Feeding ecology of the fish ectoparasite Gnathia sp. (Crustacea: Isopoda) from the Great Barrier Reef, and its implications for fish cleaning behaviour

The feeding rate of a parasitic gnathiid isopod on fish was examined. Individual fish, Hemigymnus melapterus, were exposed to gnathiid larvae and sampled after 5, 10, 30, 60, and 240 min. I recorded whether larvae had an engorged gut, an engorged gut containing red material, or had dropped off the fish after having completed engorgement; variation among sampling times and larval stages was analyzed using generalized linear mixed model analyses. The likelihood that larvae had an engorged gut increased with time and varied with larval stage. First stage (1.45 mm) larvae. After 30 min, however, most (>93%) larvae had an engorged gut regardless of their larval stage. The likelihood of red material in the gut of third stage larvae increased over time (46% after 30 min, 70% after 60 min, and 86% after 240 min) while that of first and second stage larvae remained relatively low (

Comparison of virulence gene profiles of Escherichia coli strains isolated from healthy and diarrheic swine

A combination of uni- and multiplex PCR assays targeting 58 virulence genes (VGs) associated with Escherichia coli strains causing intestinal and extraintestinal disease in humans and other mammals was used to analyze the VG repertoire of 23 commensal E. coli isolates from healthy pigs and 52 clinical isolates associated with porcine neonatal diarrhea (ND) and postweaning diarrhea (PWD). The relationship between the presence and absence of VGs was interrogated using three statistical methods. According to the generalized linear model, 17 of 58 VGs were found to be significant (P < 0.05) in distinguishing between commensal and clinical isolates. Nine of the 17 genes represented by iha, hlyA, aidA, east1, aah, fimH, iroN(E).(coli), traT, and saa have not been previously identified as important VGs in clinical porcine isolates in Australia. The remaining eight VGs code for fimbriae (F4, F5, F18, and F41) and toxins (STa, STh, LT, and Stx2), normally associated with porcine enterotoxigenic E. coli. Agglomerative hierarchical algorithm analysis grouped E. coli strains into subclusters based primarily on their serogroup. Multivariate analyses of clonal relationships based on the 17 VGs were collapsed into two-dimensional space by principal coordinate analysis. PWD clones were distributed in two quadrants, separated from ND and commensal clones, which tended to cluster within one quadrant. Clonal subclusters within quadrants were highly correlated with serogroups. These methods of analysis provide different perspectives in our attempts to understand how commensal and clinical porcine enterotoxigenic E. coli strains have evolved and are engaged in the dynamic process of losing or acquiring VGs within the pig population.

Onset of sheath extension and duration of lamina extension are major determinants of the response of maize lamina length to plant density

Background and Aims Plants regulate their architecture strongly in response to density, and there is evidence that this involves changes in the duration of leaf extension. This questions the approximation, central in crop models, that development follows a fixed thermal time schedule. The aim of this research is to investigate, using maize as a model, how the kinetics of extension of grass leaves change with density, and to propose directions for inclusion of this regulation in plant models. • Methods Periodic dissection of plants allowed the establishment of the kinetics of lamina and sheath extension for two contrasting sowing densities. The temperature of the growing zone was measured with thermocouples. Two-phase (exponential plus linear) models were fitted to the data, allowing analysis of the timing of the phase changes of extension, and the extension rate of sheaths and blades during both phases. • Key Results The duration of lamina extension dictated the variation in lamina length between treatments. The lower phytomers were longer at high density, with delayed onset of sheath extension allowing more time for the lamina to extend. In the upper phytomers—which were shorter at high density—the laminae had a lower relative extension rate (RER) in the exponential phase and delayed onset of linear extension, and less time available for extension since early sheath extension was not delayed. • Conclusions The relative timing of the onset of fast extension of the lamina with that of sheath development is the main determinant of the response of lamina length to density. Evidence is presented that the contrasting behaviour of lower and upper phytomers is related to differing regulation of sheath ontogeny before and after panicle initiation. A conceptual model is proposed to explain how the observed asynchrony between lamina and sheath development is regulated.

