JC virus-specific immune responses in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 patients with progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy

Progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) is a frequently fatal disease caused by uncontrolled polyomavirus JC (JCV) in severely immunodeficient patients. We investigated the JCV-specific cellular and humoral immunity in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. We identified PML cases (n = 29), as well as three matched controls per case (n = 87), with prospectively cryopreserved peripheral blood mononuclear cells and plasma at diagnosis. Nested controls were matched according to age, gender, CD4(+) T-cell count, and decline. Survivors (n = 18) were defined as being alive for >1 year after diagnosis. Using gamma interferon enzyme-linked immunospot assays, we found that JCV-specific T-cell responses were lower in nonsurvivors than in their matched controls (P = 0.08), which was highly significant for laboratory- and histologically confirmed PML cases (P = 0.004). No difference was found between PML survivors and controls or for cytomegalovirus-specific T-cell responses. PML survivors showed significant increases in JCV-specific T cells (P = 0.04) and immunoglobulin G (IgG) responses (P = 0.005). IgG responses in survivors were positively correlated with CD4(+) T-cell counts (P = 0.049) and negatively with human immunodeficiency virus RNA loads (P = 0.03). We conclude that PML nonsurvivors had selectively impaired JCV-specific T-cell responses compared to CD4(+) T-cell-matched controls and failed to mount JCV-specific antibody responses. JCV-specific T-cell and IgG responses may serve as prognostic markers for patients at risk.

Self-reported alcohol consumption and its association with adherence and outcome of antiretroviral therapy in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: Alcohol consumption leading to morbidity and mortality affects HIV-infected individuals. Here, we aimed to study self-reported alcohol consumption and to determine its association with adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) and HIV surrogate markers. METHODS: Cross-sectional data on daily alcohol consumption from August 2005 to August 2007 were analysed and categorized according to the World Health Organization definition (light, moderate or severe health risk). Multivariate logistic regression models and Pearson's chi(2) statistics were used to test the influence of alcohol use on endpoints. RESULTS: Of 6,323 individuals, 52.3% consumed alcohol less than once a week in the past 6 months. Alcohol intake was deemed light in 39.9%, moderate in 5.0% and severe in 2.8%. Higher alcohol consumption was significantly associated with older age, less education, injection drug use, being in a drug maintenance programme, psychiatric treatment, hepatitis C virus coinfection and with a longer time since diagnosis of HIV. Lower alcohol consumption was found in males, non-Caucasians, individuals currently on ART and those with more ART experience. In patients on ART (n=4,519), missed doses and alcohol consumption were positively correlated (P<0.001). Severe alcohol consumers, who were pretreated with ART, were more often off treatment despite having CD4+ T-cell count <200 cells/microl; however, severe alcohol consumption per se did not delay starting ART. In treated individuals, alcohol consumption was not associated with worse HIV surrogate markers. CONCLUSIONS: Higher alcohol consumption in HIV-infected individuals was associated with several psychosocial and demographic factors, non-adherence to ART and, in pretreated individuals, being off treatment despite low CD4+ T-cell counts.

Long-term trends of HIV type 1 drug resistance prevalence among antiretroviral treatment-experienced patients in Switzerland

BACKGROUND:Accurate quantification of the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) drug resistance in patients who are receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) is difficult, and results from previous studies vary. We attempted to assess the prevalence and dynamics of resistance in a highly representative patient cohort from Switzerland. METHODS:On the basis of genotypic resistance test results and clinical data, we grouped patients according to their risk of harboring resistant viruses. Estimates of resistance prevalence were calculated on the basis of either the proportion of individuals with a virologic failure or confirmed drug resistance (lower estimate) or the frequency-weighted average of risk group-specific probabilities for the presence of drug resistance mutations (upper estimate). RESULTS:Lower and upper estimates of drug resistance prevalence in 8064 ART-exposed patients were 50% and 57% in 1999 and 37% and 45% in 2007, respectively. This decrease was driven by 2 mechanisms: loss to follow-up or death of high-risk patients exposed to mono- or dual-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor therapy (lower estimates range from 72% to 75%) and continued enrollment of low-risk patients who were taking combination ART containing boosted protease inhibitors or nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors as first-line therapy (lower estimates range from 7% to 12%). A subset of 4184 participants (52%) had >or= 1 study visit per year during 2002-2007. In this subset, lower and upper estimates increased from 45% to 49% and from 52% to 55%, respectively. Yearly increases in prevalence were becoming smaller in later years. CONCLUSIONS:Contrary to earlier predictions, in situations of free access to drugs, close monitoring, and rapid introduction of new potent therapies, the emergence of drug-resistant viruses can be minimized at the population level. Moreover, this study demonstrates the necessity of interpreting time trends in the context of evolving cohort populations.

