Comparative analysis between statistical and artificial intelligence models in business failure prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Growth and yield of corn hybrids in response to association with Azospirillum brasilense and nitrogen fertilization

There is a growing interest in optimizing the positive effects of the association between Azospirillum bacteria and corn crop in order to reduce the use of nitrogen fertilizers. This study aimed to evaluate the inoculation efficiency of an A. brasilense-based commercial product in association with different rates of nitrogen fertilization in two corn genotypes. The experiment was arranged in a 2 x 2 x 5 factorial randomized block design, with four replications. The treatments consisted of two corn hybrids (30F53 and CD386); with and without inoculation with a commercial product based on A. brasilense and five nitrogen rates (0, 40, 80, 120 and 160 kg ha-1). The variables plant height, basal stem diameter, leaf area, shoot dry matter, leaf nitrogen content, length and diameter of the cob, weight of 100 grains and grain yield were evaluated. Inoculation with A. brasilense provided increases of 11 and 12% in leaf area and shoot dry matter, respectively. There were differences in the response of the corn hybrids for most variables and the increase in nitrogen supply provided increments in the growth and yield of corn.

Comparative Analysis between Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Models in Business Failure Prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Growth and nutrient accumulation in mycorrhized papaya seedlings cultivated in a phosphorus-fertilized substrate

ABSTRACT The indiscriminate use of mineral fertilizers in papaya orchards has increased production costs, and the use of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi is a promising alternative to reduce such expenses. Therefore, the present research aimed at studying the efficiency of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) on dry matter and nutrient accumulation in Sunrise Solo papaya seedlings, by applying doses of P2O5 (triple superphosphate) that are harmful to the symbiosis. The experiment was carried out in a protected environment and was set up in a randomized block design with four replications, and consisted of four P2O5 doses (0, 672, 1386 and 2100 mg dm-3), three mycorrhizal fungi species (Gigaspora margarita, Entrophospora colombiana and Scutellospora heterogama) and the control treatment (mycorrhiza-free). Shoot and root dry matter as well as nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium contents in leaf and root tissues were assessed. Mycorrhizal inoculation promoted a 30% increase in shoot dry matter in relation to the control treatment. Mycorrhizal fungi promoted increases in leaf and root nitrogen content up to 672 mg dm-3 P2O5. Inoculation of E. colombiana favored the highest gains in root and shoot dry matter. P2O5 fertilization increased foliar and root phosphorus content.

Possible consequences of increasing life expectancy in Brazil: the perspective of a European historical demographer

