Statistical evaluation of the fixed concentration procedure for acute inhalation toxicity assessment

The conventional method for the assessment of acute inhalation toxicity (OECD Test Guideline 403, 1981) uses death of animals as an endpoint to identify the median lethal concentration (LC50). A new OECD Testing Guideline called the Fixed Concentration Procedure (FCP) is being prepared to provide an alternative to Test Guideline 403. Unlike Test Guideline 403, the FCP does not provide a point estimate of the LC50, but aims to identify an airborne exposure level that causes clear signs of nonlethal toxicity. This is then used to assign classification according to the new Globally Harmonized System of Classification and Labelling scheme (GHS). The FCP has been validated using statistical simulation rather than byin vivo testing. The statistical simulation approach predicts the GHS classification outcome and the numbers of deaths and animals used in the test for imaginary substances with a range of LC50 values and dose response curve slopes. This paper describes the FCP and reports the results from the statistical simulation study assessing its properties. It is shown that the procedure will be completed with considerably less death and suffering than Test Guideline 403, and will classify substances either in the same or a more stringent GHS class than that assigned on the basis of the LC50 value.

A statistical evaluation of the fixed dose procedure

The fixed-dose procedure (FDP) was introduced as OECD Test Guideline 420 in 1992, as an alternative to the conventional median lethal dose (LD50) test for the assessment of acute oral toxicity (OECD Test Guideline 401). The FDP uses fewer animals and causes less suffering than the conventional test, while providing information on the acute toxicity to allow substances to be ranked according to the EU hazard classification system. Recently the FDP has been revised, with the aim of providing further reductions and refinements, and classification according to the criteria of the Globally Harmonized Hazard Classification and Labelling scheme (GHS). This paper describes the revised FDP and analyses its properties, as determined by a statistical modelling approach. The analysis shows that the revised FDP classifies substances for acute oral toxicity generally in the same, or a more stringent, hazard class as that based on the LD50 value, according to either the GHS or the EU classification scheme. The likelihood of achieving the same classification is greatest for substances with a steep dose-response curve and median toxic dose (TD50) close to the LD50. The revised FDP usually requires five or six animals with two or fewer dying as a result of treatment in most cases.

EOQ, JIT and fixed costs in the Ready-mixed concrete industry

The successful implementation of just-in-time (JIT) purchasing policy in many industries has prompted many companies that still use the economic order quantity (EOQ) purchasing policy to ponder if they should switch to the JIT purchasing policy. Despite existing studies that directly compare the costs between the EOQ and JIT purchasing systems, this decision is, however, still difficult to be made, especially when price discount has to be considered. JIT purchasing may not always be successful even though plants that adopted JIT operations have experienced or can take advantage of physical space reduction. Hence, the objective of this study is to expand on a classical EOQ with a price discount model to derive the EOQ–JIT cost indifference point. The objective was tested and achieved through a survey and case study conducted in the ready-mixed concrete industry in Singapore.

Modelling fixed plant and algal dynamics in rivers: an application to the River Frome

The development of eutrophication in river systems is poorly understood given the complex relationship between fixed plants, algae, hydrodynamics, water chemistry and solar radiation. However there is a pressing need to understand the relationship between the ecological status of rivers and the controlling environmental factors to help the reasoned implementation of the Water Framework Directive and Catchment Sensitive Farming in the UK. This research aims to create a dynamic, process-based, mathematical in-stream model to simulate the growth and competition of different vegetation types (macrophytes, phytoplankton and benthic algae) in rivers. The model, applied to the River Frome (Dorset, UK), captured well the seasonality of simulated vegetation types (suspended algae, macrophytes, epiphytes, sediment biofilm). Macrophyte results showed that local knowledge is important for explaining unusual changes in biomass. Fixed algae simulations indicated the need for the more detailed representation of various herbivorous grazer groups, however this would increase the model complexity, the number of model parameters and the required observation data to better define the model. The model results also highlighted that simulating only phytoplankton is insufficient in river systems, because the majority of the suspended algae have benthic origin in short retention time rivers. Therefore, there is a need for modelling tools that link the benthic and free-floating habitats.

Chatterbox challenge as a test-bed for synthetic emotions

Chatterbox Challenge is an annual web-based contest for artificial conversational systems, ACE. The 2010 instantiation was the tenth consecutive contest held between March and June in the 60th year following the publication of Alan Turing’s influential disquisition ‘computing machinery and intelligence’. Loosely based on Turing’s viva voca interrogator-hidden witness imitation game, a thought experiment to ascertain a machine’s capacity to respond satisfactorily to unrestricted questions, the contest provides a platform for technology comparison and evaluation. This paper provides an insight into emotion content in the entries since the 2005 Chatterbox Challenge. The authors find that synthetic textual systems, none of which are backed by academic or industry funding, are, on the whole and more than half a century since Weizenbaum’s natural language understanding experiment, little further than Eliza in terms of expressing emotion in dialogue. This may be a failure on the part of the academic AI community for ignoring the Turing test as an engineering challenge.

