The 'obesity paradox' in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Poor nutritional status in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with increased mortality independently of disease-severity (Collins et al).1 Epidemiological studies have suggested a protective role of obesity against mortality in COPD (Vestbo et al)2 which is contrary to data from the general population where obesity is associated with decreased life expectancy. This relationship has been referred to as the ‘obesity paradox’ and has been demonstrated in a number of chronic wasting conditions (Kalantar-Zadeh et al).3 This study investigated the existence of the obesity paradox in outpatients with COPD by examining the effect of body mass index (BMI) on 1-year healthcare use and clinical outcome in terms of hospital admission rates, length of hospital stay, outpatient appointments and mortality. BMI was assessed in 424 outpatients with COPD, with measurements performed by specialist respiratory nurses during outpatient clinics. 1-year healthcare use was retrospectively collected from the date of BMI measurement. Abstract S163 Table 1 Patients classified as overweight (25.0–29.9 kg/m2) or obese (>30 kg/m2) experienced significantly fewer emergency hospital admissions, as well as a reduced length of hospital stay, in comparison to normal weight (20.0–24.9 kg/m2) or underweight (<20 kg/m2) outpatients. There was a significant negative trend between BMI classification and mortality. This study supports the existence of the ‘obesity paradox’ in COPD, not only in relation to reduced 1 year mortality rates but also in terms of reduced emergency hospital admissions and reduced length of hospital stay.

P147 Deprivation is associated with increased healthcare utilisation in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Deprivation assessed using the index of multiple deprivation (IMD) has been shown to be an independent risk factor for 1-year mortality in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; COPD (Collins et al, 2010). IMD combines a number of economic and social issues (eg, health, education, employment) into one overall deprivation score, the higher the score the higher an individual's deprivation. Whilst malnutrition in COPD has been linked to increased healthcare use it is not clear if deprivation is also independently associated. This study aimed to investigate the influence of deprivation on 1-year healthcare utilisation in outpatients with COPD. IMD was established in 424 outpatients with COPD according to the geographical location for each patient's address (postcode) and related to their healthcare use in the year post-date screened (Nobel et al, 2008). Patients were routinely screened in outpatient clinics for malnutrition using the ‘Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool’, ‘MUST’ (Elia 2003); mean age 73 (SD 9.9) years; body mass index 25.8 (SD 6.3) kg/m2 with healthcare use collected 1 year from screening (Abstract P147 Table 1). Deprivation assessed using IMD (mean 15.9; SD 11.1) was found to be a significant predictor for the frequency and duration of emergency hospital admissions as well as the duration of elective hospital admission. Deprivation was also linked to reduced secondary care outpatient appointment attendance but not an increase in failure to attend and deprivation was not associated with increased disease severity, as classified by the GOLD criteria (p=0.580). COPD outpatients residing in more deprived areas experience increased hospitalisation rates but decreased outpatient appointment attendance. The underlying reason behind this disparity in healthcare use requires further investigation.

Design of flight avoidance manoeuvre alphabets for mixed centralised-decentralised separation management

This paper investigates a mixed centralised-decentralised air traffic separation management system, which combines the best features of the centralised and decentralised systems whilst ensuring the reliability of the air traffic management system during degraded conditions. To overcome communication band limits, we propose a mixed separation manager on the basis of a robust decision (or min-max) problem that is posed on a reduced set of admissible flight avoidance manoeuvres (or a FAM alphabet). We also present a design method for selecting an appropriate FAM alphabet for use in the mixed separation management system. Simulation studies are presented to illustrate the benefits of our proposed FAM alphabet based mixed separation manager.

Fusion of morphological images for airborne target detection

Several track-before-detection approaches for image based aircraft detection have recently been examined in an important automated aircraft collision detection application. A particularly popular approach is a two stage processing paradigm which involves: a morphological spatial filter stage (which aims to emphasize the visual characteristics of targets) followed by a temporal or track filter stage (which aims to emphasize the temporal characteristics of targets). In this paper, we proposed new spot detection techniques for this two stage processing paradigm that fuse together raw and morphological images or fuse together various different morphological images (we call these approaches morphological reinforcement). On the basis of flight test data, the proposed morphological reinforcement operations are shown to offer superior signal to-noise characteristics when compared to standard spatial filter options (such as the close-minus-open and adaptive contour morphological operations). However, system operation characterised curves, which examine detection verses false alarm characteristics after both processing stages, illustrate that system performance is very data dependent.

