Do high levels of physical activity favor favorable cardiovascular risk factors regardless of sleep?

This study suggests that physical activity is a more important lifestyle modification than sleep to improve cardiovascular risk factors in postmenopausal women; however both lifestyle modifications, including, ensuring sufficient sleep quality and duration and increasing physical activity should be strongly encouraged by menopause practitioners in postmenopausal women care.

Lifestyle risk factor modification in midlife women with type 2 diabetes : theoretical modelling of perceived barriers

Objective: The aim of this paper is to propose a ‘Perceived barriers and lifestyle risk factor modification model’ that could be incorporated into existing frameworks for diabetes education to enhance lifestyle risk factor education in women. Setting: Diabetes education, community health. Primary argument: ‘Perceived barriers’ is a health promotion concept that has been found to be a significant predictor of health promotion behaviour. There is evidence that women face a range of perceived barriers that prevent them from engaging in healthy lifestyle activities. Despite this, current evidence based models of diabetes education do not explicitly incorporate the concept of perceived barriers. A model of risk factor reduction that incorporates ‘perceived barriers’ is proposed. Conclusion: Although further research is required, current approaches to risk factor reduction in type 2 diabetes could be enhanced by identification and goal setting to reduce an individual’s perceived barriers.

Predicting deadline tansgressions using event logs

Effective risk management is crucial for any organisation. One of its key steps is risk identification, but few tools exist to support this process. Here we present a method for the automatic discovery of a particular type of process-related risk, the danger of deadline transgressions or overruns, based on the analysis of event logs. We define a set of time-related process risk indicators, i.e., patterns observable in event logs that highlight the likelihood of an overrun, and then show how instances of these patterns can be identified automatically using statistical principles. To demonstrate its feasibility, the approach has been implemented as a plug-in module to the process mining framework ProM and tested using an event log from a Dutch financial institution.

Risk-based approach to the management of on-site wastewater treatment facilities

Background On-site wastewater treatment system (OWTS) siting, design and management has traditionally been based on site specific conditions with little regard to the surrounding environment or the cumulative effect of other systems in the environment. The general approach has been to apply the same framework of standards and regulations to all sites equally, regardless of the sensitivity, or lack thereof, to the receiving environment. Consequently, this has led to the continuing poor performance and failure of on-site systems, resulting in environmental and public health consequences. As a result, there is increasing realisation that more scientifically robust evaluations in regard to site assessment and the underlying ground conditions are needed. Risk-based approaches to on-site system siting, design and management are considered the most appropriate means of improvement to the current standards and codes for on-site wastewater treatment systems. The Project Research in relation to this project was undertaken within the Gold Coast City Council region, the major focus being the semi-urban, rural residential and hinterland areas of the city that are not serviced by centralised treatment systems. The Gold Coast has over 15,000 on-site systems in use, with approximately 66% being common septic tank-subsurface dispersal systems. A recent study evaluating the performance of these systems within the Gold Coast area showed approximately 90% were not meeting the specified guidelines for effluent treatment and dispersal. The main focus of this research was to incorporate strong scientific knowledge into an integrated risk assessment process to allow suitable management practices to be set in place to mitigate the inherent risks. To achieve this, research was undertaken focusing on three main aspects involved with the performance and management of OWTS. Firstly, an investigation into the suitability of soil for providing appropriate effluent renovation was conducted. This involved detailed soil investigations, laboratory analysis and the use of multivariate statistical methods for analysing soil information. The outcomes of these investigations were developed into a framework for assessing soil suitability for effluent renovation. This formed the basis for the assessment of OWTS siting and design risks employed in the developed risk framework. Secondly, an assessment of the environmental and public health risks was performed specifically related the release of contaminants from OWTS. This involved detailed groundwater and surface water sampling and analysis to assess the current and potential risks of contamination throughout the Gold Coast region. Additionally, the assessment of public health risk incorporated the use of bacterial source tracking methods to identify the different sources of fecal contamination within monitored regions. Antibiotic resistance pattern analysis was utilised to determine the extent of human faecal contamination, with the outcomes utilised for providing a more indicative public health assessment. Finally, the outcomes of both the soil suitability assessment and ground and surface water monitoring was utilised for the development of the integrated risk framework. The research outcomes achieved through this project enabled the primary research aims and objects to be accomplished. This in turn would enable Gold Coast City Council to provide more appropriate assessment and management guidelines based on robust scientific knowledge which will ultimately ensure that the potential environmental and public health impacts resulting from on-site wastewater treatment is minimised. As part of the implementation of suitable management strategies, a critical point monitoring program (CPM) was formulated. This entailed the identification of the key critical parameters that contribute to the characterised risks at monitored locations within the study area. The CPM will allow more direct procedures to be implemented, targeting the specific hazards at sensitive areas throughout Gold Coast region.

