ICES status report on climate change in the North Atlantic

Although the physical and chemical principles that explain the warming of the Earth’s system resulting from emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases were understood at the end of the 19th century (Tyndall, 1861; Arrhenius, 1896) and at the beginning of the 20th century (Callendar, 1938), it was almost 100 years later, in the mid‐1980s, before it was realized that these processes were contributing to a rapid change in climate. The potential consequences of this global warming have still to be revealed and are difficult to anticipate.

In hot water: zooplankton and climate change

An overview is provided of the observed and potential future responses of zooplankton communities to global warming. I begin by describing the importance of zooplankton in ocean ecosystems and the attributes that make them sensitive beacons of climate change. Global warming may have even greater repercussions for marine ecosystems than for terrestrial ecosystems, because temperature influences water column stability, nutrient enrichment, and the degree of new production, and thus the abundance, size composition, diversity, and trophic efficiency of zooplankton. Pertinent descriptions of physical changes in the ocean in response to climate change are given as a prelude to a detailed discussion of observed impacts of global warming on zooplankton. These manifest as changes in the distribution of individual species and assemblages, in the timing of important life-cycle events, and in abundance and community structure. The most illustrative case studies, where climate has had an obvious, tangible impact on zooplankton and substantial ecosystem consequences, are presented. Changes in the distribution and phenology of zooplankton are faster and greater than those observed for terrestrial groups. Relevant projected changes in ocean conditions are then presented, followed by an exploration of potential future changes in zooplankton communities from the perspective of different modelling approaches. Researchers have used a range of modelling approaches on individual species and functional groups forced by output from climate models under future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. I conclude by suggesting some potential future directions in climate change research for zooplankton, viz. the use of richer zooplankton functional groups in ecosystem models; greater research effort in tropical systems; investigating climate change in conjunction with other human impacts; and a global zooplankton observing system.

Air-Sea Exchange of Marine Trace Gases

Many of the reactive trace gases detected in the atmosphere are both emitted from and deposited to the global oceans via exchange across the air–sea interface. The resistance to transfer through both air and water phases is highly sensitive to physical drivers (waves, bubbles, films, etc.), which can either enhance or suppress the rate of diffusion. In addition to outlining the fundamental processes controlling the air–sea gas exchange, the authors discuss these drivers, describe the existing parameterizations used to predict transfer velocities, and summarize the novel techniques for measuring in situ exchange rates. They review trace gases that influence climate via radiative forcing (greenhouse gases), those that can alter the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere (nitrogen- and sulfur-containing gases), and those that impact ozone levels (organohalogens), both in the troposphere and stratosphere. They review the known biological and chemical routes of production and destruction within the water column for these gases, whether the ocean acts as a source or sink, and whether temporal and spatial variations in saturation anomalies are observed. A current estimate of the marine contribution to the total atmospheric flux of these gases, which often highlights the significance of the oceans in biogeochemical cycling of trace gases, is provided, and how air–sea gas fluxes may change in the future is briefly assessed.

Quantifying ecosystem-level consequences of ocean acidification and warming by scaling up individual level responses of a predator snail and its trophic interactions

Understanding long‐term, ecosystem‐level impacts of climate change is challenging because experimental research frequently focuses on short‐term, individual‐level impacts in isolation. We address this shortcoming first through an interdisciplinary ensemble of novel experimental techniques to investigate the impacts of 14‐month exposure to ocean acidification and warming (OAW) on the physiology, activity, predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predation of an important marine gastropod (Nucella lapillus). We simultaneously estimated the potential impacts of these global drivers on N. lapillus population dynamics and dispersal parameters. We then used these data to parameterize a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model, to investigate the consequences of OAW on the distribution of the species in the wider NE Atlantic region by 2100. The model accounts also for changes in the distribution of resources, suitable habitat and environment simulated by finely resolved biogeochemical models, under three IPCC global emissions scenarios. The experiments showed that temperature had the greatest impact on individual‐level responses, while acidification had a similarly important role in the mediation of predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predators. Changes in Nucella predatory behaviour appeared to serve as a strategy to mitigate individual‐level impacts of acidification, but the development of this response may be limited in the presence of predators. The model projected significant large‐scale changes in the distribution of Nucella by the year 2100 that were exacerbated by rising greenhouse gas emissions. These changes were spatially heterogeneous, as the degree of impact of OAW on the combination of responses considered by the model varied depending on local‐environmental conditions and resource availability. Such changes in macro‐scale distributions cannot be predicted by investigating individual‐level impacts in isolation, or by considering climate stressors separately. Scaling up the results of experimental climate change research requires approaches that account for long‐term, multiscale responses to multiple stressors, in an ecosystem context.

