Simulation-based fully Bayesian experimental design for mixed effects models

In this paper, we present fully Bayesian experimental designs for nonlinear mixed effects models, in which we develop simulation-based optimal design methods to search over both continuous and discrete design spaces. Although Bayesian inference has commonly been performed on nonlinear mixed effects models, there is a lack of research into performing Bayesian optimal design for nonlinear mixed effects models that require searches to be performed over several design variables. This is likely due to the fact that it is much more computationally intensive to perform optimal experimental design for nonlinear mixed effects models than it is to perform inference in the Bayesian framework. In this paper, the design problem is to determine the optimal number of subjects and samples per subject, as well as the (near) optimal urine sampling times for a population pharmacokinetic study in horses, so that the population pharmacokinetic parameters can be precisely estimated, subject to cost constraints. The optimal sampling strategies, in terms of the number of subjects and the number of samples per subject, were found to be substantially different between the examples considered in this work, which highlights the fact that the designs are rather problem-dependent and require optimisation using the methods presented in this paper.

Ambiguity Acceptance Testing : A Comparison of the Ratio Test and Difference Test

Integer ambiguity resolution is an indispensable procedure for all high precision GNSS applications. The correctness of the estimated integer ambiguities is the key to achieving highly reliable positioning, but the solution cannot be validated with classical hypothesis testing methods. The integer aperture estimation theory unifies all existing ambiguity validation tests and provides a new prospective to review existing methods, which enables us to have a better understanding on the ambiguity validation problem. This contribution analyses two simple but efficient ambiguity validation test methods, ratio test and difference test, from three aspects: acceptance region, probability basis and numerical results. The major contribution of this paper can be summarized as: (1) The ratio test acceptance region is overlap of ellipsoids while the difference test acceptance region is overlap of half-spaces. (2) The probability basis of these two popular tests is firstly analyzed. The difference test is an approximation to optimal integer aperture, while the ratio test follows an exponential relationship in probability. (3) The limitations of the two tests are firstly identified. The two tests may under-evaluate the failure risk if the model is not strong enough or the float ambiguities fall in particular region. (4) Extensive numerical results are used to compare the performance of these two tests. The simulation results show the ratio test outperforms the difference test in some models while difference test performs better in other models. Particularly in the medium baseline kinematic model, the difference tests outperforms the ratio test, the superiority is independent on frequency number, observation noise, satellite geometry, while it depends on success rate and failure rate tolerance. Smaller failure rate leads to larger performance discrepancy.

Applying and testing design for intuitive interaction

Various tools have been developed to assist designers in making interfaces easier to use although none yet offer a complete solution. Through previous work we have established that intuitive interaction is based on past experience. From this we have developed theory around intuitive interaction, a continuum and a conceptual tool for intuitive use. We then trialled our tool. Firstly, one designer used the tool to design a camera. Secondly, seven groups of postgraduate students re-designed various products using our tool. We then chose one of these - a microwave – and prototyped the new and original microwave interfaces on a touchscreen. We tested them on three different age groups. We found that the new design was more intuitive and rated by participants as more familiar. Therefore, design interventions based on our intuitive interaction theory can work. Work is ongoing to develop the tool further.

Исследования и испытания алгоритмов автоматической пилотажно-навигационной системы малогабаритного беспилотного летательного аппарата = Research and testing of automatic navigation management system’s algorithms for small unmanned aerial vehicle

