Sistema financeiro e crescimento económico

Os resultados que a atual crise, iniciada em 2008, de cariz inicialmente financeira mas que teve, e tem, importantes repercursões na economia real a nivel mundial, tornaram protagonista a discussão sobre a possível relação entre o Sistema Financeiro e o Crescimento Económico. Os varios países afetados, em particular os países da União Europeia, têm reunido esforços para reformular as políticas económicas e financeiras como forma de recuperar as economias e evitar futuras crises. Os custos e efeitos da crise fizeram emergir vários estudos que põem em causa a correlação assumida como sempre positiva entre o desenvolvimento da vertente financeira e o crescimento da economia real que até aqui era tida como certa. O principal objetivo desta dissertação é analisar a forma como o rápido crescimento e uma sobredimensão do Setor Financeiro, motivado essencialmente pela desrugulação financeira e pelo boom financeiro registado a partir dos anos 90, podem influenciar o crescimento da economia real, fazendo emergir a tese da existência de um limiar a partir do qual o efeito das finanças no crescimento económico pode ser perverso. A literatura sobre a relação entre o Sistema Financeiro e o Crescimento Económico não é unívoca quanto ao sinal entre as duas vertentes, hevendo uma leitura recente em que a taxa de crescimento e a excessiva dimensão financeira, desviando demasiados recursos dos outros setores da economia, podem ser um entrave à sustentação do crescimento da economia real. Tentando confirmar ou infirmar a existência de um limiar de crescimento da economia real decorrente da vertente financeira (transmitido, sobretudo, pelo crédito ao setor privado e pelo emprego financeiro), foi feita uma análise econométrica, com dados em painel com base nos países da União Europeia no período de 1990 a 2010. Os resultados obtidos apontam para a confirmação da hipótese da existência de um limiar de crescimento, em particular a relação “parabólica” existente entre o Financiamento e o Crescimento. Adicionalmente, o estudo revela uma influência negativa dos gastos públicos sobre o crescimento.

De serviteurs de l´Etat à représentants élus. Les parlementaires originaires du secteur public en Europe

This article aims at testing empirically the relevance of the State/civil society dichotomy commonly used by political theorists through the question of the specific weight of MPs having a public sector background in Europe. It uses the DATACUBE data set in order to show that such an opposition is only relative because of the specific weight of the public sector in the parliamentary elite considered in a long-term perspective. The article focuses on the dynamics of this relevance and introduces nuances regarding variations across countries, sub-categories within the public sector and political parties.

