Composition of electricity generation portfolios, pivotal dynamics and market prices

We use a simulation model to study how the diversification of electricity generation portfoliosinfluences wholesale prices. We find that technological diversification generally leads to lower market prices but that the relationship is mediated by the supply to demand ratio. In each demand case there is a threshold where pivotal dynamics change. Pivotal dynamics pre- and post-threshold are the cause of non-linearities in the influence of diversification on market prices. The findings are robust to our choice of behavioural parameters and match close-form solutions where those are available.

Minimum price variations, time priority and quotes dynamics

We analyze the impact of a minimum price variation (tick) and timepriority on the dynamics of quotes and the trading costs when competitionfor the order flow is dynamic. We find that convergence to competitiveoutcomes can take time and that the speed of convergence is influencedby the tick size, the priority rule and the characteristics of the orderarrival process. We show also that a zero minimum price variation is neveroptimal when competition for the order flow is dynamic. We compare thetrading outcomes with and without time priority. Time priority is shownto guarantee that uncompetitive spreads cannot be sustained over time.However it can sometimes result in higher trading costs. Empiricalimplications are proposed. In particular, we relate the size of thetrading costs to the frequency of new offers and the dynamics of theinside spread to the state of the book.

Foreign ownership and productivity dynamics

In analyzing the distinctive contribution of foreign subsidiaries anddomestic firms to productivity growth in aggregate Belgian manufacturing,this paper shows that foreign ownership is an important source of firmheterogeneity affecting productivity dynamics. Foreign firms havecontributed disproportionately large to aggregate productivity growth,but more importantly reallocation processes differ significantly betweenthe groups of foreign subsidiaries and domestic firms.

The structural dynamics of output growth and inflation: some international evidence

We examine the dynamics of output growth and inflation in the US, Euro area and UK using a structural time varying coefficient VAR. There are important similarities in structural inflation dynamics across countries; output growth dynamics differ. Swings in the magnitude of inflation and output growth volatilities and persistences are accounted for by a combination of three structural shocks. Changes over time in the structure of the economy are limited and permanent variations largely absent. Changes in the volatilities of structural shocks matter.

SwissParam: a fast force field generation tool for small organic molecules.

The drug discovery process has been deeply transformed recently by the use of computational ligand-based or structure-based methods, helping the lead compounds identification and optimization, and finally the delivery of new drug candidates more quickly and at lower cost. Structure-based computational methods for drug discovery mainly involve ligand-protein docking and rapid binding free energy estimation, both of which require force field parameterization for many drug candidates. Here, we present a fast force field generation tool, called SwissParam, able to generate, for arbitrary small organic molecule, topologies, and parameters based on the Merck molecular force field, but in a functional form that is compatible with the CHARMM force field. Output files can be used with CHARMM or GROMACS. The topologies and parameters generated by SwissParam are used by the docking software EADock2 and EADock DSS to describe the small molecules to be docked, whereas the protein is described by the CHARMM force field, and allow them to reach success rates ranging from 56 to 78%. We have also developed a rapid binding free energy estimation approach, using SwissParam for ligands and CHARMM22/27 for proteins, which requires only a short minimization to reproduce the experimental binding free energy of 214 ligand-protein complexes involving 62 different proteins, with a standard error of 2.0 kcal mol(-1), and a correlation coefficient of 0.74. Together, these results demonstrate the relevance of using SwissParam topologies and parameters to describe small organic molecules in computer-aided drug design applications, together with a CHARMM22/27 description of the target protein. SwissParam is available free of charge for academic users at www.swissparam.ch.

Colonic movements in healthy subjects as monitored by a Magnet Tracking System.

The Magnet Tracking System (MTS) is a minimally-invasive technique of continuous evaluation of gastrointestinal motility. In this study, MTS was used to analyse colonic propulsive dynamics and compare the transit of a magnetic pill with that of standard radio-opaque markers. MTS monitors the progress in real time of a magnetic pill through the gut. Ten men and 10 women with regular daily bowel movements swallowed this pill and 10 radio-opaque markers at 8 pm. Five hours of recordings were conducted during 2 following mornings. Origin, direction, amplitude and velocity of movements were analysed relative to space-time plots of the pill trajectory. Abdominal radiographs were taken to compare the progress of both pill and markers. The magnetic pill lay idle for 90% of its sojourn in the colon; its total retrograde displacement accounted for only 20% of its overall movement. Analysis of these movements showed a bimodal distribution of velocities: around 1.5 and 50 cm min(-1), the latter being responsible for 2/3 of distance traversed. There were more movements overall and more mass movements in males. Net hourly forward progress was greater in the left than right colon, and greater in males. The position of the magnetic pill correlated well with the advancement of markers. MTS showed patterns and propulsion dynamics of colonic segments with as yet unmet precision. Detailed analysis of slow and fast patterns of colonic progress makes it possible to specify the motility of colonic segments, and any variability in gender. Such analysis opens up promising avenues in studies of motility disorders.

