Incorporating climate change into water resources planning in England and Wales

Public water supplies in England and Wales are provided by around 25 private-sector companies, regulated by an economic regulator (Ofwat) and and environmental regulator (Environment Agency). As part of the regulatory process, companies are required periodically to review their investment needs to maintain safe and secure supplies, and this involves an assessment of the future balance between water supply and demand. The water industry and regulators have developed an agreed set of procedures for this assessment. Climate change has been incorporated into these procedures since the late 1990s, although has been included increasingly seriously over time and it has been an effective legal requirement to consider climate change since the 2003 Water Act. In the most recent assessment in 2009, companies were required explicitly to plan for a defined amount of climate change, taking into account climate change uncertainty. A “medium” climate change scenario was defined, together with “wet” and “dry” extremes, based on scenarios developed from a number of climate models. The water industry and its regulators are now gearing up to exploit the new UKCP09 probabilistic climate change projections – but these pose significant practical and conceptual challenges. This paper outlines how the procedures for incorporating climate change information into water resources planning have evolved, and explores the issues currently facing the industry in adapting to climate change.

Application of logistic regression for fault analysis in an industrial printing process

A statistical technique for fault analysis in industrial printing is reported. The method specifically deals with binary data, for which the results of the production process fall into two categories, rejected or accepted. The method is referred to as logistic regression, and is capable of predicting future fault occurrences by the analysis of current measurements from machine parts sensors. Individual analysis of each type of fault can determine which parts of the plant have a significant influence on the occurrence of such faults; it is also possible to infer which measurable process parameters have no significant influence on the generation of these faults. Information derived from the analysis can be helpful in the operator's interpretation of the current state of the plant. Appropriate actions may then be taken to prevent potential faults from occurring. The algorithm is being implemented as part of an applied self-learning expert system.

Single nucleotide polymorphisms at the ADIPOQ gene locus interact with age and dietary intake of fat to determine serum adiponectin in subjects at risk of the metabolic syndrome

Background: Adiponectin gene expression is modulated by peroxisome proliferator–activated receptor γ, which is a transcription factor activated by unsaturated fatty acids. Objective: We investigated the effect of the interaction between variants at the ADIPOQ gene locus, age, sex, body mass index (BMI), ethnicity, and the replacement of dietary saturated fatty acids (SFAs) with monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFAs) or carbohydrates on serum adiponectin concentrations. Design: The RISCK (Reading, Imperial, Surrey, Cambridge, and Kings) study is a parallel-design, randomized controlled trial. Serum adiponectin concentrations were measured after a 4-wk high-SFA (HS) diet and a 24-wk intervention with reference (HS), high-MUFA (HM), and low-fat (LF) diets. Single nucleotide polymorphisms at the ADIPOQ locus −11391 G/A (rs17300539), −10066 G/A (rs182052), −7734 A/C (rs16861209), and +276 G/T (rs1501299) were genotyped in 448 participants. Results: In white Europeans, +276 T was associated with higher serum adiponectin concentrations (n = 340; P = 0.006) and −10066 A was associated with lower serum adiponectin concentrations (n = 360; P = 0.03), after adjustment for age, BMI, and sex. After the HM diet, −10066 G/G subjects showed a 3.8% increase (95% CI: −0.1%, 7.7%) and G/A+A/A subjects a 2.6% decrease (95% CI: −5.6%, 0.4%) in serum adiponectin (P = 0.006 for difference after adjustment for the change in BMI, age, and sex). In −10066 G/G homozygotes, serum adiponectin increased with age after the HM diet and decreased after the LF diet. Conclusion: In white −10066 G/G homozygotes, an HM diet may help to increase adiponectin concentrations with advancing age. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as ISRCTN29111298.

Accurate radiometry from space: an essential tool for climate studies

The Earth's climate is undoubtedly changing; however, the time scale, consequences and causal attribution remain the subject of significant debate and uncertainty. Detection of subtle indicators from a background of natural variability requires measurements over a time base of decades. This places severe demands on the instrumentation used, requiring measurements of sufficient accuracy and sensitivity that can allow reliable judgements to be made decades apart. The International System of Units (SI) and the network of National Metrology Institutes were developed to address such requirements. However, ensuring and maintaining SI traceability of sufficient accuracy in instruments orbiting the Earth presents a significant new challenge to the metrology community. This paper highlights some key measurands and applications driving the uncertainty demand of the climate community in the solar reflective domain, e.g. solar irradiances and reflectances/radiances of the Earth. It discusses how meeting these uncertainties facilitate significant improvement in the forecasting abilities of climate models. After discussing the current state of the art, it describes a new satellite mission, called TRUTHS, which enables, for the first time, high-accuracy SI traceability to be established in orbit. The direct use of a ‘primary standard’ and replication of the terrestrial traceability chain extends the SI into space, in effect realizing a ‘metrology laboratory in space’.

