An econometric analysis of international tourism demand in Hong Kong : a cointegration and error correction approach

The purpose of this study is to develop econometric models to better understand the economic factors affecting inbound tourist flows from each of six origin countries that contribute to Hong Kong’s international tourism demand. To this end, we test alternative cointegration and error correction approaches to examine the economic determinants of tourist flows to Hong Kong, and to produce accurate econometric forecasts of inbound tourism demand. Our empirical findings show that permanent income is the most significant determinant of tourism demand in all models. The variables of own price, weighted substitute prices, trade volume, the share price index (as an indicator of changes in wealth in origin countries), and a dummy variable representing the Beijing incident (1989) are also found to be important determinants for some origin countries. The average long-run income and own price elasticity was measured at 2.66 and – 1.02, respectively. It was hypothesised that permanent income is a better explanatory variable of long-haul tourism demand than current income. A novel approach (grid search process) has been used to empirically derive the weights to be attached to the lagged income variable for estimating permanent income. The results indicate that permanent income, estimated with empirically determined relatively small weighting factors, was capable of producing better results than the current income variable in explaining long-haul tourism demand. This finding suggests that the use of current income in previous empirical tourism demand studies may have produced inaccurate results. The share price index, as a measure of wealth, was also found to be significant in two models. Studies of tourism demand rarely include wealth as an explanatory forecasting long-haul tourism demand. However, finding a satisfactory proxy for wealth common to different countries is problematic. This study indicates with the ECM (Error Correction Models) based on the Engle-Granger (1987) approach produce more accurate forecasts than ECM based on Pesaran and Shin (1998) and Johansen (1988, 1991, 1995) approaches for all of the long-haul markets and Japan. Overall, ECM produce better forecasts than the OLS, ARIMA and NAÏVE models, indicating the superiority of the application of a cointegration approach for tourism demand forecasting. The results show that permanent income is the most important explanatory variable for tourism demand from all countries but there are substantial variations between countries with the long-run elasticity ranging between 1.1 for the U.S. and 5.3 for U.K. Price is the next most important variable with the long-run elasticities ranging between -0.8 for Japan and -1.3 for Germany and short-run elasticities ranging between – 0.14 for Germany and -0.7 for Taiwan. The fastest growing market is Mainland China. The findings have implications for policies and strategies on investment, marketing promotion and pricing.

Az állam szerepe a turizmusban (The role of government in tourism)

Az állam szerepe napjainkban átalakulóban van, ami az egyes gazdasági területeken más és más szabályozórendszer alkalmazását igényli a szakterület sajátosságainak és az iparág igényeinek, nemzetközi környezetének megfelelően. A turizmus azon gazdasági területek közé tartozik, amelynek szerepe az elmúlt időszakban dinamikusan növekedett, többek között jelentős bruttó hazai termék-előállító, munkaigényes jellegéből, valamint jelentős beruházást gerjesztő hatásából adódóan. A turizmus mint üzleti tevékenység nem nélkülözheti az állam szerepét. Számos olyan externália társul hozzá, ami államilag koordinált esetben a fejlődést magasabb pályára állítja, és társadalmilag hatékonyabb szinten valósul meg. Napjainkban az állam szerepének újraértelmezése, feladatainak újbóli átgondolása és a megfelelő súlypontok megtalálása elengedhetetlenül szükséges annak érdekében, hogy a turizmus pozitív hatásai hosszú távon érvényesüljenek. _______________ Nowadays the role of the government is changing, which needs the usage of different regulatory systems regarding the requirements of the industry and the international environment. Tourism belongs to the economics fields which importance are growing very rapidly because of its effects such as GDP contribution effect, workforce effect and investment exciting effect. Tourism as a business activity needs the significant role of the government. Tourism is in association with a lot of externalise, therefore can secure the coordination of the state the development and the efficiency at a higher level. Nowadays the rethinking of the task of the government is needed on the field of tourism in the interest of the enforcement of its positive effects.

A fogyasztói érték és az élmény kontextusa a turisztikai szakirodalomban (The context of consumer value an experience in tourism literature)

Tanulmányában a szerző a szakirodalomban fellelhető főbb fogyasztóiérték- és élménymegközelítéseket és kapcsolatokat mutatja be. A turizmus területére fókuszálva kitér az egyes érték és a hozzá szorosan kapcsolódó élménymegközelítéseken belül található nézetkülönbségekre és azonosságokra. A szerző célja, hogy bemutassa a turizmusszektorban tapasztalt fogyasztóiérték-megközelítések sokféleségét, alátámassza a fogalom tudományos szempontú tisztázatlanságát, valamint korábbi empirikus kutatások alapján összesítse a fogyasztói érték lehetséges dimenzióit a turizmusban. ____ In this paper, the author presents consumer value and experience approaches and connections found in literature. Focusing on the area of tourism she introduces value – experience connections, the differences and accordance among approaches of the experts, and the changes of the content of interpretations from time to time. The author set several targets with her work: introducing the diversity of consumer value approaches in tourism; proving the lack of the precisely and scientifically composed concept of consumer value; and based on former empirical researches summarizing the potential consumer value dimensions in tourism.

Metropolitan Tourism Experience Development. Selected studies from the Tourism Network Workshop of the Regional Studies Association, held in Budapest, Hungary, 2015

On January 28-30, 2015 Corvinus University of Budapest hosted the latest workshop of the Regional Studies Association’s Tourism Research Network. The event had been held previously in Izmir, Aalborg, Warsaw, Östersund, Antalya, Leeds and Vila-seca Catalonia. The aim of the RSA research network is to examine tourism diversity from the perspective of regional development in order to identify current challenges and opportunities in a systematic manner, and hence provide the basis for a more well-informed integration of tourism in regional development strategies and move beyond political short-termism and buzzword fascination. In the frame of the network a series of workshops have been organised from various topics of destination management till rural tourism.

