A model for predicting the future incidence of coronary heart disease within percentiles of coronary heart disease risk

Background We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. Methods The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Results Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. Conclusions The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective. J Cardiovasc Risk 8:31-37 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

The moderating role of social support in Karasek's job strain model

This paper examines whether social support is a boundary-determining criterion in the job strain model of Karasek (1979). The particular focus is the extent to which different sources of social support, work overload and task control influence job satisfaction, depersonalization and supervisor assessments of work performance. Hypotheses are tested using prospective survey data from 80 clerical staff in a university setting. Results revealed 3-way interactions among levels of support (supervisor, co-worker, non-work), perceived task control and work overload on levels of work performance and employee adjustment (self-report). After controlling for levels of negative affect in all analyses, there was evidence that high levels of supervisor support mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of job satisfaction and reduced reported levels of depersonalization. Moreover, high levels of non-work support and co-worker support also mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of work performance. The results are discussed in terms of the importance of social support networks both at, and beyond, the work context.

A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

Transfer matrix eigenvalues of the anisotropic multiparametric U model

A multiparametric extension of the anisotropic U model is discussed which maintains integrability. The R-matrix solving the Yang-Baxter equation is obtained through a twisting construction applied to the underlying U-q(sl (2/1)) superalgebraic structure which introduces the additional free parameters that arise in the model. Three forms of Bethe ansatz solution for the transfer matrix eigenvalues are given which we show to be equivalent.

Modeling volatile organic compounds (voc`s) adsorption onto cup-stacked carbon nanotubes (cscnt) using the linear driving force model

Modeling volatile organic compounds (voc`s) adsorption onto cup-stacked carbon nanotubes (cscnt) using the linear driving force model. Volatile organic compounds (VOC`s) are an important category of air pollutants and adsorption has been employed in the treatment (or simply concentration) of these compounds. The current study used an ordinary analytical methodology to evaluate the properties of a cup-stacked nanotube (CSCNT), a stacking morphology of truncated conical graphene, with large amounts of open edges on the outer surface and empty central channels. This work used a Carbotrap bearing a cup-stacked structure (composite); for comparison, Carbotrap was used as reference (without the nanotube). The retention and saturation capacities of both adsorbents to each concentration used (1, 5, 20 and 35 ppm of toluene and phenol) were evaluated. The composite performance was greater than Carbotrap; the saturation capacities for the composite was 67% higher than Carbotrap (average values). The Langmuir isotherm model was used to fit equilibrium data for both adsorbents, and a linear driving force model (LDF) was used to quantify intraparticle adsorption kinetics. LDF was suitable to describe the curves.

Periodic electric field enhanced transport through membranes

We examine the mean flux across a homogeneous membrane of a charged tracer subject to an alternating, symmetric voltage waveform. The analysis is based on the Nernst-Planck flux equation, with electric field subject to time dependence only. For low frequency electric fields the quasi steady-state flux can be approximated using the Goldman model, which has exact analytical solutions for tracer concentration and flux. No such closed form solutions can be found for arbitrary frequencies, however we find approximations for high frequency. An approximation formula for the average flux at all frequencies is also obtained from the two limiting approximations. Numerical integration of the governing equation is accomplished by use of the numerical method of lines and is performed for four different voltage waveforms. For the different voltage profiles, comparisons are made with the approximate analytical solutions which demonstrates their applicability. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A transgenic mouse model that recapitulates the clinical features of both neonatal and adult forms of the skin disease epidermolytic hyperkeratosis