Suicide study : a psychological autopsy

RESUMO: O'suicídio'é'atualmente'um'problema'de'saúde'pública.'Estimarse'que'um'milhão'de'pessoas' morra'anualmente'devido'ao'suicídio.'De'acordo'com'diversas'agências'e'organizações'estimar 'que'ocorram'entre'20'a'40'tentativas'de'suicídio'por'cada'suicídio'consumado.'Os'custos'associados'ao'suicídio,'quer'humanos'quer'económicos'são'enormes'e'estendemrse'à'família,'emprego,'economia'e'finanças.'Os'números'oficiais'do'suicídio'em'Portugal'indicam'uma'taxa ligeiramente'acima'dos'10'por' cada'100'000'habitantes'mas' comportando' regiões'onde' são'observadas' taxas' muito' elevadas,' como' no' Sudoeste' de' Portugal' onde' se' observam particularmente taxas 3'vezes'acima'da'média'nacional.' Investigámos' o' fenómeno' com' os' objetivos' de' validar' a' técnica' de' autópsia' psicológica' em' contexto' comunitário' nunca' realizado' em' Portugal,' e' dar' um' contributo' para' uma' compreensão'mais'alargada'deste'problema'de'saúde'pública,'especialmente'nesta'região'de' Odemira.' A' autópsia' psicológica' consiste' em' reunir' detalhadamente' informação' sobre' a'personalidade' e' vida' de' alguém' que' morreu' em' circunstâncias' equívocas' (por' suicídio,' homicídio' ou' acidente)'recorrendo'ainda'a'registos'e'documentação,'bem'como'procedendo'a entrevistas' com' familiares,' colegas' ou' amigos.' Foi' feita' uma' adaptação' de' uma' entrevista' semirestruturada' para' o' efeito.' Foram' recrutados' 2' grupos' de' participantes:' um' grupo' de familiares de pessoas que cometeram'suicídio'(n=30)'e'um'grupo'de'familiares'de'pessoas'que morreram de causas' naturais' (n=24).' O' estudo' decorreu' em' 3' momentos' com' sessões' de' apresentação' (i),' sessões' de' preparação' (ii)' e' entrevistas' para' recolha' de' informação' e'monitorização.'' Os' principais' resultados'mostram' que' existiram' dificuldades' na' obtenção' da' informação' a'partir' dos' entrevistados,' a'maioria' dos' suicidas' eram'homens' acima' dos' 40' anos' de' idade,' afetados' por' lesões' graves' ou' doenças' graves' ' no' período' adulto' embora' apresentassem'condições' válidas' para' trabalhar,' reformados,' vivendo' em' família,' com' traços' de'personalidade' amargurados,' tristes' ou' pessimistas,' com' escassas' atividades' nos' tempos' de' lazer,' sem' problemas' somáticos' significativos' ou' perturbações'mentais' que' comunicaram' a intenção de morrer previamente'e'provenientes'de'famílias'sem'dificuldades'económicas'ou'relações'familiares'desadequadas.' Tendo'em'conta'a'literatura,'algumas'das'características'parecem'ser'muito'particulares'desta'população.'Aparentemente'o'suicídio'poderá'ter'implicações'genéticas'que'deveriam'ser'tidas'em'conta'em'futuras'investigações.' A'integração'da'saúde'mental'nos'cuidados'de'saúde'primários'afigurarse'urgente'tendo'em' conta' que' a' escassez' de' profissionais' de' saúde'mental' é' enorme' numa' parte' do' país' onde'ocorre' o'maior'número'de' suicídios.'Mudar'de'modelo'e'reorganizar'os' serviços'de' forma'a' poder' dar' uma' resposta' ao' défice' de' tratamento' de' saúde' mental' e' ter' em' conta' os' determinantes'sociais'da'saúde'para'fazer'face'ao'isolamento'é'fundamental.' ---------------ABSTRACT: Suicide' is,'nowadays,' a'public'health'problem.'A'million'dies' annually'by' suicide'worldwide.' According'to'several'agencies'and'organizations'an'estimation'of'20'to'40'suicide'attempts'is advanced for each complete' suicide. Associated'costs'to'suicide,'both'human'and'economic,'are' huge' and' spread' on' family,' jobs,' economy,' and' finances.' Official' available' figures' for' suicide' in' Portugal' indicate' a' rate' slightly' over' 10' for' each' 100' 000' inhabitants,' but' with'regions'where'one' can' actually' find'extremely'high' rates,' like' for' instance' in' the'Southwest' part' of' the' country,' where' are' regularly' found' rates' 3' times' higher,' when' compared' to'national'average.'' We' have' investigated' the' phenomenon' aiming' to' validate' the' technique' of' psychological'autopsy' in' a' community' context' never' explored' before' in' Portugal' and' to' contribute' for' a' wider' understanding' of' this' public' health' problem,' especially' in' this' region' of' Odemira.' Psychological'autopsy'consists'into'a'detailed'gathering'of'information'about'the'personality'and' life' of' someone' died' in' equivocal' circumstances' (suicide,' homicide,' accident),' registries and other'documentation'as'well'as'interviews'with'family'members,'corworkers'and'friends.' An' adaptation' of' a' semirstructured' interview' was' made.' Two' groups' of' participants' were'recruited: a'group of'relatives'of'people'committing'suicide'(n=30),'and'a'group'of'relatives'of'people' whose' death' was' after' natural' causes' (n=24).' Study' was'made' in' 3'moments' with'presentation'sessions;'(i)'preparation'sessions;'(ii)'interviewing'data'collection'and'monitoring' iii).'' Main'results'showed'difficulties'to'obtain'information'from'interviewees,'most'suicides'were' from males over 40 years old, affected'by'serious'illness'or'severe'injury'in'adulthood'but'valid'to'work,'retired,'living'in'family,'with'bitterness,'sad'or'pessimistic'as'personality'traits,'with'few' leisure' activities,' without' significant' health' somatic' problems' or' mental' disorders,'communicating'intention'to'die'previously,'coming'from'families'with'no'indication'of'financial'distress'or'inadequate'family'relationship.' Taking'into'account'the'literature'it'looks'like'some'features'seem'to'be'quiet'particular'from'this'population.'Apparently'one'might'say'that'suicide'could'have'genetic'implications'which'further'research'should'account'in'the'future.' Integration' of'mental' health' into' primary' care' is' urgent' once' the' scarcity' of'mental' health' professionals' is' enormous' in' a' part' of' the' country' where' most' suicides' occur.' Scaling' up services must go in order'to'address'to'treatment'gap'and'social'determinants'of'health'should'be'taken'into'account'to'face'isolation.' Results' show' that' the' profile' of' the' suicidal' in' the' region' of' Odemira' is' particular' and'implications' of' genetics' should' be' taken' into' account.' Moreover' much' can' be' done' in'organization' of' services' in' the' region' where' we' performed' the' present' study' in' order' to'address'to'treatment'gap'for'mental'disorders'and'to'the'social'determinants'of'health.

