Modelling climate impact on floods with ensemble climate projections

The evidence provided by modelled assessments of future climate impact on flooding is fundamental to water resources and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from global and regional climate models (GCM/RCMs). However, challenges in representing precipitation events at catchment-scale resolution mean that decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs. Here the impacts on projected high flows of differing ensemble approaches and application of Model Output Statistics to RCM precipitation are evaluated while assessing climate change impact on flood hazard in the Upper Severn catchment in the UK. Various ensemble projections are used together with the HBV hydrological model with direct forcing and also compared to a response surface technique. We consider an ensemble of single-model RCM projections from the current UK Climate Projections (UKCP09); multi-model ensemble RCM projections from the European Union's FP6 ‘ENSEMBLES’ project; and a joint probability distribution of precipitation and temperature from a GCM-based perturbed physics ensemble. The ensemble distribution of results show that flood hazard in the Upper Severn is likely to increase compared to present conditions, but the study highlights the differences between the results from different ensemble methods and the strong assumptions made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future river discharge. The results underline the challenges in using the current generation of RCMs for local climate impact studies on flooding. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Problems with accessibility to health services by persons with disabilities in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Purpose. To describe the occurrence of self-reported problems of accessibility to health services used by persons with disabilities in terms of social and health services variables. Methods. We performed a cross-sectional household survey designed to assess problems with accessibility to health services faced by persons with disabilities. We interviewed 333 persons in Sao Paulo city, in 2007. Variables related to the presence of accessibility problems, disabilities, gender, age, family head income, ethnicity, use of health services and others were analysed using frequencies, percentages, chi(2)-test, ANOVA and Poisson regression models. Results. 15.92% of the interviewed persons reported problems with accessibility to health services. Persons having multiple (prevalence ratios; PR = 2.91) or mobility disability (PR = 6.46) had more problems with accessibility than persons with hearing disability. Persons younger than 78 years old had more problems with accessibility; those who needed help to go to the health service (PR = 3.01) also. Conclusions. Persons with multiple or mobility disability, younger than 78 years, and those who needed help of others to go to the health service were more likely to have problems with accessibility to health services. This information could be one of the first steps to the management and/or planning of appropriate health services for persons with disabilities.

Effects of isolated cycle ergometer training on patients with moderate-to-severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Background: Pulmonary rehabilitation (PR) programs are beneficial to patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and lower-extremity training is considered a fundamental component of PR. Nevertheless, the isolated effects of each PR component are not well established. Objective: We aimed to evaluate the effects of a cycle ergometry exercise protocol as the only intervention in a group of COPD patients, and to compare these results with a control group. Methods: 25 moderate-to-severe COPD patients were evaluated regarding pulmonary function, respiratory muscle strength, exercise capacity, quality of life and body composition. Patients were allocated to one of two groups: (a) the trained group (TG; n=13; 6 men) was submitted to a protocol of 24 exercise sessions on a cycle ergometer, with training intensity initially set at a heart rate (HR) close to 80% of maximal HR achieved in a maximal test, and load increase based on dyspnea scores, and (b) the control group (CG; n=12; 6 men) with no intervention during the protocol period. Results: TG showed within-group significant improvements in endurance cycling time, 6-min walking distance test, maximal inspiratory pressure and in the domain 'dyspnea' related to quality of life. Despite the within-group changes, no between-group significant differences were observed. Conclusion: In COPD patients, the results of isolated low-to-moderate intensity cycle ergometer training are not comparable to effects of multimodality and high-intensity training programs. Copyright (C) 2004 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Effect of three exercise programs on patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

We compared the effect of three different exercise programs on patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease including strength training at 50_80% of one-repetition maximum (1-RM) (ST; N = 11), low-intensity general training (LGT; N = 13), or combined training groups (CT; N = 11). Body composition, muscle strength, treadmill endurance test (TEnd), 6-min walk test (6MWT), Saint George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), and baseline dyspnea (BDI) were assessed prior to and after the training programs (12 weeks). The training modalities showed similar improvements (P > 0.05) in SGRQ-total (ST = 13 ± 14%; CT = 12 ± 14%; LGT = 11 ± 10%), BDI (ST = 1.8 ± 4; CT = 1.8 ± 3; LGT = 1 ± 2), 6MWT (ST = 43 ± 51 m; CT = 48 ± 50 m; LGT = 31 ± 75 m), and TEnd (ST = 11 ± 20 min; CT = 11 ± 11 min; LGT = 7 ± 5 min). In the ST and CT groups, an additional improvement in 1-RM values was shown (P < 0.05) compared to the LGT group (ST = 10 ± 6 to 57 ± 36 kg; CT = 6 ± 2 to 38 ± 16 kg; LGT = 1 ± 2 to 16 ± 12 kg). The addition of strength training to our current training program increased muscle strength; however, it produced no additional improvement in walking endurance, dyspnea or quality of life. A simple combined training program provides benefits without increasing the duration of the training sessions.