Malnutrition and falls risk in community-dwelling older adults

Background and Aims: Falls and fall-related injuries result in reduced functioning, loss of independence, premature nursing home admissions and mortality. Malnutrition is associated with falls in the acute setting, but little is known about malnutrition and falls risk in the community. The aim of this study was to assess the association between malnutrition risk, falls risk and falls over a one-year period in community-dwelling older adults. Methods: Two hundred and fifty four subjects >65 years of age were recruited to participate in a study in order to identify risk factors for falls. Malnutrition risk was determined using the Mini Nutritional Assessment–Short Form. Results: 28.6% had experienced a fall and according to the Mini Nutritional Assessment-Short Form 3.9% (n=10) of subjects were at risk of malnutrition. There were no associations between malnutrition risk, the risk of falls, nor actual falls in healthy older adults in the community setting. Conclusions: There was a low prevalence of malnutrition risk in this sample of community-dwelling older adults and no association between nutritional risk and falls. Screening as part of a falls prevention program should focus on the risk of developing malnutrition as this is associated with falls.

Risk control in transmission system expansion planning with wind generators

With the advent of large-scale wind farms and their integration into electrical grids, more uncertainties, constraints and objectives must be considered in power system development. It is therefore necessary to introduce risk-control strategies into the planning of transmission systems connected with wind power generators. This paper presents a probability-based multi-objective model equipped with three risk-control strategies. The model is developed to evaluate and enhance the ability of the transmission system to protect against overload risks when wind power is integrated into the power system. The model involves: (i) defining the uncertainties associated with wind power generators with probability measures and calculating the probabilistic power flow with the combined use of cumulants and Gram-Charlier series; (ii) developing three risk-control strategies by specifying the smallest acceptable non-overload probability for each branch and the whole system, and specifying the non-overload margin for all branches in the whole system; (iii) formulating an overload risk index based on the non-overload probability and the non-overload margin defined; and (iv) developing a multi-objective transmission system expansion planning (TSEP) model with the objective functions composed of transmission investment and the overload risk index. The presented work represents a superior risk-control model for TSEP in terms of security, reliability and economy. The transmission expansion planning model with the three risk-control strategies demonstrates its feasibility in the case study using two typical power systems

Akt, AS160, metabolic risk factors and aerobic fitness in middle-aged women

Aims: This study investigated the association between the basal (rest) insulin-signaling proteins, Akt, and the Akt substrate AS160, metabolic risk factors, inflammatory markers and aerobic fitness, in middle-aged women with varying numbers of metabolic risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Methods: Sixteen women (n = 16) aged 51.3+/-5.1 (mean +/-SD) years provided muscle biopsies and blood samples at rest. In addition, anthropometric characteristics and aerobic power were assessed and the number of metabolic risk factors for each participant was determined (IDF criteria). Results: The mean number of metabolic risk factors was 1.6+/-1.2. Total Akt was negatively correlated with IL-1 beta (r = -0.45, p = 0.046), IL-6 (r = -0.44, p = 0.052) and TNF-alpha (r = -0.51, p = 0.025). Phosphorylated AS160 was positively correlated with HDL (r = 0.58, p = 0.024) and aerobic fitness (r = 0.51, p = 0.047). Furthermore, a multiple regression analysis revealed that both HDL (t = 2.5, p = 0.032) and VO(2peak) (t = 2.4, p = 0.037) were better predictors for phosphorylated AS160 than TNF-alpha or IL-6 (p>0.05). Conclusions: Elevated inflammatory markers and increased metabolic risk factors may inhibit insulin-signaling protein phosphorylation in middle-aged women, thereby increasing insulin resistance under basal conditions. Furthermore, higher HDL and fitness levels are associated with an increased AS160 phosphorylation, which may in turn reduce insulin resistance.

Evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce the risk of surgical site infections following primary total hip arthroplasty

Background Total hip arthroplasty (THA) is a commonly performed procedure and numbers are increasing with ageing populations. One of the most serious complications in THA are surgical site infections (SSIs), caused by pathogens entering the wound during the procedure. SSIs are associated with a substantial burden for health services, increased mortality and reduced functional outcomes in patients. Numerous approaches to preventing these infections exist but there is no gold standard in practice and the cost-effectiveness of alternate strategies is largely unknown. Objectives The aim of this project was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce deep surgical site infections following total hip arthroplasty in Australia. The objectives were: 1. Identification of competing strategies or combinations of strategies that are clinically relevant to the control of SSI related to hip arthroplasty 2. Evidence synthesis and pooling of results to assess the volume and quality of evidence claiming to reduce the risk of SSI following total hip arthroplasty 3. Construction of an economic decision model incorporating cost and health outcomes for each of the identified strategies 4. Quantification of the effect of uncertainty in the model 5. Assessment of the value of perfect information among model parameters to inform future data collection Methods The literature relating to SSI in THA was reviewed, in particular to establish definitions of these concepts, understand mechanisms of aetiology and microbiology, risk factors, diagnosis and consequences as well as to give an overview of existing infection prevention measures. Published economic evaluations on this topic were also reviewed and limitations for Australian decision-makers identified. A Markov state-transition model was developed for the Australian context and subsequently validated by clinicians. The model was designed to capture key events related to deep SSI occurring within the first 12 months following primary THA. Relevant infection prevention measures were selected by reviewing clinical guideline recommendations combined with expert elicitation. Strategies selected for evaluation were the routine use of pre-operative antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) versus no use of antibiotic prophylaxis (No AP) or in combination with antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP & ABC) or laminar air operating rooms (AP & LOR). The best available evidence for clinical effect size and utility parameters was harvested from the medical literature using reproducible methods. Queensland hospital data were extracted to inform patients’ transitions between model health states and related costs captured in assigned treatment codes. Costs related to infection prevention were derived from reliable hospital records and expert opinion. Uncertainty of model input parameters was explored in probabilistic sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses and the value of perfect information was estimated. Results The cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from a health services perspective using a hypothetical cohort of 30,000 THA patients aged 65 years. The baseline rate of deep SSI was 0.96% within one year of a primary THA. The routine use of antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) was highly cost-effective and resulted in cost savings of over $1.6m whilst generating an extra 163 QALYs (without consideration of uncertainty). Deterministic and probabilistic analysis (considering uncertainty) identified antibiotic prophylaxis combined with antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP & ABC) to be the most cost-effective strategy. Using AP & ABC generated the highest net monetary benefit (NMB) and an incremental $3.1m NMB compared to only using antibiotic prophylaxis. There was a very low error probability that this strategy might not have the largest NMB (<5%). Not using antibiotic prophylaxis (No AP) or using both antibiotic prophylaxis combined with laminar air operating rooms (AP & LOR) resulted in worse health outcomes and higher costs. Sensitivity analyses showed that the model was sensitive to the initial cohort starting age and the additional costs of ABC but the best strategy did not change, even for extreme values. The cost-effectiveness improved for a higher proportion of cemented primary THAs and higher baseline rates of deep SSI. The value of perfect information indicated that no additional research is required to support the model conclusions. Conclusions Preventing deep SSI with antibiotic prophylaxis and antibiotic-impregnated cement has shown to improve health outcomes among hospitalised patients, save lives and enhance resource allocation. By implementing a more beneficial infection control strategy, scarce health care resources can be used more efficiently to the benefit of all members of society. The results of this project provide Australian policy makers with key information about how to efficiently manage risks of infection in THA.

In the bank or on the ground : an examination of financial reserves in Australian international aid organisations

