948 resultados para Feyerabend, Paul K.


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The time series of abundance indices for many groundfish populations, as determined from trawl surveys, are often imprecise and short, causing stock assessment estimates of abundance to be imprecise. To improve precision, prior probability distributions (priors) have been developed for parameters in stock assessment models by using meta-analysis, expert judgment on catchability, and empirically based modeling. This article presents a synthetic approach for formulating priors for rockfish trawl survey catchability (qgross). A multivariate prior for qgross for different surveys is formulated by using 1) a correction factor for bias in estimating fish density between trawlable and untrawlable areas, 2) expert judgment on trawl net catchability, 3) observations from trawl survey experiments, and 4) data on the fraction of population biomass in each of the areas surveyed. The method is illustrated by using bocaccio (Sebastes paucipinis) in British Columbia. Results indicate that expert judgment can be updated markedly by observing the catch-rate ratio from different trawl gears in the same areas. The marginal priors for qgross are consistent with empirical estimates obtained by fitting a stock assessment model to the survey data under a noninformative prior for qgross. Despite high prior uncertainty (prior coefficients of variation ≥0.8) and high prior correlation between qgross, the prior for qgross still enhances the precision of key stock assessment quantities.

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Examination of hard parts recovered from scats (feces) is currently the most common method for determining the diet of pinnipeds. However, large or sharp prey remains may be spewed (regurgitated) biasing prey composition and size estimations in diet studies based on scats. Percent frequency of occurrence (FO%) and age or size of selected prey remains recovered from northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus) scat (n=3444) and spew samples (n=267) collected from rookeries on St. George Island and St. Paul Island, Alaska, between 1990 and 2000 were compared to determine if a bias in prey composition and age or size estimations existed between scats and spews. Overall prey composition was similar between sample type and location, but the relative FO% of primary prey (≥5%) varied by sample type and location. Age or size estimates of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) and of two species of gonatid squids (Gonatopsis borealis and Berryteuthis magister) were significantly larger in spews than in scats. Observed differences in FO% and estimated age or size of prey species whose remains were found in scats and spews likely result from size-selective digestion of prey remains. Scats were biased toward smaller prey remains, whereas spews were biased toward larger prey remains and cephalopod beaks. The percent overlap between age classes of walleye pollock caught by the commercial trawl fishery and age classes of walleye pollock consumed by northern fur seals varied noticeably between sample types for both islands (scats: St. George=15. 5%; St. Paul=4.1%; spews: St. George=94.6%; St. Paul=89.6%). These results demonstrate that the inclusion of multiple sampling methods allows for a more accurate assessment of northern fur seal prey occurrence and prey age and size.

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[EUS] Foruako aztarnategi arkeologikotik datozen erromatar garaiko forja zepa metalikoen karakterizazioa, garai hartan indarrean zegoen siderurgiari buruzko ezagutza handitzeko asmoz.

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