A posztmodern marketing elvei és gyakorlata a turizmus piacán - Mátrix és turizmus (Theories and practice of the post-modern marketing on tourism market – Matrix and tourism)

Jelen tanulmány a posztmodern kor fogyasztási tendenciáit és a posztmodern marketing sajátos fejlődését elemzi, elsősorban a turizmus példáján. A szerzők a hazai és a nemzetközi szakirodalom, illetve saját kutatásaik és megfigyeléseik alapján ütköztetik az ismert és elfogadott elveket, elméleteket a gyakorlattal, és felhívják a figyelmet a marketingtevékenység alkalmazkodásának hazai problémáira. A Vezetéstudomány című folyóirat 2008/9. számában rendkívül érdekes tanulmány jelent meg Mitev Ariel Zoltán és Horváth Dóra tollából „A posztmodern marketing rózsaszirmai” címmel. A tanulmány előremutató, érdekfeszítő és minden tekintetben konstruktív, újszerű. Jelen tanulmány szerzőire is nagy hatást gyakorolt a cikk, nagyrészt felsorolt erényei miatt, de egyes esetekben kiegészítést kívánva. Mindenképpen inspirálta a továbblépést, az újabb adalékok megfogalmazását, amire ezúton e tanulmány szerzői kísérletet tettek. A cikk egyben szerves gondolati folytatása a szerzőpáros korábbi közös publikációinak, elsősorban a Marketing & Menedzsment folyóiratban megjelent cikknek. _______ In this article the author will analyze consumption tendencies of post-modern age, mainly using tourism marketing examples. Their analysis has been based on results of their own researches and researches published in Hungarian and international marketing literature. In this article they try to confront different theories of post-modern marketing and they will analyze problems of applicability of these theories in Hungarian marketing problem solving. An extremely interesting article was published in Vezetéstudomány (2008/9), written by Zoltán Mitev Ariel and Dóra Horváth, and this article, by its interesting, innovative and constructive aspect has largely influenced authors of present article to continue the path proposed in the abovementioned article. The article, in the same time, is an organic continuation of the earlier common publications of the authors, e.g. the recent article in Marketing & Menedzsment journal.

Quantifying the Impacts of the Recent Economic Crisis on Regional Tourism Industry and Economy

The purpose of this study is to explore the accuracy issue of the Input-Output model in quantifying the impacts of the 2007 economic crisis on a local tourism industry and economy. Though the model has been used in the tourism impact analysis, its estimation accuracy is rarely verified empirically. The Metro Orlando area in Florida is investigated as an empirical study, and the negative change in visitor expenditure between 2007 and 2008 is taken as the direct shock. The total impacts are assessed in terms of output and employment, and are compared with the actual data. This study finds that there are surprisingly large discrepancies among the estimated and actual results, and the Input-Output model appears to overestimate the negative impacts. By investigating the local economic activities during the study period, this study made some exploratory efforts in explaining such discrepancies. Theoretical and practical implications are then suggested.

Food Services Styles in Chinese Hotels: Traditions and Tourism Pressures Merge

Tourist often want to experience their hosts' culture including cuisines. Their reactions can be negatively influenced by vastly different customs which confront them. What can be done, for example, when traditional food serving styles violate the tourist's sanitation standards? The authors discuss a Chinese case study-- and tell what hoteliers in China gace done to make good serving more desirable, with minimal compromise to culinary traditions.

A Case Study of Health Tourism in the Jeju Province, South Korea

The United States Census Bureau (2006) reported that in 2005 more than 46 million Americans lacked health insurance, and that by 2019 national spending for health care would exceed $4.5 trillion (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, 2010). Because those numbers are expected to increase, health tourists are seeking better opportunities for low-cost, high-quality treatment in other countries, plus the added benefit of experiencing foreign cultures. Health tourism is a rapidly growing market in both advanced and developing countries. The purpose of this study was to develop an applicable model of health tourism, the Jeju-Style Health Tourism Model, for Jeju Special Self-Governing Province, in the Republic of Korea (South Korea) and to provide other cities and countries with its implications. This study employed a focus group, indepth interviews, and content analysis to discover important factors in developing the model. The results suggested that four major sources must be executed together to maximize the benefits of health tourism development. On a foundation of natural resources, knowledge-based resources were most important (54.5%), followed by artificial resources (25.7%), and expenses-based resources (19.8%).

Tourism Professionals Indicate Research Needs

County and local tourism officials have a great need for data to help them make their decisions. The authors surveyed professionals to determine data used and needed, the types of decisions made, and where data is obtained. The results provide a profile for information sharing.

Book Review: Tourism in China: Exotic Land Revealed

There is no better way to lean about tourism in China than from renowned expert in the field. Alan Lew. PhD. and professor at Northern Arizona University, Lawrence Yu, Ph.D. and associate professor in the Department of Tourism and Hospitality Management at George Washington University. John Ap, Ph.D. and associate professor in tourism management at Hong Kong Polytechnic University and Zhang Guangrui, director of the Tourism Research Centre, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing, China, have contributed to and edited a collection of writings detailing the development of tourism in this fascinating and exotic land.

Intra-regional Tourism and Challenges Facing Hong Kong's Hotel Industry

Asia is experiencing a rapid growth in intra-Asian tourism, and is finding that the spending priorities of these new visitor markets is quite different from traditional markets. Not only have Hong Kong's markets changed, but the economic operational environment is becoming increasingly difficult as a result of the change in sovereignty in 1997, increasing land prices, and new regulations. The current structure of the hotel industry is out of balance with the demands of these new markets. Hong Kong now needs to consider some intervention in the hotel industry to further encourage the development of properties in this mid-market.