Sources and transport of dissolved and particulate organic carbon in the Mississippi River estuary and adjacent coastal waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC), stable carbon isotopic (delta(13)C) compositions of DOC and particulate organic carbon (POC), and elemental C/N ratios of POC were measured for samples collected from the lower Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers and adjacent coastal waters in the northern Gulf of Mexico during the low flow season in June 2000 and high flow season in April 2001. These isotopic and C/N results combined with DOC measurements were used to assess the sources and transport of terrestrial organic matter from the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers to the coastal region in the northern Gulf of Mexico. delta(13)C values of both POC (-23.8parts per thousand to -26.8parts per thousand) and DOC (-25.0parts per thousand to -29.0parts per thousand) carried by the two rivers were more depleted than the values measured for the samples collected in the offshore waters. Strong seasonal variations in delta(13)C distributions were observed for both POC and DOC in the surface waters of the region. Fresh water discharge and horizontal mixing played important roles in the distribution and transport of terrestrial POC and DOC offshore. Our results indicate that both POC and DOC exhibited non-conservative behavior during the mixing especially in the mid-salinity range. Based on a simple two end-member mixing model, the comparison of the measured DOC-delta(13)C with the calculated conservative isotopic mixing curve indicated that there was a significant in situ production of marine-derived DOC in the mid- to high-salinity waters consistent with our in situ chlorophyll-a measurements. Our DOC-delta(13)C data suggest that a removal of terrestrial DOC mainly occurred in the high-salinity (>25) waters during the mixing. Our study indicates that the mid- to high- (10-30) salinity range was the most dynamic zone for organic carbon transport and cycling in the Mississippi River estuary. Variability in isotopic and elemental compositions along with variability in DOC and POC concentrations suggest that autochthonous production, bacterial utilization, and photo-oxidation could all play important roles in regulating and removing terrestrial DOC in the northern Gulf of Mexico and further study of these individual processes is warranted. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Potential P limitation leads to excess N in the pearl river estuarine coastal plume

There is excess nitrate (NO3) in the Pearl River coastal plume in the southern waters of Hong Kong in summer. We hypothesize that phosphorus (P) limitation controls the utilization of excess NO3 due to the high N:P ratio in the Pearl River. To test this hypothesis, we conducted two 1-day cruises on July 13 and 19, 2000 to examine the response of the phytoplankton to P additions with respect to changes in biomass, uptake of nutrients and nutrient uptake ratios using a batch incubation of natural water samples collected from the Pearl River estuary and adjacent coastal waters. At a station (E1, salinity =5) in the Pearl River estuary, the N/P ratio at the surface was 46:1, (64 muM DIN: 1.3 muM PO4) and decreased to 24:1 (12 muM DIN: 0.5 muM PO4) downstream at a station (Stn 26, salinity =26) in the coastal plume south of Hong Kong. Without a P addition, NO3 in the water samples collected at E1 could not be depleted during a 9 day incubation (similar to20 muM NO3 remaining). With a P addition, NO3 disappeared completely on day 6 with the depletion of the added PO4 (2-3 muM). This was also true for a station, E4 (salinity= 15) further downstream, but within the estuary. At Stn 26, in the coastal plume south of Hong Kong, NO3 (similar to11.5 muM) was eventually depleted without the addition of PO4, but it took 8 days instead of 5 days for Stn E4. The uptake ratio of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) to PO4, without a P addition was 51:1, 43:1 and 46:1 for Stns E1, E4 and 26, respectively. With a P addition, the DIN/PO4 uptake ratio decreased to 20:1, 14:1 and 12:1, respectively, for the 3 stations. These results clearly indicate potential P limitation to utilization of NO3 in the Pearl River estuary, resulting in excess NO3 in waters of the coastal plume downstream of the estuary, some of which would eventually be transported offshore. High uptake ratios of N:P without a P addition (43N:1P) suggest that phytoplankton have a nitrogen uptake capacity in excess of the Redfield ratio of 16N: 1P by 2.5-3 times. The value of 2.5-3 times was likely a maximum that should have contained a contribution of P released from desorption of P from sediments or from regeneration by zooplankton grazing and bacterial activity during the incubation of natural water samples. Without a P addition, however, phytoplankton biomass did not increase. This means that P turnover rates or regeneration may allow phytoplankton to take up additional N in excess of the Redfield ratio and store it, but without increasing the algal biomass. Therefore, high ambient N:P ratios in excess of the Redfield ratio do indicate potential P limitation to phytoplankton biomass in this estuarine coastal ecosystem. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Studies on the regional feature of organic carbon in sediments off the Huanghe River Estuary waters