Scaling up experimental ocean acidification and warming research: from individuals to the ecosystem

Understanding long-term, ecosystem-level impacts of climate change is challenging because experimental research frequently focuses on short-term, individual-level impacts in isolation. We address this shortcoming first through an inter-disciplinary ensemble of novel experimental techniques to investigate the impacts of 14-month exposure to ocean acidification and warming (OAW) on the physiology, activity, predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predation of an important marine gastropod (Nucella lapillus). We simultaneously estimated the potential impacts of these global drivers on N. lapillus population dynamics and dispersal parameters. We then used these data to parameterise a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model, to investigate the consequences of OAW on the distribution of the species in the wider NE Atlantic region by 2100. The model accounts also for changes in the distribution of resources, suitable habitat and environment simulated by finely resolved biogeochemical models, under three IPCC global emissions scenarios. The experiments showed that temperature had the greatest impact on individual level responses, while acidification has a similarly important role in the mediation of predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predators. Changes in Nucella predatory behaviour appeared to serve as a strategy to mitigate individual level impacts of acidification, but the development of this response may be limited in the presence of predators. The model projected significant large-scale changes in the distribution of Nucella by the year 2100 that were exacerbated by rising greenhouse gas emissions. These changes were spatially heterogeneous, as the degree of impact of OAW on the combination of responses considered by the model varied depending on local environmental conditions and resource availability. Such changes in macro-scale distributions cannot be predicted by investigating individual level impacts in isolation, or by considering climate stressors separately. Scaling up the results of experimental climate change research requires approaches that account for long-term, multi-scale responses to multiple stressors, in an ecosystem context.

Ecosystem function and services provided by the deep sea

The deep sea is often viewed as a vast, dark, remote, and inhospitable environment, yet the deep ocean and seafloor are crucial to our lives through the services that they provide. Our understanding of how the deep sea functions remains limited, but when treated synoptically, a diversity of supporting, provisioning, regulating and cultural services becomes apparent. The biological pump transports carbon from the atmosphere into deep-ocean water masses that are separated over prolonged periods, reducing the impact of anthropogenic carbon release. Microbial oxidation of methane keeps another potent greenhouse gas out of the atmosphere while trapping carbon in authigenic carbonates. Nutrient regeneration by all faunal size classes provides the elements necessary for fueling surface productivity and fisheries, and microbial processes detoxify a diversity of compounds. Each of these processes occur on a very small scale, yet considering the vast area over which they occur they become important for the global functioning of the ocean. The deep sea also provides a wealth of resources, including fish stocks, enormous bioprospecting potential, and elements and energy reserves that are currently being extracted and will be increasingly important in the near future. Society benefits from the intrigue and mystery, the strange life forms, and the great unknown that has acted as a muse for inspiration and imagination since near the beginning of civilization. While many functions occur on the scale of microns to meters and timescales up to years, the derived services that result are only useful after centuries of integrated activity. This vast dark habitat, which covers the majority of the globe, harbour processes that directly impact humans in a variety of ways; however, the same traits that differentiate it from terrestrial or shallow marine systems also result in a greater need for integrated spatial and temporal understanding as it experiences increased use by society. In this manuscript we aim to provide a foundation for informed conservation and management of the deep sea by summarizing the important role of the deep sea in society.

A novel sub-seabed CO2 release experiment informing monitoring and impact assessment for geological carbon storage

Carbon capture and storage is a mitigation strategy that can be used to aid the reduction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. This process aims to capture CO2from large point-source emitters and transport it to a long-term storage site. For much of Europe, these deep storage sites are anticipated to be sited below the sea bed on continental shelves. A key operational requirement is an understanding of best practice of monitoring for potential leakage and of the environmental impact that could result from a diffusive leak from a storage complex. Here we describe a controlled CO2release experiment beneath the seabed, which overcomes the limitations of laboratory simulations and natural analogues. The complex processes involved in setting up the experimental facility and ensuring its successful operation are discussed, including site selection, permissions, communications and facility construction. The experimental design and observational strategy are reviewed with respect to scientific outcomes along with lessons learnt in order to facilitate any similar future.

Marine baseline and monitoring strategies for carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS)

The QICS controlled release experiment demonstrates that leaks of carbon dioxide (CO2) gas can be detected by monitoring acoustic, geochemical and biological parameters within a given marine system. However the natural complexity and variability of marine system responses to (artificial) leakage strongly suggests that there are no absolute indicators of leakage or impact that can unequivocally and universally be used for all potential future storage sites. We suggest a multivariate, hierarchical approach to monitoring, escalating from anomaly detection to attribution, quantification and then impact assessment, as required. Given the spatial heterogeneity of many marine ecosystems it is essential that environmental monitoring programmes are supported by a temporally (tidal, seasonal and annual) and spatially resolved baseline of data from which changes can be accurately identified. In this paper we outline and discuss the options for monitoring methodologies and identify the components of an appropriate baseline survey.

