Estrategias políticas y costo beneficio económico en el proceso de la firma de un tratado comercial. Estudio de Caso TLC Colombia - Corea del Sur (2009-2013).

Este estudio de caso analiza en qué medida la firma del Tratado de Libre Comercio entre Colombia y Corea del Sur obedece a estrategias políticas y/o costo beneficio económico por parte de este último. La hipótesis en el presente trabajo es que la firma del TLC entre ambos países se debe a la existencia de intereses compartidos. Por un lado, existen intereses económicos, debido a que Corea del Sur es un actor racional que busca siempre maximizar sus beneficios a través del aumento del tamaño de sus mercados. En este sentido, Colombia le sirve como plataforma para exportación de productos coreanos utilizando los acuerdos comerciales ya establecidos. Así mismo, existen intereses políticos que son permeados por medio de la cooperación internacional y que le pueden servir al Estado surcoreano en un proceso de búsqueda de legitimar de su imagen dentro del Sistema Internacional vis-a-vis de su relación con Corea del Norte. Este trabajo será de tipo descriptivo y explicativo. Para el desarrollo se utilizará la metodología cualitativa, ya que se ahonda en las especificidades del caso para entender cómo se dio éste fenómeno en particular. Como fuentes de recolección de información se utilizan entrevistas y análisis de documentos oficiales de la Embajada de Corea y discursos del Embajador Choo Jong Youn.

La gestión del agua: el desafío chino. Iniciativas medio ambientales chinas y el manejo del río Mekong. Periodo de estudio: 1980 - 2010

El propósito de la presente investigación es evaluar la incidencia regional de las iniciativas chinas a favor de la gestión del agua del Río Mekong como elementos que contribuyen en la construcción de la percepción favorable para el gigante asiático. Producto del conjunto de reformas aplicadas desde 1978, China fue objeto de un crecimiento económico exponencial que algunos académicos denominan milagroso; sin embargo, dicho proceso involucró un impacto negativo sobre el medio ambiente y en particular sobre el agua del Estado. El deterioro ambiental chino implicó, por un lado, el desarrollo de medidas internas que pretenden reversar los efectos descritos en el marco de las diferentes cumbres mundiales sobre medio ambiente y por otro, la participación en iniciativas de carácter subregional que denotan cierto grado de pro-actividad del gigante asiático en materia ambiental.

Análisis de la política exterior japonesa en materia económica frente a las dinámicas comerciales de Corea del Sur y Japón. Periodo 2001 – 2011

Este estudio de caso busca analizar la Política Exterior Japonesa en materia económica frente a las dinámicas comerciales tanto de Corea del Sur como del mismo Japón en el Periodo 2001 – 2011, teniendo como objetivo concreto la identificación de la incidencia que tienen dichas dinámicas comerciales, en términos de competitividad por precio y calidad, sobre la Política Exterior Comercial Japonesa (PECJ).

Dime cómo me percibes y te diré quién soy: Estados Unidos y su idea de la política exterior China en la década de 1950

La década de 1950 fue determinante en el establecimiento y póstumo desarrollo del sistema de política exterior de la República Popular China. Al respecto, es de vital importancia realizar un análisis exhaustivo sobre esta primera etapa en donde actores externos a la nación tuvieron un papel determinante. Se busca, entonces, analizar la incidencia que tuvo el discurso de Estados Unidos en la política exterior China a través de un profundo análisis cualitativo que tendrá como base elementos propios de la historiografía. Mediante aproximaciones constructivistas, se pretende demostrar que las creencias pre-existentes de ambos actores (así como la intersubjetividad entre los mismos), determinó la identidad construida a través de la percepción mutua. Lo anterior, impulsó las relaciones predominantemente agresivas entre Estados Unidos y la China Maoísta de principios de la Guerra Fría.