Organic carbon (OC) in definitely small area sediments(according to marine dimension)off the Huanghe River Estuary is investigated in order to evaluate the feature of regional difference of physical and chemical properties in marginal sea sediments. The distributions of OC in sediments with natural grain size and the relationship with the pH, Eh,Es and Fe3+/Fe2+ are discussed. In addition,OC decomposition rates in surfacial/subsurfacial sediments are estimated. OC concentrations range from 0.26% to 1.8%(wt)in the study area. Significant differences in OC content and in horizontal distribution as well as various trends in surfacial/subsurfacial sediments exhibit the feature of regional difference remarkably in marginal sea sediments. The complicated distribution of OC in surface sediments is due to the influence of bacterial activity and abundance, bioturbation of benthos and physical disturbance. The OC decomposition rate constant in surfacial/subsurfacial sediments ranges from 0.0097 to 0.076 a(-1) and the relatively high values may be mainly related to bacteria that are mainly responsible for OC mineralization;meio-and macrofauna affect OC degradation both directly, through feeding on it, and indirectly through bioturbation and at the same time coarse sediments are also disadvantageous to OC preservation. In almost all the middle and bottom sediments the contents of OC decrease with the increase of deposition depth, which indicates that mineralization of OC in the middle and bottom sediments has occurred via processes like SO42- reduction and Fe-oxide reduction.

A nitrogen budget of the Changjiang river catchment

Based on 1997-1998 field investigations in the Changjiang river mouth, rain sampling from the river's upper reaches to the mouth, historical data, and relevant literature, the various sources of Total Nitrogen (TN) and Dissolved Inorganic Nitrogen (DIN) in the Changjiang river catchment and N transport in the Changjiang river mouth were estimated. The export fluxes of various form of were mainly controlled by the river runoff, and the export fluxes of NO3-N, DIN and TN in 1998 (an especially heavy flood year) were 1438 103 tonnes (t) yr(-1) or 795.1 kg km(-2) yr(-1) 1746 10(3) t yr(-1) or 965.4 kg km(-2) yr(-1) and 2849 10(3) t yr(-1) or 1575.3 kg km(-2) yr(-1), respectively. The TN and DIN in the Changjiang river came mainly from precipitation, agricultural nonpoint sources, N lost from fertilizer and soil, and point sources of industrial waste and residential sewage discharge, which were about 56.2% and 62.3%, 15.4% and 18.5%, 17.1% and 14.4%, respectively, of the N outflow at the Changjiang river mouth; maximum transport being in the middle reaches.

Seasonal and spatial distribution of matrix-bound phosphine and its relationship with the environment in the Changjiang River Estuary, China

Sediment is commonly considered as a source of phosphine, which is a highly toxic and reactive atmospheric trace gas. This study aims to investigate the seasonal and spatial distribution of matrix-bound phosphine (MBP) and its relationship with the environment in the Changjiang River Estuary. A total of 43 surface sediments were collected in four seasons of 2006, and concentrations of MBP and relative environmental factors were analyzed. MBP ranged from 1.93 to 94.86 ng kg(-1) dry weight (dw) with an average concentration of 17.14 ng kg(-1) dw. The concentrations of MBP in the tipper estuary were, higher than those in the lower estuary, which could be attributed to greater pollutant inputs in the upper estuary. The concentrations of MBP also varied with season, with November > August > May > February. Significant correlations existed between MBP and total phosphorus (TP), organic phosphorus (OP), inorganic phosphorus (W), organic carbon (OC), total nitrogen (TN), the grain size, and redox potential (Eh), suggesting that these sedimentary environmental characteristics played an important role in controlling the MBP levels in the sediments. Notably, there were positive linear relationships between the concentrations of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), TP, and chlorophyll a (Chl a) in bottom water and MBP in sediments. These relationships might be very complicated and need further exploration. This work is the first comprehensive study of the seasonal and spatial distribution of MBP in sediments and its relationships with environmental factors in a typical estuary, and will lead to deeper understanding of the phosphorus (P) biogeochemical cycle. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Behavior of uranium in the Yellow River plume (Yellow river estuary)