Estimating conditional volatility with neural networks

It is well known that one of the obstacles to effective forecasting of exchange rates is heteroscedasticity (non-stationary conditional variance). The autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) model and its variants have been used to estimate a time dependent variance for many financial time series. However, such models are essentially linear in form and we can ask whether a non-linear model for variance can improve results just as non-linear models (such as neural networks) for the mean have done. In this paper we consider two neural network models for variance estimation. Mixture Density Networks (Bishop 1994, Nix and Weigend 1994) combine a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and a mixture model to estimate the conditional data density. They are trained using a maximum likelihood approach. However, it is known that maximum likelihood estimates are biased and lead to a systematic under-estimate of variance. More recently, a Bayesian approach to parameter estimation has been developed (Bishop and Qazaz 1996) that shows promise in removing the maximum likelihood bias. However, up to now, this model has not been used for time series prediction. Here we compare these algorithms with two other models to provide benchmark results: a linear model (from the ARIMA family), and a conventional neural network trained with a sum-of-squares error function (which estimates the conditional mean of the time series with a constant variance noise model). This comparison is carried out on daily exchange rate data for five currencies.

Developments of the generative topographic mapping

The generative topographic mapping (GTM) model was introduced by Bishop et al. (1998, Neural Comput. 10(1), 215-234) as a probabilistic re- formulation of the self-organizing map (SOM). It offers a number of advantages compared with the standard SOM, and has already been used in a variety of applications. In this paper we report on several extensions of the GTM, including an incremental version of the EM algorithm for estimating the model parameters, the use of local subspace models, extensions to mixed discrete and continuous data, semi-linear models which permit the use of high-dimensional manifolds whilst avoiding computational intractability, Bayesian inference applied to hyper-parameters, and an alternative framework for the GTM based on Gaussian processes. All of these developments directly exploit the probabilistic structure of the GTM, thereby allowing the underlying modelling assumptions to be made explicit. They also highlight the advantages of adopting a consistent probabilistic framework for the formulation of pattern recognition algorithms.

Efficient training of RBF networks for classification

Radial Basis Function networks with linear outputs are often used in regression problems because they can be substantially faster to train than Multi-layer Perceptrons. For classification problems, the use of linear outputs is less appropriate as the outputs are not guaranteed to represent probabilities. In this paper we show how RBFs with logistic and softmax outputs can be trained efficiently using algorithms derived from Generalised Linear Models. This approach is compared with standard non-linear optimisation algorithms on a number of datasets.

DVMS 1.5: A user manual (the data visualization and modeling system)

The data available during the drug discovery process is vast in amount and diverse in nature. To gain useful information from such data, an effective visualisation tool is required. To provide better visualisation facilities to the domain experts (screening scientist, biologist, chemist, etc.),we developed a software which is based on recently developed principled visualisation algorithms such as Generative Topographic Mapping (GTM) and Hierarchical Generative Topographic Mapping (HGTM). The software also supports conventional visualisation techniques such as Principal Component Analysis, NeuroScale, PhiVis, and Locally Linear Embedding (LLE). The software also provides global and local regression facilities . It supports regression algorithms such as Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Radial Basis Functions network (RBF), Generalised Linear Models (GLM), Mixture of Experts (MoE), and newly developed Guided Mixture of Experts (GME). This user manual gives an overview of the purpose of the software tool, highlights some of the issues to be taken care while creating a new model, and provides information about how to install & use the tool. The user manual does not require the readers to have familiarity with the algorithms it implements. Basic computing skills are enough to operate the software.

Bayesian data assimilation

This thesis addresses data assimilation, which typically refers to the estimation of the state of a physical system given a model and observations, and its application to short-term precipitation forecasting. A general introduction to data assimilation is given, both from a deterministic and' stochastic point of view. Data assimilation algorithms are reviewed, in the static case (when no dynamics are involved), then in the dynamic case. A double experiment on two non-linear models, the Lorenz 63 and the Lorenz 96 models, is run and the comparative performance of the methods is discussed in terms of quality of the assimilation, robustness "in the non-linear regime and computational time. Following the general review and analysis, data assimilation is discussed in the particular context of very short-term rainfall forecasting (nowcasting) using radar images. An extended Bayesian precipitation nowcasting model is introduced. The model is stochastic in nature and relies on the spatial decomposition of the rainfall field into rain "cells". Radar observations are assimilated using a Variational Bayesian method in which the true posterior distribution of the parameters is approximated by a more tractable distribution. The motion of the cells is captured by a 20 Gaussian process. The model is tested on two precipitation events, the first dominated by convective showers, the second by precipitation fronts. Several deterministic and probabilistic validation methods are applied and the model is shown to retain reasonable prediction skill at up to 3 hours lead time. Extensions to the model are discussed.