В статье представлено развитие принципа построения автоматической пилотажно-навигационной системы (АПНС) для беспилотного летательного аппарата (БЛА). Принцип заключается в синтезе комплексных систем управления БПЛА не только на основе использования алгоритмов БИНС, но и алгоритмов, объединяющих в себе решение задач формирования и отработки сформированной траектории резервированной системой управления и навигации. Приведены результаты аналитического исследования и данные летных экспериментов разработанных алгоритмов АПНС БЛА, обеспечивающих дополнительное резервирование алгоритмов навигации и наделяющих БЛА новым функциональной способностью по выходу в заданную точку пространства с заданной скоростью в заданный момент времени с учетом атмосферных ветровых возмущений. Предложена и испытана методика идентификации параметров воздушной атмосферы: направления и скорости W ветра. Данные летных испытаний полученного решения задачи терминальной навигации демонстрируют устойчивую работу синтезированных алгоритмов управления в различных метеоусловиях. The article presents a progress in principle of development of automatic navigation management system (ANMS) for small unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). The principle defines a development of integrated control systems for UAV based on tight coupling of strap down inertial navigation system algorithms and algorithms of redundant flight management system to form and control flight trajectory. The results of the research and flight testing of the developed ANMS UAV algorithms are presented. The system demonstrates advanced functional redundancy of UAV guidance. The system enables new UAV capability to perform autonomous multidimensional navigation along waypoints with controlled speed and time of arrival taking into account wind. The paper describes the technique for real-time identification of atmosphere parameters such as wind direction and wind speed. The flight test results demonstrate robustness of the algorithms in diverse meteorological conditions.

Finite element analysis of the in-plane shear behaviour of masonry panels confined with reinforced grouted cores

A combined experimental and numerical program was conducted to study the in-plane shear behaviour of hollow concrete masonry panels containing reinforced grout cores. This paper is focused on the numerical program. A two dimensional macromodelling strategy was used to simulate the behaviour of the confined masonry (CM) shear panels. Both the unreinforced masonry and the confining element were modelled using macromasonry properties and the steel reinforcement was modelled as an embedded truss element located within the grout using perfectly bonded constraint. The FE model reproduced key behaviours observed in the experiments, including the shear strength, the deformation and the crack patterns of the unconfined and confined masonry panels. The predictions of the validated model were used to evaluate the existing in-plane shear expressions available in the national masonry standards and research publications.

An experimental analysis of direction judgment in a curved corridor

An experiment was conducted to investigate direction judgment in a curved corridor. Each participant walked through the curved corridor. A direction was presented to participants at the entrance, and they were asked to point this direction at two points within the corridor. The present study proposed two hypotheses : (a) participants underestimate the change of their traveling direction while walking; (b) participants use four-direction reference axes (front, back, left, and right) for direction judgment. Both hypotheses were supported, and it was suggested that participants estimated the change of their traveling direction to be approximately 90% of the actual change.

Optimal Bayesian experimental design for models with intractable likelihoods using indirect inference applied to biological process models

This paper addresses the problem of determining optimal designs for biological process models with intractable likelihoods, with the goal of parameter inference. The Bayesian approach is to choose a design that maximises the mean of a utility, and the utility is a function of the posterior distribution. Therefore, its estimation requires likelihood evaluations. However, many problems in experimental design involve models with intractable likelihoods, that is, likelihoods that are neither analytic nor can be computed in a reasonable amount of time. We propose a novel solution using indirect inference (II), a well established method in the literature, and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm of Müller et al. (2004). Indirect inference employs an auxiliary model with a tractable likelihood in conjunction with the generative model, the assumed true model of interest, which has an intractable likelihood. Our approach is to estimate a map between the parameters of the generative and auxiliary models, using simulations from the generative model. An II posterior distribution is formed to expedite utility estimation. We also present a modification to the utility that allows the Müller algorithm to sample from a substantially sharpened utility surface, with little computational effort. Unlike competing methods, the II approach can handle complex design problems for models with intractable likelihoods on a continuous design space, with possible extension to many observations. The methodology is demonstrated using two stochastic models; a simple tractable death process used to validate the approach, and a motivating stochastic model for the population evolution of macroparasites.

CFD and experimental modelling of an impinging jet for thunderstorm downburst simulation

A thunderstorm downburst in its simplest form can be modelled as a steady flow impinging air jet. Although this simplification neglects some important atmospheric and physical parameters it has proven to be a useful tool for understanding the kinematics of these events. Assuming this simple impinging jet model also allows numerical models to be developed which can be directly compared with experimental results to validate the use of CFD. Confidence gained from these simulations will allow the use of more complex atmospheric impinging jet models that cannot be directly validated. Thunderstorm downbursts are important for wind engineers because in many parts of the world they produce the design wind speeds used in design standards, but are not structurally represented in these documents.