The Yellow River (Huanghe) is the second largest river in China and is known for its high turbidity. It also has remarkably high levels of dissolved uranium (U) concentrations (up to 38 nmol l(-1)). To examine the mixing behavior of dissolved U between river water and seawater, surface water samples were collected along a salinity gradient from the Yellow River plume during September 2004 and were measured for dissolved U concentration, U-234:U-238 activity ratio, phosphate (PO43-), and suspended particulate matter. Laboratory experiments were also conducted to simulate the mixing process in the Yellow River plume using unfiltered Yellow River water and filtered seawater. The results showed a nonconservative behavior for dissolved U at salinities < 20 with an addition of U to the plume waters estimated at about 1.4 X 10(5) mol yr(-1). A similarity between variations in dissolved U and PO43- with salinity was also found. There are two major mechanisms, desorption from suspended sediments and diffusion from interstitial waters of bottom sediments, that may cause the elevated concentrations of dissolved U and PO43- in mid-salinity waters. Mixing experiments indicate that desorption seems more responsible for the elevated dissolved U concentrations, whereas diffusion influences more the enrichment of PO43-.

Size-fractionated phytoplankton biomass in autumn of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River Estuary and its adjacent waters after the Three Gorges Dam construction

A cruise was undertaken from 3rd to 8th November 2004 in Changjiang (Yangtze) River Estuary and its adjacent waters to investigate the spatial biomass distribution and size composition of phytoplankton. Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration ranged 0.42-1.17 mu g L-1 and 0.41-10.43 mu g L-1 inside and outside the river mouth, with the mean value 0.73 mu g L-1 and 1.86 mu g L-1, respectively. Compared with the Chl-a concentration in summer of 2004, the mean value was much lower inside, and a little higher outside the river mouth. The maximal Chl-a was 10.43 mu g L-1 at station 18 (122.67 degrees E, 31.25 degrees N), and the region of high Chl-a concentration was observed in the central survey area between 122.5 degrees E and 123.0 degrees E. In the stations located east of 122.5 degrees E, Chl-a concentration was generally high in the upper layers above 5 m due to water stratification. In the survey area, the average Chl-a in sizes of > 20 mu m and < 20 mu m was 0.28 mu g L-1 and 1.40 mu g L-1, respectively. High Chl-a concentration of < 20 mu m size-fraction indicated that the nanophytoplankton and picophytoplankton contributed the most to the biomass of phytoplankton. Skeletonema costatum, Prorocentrum micans and Scrippsiella trochoidea were the dominant species in surface water. The spatial distribution of cell abundance of phytoplankton was patchy and did not agree well with that of Chl-a, as the cell abundance could not distinguish the differences in shape and size of phytoplankton cells. Nitrate and silicate behaved conservatively, but the former could probably be the limitation factor to algal biomass at offshore stations. The distribution of phosphate scattered considerably, and its relation to the phytoplankton biomass was complicated.