Multimodel estimate of the global terrestrial water balance: setup and first results

Six land surface models and five global hydrological models participate in a model intercomparison project (WaterMIP), which for the first time compares simulation results of these different classes of models in a consistent way. In this paper the simulation setup is described and aspects of the multi-model global terrestrial water balance are presented. All models were run at 0.5 degree spatial resolution for the global land areas for a 15-year period (1985-1999) using a newly-developed global meteorological dataset. Simulated global terrestrial evapotranspiration, excluding Greenland and Antarctica, ranges from 415 to 586 mm year-1 (60,000 to 85,000 km3 year-1) and simulated runoff ranges from 290 to 457 mm year-1 (42,000 to 66,000 km3 year-1). Both the mean and median runoff fractions for the land surface models are lower than those of the global hydrological models, although the range is wider. Significant simulation differences between land surface and global hydrological models are found to be caused by the snow scheme employed. The physically-based energy balance approach used by land surface models generally results in lower snow water equivalent values than the conceptual degree-day approach used by global hydrological models. Some differences in simulated runoff and evapotranspiration are explained by model parameterizations, although the processes included and parameterizations used are not distinct to either land surface models or global hydrological models. The results show that differences between model are major sources of uncertainty. Climate change impact studies thus need to use not only multiple climate models, but also some other measure of uncertainty, (e.g. multiple impact models).

Interaction of PPARG Pro12Ala with dietary fat influences plasma lipids in subjects at cardiometabolic risk

The PPARγ2 gene SNP Pro12Ala has shown variable association with metabolic syndrome traits in healthy subjects. We investigated the effect of interaction between genotype and the ratio of polyunsaturated:saturated (P:S) fatty acid intake on plasma lipids in 367 White subjects aged 30-70 y at increased cardiometabolic risk, in the RISCK study. Interaction was determined after habitual diet at recruitment, at baseline after a 4-week high-SFA (HS) diet and after 24-week reference (HS), high-MUFA (HM) and low-fat (LF) diets. At recruitment, there were no significant associations between genotype and plasma lipids, however, P:S x genotype interaction influenced plasma total cholesterol (TC) (P=0.02), LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C) (P=0.002) and triglyceride (TG) (P=0.02) concentrations. At P:S ratio ≤0.33, mean TC and LDL-C concentrations in Ala12 allele carriers were significantly higher than in non-carriers (respectively P=0.003; P=0.0001). Significant trends in reduction of plasma TC (P=0.02) and TG (P=0.002) concentrations occurred with increasing P:S (respectively ≤0.33 to >0.65 and 0.34 to >0.65) in Ala12 allele carriers. There were no significant differences between carriers and non-carriers after the 4-week HS diet or 24-week interventions. Plasma TC and TG concentrations in PPARG Ala12 allele carriers decrease as P:S increases, but are not dependent on a reduction in SFA intake.

A simple device for multiplex ELISA made from melt-extruded plastic microcapillary film

We present a simple device for multiplex quantitative enzyme-linked immunosorbant assays (ELISA) made from a novel melt-extruded microcapillary film (MCF) containing a parallel array of 200µm capillaries along its length. To make ELISA devices different protein antigens or antibodies were immobilised inside individual microcapillaries within long reels of MCF extruded from fluorinated ethylene propylene (FEP). Short pieces of coated film were cut and interfaced with a pipette, allowing sequential uptake of samples and detection solutions into all capillaries from a reagent well. As well as being simple to produce, these FEP MCF devices have excellent light transmittance allowing direct optical interrogation of the capillaries for simple signal quantification. Proof of concept experiments demonstrate both quantitative and multiplex assays in FEP MCF devices using a standard direct ELISA procedure and read using a flatbed scanner. This new multiplex immunoassay platform should find applications ranging from lab detection to point-of-care and field diagnostics.