Hierarchical modeling gave plausible estimates of associations between metabolic syndrome and components of antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVE: Hierarchical modeling has been proposed as a solution to the multiple exposure problem. We estimate associations between metabolic syndrome and different components of antiretroviral therapy using both conventional and hierarchical models. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We use discrete time survival analysis to estimate the association between metabolic syndrome and cumulative exposure to 16 antiretrovirals from four drug classes. We fit a hierarchical model where the drug class provides a prior model of the association between metabolic syndrome and exposure to each antiretroviral. RESULTS: One thousand two hundred and eighteen patients were followed for a median of 27 months, with 242 cases of metabolic syndrome (20%) at a rate of 7.5 cases per 100 patient years. Metabolic syndrome was more likely to develop in patients exposed to stavudine, but was less likely to develop in those exposed to atazanavir. The estimate for exposure to atazanavir increased from hazard ratio of 0.06 per 6 months' use in the conventional model to 0.37 in the hierarchical model (or from 0.57 to 0.81 when using spline-based covariate adjustment). CONCLUSION: These results are consistent with trials that show the disadvantage of stavudine and advantage of atazanavir relative to other drugs in their respective classes. The hierarchical model gave more plausible results than the equivalent conventional model.

Opera seria nördlich der Alpen – venezianische Einflüsse auf das Musikleben am Dresdner Hof um die Mitte des 18. Jahrhunderts

La cultura musicale delle corti dell'Europa centrale nel '700 viene contrassegnata dal successo dell' "Opera seria", un genere musicale e drammatico che nonostante le sue origini italiane si espande e si diffonde rapidamente ovunque in Europa adattandosi da caso a caso ad esigenze e condizioni locali. La relazione prende in esame l'attività della principessa elettrice della Sassonia Maria Antonia Walpurgis di Baviera (1724 – 1780) che a partire dal suo arrivo a Dresda nel 1747 prende una parte assai attiva nella vita musicale della corte che occupava uno dei primi posti in Europa. Grazie alla sua dotazione musicale Maria Antonia stringe rapporti di lavoro con alcuni dei più importanti musicisti d'epoca che erano i suoi maestri e insegnanti, soprattutto con Johann Adolf Hasse formatosi a Venezia che dal 1730 era capo musicista della corte sassone. Hasse che soltanto ora viene riscoperto come compositore assistette la principessa nell'elaborazione delle sue "Opere serie". Essenziali anche i rapporti con Pietro Metastasio che oltre ad essere il più famoso librettista dell'Opera seria di allora era anche legato all'ambiente degli Arcadi che acclamarono socia onoraria la principessa a causa delle sue opere serie "Talestri e Il Trionfo della fedeltà" che segnano l'apice della sua attività da compositrice musicale. Viene sottolineato il ruolo importante della ricerca per il "vero buon gusto“e la preferenza per la semplicità della musica antica intesa come musica italiana in contrasto con la musica di gusto francese. Dopo il 1766 le opere della principessa segnate dall'influenza che ebbe la tradizione veneziana sulla vita musicale alla corte di Dresda venne criticata in Germania per il suo gusto italiano.

