Valuation methods for resident funded retirement villages in Australia : a practitioner's perspective

Designed for independent living, retirement villages provide either detached or semi-detached residential dwellings with car parking and small private yards. Retirement village developments usually include a mix of independent living units (ILUs) and serviced apartments (SAs) with community facilities providing a shared congregational area for village activities and socialising. Retirement Village assets differ from traditional residential assets due to their operation in accordance with statutory legislation. In Australia, each State and Territory has its own Retirement Village Act and Regulations. In essence, the village operator provides the land and buildings to the residents who pay an amount on entry for the right of occupation. On departure from the units an agreed proportion of either the original purchase price or the sale price is paid to the outgoing resident. The market value of the operator’s interest in the Retirement Village is therefore based upon the estimated future income from Deferred Management Fees and Capital Gain upon roll-over receivable by the operator in accordance with the respective residency agreements. Given the lumpiness of these payments, there is general acceptance that the most appropriate approach to valuation is through Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis. There is however inconsistency between valuers across Australia in how they undertake their DCF analysis, leading to differences in reported values and subsequent confusion among users of valuation services. To give guidance to valuers and enhance confidence from users of valuation services this paper investigates the five major elements of discounted cash flow methodology, namely cash flows, escalation factors, holding period, terminal value and discount rate. Whilst there is dissatisfaction with the financial structuring of the DMF in residency agreements, as long as there are future financial returns receivable by the Village owner/operator, then DCF will continue to be the most appropriate valuation methodology for resident funded retirement villages.

Microscopic modelling of freeway operations

Freeways are divided roadways designed to facilitate the uninterrupted movement of motor vehicles. However, many freeways now experience demand flows in excess of capacity, leading to recurrent congestion. The Highway Capacity Manual (TRB, 1994) uses empirical macroscopic relationships between speed, flow and density to quantify freeway operations and performance. Capacity may be predicted as the maximum uncongested flow achievable. Although they are effective tools for design and analysis, macroscopic models lack an understanding of the nature of processes taking place in the system. Szwed and Smith (1972, 1974) and Makigami and Matsuo (1990) have shown that microscopic modelling is also applicable to freeway operations. Such models facilitate an understanding of the processes whilst providing for the assessment of performance, through measures of capacity and delay. However, these models are limited to only a few circumstances. The aim of this study was to produce more comprehensive and practical microscopic models. These models were required to accurately portray the mechanisms of freeway operations at the specific locations under consideration. The models needed to be able to be calibrated using data acquired at these locations. The output of the models needed to be able to be validated with data acquired at these sites. Therefore, the outputs should be truly descriptive of the performance of the facility. A theoretical basis needed to underlie the form of these models, rather than empiricism, which is the case for the macroscopic models currently used. And the models needed to be adaptable to variable operating conditions, so that they may be applied, where possible, to other similar systems and facilities. It was not possible to produce a stand-alone model which is applicable to all facilities and locations, in this single study, however the scene has been set for the application of the models to a much broader range of operating conditions. Opportunities for further development of the models were identified, and procedures provided for the calibration and validation of the models to a wide range of conditions. The models developed, do however, have limitations in their applicability. Only uncongested operations were studied and represented. Driver behaviour in Brisbane was applied to the models. Different mechanisms are likely in other locations due to variability in road rules and driving cultures. Not all manoeuvres evident were modelled. Some unusual manoeuvres were considered unwarranted to model. However the models developed contain the principal processes of freeway operations, merging and lane changing. Gap acceptance theory was applied to these critical operations to assess freeway performance. Gap acceptance theory was found to be applicable to merging, however the major stream, the kerb lane traffic, exercises only a limited priority over the minor stream, the on-ramp traffic. Theory was established to account for this activity. Kerb lane drivers were also found to change to the median lane where possible, to assist coincident mergers. The net limited priority model accounts for this by predicting a reduced major stream flow rate, which excludes lane changers. Cowan's M3 model as calibrated for both streams. On-ramp and total upstream flow are required as input. Relationships between proportion of headways greater than 1 s and flow differed for on-ramps where traffic leaves signalised intersections and unsignalised intersections. Constant departure onramp metering was also modelled. Minimum follow-on times of 1 to 1.2 s were calibrated. Critical gaps were shown to lie between the minimum follow-on time, and the sum of the minimum follow-on time and the 1 s minimum headway. Limited priority capacity and other boundary relationships were established by Troutbeck (1995). The minimum average minor stream delay and corresponding proportion of drivers delayed were quantified theoretically in this study. A simulation model was constructed to predict intermediate minor and major stream delays across all minor and major stream flows. Pseudo-empirical relationships were established to predict average delays. Major stream average delays are limited to 0.5 s, insignificant compared with minor stream delay, which reach infinity at capacity. Minor stream delays were shown to be less when unsignalised intersections are located upstream of on-ramps than signalised intersections, and less still when ramp metering is installed. Smaller delays correspond to improved merge area performance. A more tangible performance measure, the distribution of distances required to merge, was established by including design speeds. This distribution can be measured to validate the model. Merging probabilities can be predicted for given taper lengths, a most useful performance measure. This model was also shown to be applicable to lane changing. Tolerable limits to merging probabilities require calibration. From these, practical capacities can be estimated. Further calibration is required of traffic inputs, critical gap and minimum follow-on time, for both merging and lane changing. A general relationship to predict proportion of drivers delayed requires development. These models can then be used to complement existing macroscopic models to assess performance, and provide further insight into the nature of operations.