Generation of uniform plasmas by crossed internal oscillating current sheets : key concepts and experimental verification

The results of comprehensive experimental studies of the operation, stability, and plasma parameters of the low-frequency (0.46 MHz) inductively coupled plasmas sustained by the internal oscillating rf current are reported. The rf plasma is generated by using a custom-designed configuration of the internal rf coil that comprises two perpendicular sets of eight currents in each direction. Various diagnostic tools, such as magnetic probes, optical emission spectroscopy, and an rf-compensated Langmuir probe were used to investigate the electromagnetic, optical, and global properties of the argon plasma in wide ranges of the applied rf power and gas feedstock pressure. It is found that the uniformity of the electromagnetic field inside the plasma reactor is improved as compared to the conventional sources of inductively coupled plasmas with the external flat coil configuration. A reasonable agreement between the experimental data and computed electromagnetic field topography inside the chamber is reported. The Langmuir probe measurements reveal that the spatial profiles of the electron density, the effective electron temperature, plasma potential, and electron energy distribution/probability functions feature a high degree of the radial and axial uniformity and a weak azimuthal dependence, which is consistent with the earlier theoretical predictions. As the input rf power increases, the azimuthal dependence of the global plasma parameters vanishes. The obtained results demonstrate that by introducing the internal oscillated rf currents one can noticeably improve the uniformity of electromagnetic field topography, rf power deposition, and the plasma density in the reactor.

Comparison of block and event-related experimental designs in diffusion-weighted functional MRI

PURPOSE To compare diffusion-weighted functional magnetic resonance imaging (DfMRI), a novel alternative to the blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) contrast, in a functional MRI experiment. MATERIALS AND METHODS Nine participants viewed contrast reversing (7.5 Hz) black-and-white checkerboard stimuli using block and event-related paradigms. DfMRI (b = 1800 mm/s2 ) and BOLD sequences were acquired. Four parameters describing the observed signal were assessed: percent signal change, spatial extent of the activation, the Euclidean distance between peak voxel locations, and the time-to-peak of the best fitting impulse response for different paradigms and sequences. RESULTS The BOLD conditions showed a higher percent signal change relative to DfMRI; however, event-related DfMRI showed the strongest group activation (t = 21.23, P < 0.0005). Activation was more diffuse and spatially closer to the BOLD response for DfMRI when the block design was used. DfMRIevent showed the shortest TTP (4.4 +/- 0.88 sec). CONCLUSION The hemodynamic contribution to DfMRI may increase with the use of block designs.

Controlling current and voltage type interfaces in power-hardware-in-the-loop simulations

The usual practice to study a large power system is through digital computer simulation. However, the impact of large scale use of small distributed generators on a power network cannot be evaluated strictly by simulation since many of these components cannot be accurately modelled. Moreover, the network complexity makes the task of practical testing on a physical network nearly impossible. This study discusses the paradigm of interfacing a real-time simulation of a power system to real-life hardware devices. This type of splitting a network into two parts and running a real-time simulation with a physical system in parallel is usually termed as power-hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) simulation. The hardware part is driven by a voltage source converter that amplifies the signals of the simulator. In this paper, the effects of suitable control strategy on the performance of PHIL and the associated stability aspects are analysed in detail. The analyses are validated through several experimental tests using an real-time digital simulator.

An experimental based assessment of the deviation of the bearing characteristic frequencies

