Modelling disease spread and control in networks: implications for plant sciences

Networks are ubiquitous in natural, technological and social systems. They are of increasing relevance for improved understanding and control of infectious diseases of plants, animals and humans, given the interconnectedness of today's world. Recent modelling work on disease development in complex networks shows: the relative rapidity of pathogen spread in scale-free compared with random networks, unless there is high local clustering; the theoretical absence of an epidemic threshold in scale-free networks of infinite size, which implies that diseases with low infection rates can spread in them, but the emergence of a threshold when realistic features are added to networks (e.g. finite size, household structure or deactivation of links); and the influence on epidemic dynamics of asymmetrical interactions. Models suggest that control of pathogens spreading in scale-free networks should focus on highly connected individuals rather than on mass random immunization. A growing number of empirical applications of network theory in human medicine and animal disease ecology confirm the potential of the approach, and suggest that network thinking could also benefit plant epidemiology and forest pathology, particularly in human-modified pathosystems linked by commercial transport of plant and disease propagules. Potential consequences for the study and management of plant and tree diseases are discussed.

Evolutionary dynamics of Staphylococcus aureus during progression from carriage to disease

Whole-genome sequencing offers new insights into the evolution of bacterial pathogens and the etiology of bacterial disease. Staph- ylococcus aureus is a major cause of bacteria-associated mortality and invasive disease and is carried asymptomatically by 27% of adults. Eighty percent of bacteremias match the carried strain. How- ever, the role of evolutionary change in the pathogen during the progression from carriage to disease is incompletely understood. Here we use high-throughput genome sequencing to discover the genetic changes that accompany the transition from nasal carriage to fatal bloodstream infection in an individual colonized with meth- icillin-sensitive S. aureus. We found a single, cohesive population exhibiting a repertoire of 30 single-nucleotide polymorphisms and four insertion/deletion variants. Mutations accumulated at a steady rate over a 13-mo period, except for a cluster of mutations preceding the transition to disease. Although bloodstream bacteria differed by just eight mutations from the original nasally carried bacteria, half of those mutations caused truncation of proteins, including a prema- ture stop codon in an AraC-family transcriptional regulator that has been implicated in pathogenicity. Comparison with evolution in two asymptomatic carriers supported the conclusion that clusters of pro- tein-truncating mutations are highly unusual. Our results demon- strate that bacterial diversity in vivo is limited but nonetheless detectable by whole-genome sequencing, enabling the study of evolutionary dynamics within the host. Regulatory or structural changes that occur during carriage may be functionally important for pathogenesis; therefore identifying those changes is a crucial step in understanding the biological causes of invasive bacterial disease.

The population dynamics of disease on short and long time-scales

Observational evidence is scarce concerning the distribution of plant pathogen population sizes or densities as a function of time-scale or spatial scale. For wild pathosystems we can only get indirect evidence from evolutionary patterns and the consequences of biological invasions.We have little or no evidence bearing on extermination of hosts by pathogens, or successful escape of a host from a pathogen. Evidence over the last couple of centuries from crops suggest that the abundance of particular pathogens in the spectrum affecting a given host can vary hugely on decadal timescales. However, this may be an artefact of domestication and intensive cultivation. Host-pathogen dynamics can be formulated mathematically fairly easily–for example as SIR-type differential equation or difference equation models, and this has been the (successful) focus of recent work in crops. “Long-term” is then discussed in terms of the time taken to relax from a perturbation to the asymptotic state. However, both host and pathogen dynamics are driven by environmental factors as well as their mutual interactions, and both host and pathogen co-evolve, and evolve in response to external factors. We have virtually no information about the importance and natural role of higher trophic levels (hyperpathogens) and competitors, but they could also induce long-scale fluctuations in the abundance of pathogens on particular hosts. In wild pathosystems the host distribution cannot be modelled as either a uniform density or even a uniform distribution of fields (which could then be treated as individuals). Patterns of short term density-dependence and the detail of host distribution are therefore critical to long-term dynamics. Host density distributions are not usually scale-free, but are rarely uniform or clearly structured on a single scale. In a (multiply structured) metapopulation with coevolution and external disturbances it could well be the case that the time required to attain equilibrium (if it exists) based on conditions stable over a specified time-scale is longer than that time-scale. Alternatively, local equilibria may be reached fairly rapidly following perturbations but the meta-population equilibrium be attained very slowly. In either case, meta-stability on various time-scales is a more relevant than equilibrium concepts in explaining observed patterns.