Capturing organisational innovation in construction project procurement

Management of change in construction organisations to capture internal knowledge and maximise innovation is central to construction process re-engineering. Recent international trends toward privatisation and outsourcing of many government functions has seen wholesale changes to the role of government departments. In Brisbane, Australia, the Port of Brisbane Corporation has responsibilities for development and maintenance of all port and harbour facilities in the Brisbane region. The PBC is an acknowledged leader in encouraging internal technical development. Yet 20 years ago, this organisation operated as a small division within a large and bureaucratic Queensland Government public service department. This paper reviews construction project procurement strategies for the port’s civil and structural facilities since a separate organisational entity with responsibilities for Port of Brisbane was formed in 1976. The Port of Brisbane Corporation serves as an initial case study setting for a larger research project studying innovative practices in the context of the trend towards corporatising and privatising public sector organisations.

Resident-funded retirement village valuations : complications with the application of the DCF

Retirement village assets are different from traditional residential assets due to their operation in accordance with statutory legislation. Designed for independent living, retirement villages provide either detached or semi-detached residential dwellings with car parking and small private yards with community facilities providing a shared congregational area for village activities and socialising. In essence, the village operator provides the land and buildings to the residents who pay an amount on entry for the right of occupation. On departure from the units an agreed proportion of either the original purchase price or the sale price is paid to the outgoing resident. As ongoing levies are typically offset by ongoing operational expenses the market value of the operator's interest in the retirement village is therefore predominantly based upon the estimated future income from deferred management fees and capital gain upon roll-over receivable by the operator in accordance with the respective residency agreements. Given the lumpiness of these payments, there is general acceptance that the most appropriate approach to valuation is through discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. There is however inconsistency between valuers across Australia in how they undertake their DCF analysis, leading to differences in reported values and subsequent confusion among users of valuation services. To give guidance to valuers and enhance confidence from users of valuation services this paper investigates the five major elements of DCF methodology, namely cash flows, escalation factors, holding period, terminal value and discount rate.

CRE workshop part I : comprehending the context

CRE (Corporate Real Estate) decisions should not simply deal with the management of individual facilities, but should especially be concerned with the relationships that a facility has with the corporate business strategy and with the larger real estate markets. Both the practice and the research of CRE management have historically tended to emphasize real estate issues and ignore the corporation’s business issues, causing real estate strategies to be disconnected from the goal and priorities of the corporation’s senior management. With regard to office cycles, a large number of econometric models have been proposed during the last 20 years. However, evidence from historical data and previous research in the field of real estate forecasting seem to agree only on one thing: the existence of interconnected property cycles that are concentrated on vacancy rates (demand). Vacancy also represents the linkage between the inadequacy of existing CRE strategies and the inability of existing econometric models to correctly forecast office rent cycles. Business cycles, across different industry sectors, have decreased from 5-7 years to 1-3 years today, yet corporations are still entering into leases of 5-10 years, causing hidden vacancy levels to rise. Possibly, once CRE strategies are totally in tune with the overall business, hidden vacancy will fade away providing forecasters with better quality data. The aim of this paper is not to investigate whether and when the supply-side will eventually evolve to provide flexible occupancy arrangements to accommodate corporate agility requirements, but rather to propose a general framework for corporations to improve the decision making process of their CRE executives, while emphasizing the importance of understanding the context as a precondition to effective real estate involvements.

