Introduction [to Contact force models for multibody dynamics]

"Series: Solid mechanics and its applications, vol. 226"

Can genetic algorithms explain experimental anomalies? An application to common property resources

It is common to find in experimental data persistent oscillations in the aggregate outcomes and high levels of heterogeneity in individual behavior. Furthermore, it is not unusual to find significant deviations from aggregate Nash equilibrium predictions. In this paper, we employ an evolutionary model with boundedly rational agents to explain these findings. We use data from common property resource experiments (Casari and Plott, 2003). Instead of positing individual-specific utility functions, we model decision makers as selfish and identical. Agent interaction is simulated using an individual learning genetic algorithm, where agents have constraints in their working memory, a limited ability to maximize, and experiment with new strategies. We show that the model replicates most of the patterns that can be found in common property resource experiments.

Intra-Group Competition and Inter-Group Conflict: An Application to Northern Ireland

This paper reviews four economic theories of leadership selection in conflictual settings. The first of these by Cukierman and Tomassi (1998) labeled the ‘information rationale’, argues that hawks may actually be necessary to initiate peace agreements. The second labeled the ‘bargaining rationale’ borrowing from Hamlin and Jennings (2007) agrees with the conventional wisdom that doves are more likely to secure peace, but post-conflict there are good reasons for hawks to be rationally selected. The third found in Jennings and Roelfsema (2008) is labeled the social psychological rationale. This captures the idea of a competition over which group can form the strongest identity, so can apply to group choices which do not impinge upon bargaining power. As in the bargaining rationale, dove selection can be predicted during conflict, but hawk selection post-conflict. Finally, the expressive rationale is discussed which predicts that regardless of the underlying structure of the game (informational, bargaining, psychological) the large group nature of decision-making by making individual decision makers non-decisive in determining the outcome of elections may cause them to make choices based primarily on emotions which may be invariant with the mode of group interaction, be it conflictual or peaceful. Finally, the paper analyses the extent to which the theories can throw light on Northern Ireland electoral history over the last 25 years.

Off-the-Record Target Zones: Theory with an Application to Hong Kongs Currency Board

This paper provides a modelling framework for evaluating the exchange rate dynamics of a target zone regime with undisclosed bands. We generalize the literature to allow for asymmetric one-sided regimes. Market participants' beliefs concerning an undisclosed band change as they learn more about central bank intervention policy. We apply the model to Hong Kong's one-sided currency board mechanism. In autumn 2003, the Hong Kong dollar appreciated from close to 7.80 per US dollar to 7.70, as investors feared that the currency board would be abandoned. In the wake of this appreciation, the monetary authorities finally revamped the regime as a symmetric two-sided system with a narrow exchange rate band.

Impact of an intervention to control risk associated with patient transfer.

QUESTION UNDER STUDY: Hospitals transferring patients retain responsibility until admission to the new health care facility. We define safe transfer conditions, based on appropriate risk assessment, and evaluate the impact of this strategy as implemented at our institution. METHODS: An algorithm defining transfer categories according to destination, equipment monitoring, and medication was developed and tested prospectively over 6 months. Conformity with algorithm criteria was assessed for every transfer and transfer category. After introduction of a transfer coordination centre with transfer nurses, the algorithm was implemented and the same survey was carried out over 1 year. RESULTS: Over the whole study period, the number of transfers increased by 40%, chiefly by ambulance from the emergency department to other hospitals and private clinics. Transfers to rehabilitation centres and nursing homes were reassigned to conventional vehicles. The percentage of patients requiring equipment during transfer, such as an intravenous line, decreased from 34% to 15%, while oxygen or i.v. drug requirement remained stable. The percentage of transfers considered below theoretical safety decreased from 6% to 4%, while 20% of transfers were considered safer than necessary. A substantial number of planned transfers could be "downgraded" by mutual agreement to a lower degree of supervision, and the system was stable on a short-term basis. CONCLUSION: A coordinated transfer system based on an algorithm determining transfer categories, developed on the basis of simple but valid medical and nursing criteria, reduced unnecessary ambulance transfers and treatment during transfer, and increased adequate supervision.

