Global Waves with Non-Positive Energy in General Relativity

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 35Lxx, 35Pxx, 81Uxx, 83Cxx.

Modelling markets

Decision makers in marketing are often faced with rather complicated situations in which decisions have to be made. Let us consider the problem of determining the appropriate advertising budget. A brand manager is asked to determine the optimal budget. He knows that increases in advertising may lead to increased sales, but also lead to increased costs. The advertising expenditures in period t, say 1994, may not only lead to increases in sales in t, but also to increases in t + 1 (1995) and possibly may contribute to the value of the brand for a long time period.2 Increases in sales will result in changes in profit. The decision maker is allowed to spend more advertising money if there is more profit and more sales, thus advertising spending depends on past sales and profit performance. In order to account for these and possibly other relationships it is necessary to formalise these relations. This means that the decision maker has to specify which variables influence which other variables and what the directions of causality between these variables are. To this end a model has to be formalised, data have to be collected and the formalised model has to be calibrated.

FREADMAN, AnneThe Livres-Souvenirs of Colette Genre and the Telling of Time Oxford: Legenda, August 2012200 pp., £40.00, ISBN: 978-1-906540-93-7

Full text: The title of the book gives us a major clue on the innovative approach developed by Anne Freadman in her analysis of a particular Colette corpus, the one devoted to auto-biographical writing: Les Vrilles de la vigne, Mes apprentissages, La Maison de Claudine, Sido ,L’E ́toile Vesper and Le Fanal bleu. Freadman follows the powerful lure of Rimbaldianvieilles vieilleries and its echoes with Colette’s fondness for collecting objects, people and memories. To this must be added a technical aspect, that of the study of the genre of Colette’s writing. Freadman argues that, by largely avoiding the autobiographical form, the writer achieves a new way of ‘telling time’, collecting anecdotes and detail taken from the quotidian and setting them within an all-encompassing preoccupation with time. This provides the second part of the title.The sonata form directs the sequence of the book, orchestrated into five parts,from ‘exposition’ to ‘first subject’ to‘bridge’ to ‘second subject’ to ‘recapitulation’. This has the advantage of enabling Freadman to move and progress between distinct themes—autobiography first,then alternative forms—with grace,whilst preserving within her own writing what she sees as the essence of Colette’s relationship to time in her ‘Livres-Souvenirs’, the telling of time. This‘telling of time’ is itself therefore cleverly subjected to the time constraints and freedoms of musical composition. Freadman’s ‘Exposition’ takes us through a discussion of the autobiographical genre, analysing the texts against anumber of theorists, from Lejeune to Benjamin and Ricoeur, before launching into ‘Colette and Autobiography’. It argues pertinently that Colette did not write a ‘sustained’ autobiography, even inthe most autobiographical of her writings, Mes apprentissages. Measured against Goodwin’s three sources for autobiography, confession, apologia and memoirs, Colette’s autobiographical writings appear to be at odds with all of them. Freadman then goes on in Part II of her argument, to persuasively uncover a project that rejects self-scrutiny and with no autobiographical strategy. In ‘Collecting Time’, despite claims of continuity, narrative logic and causality areabandoned in favour of a collection offragments, family stories that are built up generation after generation into familylegends. A close and fruitful analysis of Sidoleads us to a study of ‘The Art of Ending’, concentrating on L’E ́toile Vesperandle Fanal Bleu. The closing chapter gives a fascinating reading of La Naissance du jouras an exemplar of the way in which the two subjects developed in Freadman’s volume are cast together:Colette’s own working through the autobiographical genre, and her refusal to write memoirs, in favour of collecting memories, and the strategies she uses for her purpose. In ‘Recapitulation’, her concluding chapter, Freadman adroitlyen capsulates her analysis in a fetching title: ‘Fables of Time’. Indeed, the wholepremise of her book is to move away from autobiographical genre, having acknowledged the links and debt the corpus owes to it, and into a study of the multiple and fruitful ways in which Colette tells time.The rich and varied readings of thematerial, competently informed by theoretical input, together with acute sensitivity to the corpus, mark out this study as incontournable for Colette scholars.

