Assessment of surface winds over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean in CMIP5 models: historical bias, forcing response, and state dependence

An assessment of the fifth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models’ simulation of the near-surface westerly wind jet position and strength over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific sectors of the Southern Ocean is presented. Compared with reanalysis climatologies there is an equatorward bias of 3.7° (inter-model standard deviation of ± 2.2°) in the ensemble mean position of the zonal mean jet. The ensemble mean strength is biased slightly too weak, with the largest biases over the Pacific sector (-1.6±1.1 m/s, 27 -22%). An analysis of atmosphere-only (AMIP) experiments indicates that 41% of the zonal mean position bias comes from coupling of the ocean/ice models to the atmosphere. The response to future emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) is characterized by two phases: (i) the period of most rapid ozone recovery (2000-2049) during which there is insignificant change in summer; and (ii) the period 2050-2098 during which RCP4.5 simulations show no significant change but RCP8.5 simulations show poleward shifts (0.30, 0.19 and 0.28°/decade over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific sectors respectively), and increases in strength (0.06, 0.08 and 0.15 m/s/decade respectively). The models with larger equatorward position biases generally show larger poleward shifts (i.e. state dependence). This inter-model relationship is strongest over the Pacific sector (r=-0.89) and insignificant over the Atlantic sector (r=-0.50). However, an assessment of jet structure shows that over the Atlantic sector jet shift is significantly correlated with jet width whereas over the Pacific sector the distance between the sub-polar and sub-tropical westerly jets appears to be more important.

Indian summer monsoon variations could have affected the early Holocene woodland expansion in the Near East

Postglacial expansion of deciduous oak woodlands of the Zagros—Anti-Taurus Mountains, a major biome of the Near East, was delayed until the middle Holocene at ~6300 cal. yr BP. The current hypotheses explain this delay as a consequence of a regional aridity during the early Holocene, slow migration rates of forest trees, and/or a long history of land use and agro-pastoralism in this region. In the present paper, support is given to a hypothesis that suggests different precipitation seasonalities during the early Holocene compared with the late Holocene. The oak species of the Zagros—Anti-Taurus Mts, particularly Quercus brantii Lindl., are strongly dependent on spring precipitation for regeneration and are sensitive to a long dry season. Detailed analysis of modern atmospheric circulation patterns in SW Asia during the late spring suggests that the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) intensification can modify the amount of late spring and/or early summer rainfall in western/northwestern Iran and eastern Anatolia, which could in turn have controlled the development of the Zagros—Anti-Taurus deciduous oak woodlands. During the early Holocene, the northwestward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) could have displaced the subtropical anticyclonic belt or associated high pressure ridges to the northwest. The latter could, in turn, have prevented the southeastward penetration of low pressure systems originating from the North Atlantic and Black Sea regions. Such atmospheric configuration could have reduced or eliminated the spring precipitation creating a typical Mediterranean continental climate characterized by winter-dominated precipitation. This scenario highlights the complexity of biome response to climate system interactions in transitional climatic and biogeographical regions.

The role of northern Arabian Sea surface temperature biases in CMIP5 model simulations and future projections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Many climate models have problems simulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its variability, resulting in considerable uncertainty in future projections. Problems may relate to many factors, such as local effects of the formulation of physical parametrisation schemes, while common model biases that develop elsewhere within the climate system may also be important. Here we examine the extent and impact of cold sea surface temperature (SST) biases developing in the northern Arabian Sea in the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, where such SST biases are shown to be common. Such biases have previously been shown to reduce monsoon rainfall in the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) by weakening moisture fluxes incident upon India. The Arabian Sea SST biases in CMIP5 models consistently develop in winter, via strengthening of the winter monsoon circulation, and persist into spring and summer. A clear relationship exists between Arabian Sea cold SST bias and weak monsoon rainfall in CMIP5 models, similar to effects in the MetUM. Part of this effect may also relate to other factors, such as forcing of the early monsoon by spring-time excessive equatorial precipitation. Atmosphere-only future time-slice experiments show that Arabian Sea cold SST biases have potential to weaken future monsoon rainfall increases by limiting moisture flux acceleration through non-linearity of the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Analysis of CMIP5 model future scenario simulations suggests that, while such effects are likely small compared to other sources of uncertainty, models with large Arabian Sea cold SST biases suppress the range of potential outcomes for changes to future early monsoon rainfall.