Effect of mannanoligosaccharides and/or enzymes on antibody titers against infectious bursal and Newcastle disease viruses

O efeito da inclusão de mananoligossacarídeo (MOS) e/ou enzimas em dietas de frangos sobre os títulos de anticorpos contra os vírus das doenças de Gumboro (VDG) e de Newcastle (VDN). Setecentos e cinqüenta aves foram distribuídas em um delineamento experimental inteiramente ao acaso, em arranjo fatorial 2 x 2 + 1, com dois níveis de MOS (0 e 0,1% até 21 dias e 0,05% de 22 até 42 dias de idade), dois níveis de enzimas (0 e 0,05%) e uma dieta-controle-positivo contendo antibióticos, totalizando cinco tratamentos com cinco repetições. Para análise dos anticorpos, amostras de sangue foram colhidas semanalmente por punção da veia jugular em duas aves de cada repetição. A primeira e a última colheita foram realizadas aos sete e 42 dias de idade, respectivamente. A inclusão de MOS resultou em aumento dos títulos contra VDG na quarta (P<0,03) e quinta (P<0,02) semanas, e contra VDN na terceira (P<0,01), quarta (P<0,03) e quinta (P<0,03) semanas de idade. O MOS foi efetivo em estimular a resposta imune humoral contra VDG e VDN vacinais.

A double antibody sandwich ELISA for rapid diagnosis of virus infection and to measure the humoral response against infectious bursal disease on clinical material

A double antibody sandwich ELISA (DAS-ELISA) was developed and employed for simultaneous direct detection of infectious bursal disease virus (IBDV) from bursal samples and to measure the humoral response, using the same basic immunoreagents, the purified and non-purified antigen, capture antibody and chicken hyperimmune sera were prepared, and standardized for this purpose, the DAS-ELISA was applied to both 80 bursal suspensions and 224 corresponding serum samples from vaccinated and non-vaccinated commercial hocks, Bursae samples were collected at 2 weeks of age, and submitted to histological examination, virus isolation in specific pathogen-free chickens embryos, and the DAS-ELISA technique, Serum titres obtained in indirect ELISA and serum neutralization test were compared with those in DAS-ELISA, the agreement was 80% between DAS-ELISA, and the conventional techniques, with high sensitivity (87%) and specificity (90%).

Replication of classical infectious bursal disease virus in the chicken embryo related cell line

Infectious bursal disease (IBD) is an acute, highly contagious viral disease. The diagnosis of IBD depends on time-consuming and costly procedures, like virus isolation on chick embryos and histopathological examination, A double antibody sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (DAS-ELISA), immunoperoxidase and reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) were applied in this study to detect classical IBD virus (IBDV) after three blind passages of the Lukert strain on chicken embryo related (CER) cell monolayer after different periods of infection: 6, 12, 24 and 48 h, Cytophatic effects were most evident 12 h post-infection (p.i.) but were observed at 6 h p.i. The maximum discrimination between IBDV-infected and uninfected cell suspensions obtained by the use of DAS-ELISA for virus detection corresponded to 0.597+/-0.02 and 0.010+/-0.01 after 12h p.i., respectively. The RT-PCR was performed using the set of primers A3.1 and A3.2 to amplify the VP2 region of the IBDV genome, This molecular technique demonstrated that from 6 h p.i., it was possible to detect the viral RNA. The results show that the CER cell line can be used for classical IBDV propagation, confirmed by the DAS-ELISA, immunoperoxidase and RT-PCR assay.

Direct detection of infectious bursal disease virus from clinical samples by in situ reverse transcriptase-linked polymerase chain reaction

The presence of the very virulent (vv) Brazilian strain of infectious bursal disease virus (IBDV) was determined in the bursa of Fabricius, thymus and liver of 2-week-old broilers from a flock with a higher than expected mortality. For this purpose, a direct in situ reverse transcriptase (RT)-linked polymerase chain reaction (PCR) method was developed using specific primers for vvIBDV. Unlabelled forward and reverse biotinylated oligonucleotides were used for RT-PCR in a one-step method and the respective products were revealed by a direct enzymatic reaction. The results were compared with those obtained by standard RT-PCR using general primers for IBDV and virus isolation. The virus isolation, RT-PCR and in situ RT-PCR revealed positive results on the bursa of Fabricius in 86%, 80% and 100%, respectively. The in situ RT-PCR detected vvIBDV in all tested thymus and liver samples, whereas the standard RT-PCR detected virus in 80% and 90% of the samples, respectively. After three consecutive passages on chicken embryonated eggs, IBDV was isolated from 64% of the thymus samples and 30% of the liver samples. In the present study, no classical or antigenic variants of IBDV were detected. The developed in situ RT-PCR assay was able to detect the very virulent strain of IBDV with a higher sensitivity than the conventional RT-PCR and virus isolation.

