An advanced real-time predictive maintenance framework for large scale machine systems

This thesis introduces and develops a novel real-time predictive maintenance system to estimate the machine system parameters using the motion current signature. Recently, motion current signature analysis has been addressed as an alternative to the use of sensors for monitoring internal faults of a motor. A maintenance system based upon the analysis of motion current signature avoids the need for the implementation and maintenance of expensive motion sensing technology. By developing nonlinear dynamical analysis for motion current signature, the research described in this thesis implements a novel real-time predictive maintenance system for current and future manufacturing machine systems. A crucial concept underpinning this project is that the motion current signature contains infor­mation relating to the machine system parameters and that this information can be extracted using nonlinear mapping techniques, such as neural networks. Towards this end, a proof of con­cept procedure is performed, which substantiates this concept. A simulation model, TuneLearn, is developed to simulate the large amount of training data required by the neural network ap­proach. Statistical validation and verification of the model is performed to ascertain confidence in the simulated motion current signature. Validation experiment concludes that, although, the simulation model generates a good macro-dynamical mapping of the motion current signature, it fails to accurately map the micro-dynamical structure due to the lack of knowledge regarding performance of higher order and nonlinear factors, such as backlash and compliance. Failure of the simulation model to determine the micro-dynamical structure suggests the pres­ence of nonlinearity in the motion current signature. This motivated us to perform surrogate data testing for nonlinearity in the motion current signature. Results confirm the presence of nonlinearity in the motion current signature, thereby, motivating the use of nonlinear tech­niques for further analysis. Outcomes of the experiment show that nonlinear noise reduction combined with the linear reverse algorithm offers precise machine system parameter estimation using the motion current signature for the implementation of the real-time predictive maintenance system. Finally, a linear reverse algorithm, BJEST, is developed and applied to the motion current signature to estimate the machine system parameters.

Time scale analysis for fluidized bed melt granulation I: granule-granule and granule-droplet collision rates

Fluidized bed spray granulators (FBMG) are widely used in the process industry for particle size growth; a desirable feature in many products, such as granulated food and medical tablets. In this paper, the first in a series of four discussing the rate of various microscopic events occurring in FBMG, theoretical analysis coupled with CFD simulations have been used to predict granule–granule and droplet–granule collision time scales. The granule–granule collision time scale was derived from principles of kinetic theory of granular flow (KTGF). For the droplet–granule collisions, two limiting models were derived; one is for the case of fast droplet velocity, where the granule velocity is considerable lower than that of the droplet (ballistic model) and another for the case where the droplet is traveling with a velocity similar to the velocity of the granules. The hydrodynamic parameters used in the solution of the above models were obtained from the CFD predictions for a typical spray fluidized bed system. The granule–granule collision rate within an identified spray zone was found to fall approximately within the range of 10-2–10-3 s, while the droplet–granule collision was found to be much faster, however, slowing rapidly (exponentially) when moving away from the spray nozzle tip. Such information, together with the time scale analysis of droplet solidification and spreading, discussed in part II and III of this study, are useful for probability analysis of the various event occurring during a granulation process, which then lead to be better qualitative and, in part IV, quantitative prediction of the aggregation rate.

Time resolved bit error rate analysis of a fast switching tunable laser for use in optically switched networks

We investigate the use of different direct detection modulation formats in a wavelength switched optical network. We find the minimum time it takes a tunable sampled grating distributed Bragg reflector laser to recover after switching from one wavelength channel to another for different modulation formats. The recovery time is investigated utilizing a field programmable gate array which operates as a time resolved bit error rate detector. The detector offers 93 ps resolution operating at 10.7 Gb/s and allows for all the data received to contribute to the measurement, allowing low bit error rates to be measured at high speed. The recovery times for 10.7 Gb/s non-return-to-zero on–off keyed modulation, 10.7 Gb/s differentially phase shift keyed signal and 21.4 Gb/s differentially quadrature phase shift keyed formats can be as low as 4 ns, 7 ns and 40 ns, respectively. The time resolved phase noise associated with laser settling is simultaneously measured for 21.4 Gb/s differentially quadrature phase shift keyed data and it shows that the phase noise coupled with frequency error is the primary limitation on transmitting immediately after a laser switching event.

Time-resolved Q-factor measurement and its application in performance analysis of 42.6 Gbit/s packets generated by SGDBR lasers

We demonstrate a novel time-resolved Q-factor measurement technique and demonstrate its application in the analysis of optical packet switching systems with high information spectral density. For the first time, we report the time-resolved Q-factor measurement of 42.6 Gbit/s AM-PSK and DQPSK modulated packets, which were generated by a SGDBR laser under wavelength switching. The time dependent degradation of Q-factor performance during the switching transient was analyzed and was found to be correlated with different laser switching characteristics in each case.