Those over sixty years of age accounted for 6.6% of the total population of Brazil in 1985, in the Federal Republic of Germany this proportion was 20.3% in 1984. As early as 1950 it had been 14.5%. This proportion will not even be reached in Brazil in the year 2000 when persons aged sixty years and older are only projected to make up 8.8% of the total population. Similarly, in 1982/84 life expectancy at birth in the Federal Republic was 70.8 years for men and 77.5 for women; in Brazil the figures for 1980/85 were, by contrast, "only" 61.0 and 66.0. Against this background it is easy to understand why the discussion concerning an ageing society with its many related medical, economic, individual and social problems has been so slow in coming into its own in Brazil. As important as a more intensive consideration of these aspects may be in Brazil at present, they are, nevertheless, only one side of the story. For a European historical demographer with a long-term perspective of three of four hundred years, the other side of the story is just as important. The life expectancy which is almost ten years lower in Brazil is not a result of the fact that no one in Brazil lives to old age. In 1981 people sixty-five years and older accounted for 34.4% of all deaths! At the same time infants accounted for only 22.1% of total mortality. They are responsible, along with the "premature" deaths among youths and adults, for the low, "average" life expectancy figure. In Europe, by contrast, these "premature" deaths no longer play much of a role. In 1982/84 more than half of the women (52.8%) in the Federal Republic of Germany lived to see their eightieth birthdays and almost half of the men (47.3%) lived to see their seventy-fifth. Our biological existence is guaranteed to an extent today that would have been unthinkable a few generations ago. Then, the classic troika of "plague, hunger and war" threatened our forefathers all the time and everywhere. The radical transition from the formerly uncertain to a present-day certain lifetime, which is the result of the repression of "plague, hunger and war", led to unexpected consequences for our living together. Our forefathers were forced to live in closely knit Gemeinschaften in the interest of physical survival and to subordinate their egoistic goals to a common value, but now these pressures have, for the most part, fallen away. Correspondingly, this much more certain EGO has taken center stage. An ever greater number of us chooses to live life as single beings: the number of marriages is lower every year; the number of divorces is on the increase; in Berlin (West) more than half (sic! 52.3%) of all households are already composed on only one person. For the last dozen years the annual number of births in the Federal Republic has been insufficient to ensure population replacement. Not a population explosion but rather the opposite, a population implosion, is our problem. Human beings do not appear to be "social animals", as was axiomatically assumed for so long. They were only forced to behave as such for as long as "plague, hunger and war" forced them to do so. When these life endangering conditions no longer exist and life becomes certain even without their being integrated into a Gemeinschaft then humans suddenly show themselves more and more to be independent single beings. It is not the percentage of the population that is over sixty or sixty-five that is decisive in this context but rather how certain adults perceive their biological lives to be, since they are the ones who organize their lives, who build communities or who are ever more often willing only to enter into means-to-an-end personal unions without lasting or close ties and mutual responsibilities. There are many signs which seem to point to a development in this direction in Brazil as well. More and more adults in Brazil are caught up in the deep-seated transition from an uncertain to a certain lifetime. A third of them die after having reached their sixty-fifth birthday. It therefore seems to me to be high time that one began to give more consideration to the other side of the story in Brazil as well. And who is more suited intensively to consider the long-term perspectives than those engaged in the public health sector in whose competence, after all, such aspects, as "life certainty", "life expectancy" and "age at death" belong?

Happiness, hope and affection as predictors of quality of life and functionality of individuals with heart failure at 3 month follow up

Introduction: Meeting the actual role of positive psychology, begins to be recognized the contribution of positive variables in health outcomes. Objective: To know the contribution of happiness, hope and affection individually and as a whole in the quality of life and functionality of individuals with heart failure. Population and Methodology: 128 individuals with heart failure, 98 men and 30 women, 61.9±12,1 years of age, 6,6±3,9 years of school and 74,2% retired because of this disease. 56,3% were in Class III of New York Heart Association, with poor left ventricular ejection fraction (25,3±6,2%). The clinical history was of 9,4±8,5 years for this heart disease and had at least one hospitalization due to heart failure with 51,6% having ischemic heart disease.

Performance management in health centres: evidence from a field study

There has been a growing interest in research on performance measurement and management practices, which seems to reflect researchers’ response to calls for the need to increase the relevance of management accounting research. However, despite the development of the new public management literature, studies involving public sector organizations are relatively small compared to those involving business organizations and extremely limited when it comes to public primary health care organizations. Yet, the economic significance of public health care organizations in the economy of developed countries and the criticisms these organizations regularly face from the public suggests there is a need for research. This is particularly true in the case of research that may lead to improvement in performance measurement and management practices and ultimately to improvements in the way health care organizations use their limited resources in the provision of services to the communities. This study reports on a field study involving three public primary health care organisations. The evidence obtained from interviews and archival data suggests a performance management practices in these institutions lacked consistency and coherence, potentially leading to decreased performance. Hierarchical controls seemed to be very weak and accountability limited, leading to a lack of direction, low motivation and, in some circumstances to insufficient managerial abilities and skills. Also, the performance management systems revealed a number of weaknesses, which suggests that there are various opportunities for improvement in performance in the studied organisations.