An investigation of QBO signals in the east Asian and Indian monsoon in GCM experiments

Observations have shown that the monsoon is a highly variable phenomenon of the tropical troposphere, which exhibits significant variance in the temporal range of two to three years. The reason for this specific interannual variability has not yet been identified unequivocally. Observational analyses have also shown that EI Niño indices or western Pacific SSTs exhibit some power in the two to three year period range and therefore it was suggested that an ocean-atmosphere interaction could excite and support such a cycle. Similar mechanisms include land-surface-atmosphere interaction as a possible driving mechanism. A rather different explanation could be provided by a forcing mechanism based on the quasi-biennial oscillation of the zonal wind in the lower equatorial stratosphere (QBO). The QBO is a phenomenon driven by equatorial waves with periods of some days which are excited in the troposphere. Provided that the monsoon circulation reacts to the modulation of tropopause conditions as forced by the QBO, this could explain monsoon variability in the quasi-biennial window. The possibility of a QBO-driven monsoon variability is investigated in this study in a number of general circulation model experiments where the QBO is assimilated to externally controlled phase states. These experiments show that the boreal summer monsoon is significantly influenced by the QBO. A QBO westerly phase implies less precipitation in the western Pacific, but more in India, in agreement with observations. The austral summer monsoon is exposed to similar but weaker mechanisms and the precipitation does not change significantly.

Regional performance and characteristics of Indian manufacturing industry

This paper investigates the regional characteristics of Indian manufacturing industry. Its aim is to assess whether geography plays any major role in determining the performance or characteristics of Indian manufacturing firms, and in order to do this, it presents the results of cross-section regressions estimated on the basis of a balanced sample of 1607 firms across the 30 Indian states. The results suggest that firm performance and characteristics are related to many of the expected industrial organization variables. However, there is also evidence of significant region–state influences on both the performance and characteristics of Indian manufacturing industry. As such, the results demonstrate that analyses which focus solely on standard non-spatial industrial organization variables will fail to explain much of the cross-sectional variation in firm performance and characteristics. In particular, while there are no systematic simple centre–periphery variations in the Indian regional economic system, there is evidence to suggest that industrial spatial concentration, regional specialization, and regional market size play a key role in determining the performance and characteristics of Indian manufacturing industry.

Synoptic scale disturbances of the Indian Summer Monsoon as simulated in a high resolution climate model

Hamburg atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM3 at T106 resolution (1.125' lat.Aon.) has considerable skill in reproducing the observed seasonal reversal of mean sea level pressure, the location of the summer heat low as well as the position of the monsoon trough over the Indian subcontinent. The present-day climate and its seasonal cycle are realistically simulated by the model over this region. The model simulates the structure, intensity, frequency, movement and lifetime of monsoon depressions remarkably well. The number of monsoon depressions/storms simulated by the model in a year ranged from 5 to 12 with an average frequency of 8.4 yr-', not significantly different from the observed climatology. The model also simulates the interannual variability in the formation of depressions over the north Bay of Bengal during the summer monsoon season. In the warmer atmosphere under doubled CO2 conditions, the number of monsoon depressions/cyclonic storms forming in Indian seas in a year ranged from 5 to 11 with an average frequency of 7.6 yr-', not significantly different from those inferred in the control run of the model. However, under doubled CO2 conditions, fewer depressions formed in the month of June. Neither the lowest central pressure nor the maximum wind speed changes appreciably in monsoon depressions identified under simulated enhanced greenhouse conditions. The analysis suggests there will be no significant changes in the number and intensity of monsoon depressions in a warmer atmosphere.

The relationship between community-based organisations and the effective management of coastal and marine resources in the Western Indian Ocean region

This study examines the relationship between community based organisations and marine and coastal resource management in the Western Indian Ocean Region.