This study contributes to the understanding of the contribution of financial reserves to sustaining nonprofit organisations. Recognising the limited recent Australian research in the area of nonprofit financial vulnerability, it specifically examines financial reserves held by signatories to the Code of Conduct of the Australian Council for International Development (ACFID) for the years 2006 to 2010. As this period includes the Global Financial Crisis, it presents a unique opportunity to observe the role of savings in a period of heightened financial threats to sustainability. The need for nonprofit entities to maintain reserves, while appearing intuitively evident, is neither unanimously accepted nor supported by established theoretic constructs. Some early frameworks attempt to explain the savings behaviour of nonprofit organisations and its role in organisational sustainability. Where researchers have considered the issue, its treatment has usually been either purely descriptive or alternatively, peripheral to a broader attempt to predict financial vulnerability. Given the importance of nonprofit entities to civil society, the sustainability of these organisations during times of economic contraction, such as the recent Global Financial Crisis, is a significant issue. Widespread failure of nonprofits, or even the perception of failure, will directly affect, not only those individuals who access their public goods and services, but would also have impacts on public confidence in both government and the sectors’ ability to manage and achieve their purpose. This study attempts to ‘shine a light’ on the paradox inherent in considering nonprofit savings. On the one hand, a public prevailing view is that nonprofit organisations should not hoard and indeed, should spend all of their funds on the direct achievement of their purposes. Against this, is the commonsense need for a financial buffer if only to allow for the day to day contingencies of pay rises and cost increases. At the entity level, the extent of reserves accumulated (or not) is an important consideration for Management Boards. The general public are also interested in knowing the level of funds held by nonprofits as a measure of both their commitment to purpose and as an indicator of their effectiveness. There is a need to communicate the level and prevalence of reserve holdings, balancing the prudent hedging of uncertainty against a sense of resource hoarding in the mind of donors. Finally, funders (especially governments) are interested in knowing the appropriate level of reserves to facilitate the ongoing sustainability of the sector. This is particularly so where organisations are involved in the provision of essential public goods and services. At a scholarly level, the study seeks to provide a rationale for this behaviour within the context of appropriate theory. At a practical level, the study seeks to give an indication of the drivers for savings, the actual levels of reserves held within the sector studied, as well as an indication as to whether the presence of reserves did mitigate the effects of financial turmoil during the Global Financial Crisis. The argument is not whether there is a need to ensure sustainability of nonprofits, but rather how it is to be done and whether the holding of reserves (net assets) is an essential element is achieving this. While the study offers no simple answers, it does appear that the organisations studied present as two groups, the ‘savers’ who build reserves and keep ‘money in the bank’ and ‘spender-delivers’ who put their resources ‘on the ground’. To progress an understanding of this dichotomy, the study suggests a need to move from its current approach to one which needs to more closely explore accounts based empirical donor attitude and nonprofit Management Board strategy.

Behavioural beliefs concerning gender and high-risk sexual behaviours in the context of HIV/AIDS in PNG : views from within teacher education

Education is often viewed as a key approach to address sexual-health issues; the current concern is the burgeoning HIV/AIDS epidemic. This ethnographic study investigates the gender practices associated with high-risk sexual behaviour in Papua New Guinea as viewed by educators there. A number of practices, including gender inequality and associated sexual behaviours have been highlighted by male and female participants as escalating PNG’s HIV/AIDS epidemic. The study finds that although participants were well-informed concerning HIV/AIDS, they had varying beliefs concerning the prevailing gender/sexual issues involved in escalating highrisk behaviour and how to address the problem. The study further examines the behavioural beliefs and intentions of the educators themselves. Subsequently, within the data a number of underpinning factors, pertaining to gender, education and life experience, were found to be related to the behaviour beliefs and intentions of participants towards embracing change with regard to behaviours associated with gender equality in PNG. These factors appeared to encourage participants to adopt healthier gender and sexual behavioural intentions and, arguably, could provide the basis for ways to help address the gender inequality and high-risk behaviours associated with HIV/AIDS in PNG.

Risk factors to predict the incidence of surgical adverse events following open or laparoscopic surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer: results from a randomised controlled trial

Aims: To identify risk factors for major Adverse Events (AEs) and to develop a nomogram to predict the probability of such AEs in individual patients who have surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer. Methods: We used data from 753 patients who were randomized to either total laparoscopic hysterectomy or total abdominal hysterectomy in the LACE trial. Serious adverse events that prolonged hospital stay or postoperative adverse events (using common terminology criteria 3+, CTCAE V3) were considered major AEs. We analyzed pre-surgical characteristics that were associated with the risk of developing major AEs by multivariate logistic regression. We identified a parsimonious model by backward stepwise logistic regression. The six most significant or clinically important variables were included in the nomogram to predict the risk of major AEs within 6 weeks of surgery and the nomogram was internally validated. Results: Overall, 132 (17.5%) patients had at least one major AE. An open surgical approach (laparotomy), higher Charlson’s medical co-morbidities score, moderately differentiated tumours on curettings, higher baseline ECOG score, higher body mass index and low haemoglobin levels were associated with AE and were used in the nomogram. The bootstrap corrected concordance index of the nomogram was 0.63 and it showed good calibration. Conclusions: Six pre-surgical factors independently predicted the risk of major AEs. This research might form the basis to develop risk reduction strategies to minimize the risk of AEs among patients undergoing surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer.