Innovative medicines in the portuguese private health sector

The present dissertation aims at contributing to a strategic view over the use of innovative medicines in the portuguese private health sector, as a way of being complementary to public system that nowadays finances most of the innovative medicines. With the rationalization of expenses in the public health sector, pharmaceutical companies tend to look for opportunities of expansion to the private sector. The creation of innovative financial models for the private sector to cover innovative treatments is the proposed way of surpassing the restriction on the NHS sales of innovative medicines. This can be both for differentiating private health providers from the NHS or for the creation of premium services that can be differentiated from other private providers of the portuguese market.

A liberdade de circulação de pessoas no contexto da cidadania da União Europeia: acesso aos benefícios sociais

Dissertação de mestrado em Direitos Humanos

O preço da água nos municípios portugueses: quais as razões para as suas disparidades?

Dissertação de mestrado em Economia Monetária, Bancária e Financeira

O procedimento relativo aos défices excessivos na União Económica e Monetária

Dissertação de mestrado em Direito da União Europeia

A Methodology to measure shareholder value orientation and shareholder value creation aimed at providing a research basis to investigate the link between both magnitudes

Does shareholder value orientation lead to shareholder value creation? This article proposes methods to quantify both, shareholder value orientation and shareholder value creation. Through the application of these models it is possible to quantify both dimensions and examine statistically in how far shareholder value orientation explains shareholder value creation. The scoring model developed in this paper allows quantifying the orientation of managers towards the objective to maximize wealth of shareholders. The method evaluates information that comes from the companies and scores the value orientation in a scale from 0 to 10 points. Analytically the variable value orientation is operationalized expressing it as the general attitude of managers toward the objective of value creation, investment policy and behavior, flexibility and further eight value drivers. The value creation model works with market data such as stock prices and dividend payments. Both methods where applied to a sample of 38 blue chip companies: 32 firms belonged to the share index IBEX 35 on July 1st, 1999, one company represents the “new economy” listed in the Spanish New Market as per July 1st, 2001, and 5 European multinational groups formed part of the EuroStoxx 50 index also on July 1st, 2001. The research period comprised the financial years 1998, 1999, and 2000. A regression analysis showed that between 15.9% and 23.4% of shareholder value creation can be explained by shareholder value orientation.