Responses of a coastal phytoplankton community to increased nutrient input from the Changjiang (Yangtze) River

Nutrient input from the Changjiang River (Yangtze River) has been increasing dramatically since the 1960s. At the mouth of the Changjiang River, the nitrate concentration has increased about three-fold in 40 years, from 20.5 mu mol/L in the 1960s to 59.1 mu mol/L in the 1980s and to 80.6 mu mol/L in 1990-2004. Phosphate concentration increased by a factor of 30%, from 0.59 mu mol/L in the 1980s to 0.77 mu mol/L in 1990-2004. The increasing nitrate input has arisen mostly from the mid and lower reaches of the Changjiang River, where the river meets one of the most strongly developed agriculture areas in China. Responses of the coastal phytoplankton community to the increasing nutrient inputs are also seen in the available monitoring data. First, a trend of increasing phytoplankton standing stock from 1984 to 2002 appeared in the Changjiang River estuary and adjacent coastal waters, especially in late spring. Secondly, the proportion of diatoms in the whole phytoplankton community showed a decreasing trend from about 85% in 1984 to about 60% in 2000. Finally, red tides/harmful algal blooms increased dramatically in this area in terms of both number and scale. About 30-80 red tide events were recorded each year from 2000 to 2005 in the East China Sea. The scale of some blooms has been in excess of 10,000 km(2). (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The status and characteristics of eutrophication in the Yangtze River (Changjiang) estuary and the adjacent East China Sea, China

Eutrophication has become increasingly serious and noxious algal blooms have been of more frequent occurrence in the Yangtze River Estuary and in the adjacent East China Sea. In 2003 and 2004, four cruises were undertaken in three zones in the estuary and in the adjacent sea to investigate nitrate (NO3-N), ammonium (NH4-N), nitrite (NO2-N), soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), dissolved reactive silica (DRSi), dissolved oxygen (DO), phytoplankton chlorophyll a (Chl a) and suspended particulate matter (SPM). The highest concentrations of DIN (NO3-N+NH4-N+NO2-N), SRP and DRSi were 131.6, 1.2 and 155.6 mu M, respectively. The maximum Chl a concentration was 19.5 mg m(-3) in spring. An analysis of historical and recent data revealed that in the last 40 years, nitrate and SRP concentrations increased from 11 to 97 mu M and from 0.4 to 0.95 mu M, respectively. From 1963 to 2004, N:P ratios also increased from 30-40 up to 150. In parallel with the N and P enrichment, a significant increase of Chl a was detected, Chl a maximum being 20 mg m(-3), nearly four times higher than in the 1980s. In 2004, the mean DO concentration in bottom waters was 4.35 mg l(-1), much lower than in the 1980s. In comparison with other estuaries, the Yangtze River Estuary was characterized by high DIN and DRSi concentrations, with low SRP concentrations. Despite the higher nutrient concentrations, Chl a concentrations were lower in the inner estuary (Zones 1 and 2) than in the adjacent sea (Zone 3). Based on nutrient availability, SPM and hydrodynamics, we assumed that in Zones 1 and 2 phytoplankton growth was suppressed by high turbidity, large tidal amplitude and short residence time. Furthermore, in Zone 3 water stratification was also an important factor that resulted in a greater phytoplankton biomass and lower DO concentrations. Due to hydrodynamics and turbidity, the open sea was unexpectedly more sensitive to nutrient enrichment and related eutrophication processes.

Inorganic carbon of sediments in the Yangtze River Estuary and Jiaozhou Bay

JGOFS results showed that the ocean is a major sink for the increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide resulting from human activity. However, the role of the coastal seas in the global carbon cycling is poorly understood. In the present work, the inorganic carbon (IC) in the Yangtze River Estuary and Jiaozhou Bay are studied as examples of offshore sediments. Sequential extraction was used to divide inorganic carbon in the sediments into five forms, NaCl form, NH3 H2O form, NaOH form, NH2OH HCl form and HCl form. Studied of their content and influencing factors were also showed that NaCl form < NH3 H2O form < NaOH form < NH2OH HCl form < HCl form, and that their influencing factors of pH, Eh, Es, water content, organic carbon, organic nitrogen, inorganic nitrogen, organic phosphorus and inorganic phosphorus on inorganic carbon can be divided into two groups, and that every factor has different influence on different form or on the same form in different environment. Different IC form may transform into each other in the early diagenetic process of sediment, but NaCl form, NH3 H2O form, NaOH form and NH2OH HCl form may convert to HCl form ultimately. So every IC form has different contribution to carbon cycling. This study showed that the contribution of various form of IC to the carbon cycle is in the order of NaOH form > NH2OH HCl form > NH3 H2O form > NaCl form > HCl form, and that the contribution of HCl form contributes little to carbon cycling, HCl form may be one of end-result of atmospheric CO2. So Yangtze River estuary sediment may absorb at least about 40.96x10(11) g atmospheric CO2 every year, which indicated that offshore sediment play an important role in absorbing atmospheric CO2.