Keratins are the major structural proteins of keratinocytes, which are the most abundant cell type in the mammalian epidermis. Mutations in epidermal keratin genes have been shown to cause severe blistering skin abnormalities. One such disease, epidermolytic hyperkeratosis (EHK), also known as bullous congenital ichthyosiform erythroderma, occurs as a result of mutations in highly conserved regions of keratins K1 and K10. Patients with EHK first exhibit erythroderma with severe blistering, which later is replaced by thick patches of scaly skin. To assess the effect of a mutated K1 gene on skin biology and to produce an animal model for EHK, we removed 60 residues from the 2B segment of HK1 and observed the effects of its expression in the epidermis of transgenic mice. Phenotypes of the resultant mice closely resembled those observed in the human disease, first with epidermal blisters, then later with hyperkeratotic lesions. In neonatal mice homozygous for the transgene, the skin was thicker, with an increased labeling index, and the spinous cells showed a collapse of the keratin filament network around the nuclei, suggesting that a critical concentration of the mutant HK1, over the endogenous MK1, was required to disrupt the structural integrity of the spinous cells. Additionally, footpad epithelium, which is devoid of hair follicles, showed blistering in the spinous layer, suggesting that hair follicles can stabilize or protect the epidermis from trauma. Blisters were not evident in adult mice, but instead they showed a thick, scaly hyperkeratotic skin with increased mitosis, resulting in an increased number of corneocytes and granular cells. Irregularly shaped keratohyalin granules were also observed. To date, this is the only transgenic model to show the typical morphology found in the adult form of EHK.

Interconnected-tubes model of hepatic elimination

The distributed-tubes model of hepatic elimination is extended to include intermixing between sinusoids, resulting in the formulation of a new, interconnected-tubes model. The new model is analysed for the simple case of two interconnected tubes, where an exact solution is obtained. For the case of many strongly-interconnected tubes, it is shown that a zeroth-order approximation leads to the convection-dispersion model. As a consequence the dispersion number is expressed, for the first time, in terms of its main physiological determinants: heterogeneity of flow and density of interconnections between sinusoids. The analysis of multiple indicator dilution data from a perfused liver preparation using the simplest version of the model yields the estimate 10.3 for the average number of interconnections. The problem of boundary conditions for the dispersion model is considered from the viewpoint that the dispersion-convection equation is a zeroth-order approximation to the equations for the interconnected-tubes model. (C) 1997 Academic Press Limited.

Comparison of the efficacy of two commercially available media for culturing one-cell embryos in the in vitro fertilization mouse model

Objective: To examine the effects of two commercial media on the development of mouse ova fertilized in vitro to the blastocyst stage. Design: Animal model. Setting: Academic institution. Animal(s): Eight-week old, superovulated mice. Intervention(s): One-cell embryos cultured in vitro up to the blastocyst stage in potassium-enriched simplex optimized medium (KSOM) or G1/G2 medium. Main Outcome Measure(s): Blastocyst and hatching rates, total cell number count, and proportion of allocation of cells to the inner cell mass (ICM) and trophectoderm (TE). Result(s): The percentage of zygotes that developed to the blastocyst stage 96 and 120 hours after insemination was statistically significantly higher in the KSOM group. The percentage of blastocysts that partially or completely hatched by day 5 of culture was 84% and 71% for the KSOM and G1/G2 groups, respectively, showing a statistically significant difference between the groups. The mean number of ICM cells was 11.7 +/- 4.0 and 9.2 +/- 5.2 for the zygotes cultured in KSOM and G1/G2 media, respectively, revealing a statistically significantly higher cell number in the ICM of blastocysts derived from culture in KSOM medium. The ICM/TE ratio in the blastocysts cultured in KSOM or G1/G2 media was similar in both groups. Conclusion(s): Commercially available KSOM medium is superior to sequential G1/G2 media for culturing one-cell embryos up to the blastocyst stage in the mouse IVF model.

Endoscopic Anatomy of the Pterygopalatine Fossa and the Transpterygoid Approach: Development of a Surgical Instruction Model