Quantifying short-term dynamics of Parkinson's disease using self-reported symptom data from an internet social network

Background: Parkinson’s disease (PD) is an incurable neurological disease with approximately 0.3% prevalence. The hallmark symptom is gradual movement deterioration. Current scientific consensus about disease progression holds that symptoms will worsen smoothly over time unless treated. Accurate information about symptom dynamics is of critical importance to patients, caregivers, and the scientific community for the design of new treatments, clinical decision making, and individual disease management. Long-term studies characterize the typical time course of the disease as an early linear progression gradually reaching a plateau in later stages. However, symptom dynamics over durations of days to weeks remains unquantified. Currently, there is a scarcity of objective clinical information about symptom dynamics at intervals shorter than 3 months stretching over several years, but Internet-based patient self-report platforms may change this. Objective: To assess the clinical value of online self-reported PD symptom data recorded by users of the health-focused Internet social research platform PatientsLikeMe (PLM), in which patients quantify their symptoms on a regular basis on a subset of the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Ratings Scale (UPDRS). By analyzing this data, we aim for a scientific window on the nature of symptom dynamics for assessment intervals shorter than 3 months over durations of several years. Methods: Online self-reported data was validated against the gold standard Parkinson’s Disease Data and Organizing Center (PD-DOC) database, containing clinical symptom data at intervals greater than 3 months. The data were compared visually using quantile-quantile plots, and numerically using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. By using a simple piecewise linear trend estimation algorithm, the PLM data was smoothed to separate random fluctuations from continuous symptom dynamics. Subtracting the trends from the original data revealed random fluctuations in symptom severity. The average magnitude of fluctuations versus time since diagnosis was modeled by using a gamma generalized linear model. Results: Distributions of ages at diagnosis and UPDRS in the PLM and PD-DOC databases were broadly consistent. The PLM patients were systematically younger than the PD-DOC patients and showed increased symptom severity in the PD off state. The average fluctuation in symptoms (UPDRS Parts I and II) was 2.6 points at the time of diagnosis, rising to 5.9 points 16 years after diagnosis. This fluctuation exceeds the estimated minimal and moderate clinically important differences, respectively. Not all patients conformed to the current clinical picture of gradual, smooth changes: many patients had regimes where symptom severity varied in an unpredictable manner, or underwent large rapid changes in an otherwise more stable progression. Conclusions: This information about short-term PD symptom dynamics contributes new scientific understanding about the disease progression, currently very costly to obtain without self-administered Internet-based reporting. This understanding should have implications for the optimization of clinical trials into new treatments and for the choice of treatment decision timescales.

Practical methods of tracking of nonstationary time series applied to real-world data

In this paper, we discuss some practical implications for implementing adaptable network algorithms applied to non-stationary time series problems. Two real world data sets, containing electricity load demands and foreign exchange market prices, are used to test several different methods, ranging from linear models with fixed parameters, to non-linear models which adapt both parameters and model order on-line. Training with the extended Kalman filter, we demonstrate that the dynamic model-order increment procedure of the resource allocating RBF network (RAN) is highly sensitive to the parameters of the novelty criterion. We investigate the use of system noise for increasing the plasticity of the Kalman filter training algorithm, and discuss the consequences for on-line model order selection. The results of our experiments show that there are advantages to be gained in tracking real world non-stationary data through the use of more complex adaptive models.

