Tracing of patients lost to follow-up and HIV transmission: Mathematical modelling study based on two large ART programmes in Malawi

OBJECTIVES: Treatment as prevention depends on retaining HIV-infected patients in care. We investigated the effect on HIV transmission of bringing patients lost to follow up (LTFU) back into care. DESIGN: Mathematical model. METHODS: Stochastic mathematical model of cohorts of 1000 HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART), based on data from two clinics in Lilongwe, Malawi. We calculated cohort viral load (CVL; sum of individual mean viral loads each year) and used a mathematical relationship between viral load and transmission probability to estimate the number of new HIV infections. We simulated four scenarios: 'no LTFU' (all patients stay in care); 'no tracing' (patients LTFU are not traced); 'immediate tracing' (after missed clinic appointment); and, 'delayed tracing' (after six months). RESULTS: About 440 of 1000 patients were LTFU over five years. CVL (million copies/ml per 1000 patients) were 3.7 (95% prediction interval [PrI] 2.9-4.9) for no LTFU, 8.6 (95% PrI 7.3-10.0) for no tracing, 7.7 (95% PrI 6.2-9.1) for immediate, and 8.0 (95% PrI 6.7-9.5) for delayed tracing. Comparing no LTFU with no tracing the number of new infections increased from 33 (95% PrI 29-38) to 54 (95% PrI 47-60) per 1000 patients. Immediate tracing prevented 3.6 (95% PrI -3.3-12.8) and delayed tracing 2.5 (95% PrI -5.8-11.1) new infections per 1000. Immediate tracing was more efficient than delayed tracing: 116 and to 142 tracing efforts, respectively, were needed to prevent one new infection. CONCLUSION: Tracing of patients LTFU enhances the preventive effect of ART, but the number of transmissions prevented is small.

Monitoring of antiretroviral therapy and mortality in HIV programmes in Malawi, South Africa and Zambia: mathematical modelling study

OBJECTIVES Mortality in patients starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) is higher in Malawi and Zambia than in South Africa. We examined whether different monitoring of ART (viral load [VL] in South Africa and CD4 count in Malawi and Zambia) could explain this mortality difference. DESIGN Mathematical modelling study based on data from ART programmes. METHODS We used a stochastic simulation model to study the effect of VL monitoring on mortality over 5 years. In baseline scenario A all parameters were identical between strategies except for more timely and complete detection of treatment failure with VL monitoring. Additional scenarios introduced delays in switching to second-line ART (scenario B) or higher virologic failure rates (due to worse adherence) when monitoring was based on CD4 counts only (scenario C). Results are presented as relative risks (RR) with 95% prediction intervals and percent of observed mortality difference explained. RESULTS RRs comparing VL with CD4 cell count monitoring were 0.94 (0.74-1.03) in scenario A, 0.94 (0.77-1.02) with delayed switching (scenario B) and 0.80 (0.44-1.07) when assuming a 3-times higher rate of failure (scenario C). The observed mortality at 3 years was 10.9% in Malawi and Zambia and 8.6% in South Africa (absolute difference 2.3%). The percentage of the mortality difference explained by VL monitoring ranged from 4% (scenario A) to 32% (scenarios B and C combined, assuming a 3-times higher failure rate). Eleven percent was explained by non-HIV related mortality. CONCLUSIONS VL monitoring reduces mortality moderately when assuming improved adherence and decreased failure rates.

Outcomes of antiretroviral treatment programmes in rural Lesotho: health centres and hospitals compared