GEO-ECOLOGICAL TRANSECT STUDIES IN NORTHEAST TIBET (QINGHAI, CHINA) REVEAL HUMAN-MADE MID-HOLOCENE ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES IN THE UPPER YELLOW RIVER CATCHMENT CHANGING FOREST TO GRASSLAND

Geo-ecological transect studies in the pastures of the upper catchment of the HuangHe (99 degrees 30'-100 degrees 00'E/35 degrees 30'-35 degrees 40'N'; 3,000-4,000 in a.s.l., Qinghai province, China) revealed evidence that pastures replace forests. Plot-based vegetation records and fenced grazing exclosure experiments enabled the identification of grazing indicator plants for the first time. The mapping of vegetation patterns of pastures with isolated juniper and Spruce forests raise questions as to the origin of the grasslands, which arc widely classified as "natural" at present. Soil investigations and charcoal fragments of Juniperus (8,153 +/- 63 uncal BP) and Picea (6,665 +/- 59 uncal BP) provide evidence of the wider presence of forests. As temperatures and rainfall records undoubtedly represent a forest climate, it is assumed that the present pastures have replaced forests. Circumstantial evidence arising from investigations into the environmental history of the Holocene effectively substantiates this theory.

边坡动力响应分析及应用研究

As a marginal subject, dynamic responses of slopes is not only an important problem of engineering geology (Geotechnical problem), but also of other subjects such as seismology, geophysics, seismic engineering and engineering seismic and so on. Owning to the gulf between different subjects, it is arduous to study dynamic responses of slopes and the study is far from ripeness. Studying on the dynamic responses of slopes is very important in theories as well as practices. Supported by hundreds of bibliographies, this paper systemically details the development process of this subject, introduces main means to analyze this subject, and then gives brief remarks to each means respectively. Engineering geology qualitative analysis is the base of slopes dynamic responses study. Because of complexity of geological conditions, engineering geology qualitative analysis is very important in slopes stability study, especially to rock slopes with complex engineering geology conditions. Based on research fruits of forerunners, this paper summarizes factors influencing slopes dynamic stability into five aspects as geology background, stratums, rock mass structure, and topography as well as hydrogeology condition. Based on rock mass structure controlling theory, engineering geology model of the slope is grouped into two typical classes, one is model with obvious controlling discontinuities, which includes horizontal bedded slope, bedding slope, anti-dip slope, slide as well as slope with base rock and weathered crust; the other is model without obvious controlling discontinuities, which includes homogeneous soil slope, joint rock mass slope. Study on slope failure mechanism under dynamic force, the paper concludes that there are two effects will appear in slope during strong earthquake, one is earthquake inertia force, the other is ultra pore pressure buildup. The two effects lead to failure of the slope. To different types of slope failure, the intensity of two effects acting on the slope is different too. To plastic flow failure, pore pressure buildup is dominant; to falling rock failure and toppling failure, earthquake inertia force is dominant in general. This paper briefly introduces the principle of Lagrangian element method. Through a lot of numerical simulations with FLAC3D, the paper comprehensively studies dynamic responses of slopes, and finds that: if the slope is low, displacement, velocity and acceleration are linear enlarging with elevation increasing in vertical direction; if the slope is high enough, displacement, velocity and acceleration are not linear with elevation any more, on the other hand, they fluctuate with certain rhythm. At the same time, the rhythm appears in the horizontal direction in the certain area near surface of the slope. The distribution form of isoline of displacement, velocity and acceleration in the section of the slope is remarkably affected by the slope angle. In the certain area near the slope surface, isoline of displacement, velocity and acceleration is parallel to the surface of the slope, in the mean time, the strike direction of the extreraum area is parallel to the surface of the slope too. Beyond this area, the isoline direction and the strike direction of the extremum area turn to horizontal with invariable distance. But the rhythm appearing or not has nothing to with the slope angle. The paper defines the high slope effect and the low slope effect of slopes dynamic responses, discusses the threshold height H^t of the dynamic high slope effect, and finds that AW is proportional to square root of the dynamic elastic moduli El P , at the same time, it is proportional to period Tof the dynamic input. Thus, the discriminant of H^t is