Climate change impacts on migration and labour market

Floods, droughts and monsoons have always disturbed human settlements, but there are more settlements now and more people in the world. Therefore, if a natural disaster happens, more will suffer than ever before. Moreover, climate in the past several decades has been greatly degraded by anthropogenic activity. In some cases, the chain of causality of human influence on the climate is direct and unambiguous (e.g. the effects of irrigation on local humidity), though there are instances where it is less clear. Presently, the scientific consensus (IPCC, 2007) on climate change is that human activity is very likely the cause for the rapid increase of global average temperatures, more generally known as global warming.

A hazai védekezőtől a regionális „támadóig” – az OTP nemzetköziesedésének időbeni alakulása (From the domestic defender to the regional striker – a timebased process of the OTP Bank’s internationalization)

A vállalatok nemzetköziesedése egy széles körben vizsgált szakterület, különösképpen olyan vállalatok esetében (az ún. tradicionális multik), amelyek hagyományosan nemzetközi orientációjú országokból (Triád) származnak. A nemzetközi piacokon viszonylag újnak számító közép-kelet-európai cégek terjeszkedése az üzleti kontextus változásával párhuzamosan zajlott. Következésképpen ahhoz, hogy megértsük a nemzetköziesedés időben zajló folyamatát, a vállalatok nemzetközi evolúcióját a kontextussal összefüggésben kell vizsgálni. A vállalatok nemzetköziesedésének legelterjedtebb kutatási módszerei a nagymintás keresztmetszeti vizsgálatok, amelyek nem adnak lehetőséget a nemzetközi fejlődés időbeni alakulásának megfigyelésére és a mintázat mögött rejlő valós okok feltárására. A jelen tanulmány egy longitudinális kutatási modell mentén vizsgálja egy nem tradicionális multi, a hazai OTP nemzetköziesedésének időbeni alakulását, feltárva a nemzetközivé válás folyamata során kialakuló komplex kapcsolatrendszert. _______ The purpose of the present paper is to describe the internationalisation process of a non-traditional multinational, the Hungarian OTP Bank and to understand the dynamic linkages between the spatial and temporal context and the content of firm internationalization using a phenomenon oriented longitudinal research design. The paper contributes to the time-based processual view of firm internationalization arguing that in order to understand firm internationalization along time one should observe organizations and their contextual environments as complex interacting processes. By analysing the interaction between the multi-level processes that shape internationalization, one can explore the reasons behind the dynamic profile of firm internationalization. The paper applies an interpretative approach focusing on local causality.

Causal attributions for success or failure by passing and failing students in College Algebra

Success in mathematics has been identified as a predictor of baccalaureate degree completion. Within the coursework of college mathematics, College Algebra has been identified as a high-risk course due to its low success rates. ^ Research in the field of attribution theory and academic achievement suggests a relationship between a student's attributional style and achievement. Theorists and researchers contend that attributions influence individual reactions to success and failure. They also report that individuals use attributions to explain and justify their performance. Studies in mathematics education identify attribution theory as the theoretical orientation most suited to explain academic performance in mathematics. This study focused on the relationship among a high risk course, low success rates, and attribution by examining the difference in the attributions passing and failing students gave for their performance in College Algebra. ^ The methods for the study included a pilot administration of the Causal Dimension Scale (CDSII) which was used to conduct reliability and principal component analyses. Then, students (n = 410) self-reported their performance on an in-class test and attributed their performance along the dimensions of locus of causality, stability, personal controllability, and external controllability. They also provided open-ended attribution statements to explain the cause of their performance. The quantitative data compared the passing and failing groups and their attributions for performance on a test using One-Way ANOVA and Pearson chi square procedures. The open-ended attribution statements were coded in relation to ability, effort, task difficulty, and luck and compared using a Pearson chi square procedure. ^ The results of the quantitative data comparing passing and failing groups and their attributions along the dimensions measured by the CDSII indicated statistical significance in locus of causality, stability, and personal controllability. The results comparing the open-ended attribution statements indicated statistical significance in the categories of effort and task difficulty. ^