Introduction: Lesotho was among the first countries to adopt decentralization of care from hospitals to nurse-led health centres (HCs) to scale up the provision of antiretroviral therapy (ART). We compared outcomes between patients who started ART at HCs and hospitals in two rural catchment areas in Lesotho. Methods: The two catchment areas comprise two hospitals and 12 HCs. Patients ≥16 years starting ART at a hospital or HC between 2008 and 2011 were included. Loss to follow-up (LTFU) was defined as not returning to the facility for ≥180 days after the last visit, no follow-up (no FUP) as not returning after starting ART, and retention in care as alive and on ART at the facility. The data were analysed using logistic regression, competing risk regression and Kaplan-Meier methods. Multivariable analyses were adjusted for sex, age, CD4 cell count, World Health Organization stage, catchment area and type of ART. All analyses were stratified by gender. Results: Of 3747 patients, 2042 (54.5%) started ART at HCs. Both women and men at hospitals had more advanced clinical and immunological stages of disease than those at HCs. Over 5445 patient-years, 420 died and 475 were LTFU. Kaplan-Meier estimates for three-year retention were 68.7 and 69.7% at HCs and hospitals, respectively, among women (p=0.81) and 68.8% at HCs versus 54.7% at hospitals among men (p<0.001). These findings persisted in adjusted analyses, with similar retention at HCs and hospitals among women (odds ratio (OR): 0.89, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.73-1.09) and higher retention at HCs among men (OR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.20-1.96). The latter result was mainly driven by a lower proportion of patients LTFU at HCs (OR: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.51-0.93). Conclusions: In rural Lesotho, overall retention in care did not differ significantly between nurse-led HCs and hospitals. However, men seemed to benefit most from starting ART at HCs, as they were more likely to remain in care in these facilities compared to hospitals.

Monitoring Programmes, Multiple Stress Analysis and Decision Support for River Basin Management

The identification of plausible causes for water body status deterioration will be much easier if it can build on available, reliable, extensive and comprehensive biogeochemical monitoring data (preferably aggregated in a database). A plausible identification of such causes is a prerequisite for well-informed decisions on which mitigation or remediation measures to take. In this chapter, first a rationale for an extended monitoring programme is provided; it is then compared to the one required by the Water Framework Directive (WFD). This proposal includes a list of relevant parameters that are needed for an integrated, a priori status assessment. Secondly, a few sophisticated statistical tools are described that subsequently allow for the estiation of the magnitude of impairment as well as the likely relative importance of different stressors in a multiple stressed environment. The advantages and restrictions of these rather complicated analytical methods are discussed. Finally, the use of Decision Support Systems (DSS) is advocated with regard to the specific WFD implementation requirements.

Epidemiologic survey in Swiss group-housed breeding rabbits: extent of lesions and potential risk factors

In Switzerland, group-housing for breeding rabbit does is not explicitly required by law, but label programmes, as well as the general public and animal welfare groups, are advocating it. Although group-housing is of great benefit to the gregariously living rabbits, the establishment of a social hierarchy within the group might lead to stress and lesions. In the present epidemiological study, lesions were scored twice on 30% of the breeding does on all 28 commercial Swiss farms with group-housed breeding does. Additionally, a detailed questionnaire was filled out with all producers to determine risk factors potentially associated with lesions. Data were analysed using hierarchical proportional odds models. About 33% of the does examined had lesions, including wounds that were almost healed and small scratches. Severe lesions were counted on 9% of the animals. Differences between seasons in lesions score were identified, with the extent of lesions being higher in summer than in spring. Fewer lesions occurred on farms on which mastitis was more common. More lesions were found on farms where the does were isolated between littering and artificial insemination than on farms without isolation. According to the producers, most of the aggression occurred directly after the isolation phase when the does were regrouped again. We conclude that lesions in group-housed breeding does might be reduced by appropriate reproductive management.

Questionnaire-based study to assess the association between management practices and mastitis within tie-stall and free-stall dairy housing systems in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND Prophylactic measures are key components of dairy herd mastitis control programs, but some are only relevant in specific housing systems. To assess the association between management practices and mastitis incidence, data collected in 2011 by a survey among 979 randomly selected Swiss dairy farms, and information from the regular test day recordings from 680 of these farms was analyzed. RESULTS The median incidence of farmer-reported clinical mastitis (ICM) was 11.6 (mean 14.7) cases per 100 cows per year. The median annual proportion of milk samples with a composite somatic cell count (PSCC) above 200,000 cells/ml was 16.1 (mean 17.3) %. A multivariable negative binomial regression model was fitted for each of the mastitis indicators for farms with tie-stall and free-stall housing systems separately to study the effect of other (than housing system) management practices on the ICM and PSCC events (above 200,000 cells/ml). The results differed substantially by housing system and outcome. In tie-stall systems, clinical mastitis incidence was mainly affected by region (mountainous production zone; incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.73), the dairy herd replacement system (1.27) and farmers age (0.81). The proportion of high SCC was mainly associated with dry cow udder controls (IRR = 0.67), clean bedding material at calving (IRR = 1.72), using total merit values to select bulls (IRR = 1.57) and body condition scoring (IRR = 0.74). In free-stall systems, the IRR for clinical mastitis was mainly associated with stall climate/temperature (IRR = 1.65), comfort mats as resting surface (IRR = 0.75) and when no feed analysis was carried out (IRR = 1.18). The proportion of high SSC was only associated with hand and arm cleaning after calving (IRR = 0.81) and beef producing value to select bulls (IRR = 0.66). CONCLUSIONS There were substantial differences in identified risk factors in the four models. Some of the factors were in agreement with the reported literature while others were not. This highlights the multifactorial nature of the disease and the differences in the risks for both mastitis manifestations. Attempting to understand these multifactorial associations for mastitis within larger management groups continues to play an important role in mastitis control programs.

