Comment on “Multiyear prediction of monthly mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N”

Matei et al. (Reports, 6 January 2012, p. 76) claim to show skillful multiyear predictions of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, these claims are not justified, primarily because the predictions of AMOC transport do not outperform simple reference forecasts based on climatological annual cycles. Accordingly, there is no justification for the “confident” prediction of a stable AMOC through 2014.

Climate change and the emergence of new organizational landscapes

There is general agreement across the world that human-made climate change is a serious global problem,although there are still some sceptics who challenge this view. Research in organization studies on the topic is relatively new. Much of this research, however, is instrumental and managerialist in its focus on ‘win-win’ opportunities for business or its treatment of climate change as just another corporate social responsibility (CSR) exercise. In this paper, we suggest that climate change is not just an environmental problem requiring technical and managerial solutions; it is a political issue where a variety of organizations – state agencies, firms, industry associations, NGOs and multilateral organizations – engage in contestation as well as collaboration over the issue. We discuss the strategic, institutional and political economy dimensions of climate change and develop a socioeconomic regimes approach as a synthesis of these different theoretical perspectives. Given the urgency of the problem and the need for a rapid transition to a low-carbon economy, there is a pressing need for organization scholars to develop a better understanding of apathy and inertia in the face of the current crisis and to identify paths toward transformative change. The seven papers in this special issue address these areas of research and examine strategies, discourses, identities and practices in relation to climate change at multiple levels.

Emergence of fluoroquinolone resistance in the native Campylobacter coli population of pigs exposed to enrofloxacin

Objective: The effect of a single 5 day enrofloxacin treatment on the native Campylobacter coli population in conventionally weaned 5-week-old pigs was investigated. Materials: Twelve pigs were split into two groups of six: one group was treated with a therapeutic dose (15 mg/pig/day) of enrofloxacin and the other remained untreated to act as the control. Campylobacter coli were isolated from faecal samples and tested for ciprofloxacin resistance by measuring MIC values. Mutations in the quinolone resistance-determining region (QRDR) of the gyrA gene of resistant isolates were identified by sequencing and denaturing HPLC. Levels of enrofloxacin and its primary metabolite ciprofloxacin in the pig faeces were also measured by HPLC. Results: No quinolone-resistant C. coli (n = 867) were detected in any of the pigs prior to treatment, indicating <0.1% resistance in the group. Resistant C. coli were isolated from pigs for up to 35 days after treatment with a therapeutic dose. These resistant C. coli had MIC values of 128 mg/L and 8-16 mg/L for nalidixic acid and ciprofloxacin, respectively, and the same single point mutation causing a Thr-86 to Ile substitution in the QRDR was identified in each. The concentration of enrofloxacin in the pig faeces was 2-4 mug/g faeces for the duration of the 5 day therapeutic treatment and was detected up to 10 days post-treatment. Ciprofloxacin was also measured and peaked at 0.6 mug/g faeces in the treated group. Conclusion: This study provides evidence that a single course of enrofloxacin treatment contributes directly to the emergence and persistence of fluoroquinolone resistance in C. coli.

Effect of the growth promoter avilamycin on emergence and persistence of antimicrobial resistance in enteric bacteria in the pig

Aim: To assess the effect of the growth promoter avilamycin on emergence and persistence of resistance in enteric bacteria in the pig. Methods and Results: Pigs ( treated with avilamycin for 3 months and controls) were challenged with multiresistant Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 and faecal counts were performed for enterococci, Escherichia coli, S. Typhimurium and Campylobacter ( before, during and 5 weeks post-treatment). Representative isolates were tested for antibiotic resistance and for the presence of resistance genes. Avilamycin-resistant Enterococci faecalis (speciated by PCR) were isolated from the treated pigs and continued to be detected for the first week after treatment had ceased. The avilamycin- resistance gene was characterized by PCR as the emtA gene and speciation by PCR. MIC profiling confirmed that more than one strain of Ent. faecalis carried this gene. There was no evidence of increased antimicrobial resistance in the E. coli, Salmonella and Campylobacter populations, although there was a higher incidence of tetB positive E. coli in the treated pigs than the controls. Conclusion: Although avilamycin selects for resistance in the native enterococci population of the pig, no resistant isolates were detected beyond 1 week post-treatment. This suggests that resistant isolates were unable to persist once selective pressure was removed and were out-competed by the sensitive microflora. Significance and Impact of the Study: Our data suggest the risk of resistant isolates becoming carcass contaminants and infecting humans could be minimized by introducing a withdrawal period after using avilamycin and prior to slaughter.