Enigmatic faunal declines at La Selva, Costa Rica: Patterns and processes in a collapsing neotropical herpetofauna

Amphibian populations are declining even in pristine areas in many parts of the world, and in the Neotropics most such enigmatic amphibian declines have occurred in mid- to high-elevation sites. However, amphibian populations have also declined at La Selva Biological Station in the lowlands of Costa Rica, and similar declines in populations of lizards have occurred at the site as well. To set the stage for describing amphibian declines at La Selva, I thoroughly review knowledge of amphibian decline and amphibian conservation in Central America: I describe general patterns in biodiversity, evaluate major patterns in and ecological correlates of threat status, review trends in basic and applied conservation literature, and recommend directions for future research. I then synthesize data on population densities of amphibians, as well as ecologically similar reptiles, over a 35-year periods using quantitative datasets from a range of studies. This synthesis identifies assemblage-wide declines of approximately 75% for both amphibians and reptiles between 1970 and 2005. Because these declines defy patterns most commonly reported in the Neotropics, it is difficult to assess causality evoking known processes associated with enigmatic decline events. I conduct a 12-month pathogen surveillance program to evaluate infection of frogs by the amphibian chytrid fungus, an emerging pathogen linked to decline events worldwide Although lowland forests are generally believed to be too warm for presence or adverse population effects of chytridiomycosis, I present evidence for seasonal patterns in infection prevalence with highest prevalence in the coolest parts of the year. Finally, I conducted a 16-month field experiment to explore the role of changes to dynamics of leaf litter, a critical resource for both frogs and lizards. Population responses by frogs and lizards indicate that litter regulates population densities of frogs and lizards, particularly those species with the highest decline rate. My work illustrates that sites that are assumed to be pristine are likely impacted by a variety of novel stressors, and that even fauna within protected areas may be suffering unexpected declines.

Industrial fault detection and diagnosis using Bayesian belief network

Rapid development in industry have contributed to more complex systems that are prone to failure. In applications where the presence of faults may lead to premature failure, fault detection and diagnostics tools are often implemented. The goal of this research is to improve the diagnostic ability of existing FDD methods. Kernel Principal Component Analysis has good fault detection capability, however it can only detect the fault and identify few variables that have contribution on occurrence of fault and thus not precise in diagnosing. Hence, KPCA was used to detect abnormal events and the most contributed variables were taken out for more analysis in diagnosis phase. The diagnosis phase was done in both qualitative and quantitative manner. In qualitative mode, a networked-base causality analysis method was developed to show the causal effect between the most contributing variables in occurrence of the fault. In order to have more quantitative diagnosis, a Bayesian network was constructed to analyze the problem in probabilistic perspective.

O problema mente-corpo na psicologia fenomenológica de Edith Stein : implicações para uma fundamentação da ciência psicológica