achieved. The discriminant can tell us that to a slope, if its height is larger than one fifth of the wavelength, its response regular will be the dynamic high slope effect; on the other hand, its response regular will be the dynamic low slope effect. Based on these, the discriminant of different slopes taking on same response under the same dynamic input is put forward in this paper. At the same time, the paper studies distribution law of the rhythm extremum point of displacement, velocity and acceleration, and finds that there exists relationship of N = int among the slope height H, the number of the rhythm extremum VHlhro) point N and ffthre- Furthermore, the paper points out that if N^l, the response of the slope will be dynamic high slope effect; \fNRiver and the west side of Jinpingdahewan, is the highest double-curvature arch dam planned in building in the world. However, deep fractures are well developed at the left abutment slope, so stability of the slope is a key engineering geological problem. The paper studies the dynamic stability of the slope. In the analysis, considering regional geology and regional seismology of the slope, combining with characteristics of the slope as well as the scale of the project, PGA(peak ground acceleration) of the site is decided (about 197.1cm/s2) by engineering seismology, and then the seismic input used in the slope dynamic analysis is determined. Comprehensive studies are carried out on the slope, especially to its deep fractures, and then the paper concludes that the deep fractures of slope are the result of the combination unloading effect of gravity and tectonic stress. At the same time, the failure model of the slope under dynamic input is attained. Based on these, the stability is comprehensively studied for section IV-IV with numerical simulation method as well as method putting forward in chapter 5. At last, the paper concludes that under dynamic input, the section will slide along fault f9, some deep fractures and fault/5 with certain permanent displacement, and this must be taken into consideration in the engineering.

溶蚀岩体渗透水力学特性研究

Seepage control in karstic rock masses is one of the most important problems in domestic hydroelectric engineering and mining engineering as well as traffic engineering. At present permeability assessment and leakage analysis of multi-layer karstic rock masses are mainly qualitative, while seldom quantitative. Quantitative analyses of the permeability coefficient and seepage amount are conducted in this report, which will provide a theoretical basis for the study of seepage law and seepage control treatment of karstic rocks. Based on the field measurements in the horizontal grouting galleries of seepage control curtains on the left bank of the Shuibuya Hydropower Project on the Qingjiang river, a hydraulic model is established in this report, and the computation results will provide a scientific basis for optimization of grouting curtain engineering. Following issues are addressed in the report. (1) Based on the in-situ measurements of fissures and karstic cavities in grouting galleries, the characteristics of karstic rock mass is analyzed, and a stochastic structural model of karstic rock masses is set up, which will provide the basis for calculation of the permeability and leakage amount of karstic rock mass. (2) According to the distribution of the measured joints in the grouting galleries and the stochastic results obtained from the stochastic structural model of karstic rock mass between grouting galleries, a formula for computation of permeability tensor of fracturing system is set up, and a computation program is made with Visual Basic language. The computation results will be helpful for zoning of fissured rock masses and calculation of seepage amount as well as optimization of seepage control curtains. (3) Fractal theory is used to describe quantitatively the roughness of conduit walls of karstic systems and the sinuosity of karstic conduits. It is proposed that the roughness coefficient of kastic caves can be expressed by both fractal dimension Ds and Dr that represent respectively the extension sinuosity of karstic caves and the roughness of the conduit walls. The existing formula for calculating the seepage amount of karstic conduits is revised and programmed. The seepage amount of rock masses in the measured grouting galleries is estimated under the condition that no seepage control measures are taken before reservoir impoundment, and the results will be helpful for design and construction optimization of seepage curtains of the Shuibuya hydropower project. This report is one part of the subject "Karstic hydrogeology and the structural model and seepage hydraulics of karstic rock masses", a sub-program of "Study on seepage hydraulics of multi-layer karstic rock masses and its application in seepage control curtain engineering", which is financially supported by the Hubei Provincial key science and technology programme.