The role of baroclinic waves in the initiation of tropical cyclones across the southern Indian Ocean

Cases where tropical storms are initiated simultaneously along one latitude are investigated. It is argued that such structure arises as part of a baroclinic wave. A case from February 2008 is examined using European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses; the birth of three tropical cyclones in the low-level cyclonic regions to the east of upper-level troughs suggests that the wave was instrumental for initiation. Archived satellite imagery and storm warnings reveal that baroclinic waves over the southern Indian Ocean accompany tropical cyclogenesis twice a season on average, mainly in late summer, when breaking Rossby waves on the subtropical westerly jet are closest to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Influences of increasing temperature on Indian wheat: quantifying limits to predictability

As climate changes, temperatures will play an increasing role in determining crop yield. Both climate model error and lack of constrained physiological thresholds limit the predictability of yield. We used a perturbed-parameter climate model ensemble with two methods of bias-correction as input to a regional-scale wheat simulation model over India to examine future yields. This model configuration accounted for uncertainty in climate, planting date, optimization, temperature-induced changes in development rate and reproduction. It also accounts for lethal temperatures, which have been somewhat neglected to date. Using uncertainty decomposition, we found that fractional uncertainty due to temperature-driven processes in the crop model was on average larger than climate model uncertainty (0.56 versus 0.44), and that the crop model uncertainty is dominated by crop development. Simulations with the raw compared to the bias-corrected climate data did not agree on the impact on future wheat yield, nor its geographical distribution. However the method of bias-correction was not an important source of uncertainty. We conclude that bias-correction of climate model data and improved constraints on especially crop development are critical for robust impact predictions.

Catch-up strategies in the Indian auto components industry: domestic firms’ responses to market liberalization

Market liberalization in emerging-market economies and the entry of multinational firms spur significant changes to the industry/institutional environment faced by domestic firms. Prior studies have described how such changes tend to be disruptive to the relatively backward domestic firms, and negatively affect their performance and survival prospects. In this paper, we study how domestic supplier firms may adapt and continue to perform, as market liberalization progresses, through catch-up strategies aimed at integrating with the industry's global value chain. Drawing on internalization theory and the literatures on upgrading and catch-up processes, learning and relational networks, we hypothesize that, for continued performance, domestic supplier firms need to adapt their strategies from catching up initially through technology licensing/collaborations and joint ventures with multinational enterprises (MNEs) to also developing strong customer relationships with downstream firms (especially MNEs). Further, we propose that successful catch-up through these two strategies lays the foundation for a strategy of knowledge creation during the integration of domestic industry with the global value chain. Our analysis of data from the auto components industry in India during the period 1992–2002, that is, the decade since liberalization began in 1991, offers support for our hypotheses.

General circulation model estimates of aerosol transport and radiative forcing during the Indian Ocean Experiment

Aerosol sources, transport, and sinks are simulated, and aerosol direct radiative effects are assessed over the Indian Ocean for the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) Intensive Field Phase during January to March 1999 using the Laboratoire de Me´te´orologie Dynamique (LMDZT) general circulation model. The model reproduces the latitudinal gradient in aerosol mass concentration and optical depth (AOD). The model-predicted aerosol concentrations and AODs agree reasonably well with measurements but are systematically underestimated during high-pollution episodes, especially in the month of March. The largest aerosol loads are found over southwestern China, the Bay of Bengal, and the Indian subcontinent. Aerosol emissions from the Indian subcontinent are transported into the Indian Ocean through either the west coast or the east coast of India. Over the INDOEX region, carbonaceous aerosols are the largest contributor to the estimated AOD, followed by sulfate, dust, sea salt, and fly ash. During the northeast winter monsoon, natural and anthropogenic aerosols reduce the solar flux reaching the surface by 25 W m�2, leading to 10–15% less insolation at the surface. A doubling of black carbon (BC) emissions from Asia results in an aerosol single-scattering albedo that is much smaller than in situ measurements, reflecting the fact that BC emissions are not underestimated in proportion to other (mostly scattering) aerosol types. South Asia is the dominant contributor to sulfate aerosols over the INDOEX region and accounts for 60–70% of the AOD by sulfate. It is also an important but not the dominant contributor to carbonaceous aerosols over the INDOEX region with a contribution of less than 40% to the AOD by this aerosol species. The presence of elevated plumes brings significant quantities of aerosols to the Indian Ocean that are generated over Africa and Southeast and east Asia.