Inflation and output dynamics with firm-owned capital

We model firm-owned capital in a stochastic dynamic New-Keynesian generalequilibrium model à la Calvo. We find that this structure impliesequilibrium dynamics which are quantitatively di¤erent from the onesassociated with a benchmark case where households accumulate capital andrent it to firms. Our findings therefore stress the importance ofmodeling an investment decision at the firm level in addition to ameaningful price setting decision. Along the way we argue that the problemof modeling firm-owned capital with Calvo price-setting has not been solvedin a correct way in the previous literature.

Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis

We develop and estimate a structural model of inflation that allowsfor a fraction of firms that use a backward looking rule to setprices. The model nests the purely forward looking New KeynesianPhillips curve as a particular case. We use measures of marginalcosts as the relevant determinant of inflation, as the theorysuggests, instead of an ad-hoc output gap. Real marginal costsare a significant and quantitatively important determinant ofinflation. Backward looking price setting, while statisticallysignificant, is not quantitatively important. Thus, we concludethat the New Keynesian Phillips curve provides a good firstapproximation to the dynamics of inflation.

Moral hazard and dynamics of insider ownership stakes

In this paper, I analyze the ownership dynamics of N strategic risk-averse corporate insiders facing a moral hazard problem. A solution for the equilibrium share price and the dynamics of the aggregate insider stake is obtained in two cases: when agents can crediblycommit to an optimal ownership policy and when they cannot commit (time-consistent case). Inthe latter case, the aggregate stake gradually adjusts towards the competitive allocation. The speed of adjustment increases with N when outside investors are risk-averse, and does not depend on it when investors are risk-neutral. Predictions of the model are consistent with recent empirical findings.

Iowa's Changing Labor Force Dynamics, 2008

A look at the employment trends in Iowa for up to the next 30 years.

Job dynamics, correlated shocks and wage profiles

We generalize the Mortensen-Pissarides (1994) model of the labor marketwith a more realistic structure for the stochastic process of theshocks to the worker-firm match. In this way we can acommodate theempirical observation that hazard rates of job termination decrease andaverage wages increase with job tenure. Besides being able to fit bettersome observables of the model, the changes we introduce are nontrivialfor the analysis of policies as well.

Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises

This paper analyzes the behavior of international capital flows by foreign and domestic agents,dubbed gross capital flows, over the business cycle and during financial crises. We show thatgross capital flows are very large and volatile, especially relative to net capital flows. Whenforeigners invest in a country, domestic agents invest abroad, and vice versa. Gross capital flowsare also pro-cyclical. During expansions, foreigners invest more domestically and domesticagents invest more abroad. During crises, total gross flows collapse and there is a retrenchmentin both inflows by foreigners and outflows by domestic agents. These patterns hold for differenttypes of capital flows and crises. This evidence sheds light on the sources of fluctuations drivingcapital flows and helps discriminate among existing theories. Our findings seem consistent withcrises affecting domestic and foreign agents asymmetrically, as would be the case under thepresence of sovereign risk or asymmetric information.

The peruvian upwelling ecosystem: dynamics and interactions

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Adaptive dynamics and the implementation problem with complete information

This paper studies the equilibrating process of several implementationmechanisms using naive adaptive dynamics. We show that the dynamics convergeand are stable, for the canonical mechanism of implementation in Nash equilibrium.In this way we cast some doubt on the criticism of ``complexity'' commonlyused against this mechanism. For mechanisms that use more refined equilibrium concepts,the dynamics converge but are not stable. Some papers in the literatureon implementation with refined equilibrium concepts have claimed that themechanisms they propose are ``simple'' and implement ``everything'' (incontrast with the canonical mechanism). The fact that some of these ``simple''mechanisms have unstable equilibria suggests that these statements shouldbe interpreted with some caution.