Introduction: The pterygopalatine fossa (PPF) is a narrow space located between the posterior wall of the antrum and the pterygoid plates. Surgical access to the PPF is difficult because of its protected position and its complex neurovascular anatomy. Endonasal approaches using rod lens endoscopes, however, provide better visualization of this area and are associated with less morbidity than external approaches. Our aim was to develop a simple anatomical model using cadaveric specimens injected with intravascular colored silicone to demonstrate the endoscopic anatomy of the PPF. This model could be used for surgical instruction of the transpterygoid approach. Methods: We dissected six PPF in three cadaveric specimens prepared with intravascular injection of colored material using two different injection techniques. An endoscopic endonasal approach, including a wide nasoantral window and removal of the posterior antrum wall, provided access to the PPF. Results: We produced our best anatomical model injecting colored silicone via the common carotid artery. We found that, using an endoscopic approach, a retrograde dissection of the sphenopalatine artery helped to identify the internal maxillary artery (IMA) and its branches. Neural structures were identified deeper to the vascular elements. Notable anatomical landmarks for the endoscopic surgeon are the vidian nerve and its canal that leads to the petrous portion of the internal carotid artery (ICA), and the foramen rotundum, and V2 that leads to Meckel`s cave in the middle cranial fossa. These two nerves, vidian and V2, are separated by a pyramidal shaped bone and its apex marks the ICA. Conclusion: Our anatomical model provides the means to learn the endoscopic anatomy of the PPF and may be used for the simulation of surgical techniques. An endoscopic endonasal approach provides adequate exposure to all anatomical structures within the PPF. These structures may be used as landmarks to identify and control deeper neurovascular structures. The significance is that an anatomical model facilitates learning the surgical anatomy and the acquisition of surgical skills. A dissection superficial to the vascular structures preserves the neural elements. These nerves and their bony foramina, such as the vidian nerve and V2, are critical anatomical landmarks to identify and control the ICA at the skull base.

Role of cytokines (TNF-alpha, IL-1 beta and KC) in the pathogenesis of CPT-11-induced intestinal mucositis in mice: effect of pentoxifylline and thalidomide

Introduction Irinotecan (CPT-11) is an inhibitor of DNA topoisomerase I and is clinically effective against several cancers. A major toxic effect of CPT-11 is delayed diarrhea; however, the exact mechanism by which the drug induces diarrhea has not been established. Purpose Elucidate the mechanisms of induction of delayed diarrhea and determine the effects of the cytokine production inhibitor pentoxifylline (PTX) and thalidomide (TLD) in the experimental model of intestinal mucositis, induced by CPT-11. Materials and methods Intestinal mucositis was induced in male Swiss mice by intraperitoneal administration of CPT-11 (75 mg/kg) daily for 4 days. Animals received subcutaneous PTX (1.7, 5 and 15 mg/kg) or TLD (15, 30, 60 mg/kg) or 0.5 ml of saline daily for 5 and 7 days, starting 1 day before the first CPT-11 injection. The incidence of delayed diarrhea was monitored by scores and the animals were sacrificed on the 5th and 7th experimental day for histological analysis, immunohistochemistry for TNF-alpha and assay of myeloperoxidase (MPO) activity, tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha), interleukin-1 beta (IL-1 beta) and KC ELISA. Results CPT-11 caused significant diarrhea, histopathological alterations (inflammatory cell infiltration, loss of crypt architecture and villus shortening) and increased intestinal tissue MPO activity, TNF-alpha, IL-1 beta and KC level and TNF-alpha immuno-staining. PTX inhibited delayed diarrhea of mice submitted to intestinal mucositis and reduced histopathological damage, intestinal MPO activity, tissue level of TNF-alpha, IL-1 beta and KC and TNF-alpha immuno-staining. TLD significantly reduced the lesions induced by CPT-11 in intestinal mucosa, decreased MPO activity, TNF-alpha tissue level and TNF-alpha immuno-staining, but did not reduce the severity of diarrhea. Conclusion These results suggest an important role of TNF-alpha, IL-1 beta and KC in the pathogenesis of intestinal mucositis induced by CPT-11.