Check-in processing : simulation of passengers with advanced traits

In order to tackle the growth of air travelers in airports worldwide, it is important to simulate and understand passenger flows to predict future capacity constraints and levels of service. We discuss the ability of agent-based models to understand complicated pedestrian movement in built environments. In this paper we propose advanced passenger traits to enable more detailed modelling of behaviors in terminal buildings, particularly in the departure hall around the check-in facilities. To demonstrate the concepts, we perform a series of passenger agent simulations in a virtual airport terminal. In doing so, we generate a spatial distribution of passengers within the departure hall to ancillary facilities such as cafes, information kiosks and phone booths as well as common check-in facilities, and observe the effects this has on passenger check-in and departure hall dwell times, and facility utilization.

Beware of geeks bearing gifts? Online latent and untapped outlets for farmers' markets in South East Wales

This chapter sets out to identify related issues surrounding the use of Information and Computer Technology (ICT) in developing relationships between local food producers and consumers (both individuals and businesses). Three surveys were conducted in South- East Wales to consider the overlapping issues. The first concerned the role of ICT in relationships between farmers’ market (FMs) vendors and their traditional customers. The second survey examined potential new markets for farmers in the propensity of restaurants and hotels to buy locally, the types and sources of purchases made and the modes of advertising of these businesses. The final survey focused on the potential to expand local web- based selling of farmers’ produce in the future, by examining the potential market of high ICT- use small hotels. Despite the development of tailored ICT facilities, farmers’ market vendors and current individual customers are antipathetic to them. In addition, whilst there is a desire for more local produce particularly amongst independent local restaurants and hotels, this has not been capitalised upon and there is much work to be done even amongst high ICT-use small hotels, to expand the range and scope of farmers’ markets. This raises the need for creation and utilisation of enhanced logistics, payment and marketing management capacity available through a web- based presence, linked to promotion of FMs in business- to- business (B2B) links with local restaurants and hotels. This linked quantitative research highlights the potential value in substantial development of both web portals and supporting logistics to exploit this potential in the future.

What the experts think : fast bowling expertise acquisition and talent development

For applied sport scientists charged with developing talented performers an essential requirement is to identify components contributing to the development and maintenance of expertise. Previous qualitative analysis has revealed several psychological (e.g., mental focus, goal-setting and selfevaluation), socio-cultural (e.g. community and family support, cultural influence), physical (e.g., strength, height) and environmental (e.g., access to facilities and climate) constraints on successful Olympian development (Abbott et al., 2005). Open-ended interviews with expert athletes and/or expert coaches have been used to reveal competencies of elite performers to derive factors associated with success (Durand-Bush et al., 2002). However, the influence of these factors is likely to be sport-specific due to different task constraints and the changing nature of the performer-environment relationship through practice, coaching and competing (Vaeyens et al., 2008). So far, only one study on expertise acquisition in cricket has been undertaken. Weissensteiner, et al. (2009) found that development of expertise in cricket batting in Australia may be facilitated by early unstructured play (i.e. ‘backyard cricket’), a wide range of sport experience during development, and early exposure to playing with seniors.

Archiving nature’s heartbeat using smart phones

The impact of urban development and climate change has created the impetus to monitor changes in the environment, particularly, the behaviour, habitat and movement of fauna species. The aim of this chapter is to present the design and development of a sensor network based on smart phones to automatically collect and analyse acoustic and visual data for environmental monitoring purposes. Due to the communication and sophisticated programming facilities offered by smart phones, software tools can be developed to allow data to be collected, partially processed and sent to a remote server over the network for storage and further processing. This sensor network which employs a client-server architecture has been deployed in three applications: monitoring a rare bird species near Brisbane Airport, study of koalas behaviour at St Bees Island, and detection of fruit flies. The users of this system include scientists (e.g. ecologists, ornithologists, computer scientists) and community groups participating in data collection or reporting on the environment (e.g. students, bird watchers). The chapter focuses on the following aspects of our research: issues involved in using smart phones as sensors; the overall framework for data acquisition, data quality control, data management and analysis; current and future applications of the smart phone-based sensor network, and our future research directions.