HMM triangle relative entropy concepts in sequential change detection applied to vision-based dim target manoeuvre detection

The quick detection of abrupt (unknown) parameter changes in an observed hidden Markov model (HMM) is important in several applications. Motivated by the recent application of relative entropy concepts in the robust sequential change detection problem (and the related model selection problem), this paper proposes a sequential unknown change detection algorithm based on a relative entropy based HMM parameter estimator. Our proposed approach is able to overcome the lack of knowledge of post-change parameters, and is illustrated to have similar performance to the popular cumulative sum (CUSUM) algorithm (which requires knowledge of the post-change parameter values) when examined, on both simulated and real data, in a vision-based aircraft manoeuvre detection problem.

Drivers’ inability to assess their level of alertness on monotonous highways

Decline of alertness constitutes a normal physiological phenomenon but could be aggravated when drivers operate in monotonous environments, even in rested individuals. Driving performance is impaired and this increases crash risk due to inattention. This paper aims to show that road characteristics - namely road design (road geometry) and road side variability (signage and buildings) – influence subjective assessment of alertness by drivers. This study used a driving simulator to investigate the drivers’ ability to subjectively detect periods of time when their alertness is importantly reduced by varying road geometry and road environment. Driver’s EEG activity is recorded as a reference to evaluate objectively driver's alertness and is compared to self-reported alertness by participants. Twenty-five participants drove on four different scenarios (varying road design and road environment monotony) for forty minutes. It was observed that participants were significantly more accurate in their assessment before the driving task as compared to after (90% versus 60%). Errors in assessment were largely underestimations of their real alertness rather than over-estimations. The ability to detect low alertness as assessed with an EEG was highly dependent on the road monotony. Scenarios with low roadside variability resulted in high overestimation of the real alertness, which was not observed on monotonous road design. The findings have consequences for road safety and suggest that countermeasures to lapses of alertness cannot rely solely on self-assessment from drivers and road design should reduce environments with low variability.

Relative entropy rate based model selection for linear hybrid system filters of uncertain nonlinear systems

Hybrid system representations have been exploited in a number of challenging modelling situations, including situations where the original nonlinear dynamics are too complex (or too imprecisely known) to be directly filtered. Unfortunately, the question of how to best design suitable hybrid system models has not yet been fully addressed, particularly in the situations involving model uncertainty. This paper proposes a novel joint state-measurement relative entropy rate based approach for design of hybrid system filters in the presence of (parameterised) model uncertainty. We also present a design approach suitable for suboptimal hybrid system filters. The benefits of our proposed approaches are illustrated through design examples and simulation studies.

Nutritional support in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of nutritional support in the management of malnutrition in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is controversial. Previous meta-analyses, based on only cross-sectional analysis at the end of intervention trials, found no evidence of improved outcomes. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to conduct a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to clarify the efficacy of nutritional support in improving intake, anthropometric measures, and grip strength in stable COPD. DESIGN: Literature databases were searched to identify RCTs comparing nutritional support with controls in stable COPD. RESULTS: Thirteen RCTs (n = 439) of nutritional support [dietary advice (1 RCT), oral nutritional supplements (ONS; 11 RCTs), and enteral tube feeding (1 RCT)] with a control comparison were identified. An analysis of the changes induced by nutritional support and those obtained only at the end of the intervention showed significantly greater increases in mean total protein and energy intakes with nutritional support of 14.8 g and 236 kcal daily. Meta-analyses also showed greater mean (±SE) improvements in favor of nutritional support for body weight (1.94 ± 0.26 kg, P < 0.001; 11 studies, n = 308) and grip strength (5.3%, P < 0.050; 4 studies, n = 156), which was not shown by ANOVA at the end of the intervention, largely because of bias associated with baseline imbalance between groups. CONCLUSION: This systematic review and meta-analysis showed that nutritional support, mainly in the form of ONS, improves total intake, anthropometric measures, and grip strength in COPD. These results contrast with the results of previous analyses that were based on only cross-sectional measures at the end of intervention trials.