Bassano – Venedig – Rom: "Il dolce intaglio di Volpato"

L'incisore Giovanni Volpato (1735 ca.-1803), allievo di Francesco Bartolozzi a Venezia e trasferitosi nel 1770 a Roma era un incisore che serviva due campi tra di loro molto diversi – da una parte era un'abile e fertile incisore di un genere di stampe che attingeva al genere popolare e al paesaggio di gusto veneziano ma la sua attività maggiormente notata si riferiva al repertorio classico di tradizione romano – riproducendo le opere di Raffaello, Michelangelo, degli Carracci e della loro scuola. La maggior fama del Volpato deriva soprattutto dalle 46 tavole che trasse dalle Logge di Raffaello pubblicate tra 1776 e 1777 delle quali esistono anche esemplari colorati a mano e che hanno profondamente influenzato il gusto della decorazione degli interni in tutta l'Europa oltre il 1800. Alessandro Verri nel 1776 scrisse a suo fratello Pietro a proposito di questa pubblicazione: "Dopo che si sono stampate in Roma le Loggie del Vaticano tutto ha cambiato di gusto. Le carrozze, i muri, gli intagli, le argenterie hanno preso gli ornamenti di quel fonte perenne di ogni varietà." La collaborazione con Gavin Hamilton per la Scholae Italia Picturae e le riproduzioni della Galleria Farnese e della Cappella Sistina come anche del Museo Pio Clementino e delle statue antiche in un repertorio per artisti rivelano il suo interesse per la formazione artistica. In un certo senso si può dire che Volpato era la contropparte di Piranesi e che ambedue effettuavano una precisa e ben meditata divisione dei compiti e di generi e interessi che comunque era al servizio del pubblico turistico che in numero crescente prendeva Roma come meta di viaggi e d'istruzione culturale e si serviva delle incisioni di facile portata di mano. L'importanza delle incisioni come merce di facile trasporto e diffusione è stata per la prima volta riconosciuta da Luigi Lanzi quando definì il Settecento "secolo di rame".

Treatment-naive individuals are the major source of transmitted HIV-1 drug resistance in men who have sex with men in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

BACKGROUND Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) transmitted drug resistance (TDR) can compromise antiretroviral therapy (ART) and thus represents an important public health concern. Typically, sources of TDR remain unknown, but they can be characterized with molecular epidemiologic approaches. We used the highly representative Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) and linked drug resistance database (SHCS-DRDB) to analyze sources of TDR. METHODS ART-naive men who have sex with men with infection date estimates between 1996 and 2009 were chosen for surveillance of TDR in HIV-1 subtype B (N = 1674), as the SHCS-DRDB contains pre-ART genotypic resistance tests for >69% of this surveillance population. A phylogeny was inferred using pol sequences from surveillance patients and all subtype B sequences from the SHCS-DRDB (6934 additional patients). Potential sources of TDR were identified based on phylogenetic clustering, shared resistance mutations, genetic distance, and estimated infection dates. RESULTS One hundred forty of 1674 (8.4%) surveillance patients carried virus with TDR; 86 of 140 (61.4%) were assigned to clusters. Potential sources of TDR were found for 50 of 86 (58.1%) of these patients. ART-naive patients constitute 56 of 66 (84.8%) potential sources and were significantly overrepresented among sources (odds ratio, 6.43 [95% confidence interval, 3.22-12.82]; P < .001). Particularly large transmission clusters were observed for the L90M mutation, and the spread of L90M continued even after the near cessation of antiretroviral use selecting for that mutation. Three clusters showed evidence of reversion of K103N or T215Y/F. CONCLUSIONS Many individuals harboring viral TDR belonged to transmission clusters with other Swiss patients, indicating substantial domestic transmission of TDR in Switzerland. Most TDR in clusters could be linked to sources, indicating good surveillance of TDR in the SHCS-DRDB. Most TDR sources were ART naive. This, and the presence of long TDR transmission chains, suggests that resistance mutations are frequently transmitted among untreated individuals, highlighting the importance of early diagnosis and treatment.