Missed appointments in an adolescent outpatient clinic : descriptive analyses of consultations over eight years ; et, Missed appointments in an outpatient clinic for adolescents, an approache to predict the risk of missing

Rapport de synthèse: Les rendez-vous manqués représentent un problème important, tant du point de vue de la santé des patients que du point de vue économique. Pourtant peu d'études se sont penchées sur le sujet, particulièrement dans une population d'adolescents. Les buts de cette étude étaient de caractériser les adolescents qui sont à risque de manquer ou d'annuler leurs rendez-vous dans une clinique ambulatoire de santé pour adolescents, de comparer les taux des rendez-vous manqués et annulés entre les différents intervenants et d'estimer l'efficacité d'une politique de taxation des rendez-vous manqués non excusés. Finalement, un modèle multi-niveau markovien a été utilisé afin de prédire le risque de manquer un rendez-vous. Ce modèle tient compte du passé de l'adolescent en matière de rendez-vous manqués et d'autres covariables et permet de grouper les individus ayant un comportement semblable. On peut ensuite prédire pour chaque groupe le risque de manquer ou annuler et les covariables influençant significativement ce risque. Entre 1999 et 2006, 32816 rendez-vous fixés pour 3577 patients âgés de 12 à 20 ans ont été analysés. Le taux de rendez-vous manqués était de 11.8%, alors que 10.9% avaient été annulés. Soixante pour cent des patients n'ont pas manqué un seul de leur rendezvous et 14% en ont manqué plus de 25%. Nous avons pu mettre en évidence plusieurs variables associées de manière statistiquement significative avec les taux de rendez-vous manqués et d'annulations (genre, âge, heure, jour de la semaine, intervenant thérapeutique). Le comportement des filles peut être catégorisé en 2 groupes. Le premier groupe inclut les diagnostiques psychiatriques et de trouble du comportement alimentaire, le risque de manquer dans ce groupe étant faible et associé au fait d'avoir précédemment manqué un rendez-vous et au délai du rendez-vous. Les autres diagnostiques chez les filles sont associés à un second groupe qui montre un risque plus élevé de manquer un rendez-vous et qui est associé à l'intervenant, au fait d'avoir précédemment manqué ou annulé le dernier rendez-vous et au délai du rendez-vous. Les garçons ont tous globalement un comportement similaire concernant les rendez-vous manqués. Le diagnostic au sein de ce groupe influence le risque de manquer, tout comme le fait d'avoir précédemment manqué ou annulé un rendez-vous, le délai du rendez-vous et l'âge du patient. L'introduction de la politique de taxation des rendez-vous non excusés n'a pas montré de différence significative des tàux de rendez-vous manqués, cependant cette mesure a permis une augmentation du taux d'annulations. En conclusion, les taux de présence des adolescents à leurs rendez-vous sont dépendants de facteurs divers. Et, même si les adolescents sont une population à risque concernant les rendez-vous manqués, la majorité d'entre eux ne manquent aucun de leurs rendez-vous, ceci étant vrai pour les deux sexes. Etudier les rendez-vous manqués et les adolescents qui sont à risque de rater leur rendez-vous est un pas nécessaire vers le contrôle de ce phénomène. Par ailleurs, les moyens de contrôle concernant les rendez-vous manqués devraient cibler les patients ayant déjà manqué un rendez-vous. La taxation des rendez-vous manqués permet d'augmenter les rendez-vous annulés, ce qui a l'avantage de permettre de fixer un nouveau rendez-vous et, de ce fait, d'améliorer la continuité des soins.

Fuel Poverty and Cold Home-related Health Problems

Evidence Review 7 - Tackling fuel poverty and cold home-related health problems Briefing 7 - Fuel poverty and cold home-related health problems This pair of documents, commissioned by Public Health England, and written by the UCL Institute of Health Equity, address the health impacts of fuel poverty and cold homes. These documents provide an overview of fuel poverty, describing the evidence linking fuel poverty, cold homes, and poor health outcomes. They examine the scale of the problem across England and trends over time. Evidence shows that living in cold homes is associated with poor health outcomes and an increased risk of morbidity and mortality for all age groups. The documents also provide a brief overview of national policy and sets out the role of local authorities and potential interventions at local level. Fuel poverty is not just about poverty, but also about the quality of England’s housing stock and energy efficiency. The review discusses some of the interventions that have been implemented at the local level to help people on low incomes during cold weather and to address cold home-related health problems. The full evidence review and a shorter summary briefing are available to download above. This document is part of a series. An overview document which provides an introduction to this and other documents in the series, and links to the other topic areas, is available on the ‘Local Action on health inequalities’ project page. A video of Michael Marmot introducing the work is also available on our videos page.