Influence of manure scrapers on dairy cows in cubicle housing systems

Manure scrapers are widely used in dairy cow loose-housing systems. In order to evaluate the effects of the scrapers on the cows, we assessed their impact on the animals' cardiac activity, feeding behaviour, and the behavioural reactions of cows confronted with different types of scrapers. In part I of the study, we measured cardiac activity (mean R–R interval and RMSSD, a parameter of heart-rate variability) whilst observing the behaviour of 29 focal cows on three farms during situations with and without active manure scrapers. Lower RMSSD values were observed during scraping events while cows were either lying, standing or walking in the alleyway, standing completely in the lying cubicle, or standing half in the lying cubicle (P=0.03), but only tended to differ while directly confronted with the scraper (P=0.06). This indicates that dairy cows experienced at least some mild stress during manure-scraping events. In part II, the feeding behaviour of 12 cows on each of two farms was recorded by means of a jaw-movement sensor and compared between situations with the manure-scraping event following forage provision either within or outside the main daily feeding period (i.e. within 1 or after 2 h from forage provisioning, respectively). The duration of night-time feeding (P=0.049) and the number of feeding bouts (P=0.036) were higher when a manure-scraping event took place within the main daily feeding period, indicating that the cows' feeding behaviour had been disturbed. In part III, we observed the cows' behaviour on 15 farms during eight manure scraping events per farm, where each of five farms had one of three different scraper types. We assessed the cows' immediate reactions when confronted with the scraper. In addition, we recorded the number of animals present in the alleyways before and after the manure-scraping events. The more cows that were present in the alleyways before the scraping event, the lower the proportion of cows showing direct behavioural reactions both with (P=0.017) and without (P=0.028) scraper contact, and the higher the number of cows that left the alleyways (P<0.001). Scraper type did not influence the proportion of cows showing behavioural reactions. In conclusion, our results show that dairy cows perceive the manure-scraping event negatively in some situations, that feeding behaviour may be disturbed when scrapers are active during the main feeding period, and that cows avoid the scraper during crowded situations.

Schulpraktika in der Lehrerbildung. Theoretische Grundlagen, Konzeptionen, Prozesse und Effekte = Pedagogical field experiences in teacher education. Theoretical foundations, programmes, processes, and effects

Seit mehr als zwanzig Jahren werden in der tertiären Lehramtsausbildung Schulpraktika reformiert und neuerdings in ihrem zeitlichen Umfang relativ zur Studienzeit vergrößert. Zum Gegenstand reger Forschungsaktivitäten avancierten Schulpraktika jedoch erst im letzten Jahrzehnt. Hiermit werden ein Überblick über das Forschungsfeld (Grundlagen der schulpraktischen Komponenten der Lehrerbildung; Forschungsmethodik) vorgelegt und aktuelle Forschungsergebnisse zu zentralen Aspekten der Wirksamkeit von Praktika und Effekten von Mentoring präsentiert. In englischsprachigen bzw. deutschsprachigen Beiträgen wird der Forschungsstand in Deutschland, den Niederlanden, Österreich und der Schweiz sowie den USA aufgezeigt. Der Band richtet sich an Personen, die in der Lehrerbildung tätig sind, also an Dozent/inn/en in Hochschulen und Seminaren, an Lehrerbildungsforscher/innen sowie an Fachpersonen in der Bildungsadministration und interessierte Studierende.