFD) has focussed on surface water and groundwater as separate entities. A critical element to the successful implementation of the
WFD is to improve our understanding of the interaction between the two and flow mechanisms by which groundwaters discharge to surface waters. An improved understanding of the contribution of groundwater to surface water is required for the classification of groundwater body status and the determination of groundwater quality thresholds. The results of the study will also have a wider application to many areas of the WFD.
A subcommittee of the WFD Groundwater Working Group (GWWG) has been formed to develop a methodology to estimate the groundwater contribution to Irish Rivers. The group has selected a number of analytical techniques to quantify components of stream flow in an Irish context (Master Recession Curve, Unit Hydrograph, Flood Studies Report methodologies and
hydrogeological analytical modelling). The components of stream flow that can be identified include deep groundwater, intermediate and overland. These analyses have been tested on seven pilot catchments that have a variety of hydrogeological settings and have been used to inform and constrain a mathematical model. The mathematical model used was the NAM (NedbØr-AfstrØmnings-Model) rainfall-runoff model which is a module of DHIs MIKE 11 modelling suite. The results from these pilot catchments have been used to develop a decision model based on catchment descriptors from GIS datasets for the selection of NAM parameters. The datasets used include the mapping of aquifers, vulnerability and subsoils, soils, the Digital Terrain Model, CORINE and lakes. The national coverage of the GIS datasets has allowed the extrapolation of the mathematical model to regional catchments across Ireland.

Towards groundwater security in coastal East Africa: initiating a regional research network and integrated hydrogeologic, climatic & socio-economic observatories in coastal aquifers of the Comoros Islands, Kenya and Tanzania

African coastal regions are expected to experience the highest rates of population growth in coming decades. Fresh groundwater resources in the coastal zone of East Africa (EA) are highly vulnerable to seawater intrusion. Increasing water demand is leading to unsustainable and ill-planned well drilling and abstraction. Wells supplying domestic, industrial and agricultural needs are or have become, in many areas, too saline for use. Climate change, including weather changes and sea level rise, is expected to exacerbate this problem. The multiplicity of physical, demographic and socio-economic driving factors makes this a very challenging issue for management. At present the state and probable evolution of coastal aquifers in EA are not well documented. The UPGro project 'Towards groundwater security in coastal East Africa' brings together teams from Kenya, Tanzania, Comoros Islands and Europe to address this knowledge gap. An integrative multidisciplinary approach, combining the expertise of hydrogeologists, hydrologists and social scientists, is investigating selected sites along the coastal zone in each country. Hydrogeologic observatories have been established in different geologic and climatic settings representative of the coastal EA region, where focussed research will identify the current status of groundwater and identify future threats based on projected demographic and climate change scenarios. Researchers are also engaging with end users as well as local community and stakeholder groups in each area in order to understanding the issues most affecting the communities and searching sustainable strategies for addressing these.

Autonomic management of multiple non-functional concerns in behavioural skeletons

We introduce and address the problem of concurrent autonomic management of different non-functional concerns in parallel applications build as a hierarchical composition of behavioural skeletons. We first define the problems arising when multiple concerns are dealt with by independent managers, then we propose a methodology supporting coordinated management, and finally we discuss how autonomic management of multiple concerns may be implemented in a typical use case. Being based on the behavioural skeleton concept proposed in the CoreGRID GCM, it is anticipated that the methodology will be readily integrated into the current reference implementation of GCM based on Java Pro Active and running on top of major grid middleware systems.

Integrated Earth Resistivity Tomography (ERT) and Multilevel Gas Sampling: A Tool to Map Geogenic and Anthropogenic Methane Accumulation on Brownfield Sites

Soil gas emissions of methane and carbon dioxide on brownfield sites are usually attributed to anthropogenic activities; however geogenic sources of soil gas are often not considered during site investigation and risk management strategies. This paper presents a field study at a redeveloped brownfield site on a flood plain to identify accumulations of methane biogas trapped in underlying sediments. The investigation is based on a multidisciplinary approach using direct multi-level sampling measurements and Earth resistivity tomography . Resistivity imaging was applied to evaluate the feasibility of identifying the size and spatial continuity of soil gas accumulations in anthropogenic and naturally occurring deposits. As a result, biogas accumulations are described within both anthropogenic deposits and pristine organic sediments. This result is important to identify the correct approaches to identify and manage risks associated with soil gas emissions on brownfield and pristine sites. The organic-rich sediments in Quaternary fluvial environments of São Paulo Basin in particular the Tietê River, biogas reservoirs can be generated and trapped beneath geogenic and anthropogenic layers, potentially requiring the management of brownfield developments across this region.