Tertiary structural changes of the alpha-hemolysin from Staphylococcus aureus on association with liposome membranes

The interaction of alpha-hemolysin (also called alpha-toxin) from Staphylococcus aureus with mixed egg-yolk phosphatidylcholine/cholesterol liposomes has been investigated using the intrinsic tryptophan fluorescence emission (ITFE) signal. The ITFE intensity of alpha-hemolysin, which was obtained using a novel purification protocol, showed a triphasic increase on incubation with liposomes at low protein/lipid ratios. The first, rapid phase results in an increase in ITFE of 10%, which reflects rapid conformation changes in the alpha-hemolysin on association with the liposome membrane, the second phase of the ITFE increase is associated with a red shift from 334 to 339 nm in the maximum emission wavelength, suggesting the transition to a partially unfolded intermediate in the oligomerization process. The third phase of the ITFE intensity change demonstrates a temporal correlation with the appearance of SDS-stable oligomers. The results demonstrate the feasibility of identification of intermediate protein conformations in complex membrane-associated processes by manipulation of the liposomal membrane composition. (C) 1998 Academic Press.

The role of interleukin-10 in the differential expression of interleukin-12p70 and its beta 2 receptor on patients with active or treated paracoccidioidomycosis and healthy infected subjects

Paracoccidioidomycosis patients present an antigen-specific Th1 immunosuppression. To better understand this phenomenon, we evaluated the interleukin (IL)-12 pathway by measuring IL-12p70 production and CD3(+) T cell expression of the IL-12 receptor (IL-12R)beta1/beta2 chains, induced with the main fungus antigen (gp43) and a control antigen, from Candida albicans (CMA). We showed that gp43-induced IL-12p70 production and IL-12Rbeta2 expression were significantly decreased in acute and chronic patients as compared to healthy subjects cured from PCM or healthy infected subjects from endemic areas. Interestingly, the healthy infected Subjects had higher gp43-induced IL12p70 production and beta2 expression than the cured subjects. The addition of a neutralizing anti-IL-10 antibody to the cultures increased IL12p70 levels and beta2 expression in acute and chronic patients to levels observed in Cured subjects. Conversely, addition of the cytokine IL-10 strongly inhibited both parameters in the latter group. In conclusion, we have shown that paracoccidioidomycosis-related Th1 immunosuppression is associated with down-modulation of the IL-12 pathway, that IL-10 may participate in this process, and that patients cured from paracoccidioidomycosis may not fully recover their immune responsiveness. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of mismatching abutments on implants with wider platforms - an experimental study in dogs

Aim: To evaluate the effect of mismatching abutments on implants with a wider platform on the peri-implant hard tissue remodeling and the soft tissue dimensions.Material and methods: Mandibular premolars and first molars of six Labrador dogs were extracted bilaterally. After 3 months of healing, one tapered implant was installed on each side of the mandibular molar region with the implant shoulder placed at the level of the buccal alveolar bony crest. on the right side of the mandible, an abutment of reduced diameter in relation to the platform of the implant was used, creating a mismatch of 0.85 mm (test), whereas an abutment of the same diameter of the implant platform was affixed in the left side of the mandible (control). The flaps were sutured to allow a non-submerged healing. After 4 months, the animals were sacrificed and ground sections were obtained for histometric assessment.Results: All implants were completely osseo-integrated. Bone levels were superior at the test than at the control sites. However, statistically significant differences were found only at the buccal and proximal aspects. The soft tissue vertical dimension was higher at the control compared with the test sites. However, statistically significant differences were demonstrated only at the buccal aspects.Conclusions: A mismatch of 0.85 mm between the implant and the abutment yielded more coronal levels of bone-to-implant contact and a reduced height of the peri-implant soft tissue (biologic width), especially at the buccal aspect, if the implant shoulder was placed flush with the level of the buccal alveolar bony crest.

Notes on Eucryptotermes with a new species from central Amazonia (Isoptera: Kalotermitidae)

Eucryptotermes breviceps, new species, is described from central Amazonia. Both imagoes and soldiers of this new species have only two apical spurs on the foretibia, a condition previously unknown for Kalotermitidae. The soldier of E. breviceps has a peculiar and extremely phragmotic head. The geographical distribution of E. wheeleri is expanded with new records, and measurements of soldiers and imagoes of this species are presented for the first time. E. wheeleri is a native of the Atlantic forest of southeastern Brazil, from Santa Catarina to Rio de Janeiro, but it has been recorded in urban areas and may be an occasional minor pest.

Towards a new international financial architecture: report of the Task Force of the Executive Committee on Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations, 21 January 1999 = Hacia una nueva arquitectura financiera internacional: informe del Grupo de Trabajo del Comité Ejecutivo de Asuntos Económicos y Sociales de las Naciones Unidas, 21 de enero de 1999

Publicación bilingüe