An analysis of users' reactions to an expert advisory system

Ignorance of user factors can be seen as one of the nontechnical issues contributing to expert system failure. An expert advisory system is built for nonexpert users; the users' acceptance is a very important factor for its successful implementation. If an expert advisory system satisfactorily represents the expertise in the domain, there still remains the question: "Will the end-users use the system?" This paper aims to address users' issues by analysing their reactions towards an expert advisory system called ADGAME, developed to help its users make better decisions in playing a competitive business game. Two experiments with ADGAME have been carried out. The research results show that, when the use of the expert advisory system is optional, there is considerable reluctance to use it, particularly amongst the "worst" potential users. Users also doubt the potential benefits in terms of improved learning and confidence in decisions made. Strangely, the one positive expectation that users had, that the system would save them time, proved not to be the case in practice; ADGAME appears to improve the users' effectiveness rather than their efficiency. © 1995.

Performing in a night-time leisure venue: a visual analysis of erotic dance

This article analyses a range of different meanings attached to images of erotic dance, with a particular focus on the 'impression management' (Goffman 1959) enacted by dancers. It presents a visual analysis of the work of a female erotic performer in a lesbian erotic dance venue in the UK. Still photographs, along with observational data and interviews, convey the complexity and skill of an erotic dancer's diverse gendered and sexualised performances. The visual data highlights the extensive 'aesthetic labour' (Nickson et al. 2001) and 'emotional labour' (Hochschild 1983) the dancer must put in to constructing her work 'self'. However, a more ambitious use of the visual is identified: the dancer's own use of images of her work. This use of the visual by dancers themselves highlights a more complex 'impression management' strategy undertaken by a dancer and brings into question the separation of 'real' and 'work' 'selves' in erotic dance. © Sociological Research Online, 1996-2012.

Independent component analysis and feature extraction of financial time series

DUE TO COPYRIGHT RESTRICTIONS ONLY AVAILABLE FOR CONSULTATION AT ASTON UNIVERSITY LIBRARY AND INFORMATION SERVICES WITH PRIOR ARRANGEMENT

Time resolved bit error rate analysis of a fast switching tunable laser for use in optically switched networks

We investigate the use of different direct detection modulation formats in a wavelength switched optical network. We find the minimum time it takes a tunable sampled grating distributed Bragg reflector laser to recover after switching from one wavelength channel to another for different modulation formats. The recovery time is investigated utilizing a field programmable gate array which operates as a time resolved bit error rate detector. The detector offers 93 ps resolution operating at 10.7 Gb/s and allows for all the data received to contribute to the measurement, allowing low bit error rates to be measured at high speed. The recovery times for 10.7 Gb/s non-return-to-zero on–off keyed modulation, 10.7 Gb/s differentially phase shift keyed signal and 21.4 Gb/s differentially quadrature phase shift keyed formats can be as low as 4 ns, 7 ns and 40 ns, respectively. The time resolved phase noise associated with laser settling is simultaneously measured for 21.4 Gb/s differentially quadrature phase shift keyed data and it shows that the phase noise coupled with frequency error is the primary limitation on transmitting immediately after a laser switching event.

Medical students' personal experience of high-stakes failure:case studies using interpretative phenomenological analysis

Abstract (provisional): Background Failing a high-stakes assessment at medical school is a major event for those who go through the experience. Students who fail at medical school may be more likely to struggle in professional practice, therefore helping individuals overcome problems and respond appropriately is important. There is little understanding about what factors influence how individuals experience failure or make sense of the failing experience in remediation. The aim of this study was to investigate the complexity surrounding the failure experience from the student’s perspective using interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA). Methods The accounts of 3 medical students who had failed final re-sit exams, were subjected to in-depth analysis using IPA methodology. IPA was used to analyse each transcript case-by-case allowing the researcher to make sense of the participant’s subjective world. The analysis process allowed the complexity surrounding the failure to be highlighted, alongside a narrative describing how students made sense of the experience. Results The circumstances surrounding students as they approached assessment and experienced failure at finals were a complex interaction between academic problems, personal problems (specifically finance and relationships), strained relationships with friends, family or faculty, and various mental health problems. Each student experienced multi-dimensional issues, each with their own individual combination of problems, but experienced remediation as a one-dimensional intervention with focus only on improving performance in written exams. What these students needed to be included was help with clinical skills, plus social and emotional support. Fear of termination of the their course was a barrier to open communication with staff. Conclusions These students’ experience of failure was complex. The experience of remediation is influenced by the way in which students make sense of failing. Generic remediation programmes may fail to meet the needs of students for whom personal, social and mental health issues are a part of the picture.

Optimization of Advertising Resources over Time: A Strategic Analysis

AMS subject classification: 90B60, 90B50, 90A80.

Sensitivity Analysis of the Risk of Forecasting for Autoregressive Time Series with Missing Values

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62M20, 62M10, 62-07.