Clustering of HCV coinfections on HIV phylogeny indicates domestic and sexual transmission of HCV

BACKGROUND: HCV coinfection remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality among HIV-infected individuals and its incidence has increased dramatically in HIV-infected men who have sex with men(MSM). METHODS: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) coinfection in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study(SHCS) was studied by combining clinical data with HIV-1 pol-sequences from the SHCS Drug Resistance Database(DRDB). We inferred maximum-likelihood phylogenetic trees, determined Swiss HIV-transmission pairs as monophyletic patient pairs, and then considered the distribution of HCV on those pairs. RESULTS: Among the 9748 patients in the SHCS-DRDB with known HCV status, 2768(28%) were HCV-positive. Focusing on subtype B(7644 patients), we identified 1555 potential HIV-1 transmission pairs. There, we found that, even after controlling for transmission group, calendar year, age and sex, the odds for an HCV coinfection were increased by an odds ratio (OR) of 3.2 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.2, 4.7) if a patient clustered with another HCV-positive case. This strong association persisted if transmission groups of intravenous drug users (IDUs), MSMs and heterosexuals (HETs) were considered separately(in all cases OR >2). Finally we found that HCV incidence was increased by a hazard ratio of 2.1 (1.1, 3.8) for individuals paired with an HCV-positive partner. CONCLUSIONS: Patients whose HIV virus is closely related to the HIV virus of HIV/HCV-coinfected patients have a higher risk for carrying or acquiring HCV themselves. This indicates the occurrence of domestic and sexual HCV transmission and allows the identification of patients with a high HCV-infection risk.

Alarm systems and catastrophes from a diverse point of view

Using a chain of urns, we build a Bayesian nonparametric alarm system to predict catastrophic events, such as epidemics, black outs, etc. Differently from other alarm systems in the literature, our model is constantly updated on the basis of the available information, according to the Bayesian paradigm. The papers contains both theoretical and empirical results. In particular, we test our alarm system on a well-known time series of sunspots.

An urn-based Bayesian block bootstrap

Block bootstrap has been introduced in the literature for resampling dependent data, i.e. stationary processes. One of the main assumptions in block bootstrapping is that the blocks of observations are exchangeable, i.e. their joint distribution is immune to permutations. In this paper we propose a new Bayesian approach to block bootstrapping, starting from the construction of exchangeable blocks. Our sampling mechanism is based on a particular class of reinforced urn processes

The Individualized Genetic Barrier Predicts Treatment Response in a Large Cohort of HIV-1 Infected Patients

The success of combination antiretroviral therapy is limited by the evolutionary escape dynamics of HIV-1. We used Isotonic Conjunctive Bayesian Networks (I-CBNs), a class of probabilistic graphical models, to describe this process. We employed partial order constraints among viral resistance mutations, which give rise to a limited set of mutational pathways, and we modeled phenotypic drug resistance as monotonically increasing along any escape pathway. Using this model, the individualized genetic barrier (IGB) to each drug is derived as the probability of the virus not acquiring additional mutations that confer resistance. Drug-specific IGBs were combined to obtain the IGB to an entire regimen, which quantifies the virus' genetic potential for developing drug resistance under combination therapy. The IGB was tested as a predictor of therapeutic outcome using between 2,185 and 2,631 treatment change episodes of subtype B infected patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study Database, a large observational cohort. Using logistic regression, significant univariate predictors included most of the 18 drugs and single-drug IGBs, the IGB to the entire regimen, the expert rules-based genotypic susceptibility score (GSS), several individual mutations, and the peak viral load before treatment change. In the multivariate analysis, the only genotype-derived variables that remained significantly associated with virological success were GSS and, with 10-fold stronger association, IGB to regimen. When predicting suppression of viral load below 400 cps/ml, IGB outperformed GSS and also improved GSS-containing predictors significantly, but the difference was not significant for suppression below 50 cps/ml. Thus, the IGB to regimen is a novel data-derived predictor of treatment outcome that has potential to improve the interpretation of genotypic drug resistance tests.