Data Revisions in the Estimation of DSGE Models

Revisions of US macroeconomic data are not white-noise. They are persistent, correlated with real-time data, and with high variability (around 80% of volatility observed in US real-time data). Their business cycle effects are examined in an estimated DSGE model extended with both real-time and final data. After implementing a Bayesian estimation approach, the role of both habit formation and price indexation fall significantly in the extended model. The results show how revision shocks of both output and inflation are expansionary because they occur when real-time published data are too low and the Fed reacts by cutting interest rates. Consumption revisions, by contrast, are countercyclical as consumption habits mirror the observed reduction in real-time consumption. In turn, revisions of the three variables explain 9.3% of changes of output in its long-run variance decomposition.

Least Squares Estimation Principle and its Geometrical Interpretation

pdf contains 14 pages)

Estimation of Correlation Distance of Soil Properties by Geostatistics

Random field theory has been used to model the spatial average soil properties, whereas the most widely used, geostatistics, on which also based a common basis (covariance function) has been successfully used to model and estimate natural resource since 1960s. Therefore, geostistics should in principle be an efficient way to model soil spatial variability Based on this, the paper presents an alternative approach to estimate the scale of fluctuation or correlation distance of a soil stratum by geostatistics. The procedure includes four steps calculating experimental variogram from measured data, selecting a suited theoretical variogram model, fitting the theoretical one to the experimental variogram, taking the parameters within the theoretical model obtained from optimization into a simple and finite correlation distance 6 relationship to the range a. The paper also gives eight typical expressions between a and b. Finally, a practical example was presented for showing the methodology.

Estimation of year class abundance and mortality of yellowfin tuna in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

ENGLISH: Age composition of catch, and growth rate, of yellowfin tuna have been estimated by Hennemuth (1961a) and Davidoff (1963). The relative abundance and instantaneous total mortality rate of yellowfin tuna during 1954-1959 have been estimated by Hennenmuth (1961b). It is now possible to extend this work, because more data are available; these include data for 1951-1954, which were previously not available, and data for 1960-1962, which were collected subsequent to Hennemuth's (1961b) publication. In that publication, Hennemuth estimated the total instantaneous mortality rate (Z) during the entire time period a year class is present in the fishery following full recruitment. However, this method may lead to biased estimates of abundance, and hence mortality rates, because of both seasonal migrations into or out of specific fishing areas and possible seasonal differences in availability or vulnerability of the fish to the fishing gear. Schaefer, Chatwin and Broadhead (1961) and Joseph etl al. (1964) have indicated that seasonal migrations of yellowfin occur. A method of estimating mortality rates which is not biased by seasonal movements would be of value in computations of population dynamics. The method of analysis outlined and used in the present paper may obviate this bias by comparing the abundance of an individual yellowfin year class, following its period of maximum abundance, in an individual area during a specific quarter of the year with its abundance in the same area one year later. The method was suggested by Gulland (1955) and used by Chapman, Holt and Allen (1963) in assessing Antarctic whale stocks. This method, and the results of its use with data for yellowfin caught in the eastern tropical Pacific from 1951-1962 are described in this paper. SPANISH: La composición de edad de la captura, y la tasa de crecimiento del atún aleta amarilla, han sido estimadas por Hennemuth (1961a) y Davidoff (1963). Hennemuth (1961b), estimó la abundancia relativa y la tasa de mortalidad total instantánea del atún aleta amarilla durante 1954-1959. Se puede ampliar ahora, este trabajo, porque se dispone de más datos; éstos incluyen datos de 1951 1954, de los cuales no se disponía antes, y datos de 1960-1962 que fueron recolectados después de la publicación de Hennemuth (1961b). En esa obra, Hennemuth estimó la tasa de mortalidad total instantánea (Z) durante todo el período de tiempo en el cual una clase anual está presente en la pesquería, consecutiva al reclutamiento total. Sin embargo, este método puede conducir a estimaciones con bias (inclinación viciada) de abundancia, y de aquí las tasas de mortalidad, debidas tanto a migraciones estacionales dentro o fuera de las áreas determinadas de pesca, como a posibles diferencias estacionales en la disponibilidad y vulnerabilidad de los peces al equipo de pesca. Schaefer, Chatwin y Broadhead (1961) y Joseph et al. (1964) han indicado que ocurren migraciones estacionales de atún aleta amarilla. Un método para estimar las tasas de mortalidad el cual no tuviera bias debido a los movimientos estacionales, sería de valor en los cómputos de la dinámica de las poblaciones. El método de análisis delineado y usado en el presente estudio puede evitar este bias al comparar la abundancia de una clase anual individual de atún aleta amarilla, subsecuente a su período de abundancia máxima en un área individual, durante un trimestre específico del año, con su abundancia en la misma área un año más tarde. Este método fue sugerido por Gulland (1955) y empleado por Chapman, Holt y Allen (1963) en la declaración de los stocks de la ballena antártica. Este método y los resultados de su uso, en combinación con los datos del atún aleta amarilla capturado en el Pacífico oriental tropical desde 1951-1962, son descritos en este estudio.

Identification and estimation of size from the beaks of 18 species of cephalopods from the Pacific Ocean

A method of identifying the beaks and estimating body weight and mantle length of 18 species of cephalopods from the Pacific Ocean is presented. Twenty specimens were selected from each of the following cephalopod species: Symplectoteuthis oualaniensis, Dosidicus gigas, Ommastrephes bartramii, S. luminosa, Todarodes pacificus, Nototodarus hawaiiensis, Ornithoteuthis volalilis, Hyaloteuthis pelagica, Onychoteuthis banksii, Pterygioteuthis giardi, Abraliopsis affinis, A. felis, Liocranchia reinhardti, Leachia danae, Histioteuthis heteropsis, H. dofleini, Gonalus onyx, and Loligo opalescens. Dimensions measured on the upper and lower beak are converted to ratios and compared individually among the species using an analysis of variance procedure with Tukey's omega and Duncan's multiple range tests. Significant differences (P =0.05) observed among the species' beak ratio means and structural characteristics are used to construct artificial keys for the upper and lower beaks of the 18 species. Upper and lower beak dimensions are used as independent variables in a linear regression model with mantle length and body weight (log transformed). (PDF file contains 56 pages.)