Super-orbital re-entry in Australia : laboratory measurement, simulation and flight observation

There are large uncertainties in the aerothermodynamic modelling of super-orbital re-entry which impact the design of spacecraft thermal protection systems (TPS). Aspects of the thermal environment of super-orbital re-entry flows can be simulated in the laboratory using arc- and plasma jet facilities and these devices are regularly used for TPS certification work [5]. Another laboratory device which is capable of simulating certain critical features of both the aero and thermal environment of super-orbital re-entry is the expansion tube, and three such facilities have been operating at the University of Queensland in recent years[10]. Despite some success, wind tunnel tests do not achieve full simulation, however, a virtually complete physical simulation of particular re-entry conditions can be obtained from dedicated flight testing, and the Apollo era FIRE II flight experiment [2] is the premier example which still forms an important benchmark for modern simulations. Dedicated super-orbital flight testing is generally considered too expensive today, and there is a reluctance to incorporate substantial instrumentation for aerothermal diagnostics into existing missions since it may compromise primary mission objectives. An alternative approach to on-board flight measurements, with demonstrated success particularly in the ‘Stardust’ sample return mission, is remote observation of spectral emissions from the capsule and shock layer [8]. JAXA’s ‘Hayabusa’ sample return capsule provides a recent super-orbital reentry example through which we illustrate contributions in three areas: (1) physical simulation of super-orbital re-entry conditions in the laboratory; (2) computational simulation of such flows; and (3) remote acquisition of optical emissions from a super-orbital re entry event.

The desire for the construction industry to move towards lifecycle carbon emissions analysis

A significant reduction in carbon emissions is a global mission and the construction industry has an indispensable role to play as a major carbon dioxide (CO2) generator. Over the years, various building environmental assessment (BEA) models and concepts have been developed to promote environmentally responsible design and construction. However, limited attention has been placed on assessing and benchmarking the carbon emitted throughout the lifecycle of building facilities. This situation could undermine the construction industry’s potential to reduce its dependence on raw materials, recognise the negative impacts of producing new materials, and intensify the recycle and reuse process. In this paper, current BEA approaches adopted by the construction industry are first introduced. The focus of these models and concepts is then examined. Following a brief review of lifecycle analysis, the boundary in which a lifecycle carbon emission analysis should be set for a construction project is identified. The paper concludes by highlighting the potential barriers of applying lifecycle carbon emissions analysis in the construction industry. It is proposed that lifecycle carbon emission analysis can be integrated with existing BEA models to provide a more comprehensive and accurate evaluation on the cradle-to-grave environmental performance of a construction facility. In doing so, this can assist owners and clients to identify the optimum solution to maximise emissions reduction opportunities.

Engineering sustainable solutions program : critical literacies for engineers portfolio

Purpose While a number of universities in Australia have embraced concepts such as project/problem‐based learning and design of innovative learning environments for engineering education, there has been a lack of national guidance on including sustainability as a “critical literacy” into all engineering streams. This paper was presented at the 2004 International Conference on Engineering Education in Sustainable Development (EESD) in Barcelona, Spain, outlining a current initiative that is seeking to address the “critical literacy” dilemma. Design/methodology/approach The paper presents the positive steps taken by Australia's peak engineering body, the Institution of Engineers Australia (EA), in considering accreditation requirements for university engineering courses and its responsibility to ensure the inclusion of sustainability education material. It then describes a current initiative called the “Engineering Sustainable Solutions Program – Critical Literacies for Engineers Portfolio” (ESSP‐CL), which is being developed by The Natural Edge Project (TNEP) in partnership with EA and Unesco. Findings Content for the module was gathered from around the world, drawing on research from the publication The Natural Advantage of Nations: Business Opportunities, Innovation, and Governance in the Twenty‐first Century. Parts of the first draft of the ESSP‐CL have been trialled at Griffith University, Queensland, Australia with first year environmental engineering students, in May 2004. Further trials are now proceeding with a number of other universities and organisations nationally and internationally. Practical implications It is intended that ESSP‐CL will be a valuable resource to universities, professional development activities or other education facilities nationally and internationally. Originality/value This paper fulfils an identified information/resources need.