Modelling large-scale CO2 leakages in the North Sea

A three dimensional hydrodynamic model with a coupled carbonate speciation sub-model is used to simulate large additions of CO2into the North Sea, representing leakages at potential carbon sequestration sites. A range of leakage scenarios are conducted at two distinct release sites, allowing an analysis of the seasonal, inter-annual and spatial variability of impacts to the marine ecosystem. Seasonally stratified regions are shown to be more vulnerable to CO2release during the summer as the added CO2remains trapped beneath the thermocline, preventing outgasing to the atmosphere. On average, CO2 injected into the northern North Sea is shown to reside within the water column twice as long as an equivalent addition in the southern North Sea before reaching the atmosphere. Short-term leakages of 5000 tonnes CO2over a single day result in substantial acidification at the release sites (up to -1.92 pH units), with significant perturbations (greater than 0.1 pH units) generally confined to a 10 km radius. Long-term CO2leakages sustained for a year may result in extensive plumes of acidified seawater, carried by major advective pathways. Whilst such scenarios could be harmful to marine biota over confined spatial scales, continued unmitigated CO2emissions from fossil fuels are predicted to result in greater and more long-lived perturbations to the carbonate system over the next few decades.

What are the local impacts of energy systems on marine ecosystem services: a systematic map protocol

Background: Increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHG) and its impact on the climate has resulted in many international governments committing to reduce their GHG emissions. The UK, for example, has committed to reducing its carbon emissions by 80% by 2050. Suggested ways of reaching such a target are to increase dependency on offshore wind, offshore gas and nuclear. It is not clear, however, how the construction, operation and decommissioning of these energy systems will impact marine ecosystem services, i.e. the services obtained by people from the natural environment such as food provisioning, climate regulation and cultural inspiration. Research on ecosystem service impacts associated with offshore energy technologies is still in its infancy. The objective of this review is to bolster the evidence base by firstly, recording and describing the impacts of energy technologies at the marine ecosystems and human level in a consistent and transparent way; secondly, to translate these ecosystem and human impacts into ecosystem service impacts by using a framework to ensure consistency and comparability. The output of this process will be an objective synthesis of ecosystem service impacts comprehensive enough to cover different types of energy under the same analysis and to assist in informing how the provision of ecosystem services will change under different energy provisioning scenarios. Methods: Relevant studies will be sourced using publication databases and selected using a set of selection criteria including the identification of: (i) relevant subject populations such as marine and coastal species, marine habitat types and the general public; (ii) relevant exposure types including offshore wind farms, offshore oil and gas platforms and offshore structures connected with nuclear; (iii) relevant outcomes including changes in species structure and diversity; changes in benthic, demersal and pelagic habitats; and changes in cultural services. The impacts will be synthesised and described using a systematic map. To translate these findings into ecosystem service impacts, the Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (CICES) and Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) frameworks are used and a detailed description of the steps taken provided to ensure transparency and replicability.

Local perceptions of the QICS experimental offshore CO2 release: Results from social science research

This paper explores the social dimensions of an experimental release of carbon dioxide (CO2) carried out in Ardmucknish Bay, Argyll, United Kingdom. The experiment, which aimed to understand detectability and potential effects on the marine environment should there be any leakage from a CO2 storage site, provided a rare opportunity to study the social aspects of a carbon dioxide capture and storage-related event taking place in a lived-in environment. Qualitative research was carried out in the form of observation at public information events about the release, in-depth interviews with key project staff and local stakeholders/community members, and a review of online media coverage of the experiment. Focusing mainly on the observation and interview data, we discuss three key findings: the role of experience and analogues in learning about unfamiliar concepts like CO2 storage; the challenge of addressing questions of uncertainty in public engagement; and the issue of when to commence engagement and how to frame the discussion. We conclude that whilst there are clearly slippages between a small-scale experiment and full-scale CCS, the social research carried out for this project demonstrates that issues of public and stakeholder perception are as relevant for offshore CO2 storage as they are for onshore.

