Semi-parametric forecasting of realized volatility

Forecasts generated by time series models traditionally place greater weight on more recent observations. This paper develops an alternative semi-parametric method for forecasting that does not rely on this convention and applies it to the problem of forecasting asset return volatility. In this approach, a forecast is a weighted average of historical volatility, with the greatest weight given to periods that exhibit similar market conditions to the time at which the forecast is being formed. Weighting is determined by comparing short-term trends in volatility across time (as a measure of market conditions) by means of a multivariate kernel scheme. It is found that the semi-parametric method produces forecasts that are significantly more accurate than a number of competing approaches at both short and long forecast horizons.

Accounting Research Journal Editorial : "ARJ – The First 25 Years"

In this 25th year of publication of the Accounting Research Journal we pay tribute to the efforts of the dedicated Editors who have successfully guided and developed the journal since its inception in 1988. After the rapid growth in accounting and finance research in the 1970s and 1980s the absence of outlets in Asia-Pacific region to publish novel, timely and applied research became increasingly apparent. In response to this gap, ARJ’s first volume was published in 1988 by the School of Accountancy at the Queensland Institute of Technology (QIT), which became the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) in the following year. The founding Editor was Myles McGregor-Lowndes and his editorship continued for three years until Scott Holmes took over as Editor in 1991. In 1992, Robert Faff joined Scott Holmes as Joint Editor, and their joint editorship continued for six years until Robert Faff took the reins as Editor in 1998. At that time Scott remained as Associate Editor and the editorial team was joined by Roger Willett as Consulting Editor and Chris Lambert as Associate Editor. This arrangement continued until 2002 when Tim Brailsford was newly appointed as Managing Editor. The editorship returned to QUT in 2008 and was taken on by Chris Ryan with our support as Co-editors. Since 2011 we have been the Joint Editors. Table 1 lists the individuals who have been involved in editing ARJ over the 25-year period and their roles...

Queensland Emergency Medicine Research Foundation: Special report

The development of any new profession is dependent on the development of a special body of knowledge which is the domain of the profession and key to this is the conduct of research. In 2007, as part of the settlement of an Enterprise Bargaining Agreement and following sustained lobbying by Emergency Physicians, the Queensland Government agreed to establish an Emergency Medicine Research Fund to foster the development of research activities in Emergency Medicine in Queensland. That fund is now managed by the Queensland Emergency Medicine Research Foundation. The aims of this article are to describe the strategic approaches taken by the Foundation and its first three years of experience, to describe the application of research funds and to foreshadow an evaluative framework for determining the strategic value of this community investment. The Foundation has developed a range of personnel and project support funding programs and competition for funding has increased. Ongoing evaluation will seek to determine the effectiveness of this funding strategy on improving the effectiveness of research performance and the clinical and organisational outcomes that may derive from that initiative.

Pandemic (H1N1) Influenza 2009 and Australian emergency departments : implications for policy, practice and pandemic preparedness

Objective: To describe the reported impact of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 on EDs, so as to inform future pandemic policy, planning and response management. Methods: This study comprised an issue and theme analysis of publicly accessible literature, data from jurisdictional health departments, and data obtained from two electronic surveys of ED directors and ED staff. The issues identified formed the basis of policy analysis and evaluation. Results: Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 had a significant impact on EDs with presentation for patients with ‘influenza-like illness’ up to three times that of the same time in previous years. Staff reported a range of issues, including poor awareness of pandemic plans, patient and family aggression, chaotic information flow to themselves and the public, heightened stress related to increased workloads and lower levels of staffing due to illness, family care duties and redeployment of staff to flu clinics. Staff identified considerable discomfort associated with prolonged times wearing personal protective equipment. Staff believed that the care of non-flu patients was compromised during the pandemic as a result of overwork, distraction from core business and the difficulties associated with accommodating infectious patients in an environment that was not conducive. Conclusions: This paper describes the breadth of the impact of pandemics on ED operations. It identifies a need to address a range of industrial, management and procedural issues. In particular, there is a need for a single authoritative source of information, the re-engineering of EDs to accommodate infectious patients and organizational changes to enable rapid deployment of alternative sources of care.

Quality of work life among primary health care nurses in the Jazan region, Saudi Arabia : a crosssectional study