A comparative study of multilayered and single layered neural network based predictive controllers

The authors compare the performance of two types of controllers one based on the multilayered network and the other based on the single layered CMAC network (cerebellar model articulator controller). The neurons (information processing units) in the multi-layered network use Gaussian activation functions. The control scheme which is considered is a predictive control algorithm, along the lines used by Willis et al. (1991), Kambhampati and Warwick (1991). The process selected as a test bed is a continuous stirred tank reactor. The reaction taking place is an irreversible exothermic reaction in a constant volume reactor cooled by a single coolant stream. This reactor is a simplified version of the first tank in the two tank system given by Henson and Seborg (1989).

The type and frequency of interactions that occur between staff and children outside in Early Years Foundation Stage settings during a fixed playtime period when there are tricycles available

This study reports on an investigation into adult and child interactions observed in the outdoor play environment in four Local Authority early years foundation stage settings in England. In this instance the common two features across the settings were the presence of tricycles and a timetabled outdoor play period. In total, across the four schools, there were 204 children. The study aimed to gain an understanding of the nature of the dialogues between staff and children, that is, the types of exchange that occurred when either the child approached an adult or the adult approached a child. The most frequent type of utterance was also analysed. The study concludes that adults in these settings spoke more than children and the greatest type of utterance was that of the adult about domestic matters. When the child initiated the conversation there were more extended child utterances than domestic utterances. This may suggest that children wish to be involved in conversations of depth and meaning and that staff need to become aware of how to develop this conversational language with children.

The role of phase separation and feed cycle length in leach beds coupled to methanogenic reactors for digestion of a solid substrate (Part 1): Optimisation of reactors’ performance

A two-phase system composed by a leach bed and a methanogenic reactor was modified for the first time to improve volumetric substrate degradation and methane yields from a complex substrate (maize; Zea mays). The system, which was operated for consecutive feed cycles of different durations for 120 days, was highly flexible and its performance improved by altering operational conditions. Daily substrate degradation was higher the shorter the feed cycle, reaching 8.5 g TSdestroyed d�1 (7-day feed cycle) but the overall substrate degradation was higher by up to 55% when longer feed cycles (14 and 28 days) were applied. The same occurred with volumetric methane yields, reaching 0.839 m3 (m3)�1 d�1. The system performed better than others on specific methane yields, reaching 0.434 m3 kg�1 TSadded, in the 14-day and 28-day systems. The UASB and AF designs performed similarly as second stage reactors on methane yields, SCOD and VFA removal efficiencies.

Suspended and bed load sediment transport dynamics in two lowland UK streams—storm integrated monitoring

A great deal of work recently has focused on suspended and bedload sediment transport, driven primarily by interest in contaminant transfer. However, uncertainties regarding the role of storm events, macrophyte beds and interactions between the two phases of sediment still exist. This paper compares two study sites within the same catchment whose geology varies significantly. The differences in hydrology, suspended sediment (SS) transport and bed load transport that this causes are examined. In addition, a method to predict the mobilization of different size fractions of sediment during given flows is investigated using critical entrainment thresholds.

Bayesian estimation of the double hurdle model in the presence of fixed costs

We present a model of market participation in which the presence of non-negligible fixed costs leads to random censoring of the traditional double-hurdle model. Fixed costs arise when household resources must be devoted a priori to the decision to participate in the market. These costs, usually of time, are manifested in non-negligible minimum-efficient supplies and supply correspondence that requires modification of the traditional Tobit regression. The costs also complicate econometric estimation of household behavior. These complications are overcome by application of the Gibbs sampler. The algorithm thus derived provides robust estimates of the fixed-costs, double-hurdle model. The model and procedures are demonstrated in an application to milk market participation in the Ethiopian highlands.

Robust evaluation of fixed-event forecast rationality

In this paper we introduce a new testing procedure for evaluating the rationality of fixed-event forecasts based on a pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator. The procedure is designed to be robust to departures in the normality assumption. A model is introduced to show that such departures are likely when forecasters experience a credibility loss when they make large changes to their forecasts. The test is illustrated using monthly fixed-event forecasts produced by four UK institutions. Use of the robust test leads to the conclusion that certain forecasts are rational while use of the Gaussian-based test implies that certain forecasts are irrational. The difference in the results is due to the nature of the underlying data. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.