Optical assessment of impact and recovery of sedimentary pH profiles in ocean acidification and carbon capture and storage research

Available methods for measuring the impact of ocean acidification (OA) and leakage from carbon capture and storage (CCS) on marine sedimentary pH profiles are unsuitable for replicated experimental setups. To overcome this issue, a novel optical sensor application is presented, using off-the-shelf optode technology (MOPP). The application is validated using microprofiling, during a CCS leakage experiment, where the impact and recovery from a high CO2 plume was investigated in two types of natural marine sediment. MOPP offered user-friendliness, speed of data acquisition, robustness to sediment type, and large sediment depth range. This ensemble of characteristics overcomes many of the challenges found with other pH measuring methods, in OA and CCS research. The impact varied greatly between sediment types, depending on baseline pH variability and sediment permeability. Sedimentary pH profile recovery was quick, with profiles close to control conditions 24 h after the cessation of the leak. However, variability of pH within the finer sediment was still apparent 4 days into the recovery phase. Habitat characteristics need therefore to be considered, to truly disentangle high CO2 perturbation impacts on benthic systems. Impacts on natural communities depend not only on the pH gradient caused by perturbation, but also on other processes that outlive the perturbation, adding complexity to recovery.

Rapid response of the active microbial community to CO2 exposure from a controlled sub-seabed CO2 leak in Ardmucknish Bay (Oban, Scotland)

The response of the benthic microbial community to a controlled sub-seabed CO2 leak was assessed using quantitative PCR measurements of benthic bacterial, archaeal and cyanobacteria/chloroplast 16S rRNA genes. Samples were taken from four zones (epicentre; 25 m distant, 75 m distant and 450 m distant) during 6 time points (7 days before CO2 exposure, after 14 and 36 days of CO2 release, and 6, 20 and 90 days after the CO2 release had ended). Changes to the active community of microphytobenthos and bacteria were also assessed before, during and after CO2 release. Increases in the abundance of microbial 16S rRNA were detected after 14 days of CO2 release and at a distance of 25 m from the epicentre. CO2 related changes to the relative abundance of both major and minor bacterial taxa were detected: most notably an increase in the relative abundance of the Planctomycetacia after 14 days of CO2 release. Also evident was a decrease in the abundance of microbial 16S rRNA genes at the leak epicentre during the initial recovery phase: this coincided with the highest measurements of DIC within the sediment, but may be related to the release of potentially toxic metals at this time point.

Response of the ammonia oxidation activity of microorganisms in surface sediment to a controlled sub-seabed release of CO2

The impact of a sub-seabed CO2 leak from geological sequestration on the microbial process of ammonia oxidation was investigated in the field. Sediment samples were taken before, during and after a controlled sub-seabed CO2 leak at four zones differing in proximity to the CO2 source (epicentre, and 25m, 75m, and 450m distant). The impact of CO2 release on benthic microbial ATP levels was compared to ammonia oxidation rates and the abundance of bacterial and archaeal ammonia amoA genes and transcripts, and also to the abundance of nitrite oxidize (nirS) and anammox hydrazine oxidoreductase (hzo) genes and transcripts. The major factor influencing measurements was seasonal: only minor differences were detected at the zones impacted by CO2 (epicentre and 25m distant). This included a small increase to ammonia oxidation after 37daysof CO2 release which was linked to an increase in ammonia availability as a result of mineral dissolution. A CO2 leak on the scale used within this study (<1tonneday−1) would have very little impact to ammonia oxidation within coastal sediments. However, seawater containing 5% CO2 did reduce rates of ammonia oxidation. This was linked to the buffering capacity of the sediment, suggesting that the impact of a sub-seabed leak of stored CO2 on ammonia oxidation would be dependent on both the scale of the CO2 release and sediment type.

Impact of sub-seabed CO2 leakage on macrobenthic community structure and diversity

A sub-seabed release of carbon dioxide (CO2) was conducted to assess the potential impacts of leakage from sub-seabed geological CO2 Capture and Storage CCS) on benthic macrofauna. CO2 gas was released 12 m below the seabed for 37 days, causing significant disruption to sediment carbonate chemistry. Regular macrofauna samples were collected from within the area of active CO2 leakage (Zone 1) and in three additional reference areas, 25 m, 75 m and 450 m from the centre of the leakage (Zones 2, 3 and 4 respectively). Macrofaunal community structure changed significantly in all zones during the study period. However, only the changes in Zone 1 were driven by the CO2 leakage with the changes in reference zones appearing to reflect natural seasonal succession and stochastic weather events. The impacts in Zone 1 occurred rapidly (within a few days), increased in severity through the duration of the leak, and continued to worsen after the leak had stopped. Considerable macrofaunal recovery was seen 18 days after the CO2 gas injection had stopped. In summary, small short-term CCS leakage events are likely to cause highly localised impacts on macrofaunal communities and there is the potential for rapid recovery to occur, depending on the characteristics of the communities and habitats impacted.