Tackling Health Inequalities through Action on the Social Determinants of Health: Lessons from Experience

Briefing 10 - Lessons from experience This document, commissioned by Public Health England, and written by the UCL Institute of Health Equity, sets out 12 points to consider when taking action locally on the social determinants of health. It is intended as a source of information on approaches to consider when devising local programmes and strategies to reduce health inequalities. It complements the other briefings and evidence reviews in this series, which provide more detail on action on specific social determinant areas, such as employment and early years interventions, including information on impacts and cost effectiveness where available. The 12 steps are divided across three parts. The first part sets out four strategies that help prioritise action on health equity. The next steps are principles of effective action on the social determinants of the health, presented in the second part. Finally, the steps in part three outline ways of ensuring that measures to increase health equity are sustainable and have impact over the long term. The briefing is available to download above. This document is part of a series. An overview document which provides an introduction to this and other documents in the series, and links to the other topic areas, is available on the ‘Local Action on health inequalities’ project page. A video of Michael Marmot introducing the work is also available on our videos page.

Understanding the Economics of Investments in the Social Determinants of Health

Briefing 9 - Understanding the economics of investments in the social determinants of health This document, commissioned by Public Health England, and written by the UCL Institute of Health Equity, examines how to use measures of economic investment to improve and increase local investment in the social determinants of health. The paper provides information to support decision-making on actions to address the social determinants of health and the development of business cases for investment. It supplements the evidence reviews in this series, which include information on the economic impacts of actions on health inequalities, and should help the reader to be an intelligent customer and commissioner of economic analyses and to understand their limitations. The paper covers: - The rationale for understanding, measuring and taking into account the economic impact of decisions and interventions that impact on the social determinants of health.- The benefits and limitations of various ‘economic measures of impact’ – commonly used terms which can be confusing, sometimes leading to misinterpretation of which measure of economic impact is appropriate for what purpose.- What is currently known about the economic impact of intervening in the social determinants of health.- Good practice and further resources which will support better decisions. The briefing is available to download above. This document is part of a series. An overview document which provides an introduction to this and other documents in the series, and links to the other topic areas, is available on the ‘Local Action on health inequalities’ project page. A video of Michael Marmot introducing the work is also available on our videos page.

Health Inequalities and the Living Wage

Evidence Review 6 - Health inequalities and the living wage Briefing 6 - Health inequalities and the living wage This pair of documents, commissioned by Public Health England, and written by the UCL Institute of Health Equity, address the role of a minimum income in improving health. These papers provide a summary of evidence on the health impacts of living on a low income. They assess the evidence around how the living wage addresses low incomes, health and health inequalities. The living wage is an hourly minimum wage, optional for employers, calculated according to the basic cost of living. Local authorities and other organisations that have implemented the living wage for their staff are presented as case study interventions to show how it is possible, the challenges faced and how they were overcome and any reported income, health and business benefits. The full evidence review and a shorter summary briefing are available to download above. This document is part of a series. An overview document which provides an introduction to this and other documents in the series, and links to the other topic areas, is available on the ‘Local Action on health inequalities’ project page. A video of Michael Marmot introducing the work is also available on our videos page.