Background: Quality of work life (QWL) is defined as the extent to which employee is satisfied with personal and working needs through participating in the workplace while achieving the organisation’s goals. QWL has been found to influence the commitment and productivity of employees in healthcare organisations, as well as in other industries. However, reliable information on the QWL of PHC nurses is limited. The purpose of this study was to assess the QWL among PHC nurses in the Jazan region, Saudi Arabia. Methods: A descriptive research design, namely, a cross-sectional survey was used in this study. Data were collected using Brooks’ survey of quality of nursing work life (QNWL) and demographic questions. A convenience sample was recruited from 143 PHC centres in Jazan, Saudi Arabia. The Jazan region is located in the southern part of Saudi Arabia. A response rate of 91% (N = 532/585) was achieved (effective RR = 87%, n = 508). Data analysis consisted of descriptive statistics, t-test and one way-analysis of variance. Total scores and sub-scores for QWL Items and item summary statistics were computed and reported, using SPSS version 17 for Windows. Results: Findings suggested that the respondents were dissatisfied with their work life. The major influencing factors were unsuitable working hours/shifts, lack of facilities for nurses, inability to balance work with family needs, inadequacy of family-leave time, poor staffing, management and supervision practices, lack of professional development opportunities, and inappropriate working environment in terms of the level of security, patient care supplies and equipment, and recreation facilities (Break-area). Other essential factors include the community’s view of nursing and inadequate salary. More positively, the majority of nurses were satisfied with their co-workers, satisfied to be nurses and had a sense of belonging in their workplaces. Significant differences were found according to gender, age, marital status, dependent children, dependent adults, nationality, ethnicity, nursing tenure, organisational tenure, positional tenure, and payment per month. No significant differences were found according to education level and location of PHC. Conclusions: These findings can be used by PHC managers and policy makers for developing and appropriately implementing successful plans to improve the QWL. This will help to enhance the home and work environments, improve individual and organisation performance and increase nurses’ commitment.

The relationship between quality of work life and turnover intention of primary health care nurses in Saudi Arabia

Background Quality of work life (QWL) has been found to influence the commitment of health professionals including nurses. However, reliable information on the QWL and turnover intention of primary health care (PHC) nurses is limited. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between QWL and turnover intention of PHC nurses in Saudi Arabia. Methods A cross-sectional survey was used in this study. Data were collected using Brooks’ survey of Quality of Nursing Work life (QNWL), the Anticipated Turnover Scale and demographic data questions. A total of 508 PHC nurses in the Jazan region, Saudi Arabia completed the questionnaire (RR = 87%). Descriptive statistics, t-test, ANOVA, General Linear Model (GLM) univariate analysis, standard multiple regression (SMR), and hierarchical multiple regression (HMR) were applied for analysis using SPSS v17 for Windows. Results Findings suggested that the respondents were dissatisfied with their work life, with almost 40% indicating a turnover intention from their current PHC centres. Turnover intention was significantly related to QWL. Using SMR, 26% of the variance in turnover intention was explained by the QWL, p < 0.001, with R² = .263. Further analysis using HMR found that the total variance explained by the model as a whole (demographics and QWL) was 32.1%, p < 0.001. QWL explained an additional 19% of the variance in turnover intention, after controlling for demographic variables. Conclusions Creating and maintaining a healthy work life for PHC nurses is very important to improve their work satisfaction, reduce turnover, enhance productivity and improve nursing care outcomes.

An analysis of the corporate governance practices of smaller listed Australian companies

We examine the corporate governance environment of smaller listed Australian firms to investigate the factors that determine how firms respond to recommendations contained in corporate governance codes. We group corporate governance recommendations into three distinct categories and argue that differences in adoption costs between categories, together with firm specific factors, determine a firm’s decision to conform with the recommendation or to explain the reasons for non-conformance. Analysis of the conformance by smaller firms with governance recommendations highlights substantial differences in adoption rates between categories of recommendations. Our results also reveal that the cost of adopting specific recommendations, together with profitability, external audit quality, and ownership dispersion, jointly explain a firm’s decision to ‘comply or explain’. This study provides insights for policy makers and regulators regarding the appropriateness of corporate governance recommendations for smaller firms

The impact of litigation risk on corporate prospective disclosure : a review of the empirical literature

We review the literature on the impact of litigation risk (a form of external governance) on corporate prospective disclosure decisions as reflected in management earnings forecasts. From this analysis we identify four key areas for future research. First, litigation risk warrants more attention from researchers; currently it tends to be treated as a secondary factor impacting MEF decisions. Second, it would be informative from a governance perspective for researchers to explore why litigation risk has a differential impact on MEF decisions across countries. Third, understanding the interaction between litigation risk and forecast/firm-specific characteristics is important from management, investor and regulatory perspectives but is currently under-explored Last, research on the litigation risk and MEF attributes link is piecemeal and incomplete, requiring more integrated and expanded analysis.

Ambulance use is associated with higher self-rated illness seriousness : user attitudes and perceptions

Objectives The objective was to study the role and effect of patients' perceptions on reasons for using ambulance services in Queensland, Australia. Methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted of patients (n = 911) presenting via ambulance or self-transport at eight public hospital emergency departments (EDs). The survey included perceived illness severity, attitudes toward ambulance, and reasons for using ambulance. A theoretical framework was developed to inform this study. Results Ambulance users had significantly higher self-rated perceived seriousness, urgency, and pain than self-transports. They were also more likely to agree that ambulance services are for everyone to use, regardless of the severity of their conditions. In compared to self-transports, likelihood of using an ambulance increased by 26% for every unit increase in perceived seriousness; and patients who had not used an ambulance in the 6 months prior to the survey were 66% less likely to arrive by ambulance. Patients who had presented via ambulance stated they considered the urgency (87%) or severity (84%) of their conditions as reasons for calling the ambulance. Other reasons included requiring special care (76%), getting higher priority at the ED (34%), not having a car (34%), and financial concerns (17%). Conclusions Understanding patients' perceptions is essential in explaining their actions and developing safe and effective health promotion programs. Individuals use ambulances for various reasons and justifications according to their beliefs, attitudes, and sociodemographic conditions. Policies to reduce and manage demand for such services need to address both general opinions and specific attitudes toward emergency health services to be effective.