三峡库区滑坡的时空分布、成因及其预报模式

Landslides are widely distributed along the main stream banks of the Three Gorges Reservoir area. Especially with the acceleration of the human economic activities in the recent 30 years, the occurrence of landslide hazards in the local area trends to be more serious. Because of the special geological, topographic and climatic conditions of the Three Gorges areas, many Paleo-landslides are found along the gentle slope terrain of the population relocation sites. Under the natural condition, the Paleo-landslides usually keep stable. The Paleo-landslides might revive while they are influenced under the strong rainfall, water storage and migration engineering disturbance. Therefore, the prediction and prevention of landslide hazards have become the important problem involving with the safety of migration engineering of the Three Gorges Reservoir area.The past research on the landslides of the Three Gorges area is mainly concentrated on the stability analysis of individual landslide, and importance was little attached to the knowledge on the geological environment background of the formation of regional landslides. So, the relationship between distribution and evolution of landslides and globe dynamic processes was very scarce in the past research. With further study, it becomes difficult to explain the reasons for the magnitude and frequency of major geological hazards in terms of single endogenic or exogenic processes. It is possible to resolve the causes of major landslides in the Three Gorges area through the systematic research of regional tectonics and river evolution history.In present paper, based on the view of coupling of earth's endogenic and exogenic processes, the author researches the temporal and spacial distribution and formation evolution of major landslides(Volume^lOOX 104m3) in the Three Gorges Reservoir area through integration of first-hand sources statistics, .geological evolution history, isotope dating and numerical simulation method etc. And considering the main formation factors of landslides (topography, geology and rainfall condition), the author discusses the occurrence probability and prediction model of rainfall induced landslides.The distribution and magnitude of Paleo-landslides in the Three Gorges area is mainly controlled by lithology, geological structure, bank slope shape and geostress field etc. The major Paleo-landslides are concentrated on the periods 2.7-15.0 X 104aB.R, which conrresponds to the warm and wettest Paleoclimate stages. In the same time, the Three Gorges area experiences with the quickest crust uplift phase since 15.0X 104aB.P. It is indicated that the dynamic factor of polyphase major Paleo-landslides is the coupling processes of neotectonic movement and Quaternary climate changes. Based on the numerical simulation results of the formation evolution of Baota landslide, the quick crust uplift makes the deep river incision and the geostress relief causes the rock body of banks flexible. Under the strong rainfall condition, the pore-water pressure resulted from rain penetration and high flood level can have the shear strength of weak structural plane decrease to a great degree. Therefore, the bank slope is easy to slide at the slope bottom where shear stress concentrates. Finally, it forms the composite draught-traction type landslide of dip stratified rocks.The susceptibility idea for the rainfall induced landslide is put forward in this paper and the degree of susceptibility is graded in terms of the topography and geological conditions of landslides. Base on the integration with geological environment factors and rainfall condition, the author gives a new probabilistic prediction model for rainfall induced landslides. As an example from Chongqing City of the Three Gorges area, selecting the 5 factors of topography, lithology combination, slope shape, rock structure and hydrogeology and 21 kinds of status as prediction variables, the susceptibility zonation is carried out by information methods. The prediction criterion of landslides is established by two factors: the maximum 24 hour rainfall and the antecedent effective precipitation of 15 days. The new prediction model is possible to actualize the real-time regional landslide prediction and improve accuracy of landslide forecast.