Parameter Identification of a Fed-Batch Cultivation of S. Cerevisiae using Genetic Algorithms

Fermentation processes as objects of modelling and high-quality control are characterized with interdependence and time-varying of process variables that lead to non-linear models with a very complex structure. This is why the conventional optimization methods cannot lead to a satisfied solution. As an alternative, genetic algorithms, like the stochastic global optimization method, can be applied to overcome these limitations. The application of genetic algorithms is a precondition for robustness and reaching of a global minimum that makes them eligible and more workable for parameter identification of fermentation models. Different types of genetic algorithms, namely simple, modified and multi-population ones, have been applied and compared for estimation of nonlinear dynamic model parameters of fed-batch cultivation of S. cerevisiae.

Statistical Inference for Processes Depending on Environments and Application in Regenerative Processes

We build the Conditional Least Squares Estimator of 0 based on the observation of a single trajectory of {Zk,Ck}k, and give conditions ensuring its strong consistency. The particular case of general linear models according to 0=( 0, 0) and among them, regenerative processes, are studied more particularly. In this frame, we may also prove the consistency of the estimator of 0 although it belongs to an asymptotic negligible part of the model, and the asymptotic law of the estimator may also be calculated.

Factors associated with prompt difficulty in automated essay scoring

This study explores factors related to the prompt difficulty in Automated Essay Scoring. The sample was composed of 6,924 students. For each student, there were 1-4 essays, across 20 different writing prompts, for a total of 20,243 essays. E-rater® v.2 essay scoring engine developed by the Educational Testing Service was used to score the essays. The scoring engine employs a statistical model that incorporates 10 predictors associated with writing characteristics of which 8 were used. The Rasch partial credit analysis was applied to the scores to determine the difficulty levels of prompts. In addition, the scores were used as outcomes in the series of hierarchical linear models (HLM) in which students and prompts constituted the cross-classification levels. This methodology was used to explore the partitioning of the essay score variance.^ The results indicated significant differences in prompt difficulty levels due to genre. Descriptive prompts, as a group, were found to be more difficult than the persuasive prompts. In addition, the essay score variance was partitioned between students and prompts. The amount of the essay score variance that lies between prompts was found to be relatively small (4 to 7 percent). When the essay-level, student-level-and prompt-level predictors were included in the model, it was able to explain almost all variance that lies between prompts. Since in most high-stakes writing assessments only 1-2 prompts per students are used, the essay score variance that lies between prompts represents an undesirable or "noise" variation. Identifying factors associated with this "noise" variance may prove to be important for prompt writing and for constructing Automated Essay Scoring mechanisms for weighting prompt difficulty when assigning essay score.^

Periphyton light transmission relationships in Florida Bay and the Florida Keys, USA

Light transmission was measured through intact, submerged periphyton communities on artificial seagrass leaves. The periphyton communities were representative of the communities on Thalassia testudinum in subtropical seagrass meadows. The periphyton communities sampled were adhered carbonate sediment, coralline algae, and mixed algal assemblages. Crustose or film-forming periphyton assemblages were best prepared for light transmission measurements using artificial leaves fouled on both sides, while measurements through three-dimensional filamentous algae required the periphyton to be removed from one side. For one-sided samples, light transmission could be measured as the difference between fouled and reference artificial leaf samples. For two-sided samples, the percent periphyton light transmission to the leaf surface was calculated as the square root of the fraction of incident light. Linear, exponential, and hyperbolic equations were evaluated as descriptors of the periphyton dry weight versus light transmission relationship. Hyperbolic and exponential decay models were superior to linear models and exhibited the best fits for the observed relationships. Differences between the coefficients of determination (r2) of hyperbolic and exponential decay models were statistically insignificant. Constraining these models for 100% light transmission at zero periphyton load did not result in any statistically significant loss in the explanatory capability of the models. In most all cases, increasing model complexity using three-parameter models rather than two-parameter models did not significantly increase the amount of variation explained. Constrained two-parameter hyperbolic or exponential decay models were judged best for describing the periphyton dry weight versus light transmission relationship. On T. testudinum in Florida Bay and the Florida Keys, significant differences were not observed in the light transmission characteristics of the varying periphyton communities at different study sites. Using pooled data from the study sites, the hyperbolic decay coefficient for periphyton light transmission was estimated to be 4.36 mg dry wt. cm−2. For exponential models, the exponential decay coefficient was estimated to be 0.16 cm2 mg dry wt.−1.