Slippage in the contact roller-races has always played a central role in the field of diagnostics of rolling element bearings. Due to this phenomenon, vibrations triggered by a localized damage are not strictly periodic and therefore not detectable by means of common spectral functions as power spectral density or discrete Fourier transform. Due to the strong second order cyclostationary component, characterizing these signals, techniques such as cyclic coherence, its integrated form and square envelope spectrum have proven to be effective in a wide range of applications. An expert user can easily identify a damage and its location within the bearing components by looking for particular patterns of peaks in the output of the selected cyclostationary tool. These peaks will be found in the neighborhood of specific frequencies, that can be calculated in advance as functions of the geometrical features of the bearing itself. Unfortunately the non-periodicity of the vibration signal is not the only consequence of the slippage: often it also involves a displacement of the damage characteristic peaks from the theoretically expected frequencies. This issue becomes particularly important in the attempt to develop highly automated algorithms for bearing damage recognition, and, in order to correctly set thresholds and tolerances, a quantitative description of the magnitude of the above mentioned deviations is needed. This paper is aimed at identifying the dependency of the deviations on the different operating conditions. This has been possible thanks to an extended experimental activity performed on a full scale bearing test rig, able to reproduce realistically the operating and environmental conditions typical of an industrial high power electric motor and gearbox. The importance of load will be investigated in detail for different bearing damages. Finally some guidelines on how to cope with such deviations will be given, accordingly to the expertise obtained in the experimental activity.

A test rig for the condition-based maintenance application on the traction chain of very high speed trains

The preventive maintenance of traction equipment for Very High Speed Trains (VHST) nowadays is becoming very expensive owing to the high complexity and quality of these components that require high reliability. An efficient maintenance approach like the Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) should be implemented to reduce the costs. For this purpose, an experimental full-scale test rig for the CBM of VHST traction equipment has been designed to investigate in detail failures in the main mechanical components of system, i.e. motor, bearings and gearbox. The paper describes the main characteristics of this unique test rig, able to reproduce accurately the train operating conditions, including the relative movements of the motor, the gearbox and the wheel axle. Gearbox, bearing seats and motor are equipped by accelerometers, thermocouples, torque meter and other sensors in different positions. The testing results give important information about the most suitable sensor position and type to be installed for each component and show the effectiveness of the techniques used for the signal analysis in order to identify faults of the gearbox and motor bearings.

Diagnostics of rolling element bearings for the traction system of high speed trains : experimental evidences

Monitoring of the integrity of rolling element bearings in the traction system of high speed trains is a fundamental operation in order to avoid catastrophic failures and to implement effective condition-based maintenance strategies. Diagnostics of rolling element bearings is usually based on vibration signal analysis by means of suitable signal processing techniques. The experimental validation of such techniques has been traditionally performed by means of laboratory tests on artificially damaged bearings, while their actual effectiveness in industrial applications, particularly in the field of rail transport, remains scarcely investigated. This paper will address the diagnostics of bearings taken from the service after a long term operation on a high speed train. These worn bearings have been installed on a test-rig, consisting of a complete full-scale traction system of a high speed train, able to reproduce the effects of wheel-track interaction and bogie-wheelset dynamics. The results of the experimental campaign show that suitable signal processing techniques are able to diagnose bearing failures even in this harsh and noisy application. Moreover, the most suitable location of the sensors on the traction system is also proposed.

Experimental evidences in bearing diagnostics for traction system of high speed trains

Rolling element bearings are the most critical components in the traction system of high speed trains. Monitoring their integrity is a fundamental operation in order to avoid catastrophic failures and to implement effective condition based maintenance strategies. Generally, diagnostics of rolling element bearings is usually performed by analyzing vibration signals measured by accelerometers placed in the proximity of the bearing under investigation. Several papers have been published on this subject in the last two decades, mainly devoted to the development and assessment of signal processing techniques for diagnostics. The experimental validation of such techniques has been traditionally performed by means of laboratory tests on artificially damaged bearings, while their actual effectiveness in specific industrial applications, particularly in rail industry, remains scarcely investigated. This paper is aimed at filling this knowledge gap, by addressing the diagnostics of bearings taken from the service after a long term operation on the traction system of a high speed train. Moreover, in order to test the effectiveness of the diagnostic procedures in the environmental conditions peculiar to the rail application, a specific test-rig has been built, consisting of a complete full-scale train traction system, able to reproduce the effects of wheeltrack interaction and bogie-wheelset dynamics. The results of the experimental campaign show that suitable signal processing techniques are able to diagnose bearing failures even in this harsh and noisy application. Moreover, the most suitable location of the sensors on the traction system is proposed, in order to limit their number.