Involvement of NO in the inhibitory effect of Calotropis procera latex protein fractions on leukocyte rolling, adhesion and infiltration in rat peritonitis model

Aim of the study: The latex of Calotropis procera has been used in the traditional medicinal system for the treatment of leprosy, ulcers, tumors, piles and diseases of liver, spleen, abdomen and toothache. it comprises of a non-dialyzable protein fraction (LP) that exhibits anti-inflammatory properties and a dialyzable fraction (DF) exhibiting pro-inflammatory properties. The present study was carried out to evaluate the effect of LP sub-fractions on neutrophil functions and nociception in rodent models and to elucidate the mediatory role of nitric oxide (NO). Material and methods: The LP was subjected to ion exchange chromatography and the effect of its three sub-fractions (LP(PI), LP(PII), and LP(PIII)) thus obtained was evaluated on leukocyte functions in the rat peritonitis model and on nociception in the mouse model. Results: LP sub-fractions exhibit distinct protein profile and produce a significant decrease in the carrageenan and DF induced neutrophil influx and exhibit anti-nociceptive property. The LP and its sub-fractions produced a marked reduction in the number of rolling and adherent leukocytes in the mesenteric microvasculature as revealed by intravital microscopy. The anti-inflammatory effect of LP(PI), the most potent anti-inflammatory fraction of LP, was accompanied by an increase in the serum levels of NO. Further, our study shows that NO is also involved in the inhibitory effect of LP(PI) on neutrophil influx. Conclusions: Our study shows that LP fraction of Calotropis procera comprises of three distinct sets of proteins exhibiting anti-inflammatory and anti-nociceptive properties of which LP(PI) was most potent in inhibiting neutrophil functions and its effects are mediated through NO production. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A general hazard model for lifetime data in the presence of cure rate

Historically, the cure rate model has been used for modeling time-to-event data within which a significant proportion of patients are assumed to be cured of illnesses, including breast cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, leukemia, prostate cancer, melanoma, and head and neck cancer. Perhaps the most popular type of cure rate model is the mixture model introduced by Berkson and Gage [1]. In this model, it is assumed that a certain proportion of the patients are cured, in the sense that they do not present the event of interest during a long period of time and can found to be immune to the cause of failure under study. In this paper, we propose a general hazard model which accommodates comprehensive families of cure rate models as particular cases, including the model proposed by Berkson and Gage. The maximum-likelihood-estimation procedure is discussed. A simulation study analyzes the coverage probabilities of the asymptotic confidence intervals for the parameters. A real data set on children exposed to HIV by vertical transmission illustrates the methodology.

Analytical solution and numerical model for the interface in a stratified long wave system

For a two layered long wave propagation, linearized governing equations, which were derived earlier from the Euler equations of mass and momentum assuming negligible friction and interfacial mixing are solved analytically using Fourier transform. For the solution, variations of upper layer water level is assumed to be sinosoidal having known amplitude and variations of interface level is solved. As the governing equations are too complex to solve it analytically, density of upper layer fluid is assumed as very close to the density of lower layer fluid to simplify the lower layer equation. A numerical model is developed using the staggered leap-forg scheme for computation of water level and discharge in one dimensional propagation having known amplitude for the variations of upper layer water level and interface level to be solved. For the numerical model, water levels (upper layer and interface) at both the boundaries are assumed to be known from analytical solution. Results of numerical model are verified by comparing with the analytical solutions for different time period. Good agreements between analytical solution and numerical model are found for the stated boundary condition. The reliability of the developed numerical model is discussed, using it for different a (ratio of density of fluid in the upper layer to that in the lower layer) and p (ratio of water depth in the lower layer to that in the upper layer) values. It is found that as ‘CX’ increases amplification of interface also increases for same upper layer amplitude. Again for a constant lower layer depth, as ‘p’ increases amplification of interface. also increases for same upper layer amplitude.

On the relation between the conditional moment closure and unsteady flamelets

We consider the relation between the conditional moment closure (CMC) and the unsteady flamelet model (FM). The CMC equations were originally constructed as global equations, while FM was derived asymptotically for a thin reaction zone. The recent tendency is to use FM-type equations as global equations. We investigate the possible consequences and suggest a new version of FM: coordinate-invariant FM (CIFM). Unlike FM, CIFM complies with conditional properties of the exact transport equations which are used effectively in CMC. We analyse the assumptions needed to obtain another global version of FM: representative interactive flamelets (RIF), from original FM and demonstrate that, in homogeneous turbulence, one of these assumptions is equivalent to the main CMC hypothesis.