The influence of smoking status on malnutrition risk and 1-year mortality in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Introduction:  Smoking status in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been associated with a low body mass index (BMI) and reduced mid-arm muscle circumference (Cochrane & Afolabi, 2004). Individuals with COPD identified as malnourished have also been found to be twice as likely to die within 1 year compared to non-malnourished patients (Collins et al., 2010). Although malnutrition is both preventable and treatable, it is not clear what influence current smoking status, another modifiable risk factor, has on malnutrition risk. The current study aimed to establish the influence of smoking status on malnutrition risk and 1-year mortality in outpatients with COPD. Methods:  A prospective nutritional screening survey was carried out between July 2008 and May 2009 at a large teaching hospital (Southampton General Hospital) and a smaller community hospital within Hampshire (Lymington New Forest Hospital). In total, 424 outpatients with a diagnosis of COPD were routinely screened using the ‘Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool’, ‘MUST’ (Elia, 2003); 222 males, 202 females; mean (SD) age 73 (9.9) years; mean (SD) BMI 25.9 (6.4) kg m−2. Smoking status on the date of screening was obtained for 401 of the outpatients. Severity of COPD was assessed using the GOLD criteria, and social deprivation determined using the Index of Multiple Deprivation (Nobel et al., 2008). Results:  The overall prevalence of malnutrition (medium + high risk) was 22%, with 32% of current smokers at risk (who accounted for 19% of the total COPD population). In comparison, 19% of nonsmokers and ex-smokers were likely to be malnourished [odds ratio, 1.965; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.133–3.394; P = 0.015]. Smoking status remained an independent risk factor for malnutrition even after adjustment for age, social deprivation and disease-severity (odds ratio, 2.048; 95% CI, 1.085–3.866; P = 0.027) using binary logistic regression. After adjusting for age, disease severity, social deprivation, smoking status, malnutrition remained a significant predictor of 1-year mortality [odds ratio (medium + high risk versus low risk), 2.161; 95% CI, 1.021–4.573; P = 0.044], whereas smoking status did not (odds ratio for smokers versus ex-smokers + nonsmokers was 1.968; 95% CI, 0.788–4.913; P = 0.147). Discussion:  This study highlights the potential importance of combined nutritional support and smoking cessation in order to treat malnutrition. The close association between smoking status and malnutrition risk in COPD suggests that smoking is an important consideration in the nutritional management of malnourished COPD outpatients. Conclusions:  Smoking status in COPD outpatients is a significant independent risk factor for malnutrition and a weaker (nonsignificant) predictor of 1-year mortality. Malnutrition significantly predicted 1 year mortality. References:  Cochrane, W.J. & Afolabi, O.A. (2004) Investigation into the nutritional status, dietary intake and smoking habits of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. J. Hum. Nutr. Diet.17, 3–11. Collins, P.F., Stratton, R.J., Kurukulaaratchym R., Warwick, H. Cawood, A.L. & Elia, M. (2010) ‘MUST’ predicts 1-year survival in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Clin. Nutr.5, 17. Elia, M. (Ed) (2003) The ‘MUST’ Report. BAPEN. http://www.bapen.org.uk (accessed on March 30 2011). Nobel, M., McLennan, D., Wilkinson, K., Whitworth, A. & Barnes, H. (2008) The English Indices of Deprivation 2007. http://www.communities.gov.uk (accessed on March 30 2011).

Deprivation is an independent predictor of 1-year mortality in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Deprivation is linked to increased incidence in a number of chronic diseases but its relationship to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is uncertain despite suggestions that the socioeconomic gradient seen in COPD is as great, if not greater, than any other disease (Prescott and Vestbo).1 There is also a need to take into account the confounding effects of malnutrition which have been shown to be independently linked to increased mortality (Collins et al).2 The current study investigated the influence of social deprivation on 1-year survival rates in COPD outpatients, independently of malnutrition. 424 outpatients with COPD were routinely screened for malnutrition risk using the ‘Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool’; ‘MUST’ (Elia),3 between July and May 2009; 222 males and 202 females; mean age 73 (SD 9.9) years; body mass index 25.8 (SD 6.3) kg/m2. Each individual's deprivation was calculated using the index of multiple deprivation (IMD) which was established according to the geographical location of each patient's address (postcode). IMD includes a number of indicators covering economic, housing and social issues (eg, health, education and employment) into a single deprivation score (Nobel et al).4 The lower the IMD score, the lower an individual's deprivation. The IMD was assigned to each outpatient at the time of screening and related to1-year mortality from the date screened. Outpatients who died within 1-year of screening were significantly more likely to reside within a deprived postcode (IMD 19.7±SD 13.1 vs 15.4±SD 10.7; p=0.023, OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.06) than those that did not die. Deprivation remained a significant independent risk factor for 1-year mortality even when adjusted for malnutrition as well as age, gender and disease severity (binary logistic regression; p=0.008, OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.07). Deprivation was not associated with disease-severity (p=0.906) or body mass index, kg/m2 (p=0.921) using ANOVA. This is the first study to show that deprivation, assessed using IMD, is associated with increased 1-year mortality in outpatients with COPD independently of malnutrition, age and disease severity. Deprivation should be considered in the targeted management of these patients.