An ecological footprint for an early learning centre : identifying opportunities for early childhood sustainability education through interdisciplinary research

In this study, engineers and educators worked together to adapt and apply the ecological footprint (EF) methodology to an early learning centre in Brisbane, Australia. Results were analysed to determine how environmental impact can be reduced at the study site and more generally across early childhood settings. It was found that food, transport and energy consumption had the largest impact on the centre’s overall footprint. In transport and energy, early childhood centres can reduce their impact through infrastructure and cultural change, in association with changed curriculum strategies. Building design, the type of energy purchased and appliance usage can all be modified to reduce the energy footprint. The transport footprint can be reduced through more families using active and public transport, which can be encouraged by providing information, support and facilities and appropriate siting of new centres. Introducing the concept of ecological footprint in early childhood education may be an effective way to educate children, staff and parents on the links between the food they eat, land usage and environmental impact. This study responds directly to the call in this journal for research focused on early childhood education and for more to be made of interdisciplinary research opportunities.

An epistemic community as influencer and implementer in local government accounting in Australia

This paper adopts an epistemic community framework to explicate the dual role of epistemic communities as influencers of accounting policy within regulatory space and as implementers who effect change within the domain of accounting. The context is the adoption and implementation of fair value accounting within local government in New South Wales (NSW). The roles and functions of Australian local government are extensive, and include the development and maintenance of infrastructure, provision of recreational facilities, certain health and community services, buildings, cultural facilities, and in some cases, water and sewerage (Australian Local Government Association, 2009). The NSW state Department of Local Government (DLG) is responsible for legislation and policy development to ensure that local councils are able to deliver ‘quality services to their communities in a sustainable manner’ (DLG, 2008c). These local councils receive revenue from various sources including property rates, government grants and user-pays service provision. In July 2006 the DLG issued Circular 06-453 to councils (DLG, 2006c), mandating the staged adoption of fair value measurement of infrastructure assets. This directive followed the policy of NSW State Treasury (NSW Treasury, 2007),4 and an independent inquiry into the financial sustainability of local councils (LGSA, 2006). It was an attempt to resolve the inconsistency in public sector asset valuation in NSW Local Governments, and to provide greater usefulness and comparability of financial statements.5 The focus of this study is the mobilization of accounting change by the DLG within this wider political context. When a regulatory problem arises, those with political power seek advice from professionals with relevant skill and expertise (Potter, 2005). This paper explores the way in which professionals diffuse accounting ‘problems’ and the associated accounting solutions ‘across time and space’ (Potter, 2005, p. 277). The DLG’s fair value accounting policy emanated from a ‘regulatory space’ (Hancher and Moran, 1989)6 as a result of negotiations between many parties, including accounting and finance professionals. Operating within the local government sector, these professionals were identified by the DLG as being capable of providing helpful input. They were also responsible for the implementation of the new olicy within local councils. Accordingly they have been dentified as an pistemic community with the ability to ranslate regulatory power by changing he domain of ccounting (Potter, 2005, p. 278).7 The paper is organised as follows. The background to the LG’s decision to require the introduction of fair value accounting for infrastructure assets is explored. Following this, the method of the study is described, and the epistemic community framework outlined. In the next sections, evidence of the influencing and implementing roles of epistemic groups is provided. Finally, conclusions are drawn about the significance of these groups both within regulatory space in developing accounting regulation, and in embedding change within the domain of accounting.

A Cochrane review on the effects of end-of-life care pathways : do they improve patient outcomes?

Clinical pathways for end-of-life care management are used widely around the world and have been regarded as the gold standard. The aim of this review was to assess the effects of end-of-life care pathways (EOLCP), compared with usual care (no pathway) or with care guided by a different end-of-life care pathway, across all healthcare settings (e.g. hospitals, residential aged care facilities, community). We searched the Cochrane Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), the Pain, Palliative and Supportive Care Review group specialised register, MEDLINE, EMBASE, review articles and reference lists of relevant articles. The search was carried out in September 2009. All randomised controlled trials (RCTs), quasi-randomised trials or high quality controlled before and after studies comparing use versus non-use of an EOLCP in caring for the dying were considered for inclusion. The search identified 920 potentially relevant titles, but no studies met criteria for inclusion in the review. Without further available evidence, recommendations for the use of end-of-life pathways in caring for the dying cannot be made. There are now recent concerns regarding the big scale roll-out of EOLCP despite the lack of evidence, nurses should report any safety concerns or adverse effects associated with such pathways.