Industry branding : attracting talent to weaker profile industries

There is global competition for engineering talent with some industries struggling to attract quality candidates. The ‘brands’ of industries and organisations are important elements in attracting talent in a competitive environment. Using brand equity and signalling theory, this paper reports a quantitative study examining factors that attract graduating engineers and technicians to engineering careers in a weak brand profile industry. The survey measures graduating engineers’ preferences for career benefits and their perceptions of the rail industry, which has identified a significant skilled labour shortfall. Knowledge of young engineers’ preferences for certain benefits and segmenting preferences can inform branding and communications strategies. The findings have implications for all industries and organisations, especially those with a weaker brand profile and issues with attracting talent.

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990–2010 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Findings Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350 000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient −0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Rates of YLDs per 100 000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Decision and reasons for calling an ambulance : patients’ perspective

Background: Demand for pre-hospital emergency care is increasing in Australia as in many other countries. Using posthoc criteria such as triage, diagnosis and admission status, some authors view a considerable number of these as "inappropriate". Yet, calling an ambulance at the time of emergency is rarely studied from the patients’ or their carers’ perspective. This study interviewed patients about the decision, circumstances surrounding and reasons for calling an ambulance in Queensland, Australia. Methods: A cross-sectional survey of patients attending a sample of eight public hospital emergency departments in Queensland was undertaken between March and May 2011. In total, 911 questionnaires were collected (response rate: 67%), of whom 226 (24.8%) had arrived by ambulance. Results: In 35.6% of ambulance arrivals, the decision to request an ambulance was made by the patient; 25% by a doctor; 20% by a family member, friend or carer. Other callers included nurse, people at work or school, and passers-by. Reasons to request an ambulance included urgency (87%) and severity (84%) of the condition. Other reasons included requiring special care (76%), getting higher priority at the emergency department (34%), not having a car (34%), and financial concerns (17%). Decision to request an ambulance varied significantly according to the time of illness onset (e.g. on the day, week before), and location (e.g. home, outside). Conclusion: The decision to call an ambulance is made mostly by non-medical professionals in a perceived emergency situation. They call the ambulance for different reasons but mainly take into account the patient’s welfare and safety. Better understanding of these reasons will affect the direction and effectiveness of demand management strategies.

The growing demand for emergency healthcare

Emergency health is a critical component of health systems; one increasingly congested from growing demand and blocked access to care. The Emergency Health Services Queensland (EHSQ) study aimed to identify the factors driving increased demand for emergency healthcare. This study examined data on patients treated by the ambulance service and Emergency Departments across Queensland. Data was derived from the Queensland Ambulance Service’s (QAS) Ambulance Information Management System and electronic Ambulance Report Form and from the Emergency Department Information System (EDIS). Data was obtained for the period 2001-02 through to 2009-10. A snapshot of users for the 2009-10 year was used to describe the characteristics of users and comparisons made with the year 2003-04 to identify trends. Per capita demand for EDs has increased by 2% per annum over the decade and for ambulance by 3.7% per annum. The growth in ED demand is most significant in more urgent triage categories with decline in less urgent patients. The growth is most prominent amongst patients suffering injuries and poisoning, amongst both men and women and across all age groups. Patients from lower socioeconomic areas appear to have higher utilisation rates and the utilisation rate for indigenous people exceeds those of other backgrounds. The utilisation rates for immigrant people is less than Australian born however it has not been possible to eliminate the confounding impact of age and socioeconomic profiles. These findings contribute to an understanding of the growth in demand for emergency health. It is evident that the growth is amongst patients in genuine need of emergency healthcare and public rhetoric that congested emergency health services is due to inappropriate attendees is unsustainable. The growth in demand over the last decade reflects not only on changing demographics of the Australian population but also changes in health status, standards of acute health care and other social factors.

Catalytic effects of subsurface carbon in the chemisorption of hydrogen on a Mg(0001) surface: an ab-initio study

Ab initio density functional theory (DFT) calculations are performed to explore possible catalytic effects on the dissociative chemisorption of hydrogen on a Mg(0001) surface when carbon is incorporated into Mg materials. The computational results imply that a C atom located initially on a Mg(0001) surface can migrate into the subsurface and occupy an fcc interstitial site, with charge transfer to the C atom from neighboring Mg atoms. The effect of subsurface C on the dissociation of H2 on the Mg(0001) surface is found to be relatively marginal: a perfect sublayer of interstitial C is calculated to lower the barrier by 0.16 eV compared with that on a pure Mg(0001) surface. Further calculations reveal, however, that sublayer C may have a significant effect in enhancing the diffusion of atomic hydrogen into the sublayers through fcc channels. This contributes new physical understanding toward rationalizing the experimentally observed improvement in absorption kinetics of H2 when graphite or single walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNT) are introduced into the Mg powder during ball milling.