Accident risk identification and its impact analyses for strategic construction safety management

The study presented in this paper reviewed 9,358 accidents which occurred in the U.S. construction industry between 2002 and 2011, in order to understand the relationships between the risk factors and injury severity (e.g. fatalities, hospitalized injuries, or non-hospitalized injuries) and to develop a strategic prevention plan to reduce the likelihood of fatalities where an accident is unavoidable. The study specifically aims to: (1) verify the relationships among risk factors, accident types, and injury severity, (2) determine significant risk factors associated with each accident type that are highly correlated to injury severity, and (3) analyze the impact of the identified key factors on accident and fatality occurrence. The analysis results explained that safety managers’ roles are critical to reducing human-related risks—particularly misjudgement of hazardous situations—through safety training and education, appropriate use of safety devices and proper safety inspection. However, for environment-related factors, the dominant risk factors were different depending on the different accident types. The outcomes of this study will assist safety managers to understand the nature of construction accidents and plan for strategic risk mitigation by prioritizing high frequency risk factors to effectively control accident occurrence and manage the likelihood of fatal injuries on construction sites.

Going public : do risk and choice explain differences in caesarean birth rates between public and private places of birth in Australia?

Background: Women who birth in private facilities in Australia are more likely to have a caesarean birth than women who birth in public facilities and these differences remain after accounting for sector differences in the demographic and health risk profiles of women. However, the extent to which women’s preferences and/or freedom to choose their mode of birth further account for differences in the likelihood of caesarean birth between the sectors remains untested. Method: Women who birthed in Queensland, Australia during a two-week period in 2009 were mailed a self-report survey approximately three months after birth. Seven hundred and fifty-seven women provided cross-sectional retrospective data on where they birthed (public or private facility), mode of birth (vaginal or caesarean) and risk factors, along with their preferences and freedom to choose their mode of birth. A hierarchical logistic regression was conducted to determine the extent to which maternal risk and freedom to choose one’s mode of birth explain sector differences in the likelihood of having a caesarean birth. Findings: While there was no sector difference in women’s preference for mode of birth, women who birthed in private facilities had higher odds of feeling able to choose either a vaginal or caesarean birth, and feeling able to choose only a caesarean birth. Women had higher odds of having caesarean birth if they birthed in private facilities, even after accounting for significant risk factors such as age, body mass index, previous caesarean and use of assisted reproductive technology. However, there was no association between place of birth and odds of having a caesarean birth after also accounting for freedom to choose one’s mode of birth. Conclusions: These findings call into question suggestions that the higher caesarean birth rate in the private sector in Australia is attributable to increased levels of obstetric risk among women birthing in the private sector or maternal preferences alone. Instead, the determinants of sector differences in the likelihood of caesarean births are complex and are linked to differences in the perceived choices for mode of birth between women birthing in the private and public systems.

Riding the tide of biopharming in Africa: Considerations for risk assessment

In the past few years, plant biotechnology has gone beyond traditional agricultural production of food, feed and fibre, and moved to address more complex contemporary health, social and industrial challenges. The new era involves production of novel pharmaceutical products, speciality and fine chemicals, phytoremediation and production of renewable energy resources to replace non-renewable fossil fuels. Plants have been shown to provide a genuine and low-cost alternative production system for high-value products. Currently, the principal plant-made products include antibodies, feed additives, vaccine antigens and hormones for human and animal health, and industrial proteins. Despite the unique advantages of scalability, cost and product safety, issues of politics, environmental impact, regulation and socioeconomics still limit the adoption of biopharmaceuticals, especially in the developing world. Plant-based production systems have further complicated biosafety, gene flow and environmental impact assessments with generally genetically modified plants, topics that are already partially understood. This article provides a background to biopharming, highlighting basic considerations for risk assessment and regulation in developing countries, with an emphasis on plant-based vaccine production in South Africa.