Opción de responsabilidad limitada y opción de abandonar: una integración para el análisis del coste de capital

El objetivo de este documento es formalizar el valor de las acciones de una empresa endeudada, la responsabilidad limitada de los accionistas de una sociedad anónima y la rentabilidad exigida en un horizonte perpetuo, aplicando la teoría de opciones. El modelo que se elabora parte del establecido por Fisher Black y Myron Scholes en 1973 sobre el valor de las acciones de una empresa endeudada en un horizonte monoperiódico. En este modelo se encuentra un problema: la limitación del horizonte a un solo período. El modelo que se desarrolla en este documento, se basa en que el horizonte de la empresa es, en principio, ilimitado, y es frecuente que se mantenga un determinado grado de endeudamiento a lo largo de su vida. Es decir, se considera el endeudamiento de la empresa de horizonte perpetuo. Como consecuencia, los accionistas pueden declarar la quiebra en cualquier momento independientemente del vencimiento de la deuda, dejando la empresa en manos de los acreedores. Basándose en este modelo de horizonte perpetuo, se introduce la opción de abandonar. Se utiliza el valor de venta que tiene el activo de la empresa en el mercado, los accionistas lo comparan con el valor de las deudas, y deciden si es más rentable seguir con la empresa o vender los elementos del activo en el mercado. Para la valoración, se utiliza la fórmula deducida por Merton (1990) de la opción de venta americana perpetua. También se utiliza las opciones de barrera. Una vez valorada la responsabilidad limitada de los accionistas en un horizonte perpetuo, se puede calcular el interés efectivo en condiciones de riesgo.

The private and fiscal returns to schooling and the effect of public policies on private incentives to invest in education: a general framework and some results for the EU

This paper develops a comprehensive framework for the quantitative analysis of the private and fiscal returns to schooling and of the effect of public policies on private incentives to invest in education. This framework is applied to 14 member states of the European Union. For each of these countries, we construct estimates of the private return to an additional year of schooling for an individual of average attainment, taking into account the effects of education on wages and employment probabilities after allowing for academic failure rates, the direct and opportunity costs of schooling, and the impact of personal taxes, social security contributions and unemployment and pension benefits on net incomes. We also construct a set of effective tax and subsidy rates that measure the effects of different public policies on the private returns to education, and measures of the fiscal returns to schooling that capture the long-term effects of a marginal increase in attainment on public finances under c

Human capital as a factor of growth and employment at the regional level. The case of Spain

We use statistical techniques to quantify the effects of school attainment on individual wages, participation rates and employment probabilities in Spain, and to measure the contribution of education to labour productivity at the regional level. These estimates are then combined with data on private and public expenditure on education and with information on taxes and social benefits to construct measures of the private and social returns to schooling, to explore the effects of public policies on private incentives to invest in human capital, and to analyse the long-term effects of schooling on public finances. The results are used, together with estimates of the returns to alternative assets, to draw some tentative conclusions regarding the adequacy of the aggregate investment patterns observed in the regions of Spain, and to identify changes in the design of national and EU cohesion and growth policies that may help enhance their effectiveness.

The behavior of money velocity in low and high inflation countries

This paper presents a general equilibrium model of money demand where the velocity of money changes in response to endogenous fluctuations in the interest rate. The parameter space can be divided into two subsets: one where velocity is constant as in standard cash-in-advance models, and another one where velocity fluctuates as in Baumol (1952). The model provides an explanation of why, for a sample of 79 countries, the correlation between the velocity of money and the inflation rate appears to be low, unlike common wisdom would suggest. The reason is the diverse transaction technologies available in different economies.

Are one factor logarithmic volatility models useful to fit the features of financial data? An application to microsoft data.

This paper provides empirical evidence that continuous time models with one factor of volatility, in some conditions, are able to fit the main characteristics of financial data. It also reports the importance of the feedback factor in capturing the strong volatility clustering of data, caused by a possible change in the pattern of volatility in the last part of the sample. We use the Efficient Method of Moments (EMM) by Gallant and Tauchen (1996) to estimate logarithmic models with one and two stochastic volatility factors (with and without feedback) and to select among them.

Consumption externalities, habit formation, and equilibrium efficiency

We analyze the welfare properties of the competitive equilibrium in a capital accumulation model where individual preferences are subjected to both habit formation and consumption spillovers. We also discuss how consumption externalities and habits interact to generate an inefficient dynamic equilibrium. Finally, we characterize optimal tax policies aimed to restore efficient decentralized paths.