A educação do corpo na formação do actor conectar-se com o corpo

Projecto de Intervenção apresentado à Escola Superior de Educação de Lisboa para obtenção de grau de mestre em Educação Artística, na especialização de Teatro na Educação

VirtualECare: group support in collaborative networks organizations for digital homecare

Collaborative Work plays an important role in today’s organizations, especially in areas where decisions must be made. However, any decision that involves a collective or group of decision makers is, by itself complex, but is becoming recurrent in recent years. In this work we present the VirtualECare project, an intelligent multi-agent system able to monitor, interact and serve its customers, which are, normally, in need of care services. In last year’s there has been a substantially increase on the number of people needed of intensive care, especially among the elderly, a phenomenon that is related to population ageing. However, this is becoming not exclusive of the elderly, as diseases like obesity, diabetes and blood pressure have been increasing among young adults. This is a new reality that needs to be dealt by the health sector, particularly by the public one. Given this scenarios, the importance of finding new and cost effective ways for health care delivery are of particular importance, especially when we believe they should not to be removed from their natural “habitat”. Following this line of thinking, the VirtualECare project will be presented, like similar ones that preceded it. Recently we have also assisted to a growing interest in combining the advances in information society - computing, telecommunications and presentation – in order to create Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS). Indeed, the new economy, along with increased competition in today’s complex business environments, takes the companies to seek complementarities in order to increase competitiveness and reduce risks. Under these scenarios, planning takes a major role in a company life. However, effective planning depends on the generation and analysis of ideas (innovative or not) and, as a result, the idea generation and management processes are crucial. Our objective is to apply the above presented GDSS to a new area. We believe that the use of GDSS in the healthcare arena will allow professionals to achieve better results in the analysis of one’s Electronically Clinical Profile (ECP). This achievement is vital, regarding the explosion of knowledge and skills, together with the need to use limited resources and get better results.

Os (in)sofismáveis caminhos do storytelling : Woody Allen e o documentário ficcionado

ABSTRACT: Between pure documentary and pure fiction there are, more and more, a reasonable number of cinematic alternatives that convey a dimension of non-reality. Between the pointedly factual discourse and the irrational belief in an entirely narrative world, there intervenes an informed conviction in a truthful but nonexistent universe, in which the formal enunciation sells an image of objectivity. In a path that leads us from the forms and contents of reflexive and performative documentaries, according to Bill Nichols, and ends up in fake documentary itself, we will have the opportunity to stress the filmic construction and its inherent narrative purpose, be it a fictional story or the creator himself as character (others would say subject) of the cinematic construct. In a boomerang kind of logic, the more the objects direct us to a referent, the more they restore us a creative/authorial reference and, along with it, the narrative idea that instills it. In Woody Allen’s case, this storytelling manifests itself in the fake documentary genre, which works as if it is the reality, only to better manifest the sole reality that interests the director: that of the metacinema, or the cinema as self-referencial reality. The practical examples will be derived from the following films: Take the Money and Run (1969) e Husbands and Wives (1992).

Projecto de AVAC de um edifício com multiutilização

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica

A importância do follow-up na auditoria interna em Portugal

Mestrado em Auditoria

Epidemiologic transition in northern Angola: discussion of cumulative results from CISA (Health Research Centre of Angola)

The 41 years of armed conflict (1961 to 2002) resulted in a poor development of the health care and education infrastructures, and forced the relocation of people to safer places, namely major urban cities like Luanda. This phase was characterized by typical demographic, nutritional and epidemiological profiles. With the end of this period Angola has been repeatedly ranked as one of the three fastest growing economies in the world, and along with the social stabilization and globalization, the country is facing the introduction of new medical technologies, improvement of health sys-tems and services, better access to them, and overall better quality of life. These changes could also be translating into socio-cultural, demographic and nutritional changes which in turn may leading to changes in the epidemiological profile of the country. Thus, the emergence of non-communicable diseases are likely to become an increasingly im-portant public health problem in Angola. Also, considering that several infectious diseases persist, our weakened health system will have to face a double burden. Thus, disease surveillance data on non-communicable diseases to determine their prevalence and impact, along with the major behavioural risk factors like consumption of tobacco, alcohol, diets and physical inactivity are urgently needed.

Performance management in primary healthcare services: evidence from a field study

Health services

Social network analysis applied to knowledge creation and transfer in the portuguese agricultural R&D field: an exploratory study

Paper presented at the 9th European Conference on Knowledge Management, Southampton Solent University, Southampton, UK, 4-5 Sep. 2008. URL: http://academic-conferences.org/eckm/eckm2008/eckm08-home.htm