Increasing Employment Opportunities and Improving Workplace Health

Evidence Review 5 - Increasing employment opportunities and improving workplace health Briefing 5a - Workplace interventions to improve health and wellbeing Briefing 5b - Working with local employers to promote good quality work Briefing 5c - Increasing employment opportunities and retention for people with a long-term health condition or disability Briefing 5d - Increasing employment opportunities and retention for older people This set of documents, commissioned by Public Health England, and written by the UCL Institute of Health Equity, address the role of employment opportunities and good quality work in improving health. These papers provide a summary of evidence on the effects of unemployment and poor working conditions on health and the unequal distribution of these effects. They then outlines the potential actions that can be taken in local areas around four specific topics: - Workplace interventions to improve health and well-being- Working with local employers to encourage, incentivise and enforce good quality work- Interventions to increase employment opportunities and retention for people with a long-term health condition or disability- Interventions to increase employment opportunities and retention for older people The full evidence review and four shorter summary briefings are available to download above. This document is part of a series. An overview document which provides an introduction to this and other documents in the series, and links to the other topic areas, is available on the ‘Local Action on health inequalities’ project page. A video of Michael Marmot introducing the work is also available on our videos page.

Adult Learning Services

Evidence Review 4 - Adult learning services Briefing 4 - Adult learning services This pair of documents, commissioned by Public Health England, and written by the UCL Institute of Health Equity, address the role of participation in learning as an adult in improving health. There is evidence that involvement in adult learning has both direct and indirect links with health, for example because it increases employability. There is some evidence that those who are lower down the social gradient benefit most, in health terms, from adult learning. However, there is a gradient both in participation in adult learning and skill level, whereby the more someone would benefit from adult learning, the less likely they are to participate, and the lower their literacy and numeracy skills are likely to be. This is due to a range of barriers, including prohibitively high costs, lack of personal confidence, or lack of availability and access. These papers also show that there are a number of actions local authorities can take to increase access to adult learning, improve quality of provision and increase the extent to which it is delivered and targeted proportionate to need. The full evidence review and a shorter summary briefing are available to download above. This document is part of a series. An overview document which provides an introduction to this and other documents in the series, and links to the other topic areas, is available on the ‘Local Action on health inequalities’ project page. A video of Michael Marmot introducing the work is also available on our videos page.

Reducing the number of young people not in employment, education or training (NEET)

Evidence Review 3 - Reducing the number of young people not in employment, education or training (NEET) Briefing 3 - Reducing the number of young people not in employment, education or training (NEET) This pair of documents, commissioned by Public Health England, and written by the UCL Institute of Health Equity, examine how to help young people into employment, education or training. They describe the relationship between being NEET and health; inequalities in prevalence of being NEET; and the scale of the problem. The papers show that being NEET, particularly for prolonged periods, is associated with negative effects on health and a range of other outcomes. Furthermore, the chances of becoming NEET are not equally or randomly distributed throughout society – those who are relatively disadvantaged, from poor backgrounds, or who have had negative experiences at school are more likely to spend some time being NEET. The papers also propose actions that can be taken at a local level in order to reduce the proportion of young people who are NEET. There is good evidence on what works in order to enable and support young people to enter employment, education and training. Taking action to reduce NEET levels is both possible and necessary – both to ensure young people have opportunities, and also as an important way to improve public health and reduce inequalities. The full evidence review and a shorter summary briefing are available to download above. This document is part of a series. An overview document which provides an introduction to this and other documents in the series, and links to the other topic areas, is available on the ‘Local Action on health inequalities’ project page. A video of Michael Marmot introducing the work is also available on our videos page.

Building Children and Young People's Resilience in Schools

Evidence Review 2 - Building children and young people's resilience in schools Briefing 2 - Building children and young people's resilience in schools This pair of documents, commissioned by Public Health England, and written by the UCL Institute of Health Equity, address the role of schools in building children and young people’s resilience and capabilities. They provide a summary of evidence about the effect of resilience on health, the unequal distribution of resilience and its contribution to levels of health inequalities. The review outlines the potential actions that can be taken in schools in order to build resilience for all children and young people and reduce inequalities in resilience. Throughout, a social determinants approach to resilience is taken. Children and young people’s individual characteristics are seen as shaped by, and related to, inequities in power, money and resources, and the conditions in which they are born, grow, live, and in which they will work and age. Family and community resilience are highly significant and similarly shaped by wider social and economic factors. The full evidence review and a shorter summary briefing are available to download above. This document is part of a series. An overview document which provides an introduction to this and other documents in the series, and links to the other topic areas, is available on the ‘Local Action on health inequalities’ project page. A video of Michael Marmot introducing the work is also available on our videos page.