Association of the PPARGC1A gene polymorphism with diabetic nephropathy in an Asian Indian population (CURES-41)

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to evaluate the association of polymorphisms of the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma (PPARG) gene and peroxisome proliferators-activated receptor gamma co-activator 1 alpha (PPARGC1A) gene with diabetic nephropathy (DN) in Asian Indians. METHODS: Six common polymorphisms, 3 of the PPARG gene [-1279G/A, Pro12Ala, and His478His (C/T)] and 3 of the PPARGC1A gene (Thr394Thr, Gly482Ser, and +A2962G) were studied in 571 normal glucose-tolerant (NGT) subjects, 255 type 2 diabetic (T2D) subjects without nephropathy, and 141 DN subjects. Genotypes were determined by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) and direct sequencing. Logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the covariables associated with DN. RESULTS: Among the 6 polymorphisms examined, only the Gly482Ser of the PPARGC1A gene was significantly associated with DN. The genotype frequency of Ser/Ser genotype of the PPARGC1A gene was 8.8% (50/571) in NGT subjects, 7.8% (20/255) in T2D subjects, and 29.8% (42/141) in DN subjects. The odds ratios (ORs) for DN for the susceptible Gly/Ser and Ser/Ser genotype after adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, and duration of diabetes were 2.14 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.23-3.72; P = 0.007] and 8.01 (95% CI, 3.89-16.47; P < 0.001), respectively. The unadjusted OR for DN for the XA genotype of the Thr394Thr polymorphism was 1.87 (95% CI, 1.20-2.92; P = 0.006) compared to T2D subjects. However, the significance was lost (P = 0.061) when adjusted for age, sex, BMI, and duration of diabetes. The +A2962G of PPARGC1A and the 3 polymorphisms of PPARG were not associated with DN. CONCLUSION: The Gly482Ser polymorphism of the PPARGC1A gene is associated with DN in Asian Indians.

Evidence for an association with type 2 diabetes mellitus at the PPARG locus in a South Indian population

Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-gamma2 (PPARG2) is a nuclear hormone receptor of ligand-dependent transcription factor involved in adipogenesis and a molecular target of the insulin sensitizers thiazolidinediones. We addressed the question of whether the 3 variants (-1279G/A, Pro12Ala, and His478His) in the PPARG2 gene are associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus and its related traits in a South Indian population. The study subjects (1000 type 2 diabetes mellitus and 1000 normal-glucose-tolerant subjects) were chosen randomly from the Chennai Urban Rural Epidemiology Study, an ongoing population-based study in southern India. The variants were screened by single-stranded conformational variant, direct sequencing, and restriction fragment length polymorphism. Linkage disequilibrium was estimated from the estimates of haplotypic frequencies. The -1279G/A, Pro12Ala, and His478His variants of the PPARG2 gene were not associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus. However, the 2-loci analyses showed that, in the presence of Pro/Pro genotype of the Pro12Ala variant, the -1279G/A promoter variant showed increased susceptibility to type 2 diabetes mellitus (odds ratio, 2.092; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-3.59; P = .008), whereas in the presence of 12Ala allele, the -1279G/A showed a protective effect against type 2 diabetes mellitus (odds ratio, 0.270; 95% confidence interval, 0.15-0.49; P < .0001). The 3-loci haplotype analysis showed that the A-Ala-T (-1279G/A-Pro12Ala-His478His) haplotype was associated with a reduced risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (P < .0001). Although our data indicate that the PPARG2 gene variants, independently, have no association with type 2 diabetes mellitus, the 2-loci genotype analysis involving -1279G/A and Pro12Ala variants and the 3-loci haplotype analysis have shown a significant association with type 2 diabetes mellitus in this South Indian population.