Prediction of visibility and aerosol within the operational Met Office unified model. I: Model formulation and variational assimilation

The formulation and performance of the Met Office visibility analysis and prediction system are described. The visibility diagnostic within the limited-area Unified Model is a function of humidity and a prognostic aerosol content. The aerosol model includes advection, industrial and general urban sources, plus boundary-layer mixing and removal by rain. The assimilation is a 3-dimensional variational scheme in which the visibility observation operator is a very nonlinear function of humidity, aerosol and temperature. A quality control scheme for visibility data is included. Visibility observations can give rise to humidity increments of significant magnitude compared with the direct impact of humidity observations. We present the results of sensitivity studies which show the contribution of different components of the system to improved skill in visibility forecasts. Visibility assimilation is most important within the first 6-12 hours of the forecast and for visibilities below 1 km, while modelling of aerosol sources and advection is important for slightly higher visibilities (1-5 km) and is still significant at longer forecast times

Standardized test to evaluate numerical weather prediction algorithms

In order to assist in comparing the computational techniques used in different models, the authors propose a standardized set of one-dimensional numerical experiments that could be completed for each model. The results of these experiments, with a simplified form of the computational representation for advection, diffusion, pressure gradient term, Coriolis term, and filter used in the models, should be reported in the peer-reviewed literature. Specific recommendations are described in this paper.

Military competition and the emergence of nationalism: putting the logic of political survival into historical context

This essay aims to make a contribution to the conversation between IR and nationalism literatures by considering a particular question: What is the relationship between interstate military competition and the emergence of nationalism as a potent force in world politics? The conventional wisdom among international security scholars, especially neorealists, holds that nationalism can be more or less treated like a “technology” that allowed states to extract significant resources as well as manpower from their respective populations. This paper underlines some of the problems involved with this perspective and pushes forward an interpretation that is based on the logic of political survival. I argue that nationalism’s emergence as a powerful force in world politics followed from the “mutation” and absorption of the universalistic/cosmopolitan republican ideas that gained temporary primacy in Europe during the eighteenth century into particularistic nationalist ideologies. This transformation, in turn, can be best explained by the French Revolution’s dramatic impacts on rulers’ political survival calculi vis-à-vis both interstate and domestic political challenges. The analysis offered in this essay contributes to our understanding of the relationship between IR and nationalism while also highlighting the potential value of the political survival framework for exploring macrohistorical puzzles.

From short-range barotropic modelling to extended-range global weather prediction: a 40-year perspective

At the end of the 20th century, we can look back on a spectacular development of numerical weather prediction, which has, practically uninterrupted, been going on since the middle of the century. High-resolution predictions for more than a week ahead for any part of the globe are now routinely produced and anyone with an Internet connection can access many of these forecasts for anywhere in the world. Extended predictions for several seasons ahead are also being done — the latest El Niño event in 1997/1998 is an example of such a successful prediction. The great achievement is due to a number of factors including the progress in computational technology and the establishment of global observing systems, combined with a systematic research program with an overall strategy towards building comprehensive prediction systems for climate and weather. In this article, I will discuss the different evolutionary steps in this development and the way new scientific ideas have contributed to efficiently explore the computing power and in using observations from new types of observing systems. Weather prediction is not an exact science due to unavoidable errors in initial data and in the models. To quantify the reliability of a forecast is therefore essential and probably more so the longer the forecasts are. Ensemble prediction is thus a new and important concept in weather and climate prediction, which I believe will become a routine aspect of weather prediction in the future. The limit between weather and climate prediction is becoming more and more diffuse and in the final part of this article I will outline the way I think development may proceed in the future.

Prediction of a typhoon using a fine-mesh NWP model

The ECMWF operational grid point model (with a resolution of 1.875° of latitude and longitude) and its limited area version (with a resolution of !0.47° of latitude and longitude) with boundary values from the global model have been used to study the simulation of the typhoon Tip. The fine-mesh model was capable of simulating the main structural features of the typhoon and predicting a fall in central pressure of 60 mb in 3 days. The structure of the forecast typhoon, with a warm core (maximum potential temperature anomaly 17 K). intense swirling wind (maximum 55 m s-1 at 850 mb) and spiralling precipitation patterns is characteristic of a tropical cyclone. Comparison with the lower resolution forecast shows that the horizontal resolution is a determining factor in predicting not only the structure and intensity but even the movement of these vortices. However, an accurate and refined initial analysis is considered to be a prerequisite for a correct forecast of this phenomenon.

Numerical prediction of atmospheric blocking-A case study

A series of numerical models have been used to investigate the predictability of atmospheric blocking for an episode selected from FGGE Special Observing Period I. Level II-b FGGE data have been used in the experiment. The blocking took place over the North Atlantic region and is a very characteristic example of high winter blocking. It is found that the very high resolution models developed at ECMWF, in a remarkable way manage to predict the blocking event in great detail, even beyond 1 week. Although models with much less resolution manage to predict the blocking phenomenon as such, the actual evolution differs very much from the observed and consequently the practical value is substantially reduced. Wind observations from the geostationary satellites are shown to have a substantial impact on the forecast beyond 5 days, as well as an extension of the integration domain to the whole globe. Quasi-geostrophic baroclinic models and, even more, barotropic models, are totally inadequate to predict blocking except in its initial phase. The prediction experiment illustrates clearly that efforts which have gone into the improvement of numerical prediction models in the last decades have been worth while.