Psychology is a relatively new scientific branch and still lacks consistent methodological foundation to support its investigations. Given its immaturity, this science finds difficulties to delimit its ontological status, which spawnes several epistemological and methodological misconceptions. Given this, Psychology failed to demarcate precisely its object of study, leading, thus, the emergence of numerous conceptions about the psychic, which resulted in the fragmentation of this science. In its constitution, psychological science inherited a complex philosophical problem: the mind-body issue. Therefore, to define their status, Psychology must still face this problem, seeking to elucidate what is the mind, the body and how they relate. In light of the importance of this issue to a strict demarcation of psychological object, it was sought in this research, to investigate the mind-body problem in the Phenomenological Psychology of Edith Stein (1891-1942), phenomenologist philosopher who undertook efforts for a foundation of Psychology. For that, the discussion was subsidized from the contributions of the Philosophy of Mind and the support of the phenomenological method to the mind-body problem. From there, by a qualitative bibliographical methodology, it sought to examine the problem of research through the analysis of some philosophical-psychological philosopher's works, named: "Psychic Causality” (Kausalität Psychische, 1922) and “Introduction to Philosophy" (Einführung in die Philosophie, 1920). For this investigation, it was made, without prejudice to the discussion, a terminological equivalence between the terms mind and psyche, as the philosopher used the latter to refer to the object of Psychology. It sought to examine, therefore, how Stein conceived the psyche, the body and the relationship between them. Although it wasn't the focus of the investigation, it also took into account the spiritual dimension, as the philosopher conceived the human person as consisting of three dimensions: body, psyche and spirit. Given this, Stein highlighted the causal mechanism of the psyche, which is based on the variations of the vital force that emerges from the vital sphere. In relation to the corporeal dimension, the philosopher, following the analysis of Edmund Husserl (1859-1938), highlighted the dual aspect of the body, because it is at the same time something material (Körper) and also a linving body (Leib). On the face of it, it is understood that the psyche and the body are closely connected, so that it constitutes a dual-unit which is manifested in the Leib. This understanding of the problem psyche-mind/body provides a rich analysis of this issue, enabling the overcoming of some inconsistencies of the monistic and dualistic positions. Given this, it allows a strict elucidation of the Psychology object, contributing to the foundation of this science.

Realized Matrix-Exponential Stochastic Volatility with Asymmetry, Long Memory and Spillovers

The paper develops a novel realized matrix-exponential stochastic volatility model of multivariate returns and realized covariances that incorporates asymmetry and long memory (hereafter the RMESV-ALM model). The matrix exponential transformation guarantees the positivedefiniteness of the dynamic covariance matrix. The contribution of the paper ties in with Robert Basmann’s seminal work in terms of the estimation of highly non-linear model specifications (“Causality tests and observationally equivalent representations of econometric models”, Journal of Econometrics, 1988, 39(1-2), 69–104), especially for developing tests for leverage and spillover effects in the covariance dynamics. Efficient importance sampling is used to maximize the likelihood function of RMESV-ALM, and the finite sample properties of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of the parameters are analysed. Using high frequency data for three US financial assets, the new model is estimated and evaluated. The forecasting performance of the new model is compared with a novel dynamic realized matrix-exponential conditional covariance model. The volatility and co-volatility spillovers are examined via the news impact curves and the impulse response functions from returns to volatility and co-volatility.

Validation prédictive de la Statique 99 auprès d'un échantillon d'agresseurs sexuels ayant été incarcérés dans un établissement carcéral fédéral

Mémoire numérisé par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

Hope in the Middle East:malleability beliefs, hope, and the willingness to compromise for peace

The importance of hope has long been asserted in the field of conflict resolution. However, little is actually known about either how to induce hope or what effects hope has on conciliatory attitudes. In the current research, we tested whether (1) hope is based upon beliefs regarding conflict malleability and (2) hope predicts support for concessions for peace. Study 1, a correlational study conducted among Israeli Jews, revealed that malleability beliefs regarding conflicts in general are associated with hope regarding the Israeli–Palestinian conflict as well as with support for concessions. In Study 2, we established causality using an experimental manipulation of beliefs regarding conflicts being malleable (vs. fixed). Findings have both theoretical and practical implications regarding inducing hope in intractable conflicts, thus promoting the attitudes so critical for peacemaking.

Cervical cancer precursors and hormonal contraceptive use in HIV-positive women: application of a causal model and semi-parametric estimation methods.

OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate the application of causal inference methods to observational data in the obstetrics and gynecology field, particularly causal modeling and semi-parametric estimation. BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive women are at increased risk for cervical cancer and its treatable precursors. Determining whether potential risk factors such as hormonal contraception are true causes is critical for informing public health strategies as longevity increases among HIV-positive women in developing countries. METHODS: We developed a causal model of the factors related to combined oral contraceptive (COC) use and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or greater (CIN2+) and modified the model to fit the observed data, drawn from women in a cervical cancer screening program at HIV clinics in Kenya. Assumptions required for substantiation of a causal relationship were assessed. We estimated the population-level association using semi-parametric methods: g-computation, inverse probability of treatment weighting, and targeted maximum likelihood estimation. RESULTS: We identified 2 plausible causal paths from COC use to CIN2+: via HPV infection and via increased disease progression. Study data enabled estimation of the latter only with strong assumptions of no unmeasured confounding. Of 2,519 women under 50 screened per protocol, 219 (8.7%) were diagnosed with CIN2+. Marginal modeling suggested a 2.9% (95% confidence interval 0.1%, 6.9%) increase in prevalence of CIN2+ if all women under 50 were exposed to COC; the significance of this association was sensitive to method of estimation and exposure misclassification. CONCLUSION: Use of causal modeling enabled clear representation of the causal relationship of interest and the assumptions required to estimate that relationship from the observed data. Semi-parametric estimation methods provided flexibility and reduced reliance on correct model form. Although selected results suggest an increased prevalence of CIN2+ associated with COC, evidence is insufficient to conclude causality. Priority areas for future studies to better satisfy causal criteria are identified.

Food Swamps, Obesity & Health Zoning Restrictions on Fast Food Restaurants

Protecting public health is the most legitimate use of zoning, and yet there is minimal progress in applying it to the obesity problem. Zoning could potentially be used to address both unhealthy and healthy food retailers, but lack of evidence regarding the impact of zoning and public opinion on zoning changes are barriers to implementing zoning restrictions on fast food on a larger scale. My dissertation addresses these gaps in our understanding of health zoning as a policy option for altering built, food environments.

Chapter 1 examines the relationship between food swamps and obesity and whether spatial mapping might be useful in identifying priority geographic areas for zoning interventions. I employ an instrumental variables (IV) strategy to correct for the endogeneity problems associated with food environments, namely that individuals may self-select into certain neighborhoods and may consider food availability in their decision process. I utilize highway exits as a source of exogenous variation .Using secondary data from the USDA Food Environment Atlas, ordinary least squares (OLS) and IV regression models were employed to analyze cross-sectional associations between local food environments and the prevalence of obesity. I find even after controlling for food desert effects, food swamps have a positive, statistically significant effect on adult obesity rates.

Chapter 2 applies theories of message framing and prospect theory to the emerging discussion around health zoning policies targeting food environments and to explore public opinion toward a list of potential zoning restrictions on fast-food restaurants (beyond moratoriums on new establishments). In order to explore causality, I employ an online survey experiment manipulating exposure to vignettes with different message frames about health zoning restrictions with two national samples of adult Americans age 18 and over (N1=2,768 and N2=3,236). The second sample oversamples Black Americans (N=1,000) and individuals with high school as their highest level of education. Respondents were randomly assigned to one of six conditions where they were primed with different message frames about the benefits of zoning restrictions on fast food retailers. Participants were then asked to indicate their support for six zoning policies on a Likert scale. Subjects also answered questions about their food store access, eating behaviors, health status and perceptions of food stores by type.

I find that a message frame about Nutrition and increasing Equity in the food system was particularly effective at increasing support for health zoning policies targeting fast food outlets across policy categories (Conditional, Youth-related, Performance and Incentive) and across racial groups. This finding is consistent with an influential environmental justice scholar’s description of “injustice frames” as effective in mobilizing supporters around environmental issues (Taylor 2000). I extend this rationale to food environment obesity prevention efforts and identify Nutrition combined with Equity frames as an arguably universal campaign strategy for bolstering public support of zoning restrictions on fast food retailers.

Bridging my findings from both Chapters 1 and 2, using food swamps as a spatial metaphor may work to identify priority areas for policy intervention, but only if there is an equitable distribution of resources and mobilization efforts to improve consumer food environments. If the structural forces which ration access to land-use planning persist (arguably including the media as gatekeepers to information and producers of message frames) disparities in obesity are likely to widen.