Global variations and time trends in the prevalence of childhood myopia, a systematic review and quantitative meta-analysis:implications for aetiology and early prevention

The aim of this review was to quantify the global variation in childhood myopia prevalence over time taking account of demographic and study design factors. A systematic review identified population-based surveys with estimates of childhood myopia prevalence published by February 2015. Multilevel binomial logistic regression of log odds of myopia was used to examine the association with age, gender, urban versus rural setting and survey year, among populations of different ethnic origins, adjusting for study design factors. 143 published articles (42 countries, 374 349 subjects aged 1- 18 years, 74 847 myopia cases) were included. Increase in myopia prevalence with age varied by ethnicity. East Asians showed the highest prevalence, reaching 69% (95% credible intervals (CrI) 61% to 77%) at 15 years of age (86% among Singaporean-Chinese). Blacks in Africa had the lowest prevalence; 5.5% at 15 years (95% CrI 3% to 9%). Time trends in myopia prevalence over the last decade were small in whites, increased by 23% in East Asians, with a weaker increase among South Asians. Children from urban environments have 2.6 times the odds of myopia compared with those from rural environments. In whites and East Asians sex differences emerge at about 9 years of age; by late adolescence girls are twice as likely as boys to be myopic. Marked ethnic differences in age-specific prevalence of myopia exist. Rapid increases in myopia prevalence over time, particularly in East Asians, combined with a universally higher risk of myopia in urban settings, suggest that environmental factors play an important role in myopia development, which may offer scope for prevention.

Brillouin optical time-domain analysis assisted by second-order Raman amplification

We propose and experimentally demonstrate a new method to extend the range of Brillouin optical time domain analysis (BOTDA) systems. It exploits the virtual transparency created by second-order Raman pumping in optical fibers. The idea is theoretically analyzed and experimentally demonstrated in a 50 km fiber. By working close to transparency, we also show that the measurement length of the BOTDA can be increased up to 100 km with 2 meter resolution. We envisage extensions of this technique to measurement lengths well beyond this value, as long as the issue of relative intensity noise (RIN) of the primary Raman pump can be avoided. © 2010 Optical Society of America.

Az 1990-2000 között benyújtott magyar szabadalmi bejelentések környezeti hatásának idősoros elemzése (Time series analysis of environmental effects of submitted Hungarian patents between 1990 and 2000)

A szerző e kutatás keretében az 1990–2000 közötti időszak magyar intézményi és egyéni szabadalmi bejelentők, illetve jogosultak („szabadalmasok”) szabadalmainak környezeti hatását vizsgálja. Konkrétan az ebben az időszakban a Magyar Szabadalmi Hivatalnál benyújtott szabadalmi bejelentésekből elfogadott szabadalmakat tanulmányozza, a PIPACS adatbázisban található szabadalmi leírások alapján. A pozitív környezeti hatású szabadalmak száma, valamint az összes szabadalomhoz viszonyított aránya alapján von le következtetéseket a magyar környezeti innovációs tevékenységről, és ennek potenciális magyar környezeti hatásáról. A pozitív környezeti hatású szabadalmak összes megadott szabadalomhoz viszonyított aránya az időszakban 92%-os szignifikanciaszinten növekszik. _______

An analysis of the on-time graduation rate in the two-year program at National Taipei Institute of Technology in Taiwan

Taiwan's technical vocational educational system includes three levels: (1) institutes of technology (two and four year programs), (2) junior colleges (two, three and five year programs), and (3) senior vocational schools. Two-year junior colleges enroll their students through two channels: (1) based on results of the Particular Screening Entrance Examination (PSEE), (2) based on the Joint College Entrance Examination (JCEE). The PSEE has two categories: Category I includes on-time graduates with excellent performance, which means that they are within the top ten of their classes; Category II students include award-winning students in talent contests who have achieved a minimum grade point average of 75%. The JCEE is a regular entrance examination given to any senior vocation school graduate.^ Basic courses have a great impact on the students' academic performance. The purpose of the study was to focus on the effectiveness of teaching mathematics in two-year junior colleges and to analyze and correlate the results of two-year junior college students' performance in calculus and on-time graduation. The target group consisted of 521 students enrolled at National Taipei Institute of Technology in 1993.^ Calculus is a very important course for engineering majors in two-year junior colleges and has a great impact on the students' academic performance. This retrospective study showed that there was a correlation between students' performance in calculus and on-time graduation after two years of study.^ The conclusions of the study urge the Ministry of Education to reform two-year junior college curriculum standards to emphasize basic rudimentary courses. It is recommended that engineering majors receive three hours of calculus per week as the current requirement of only two hours per week is inadequate. The future job market will require a technologically advanced labor force that can be trained in a higher education system. More channels of higher education for two-year junior college graduates should be made available for those wishing to pursue bachelor degrees. Additional work in calculus will not only enhance the opportunities for two-year junior college graduates to continue their pursuit of an advanced academic degree, but also serve them well as they seek career advancement. ^