Experimental infectious bursal disease in the ostrich (Struthio camelus)

Clinically severe disease was produced in ostriches aged 4 weeks by oral infection with avirulent strain of infectious bursal disease virus (vIBDV), namely strain Faragher 52/70. Four days after infection the birds were humanely killed and tissue samples, including thymus, bursa of Fabricius (BF), brain and kidney were collected for examination. Histopathologically, the thymus and BF showed severe lymphoid depletion and necrosis, while immunolabelling with a polyclonal antibody demonstrated abundant viral antigen. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of a serum/protein-free medium for the growth of mammalian cell lines and high level production of classical, variant and very virulent strain of infectious bursal disease virus (IBDV)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Life cycle complexity, environmental change and the emerging status of salmonid proliferative kidney disease

P>1. Proliferative kidney disease (PKD) is a disease of salmonid fish caused by the endoparasitic myxozoan, Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae, which uses freshwater bryozoans as primary hosts. Clinical PKD is characterised by a temperature-dependent proliferative and inflammatory response to parasite stages in the kidney.;2. Evidence that PKD is an emerging disease includes outbreaks in new regions, declines in Swiss brown trout populations and the adoption of expensive practices by fish farms to reduce heavy losses. Disease-related mortality in wild fish populations is almost certainly underestimated because of e.g. oversight, scavenging by wild animals, misdiagnosis and fish stocking.;3. PKD prevalences are spatially and temporally variable, range from 0 to 90-100% and are typically highest in juvenile fish.;4. Laboratory and field studies demonstrate that (i) increasing temperatures enhance disease prevalence, severity and distribution and PKD-related mortality; (ii) eutrophication may promote outbreaks. Both bryozoans and T. bryosalmonae stages in bryozoans undergo temperature- and nutrient-driven proliferation.;5. Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae is likely to achieve persistent infection of highly clonal bryozoan hosts through vertical transmission, low virulence and host condition-dependent cycling between covert and overt infections. Exploitation of fish hosts entails massive proliferation and spore production by stages that escape the immune response. Many aspects of the parasite's life cycle remain obscure. If infectious stages are produced in all hosts then the complex life cycle includes multiple transmission routes.;6. Patterns of disease outbreaks suggest that background, subclinical infections exist under normal environmental conditions. When conditions change, outbreaks may then occur in regions where infection was hitherto unsuspected.;7. Environmental change is likely to cause PKD outbreaks in more northerly regions as warmer temperatures promote disease development, enhance bryozoan biomass and increase spore production, but may also reduce the geographical range of this unique multihost-parasite system. Coevolutionary dynamics resulting from host-parasite interactions that maximise fitness in previous environments may pose problems for sustainability, particularly in view of extensive declines in salmonid populations and degradation of many freshwater habitats.

Ebola virus disease outbreak in Nigeria: Transmission dynamics and rapid control.

International air travel has already spread Ebola virus disease (EVD) to major cities as part of the unprecedented epidemic that started in Guinea in December 2013. An infected airline passenger arrived in Nigeria on July 20, 2014 and caused an outbreak in Lagos and then Port Harcourt. After a total of 20 reported cases, including 8 deaths, Nigeria was declared EVD free on October 20, 2014. We quantified the impact of early control measures in preventing further spread of EVD in Nigeria and calculated the risk that a single undetected case will cause a new outbreak. We fitted an EVD transmission model to data from the outbreak in Nigeria and estimated the reproduction number of the index case at 9.0 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.2-15.6). We also found that the net reproduction number fell below unity 15 days (95% CI: 11-21 days) after the arrival of the index case. Hence, our study illustrates the time window for successful containment of EVD outbreaks caused by infected air travelers.

Studies in vaccinal immunity towards disease of the bovine placenta due to bacillus abortus (infectious abortion) /

"November 15, 1923"--Cover.