The EU's External Action towards the Middle East: Resolution required. CEPS Commentary, 7 January 2012

Among the many foreign policy challenges the EU will have to address this year, such as cultivating workable ties with Ukraine, Russia and other neighbours in the east, reviving the transatlantic partnership in trade, rebalancing alliances with Asian countries, and pooling and sharing defence capabilities, the number one challenge that will take up most of the Foreign Affairs Council’s time is the Middle East. After months of half-baked unilateral attempts at resolving the foreign policy challenges posed by this troubled region, the moment has now come for the EU to take bold and concrete action, argues CEPS Senior Fellow Steven Blockmans in this new Commentary.

Response of the Asian summer monsoon to a weakening of Atlantic thermohaline circulation

Various paleoclimate records have shown that the Asian monsoon was punctuated by numerous suborbital time-scale events, and these events were coeval with those that happened in the North Atlantic. This study investigates the Asian summer monsoon responses to the Atlantic Ocean forcing by applying an additional freshwater flux into the North Atlantic. The simulated results indicate that the cold North Atlantic and warm South Atlantic induced by the weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) due to the freshwater flux lead to significantly suppressed Asian summer monsoon. The authors analyzed the detailed processes of the Atlantic Ocean forcing on the Asian summer monsoon, and found that the atmospheric teleconnection in the eastern and central North Pacific and the atmosphere-ocean interaction in the tropical North Pacific play the most crucial role. Enhanced precipitation in the subtropical North Pacific extends the effects of Atlantic Ocean forcing from the eastern Pacific into the western Pacific, and the atmosphere-ocean interaction in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean intensifies the circulation and precipitation anomalies in the Pacific and East Asia.

The meteorology of the Western Indian Ocean, and the influence of the east African highlands

This paper reviews the meteorology of the Western Indian Ocean and uses a state–of–the–art atmospheric general circulation model to investigate the influence of the East African Highlands on the climate of the Indian Ocean and its surrounding regions. The new 44–year re–analysis produced by the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has been used to construct a new climatology of the Western Indian Ocean. A brief overview of the seasonal cycle of the Western Indian Ocean is presented which emphasizes the importance of the geography of the Indian Ocean basin for controlling the meteorology of the Western Indian Ocean. The principal modes of inter–annual variability are described, associated with El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole or Zonal Mode, and the basic characteristics of the subseasonal weather over the Western Indian Ocean are presented, including new statistics on cyclone tracks derived from the ECMWF re–analyses. Sensitivity experiments, in which the orographic effects of East Africa are removed, have shown that the East African Highlands, although not very high, play a significant role in the climate of Africa, India and Southeast Asia, and in the heat, salinity and momentum forcing of the Western Indian Ocean. The hydrological cycle over Africa is systematically enhanced in all seasons by the presence of the East African Highlands, and during the Asian summer monsoon there is a major redistribution of the rainfall across India and Southeast Asia. The implied impact of the East African Highlands on the ocean is substantial. The East African Highlands systematically freshen the tropical Indian Ocean, and act to focus the monsoon winds along the coast, leading to greater upwelling and cooler sea–surface temperatures.

Dynamic analysis of house price diffusion across Asian financial centres

The aim of this paper is to explore effects of macroeconomic variables on house prices and also, the lead-lag relationships of real estate markets to examine house price diffusion across Asian financial centres. The analysis is based on the Global Vector Auto-Regression (GVAR) model estimated using quarterly data for six Asian financial centres (Hong Kong, Tokyo, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei and Bangkok) from 1991Q1 to 2011Q2. The empirical results indicate that the global economic conditions play significant roles in shaping house price movements across Asian financial centres. In particular, a small open economy that heavily relies on international trade such as – Singapore and Tokyo - shows positive correlations between economy’s openness and house prices, consistent with the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis in international trade. However, region-specific conditions do play important roles as determinants of house prices, partly due to restrictive housing policies and demand-supply imbalances, as found in Singapore and Bangkok.

Revisiting Asian monsoon formation and change associated with Tibetan Plateau forcing: II. Change

Data analysis based on station observations reveals that many meteorological variables averaged over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are closely correlated, and their trends during the past decades are well correlated with the rainfall trend of the Asian summer monsoon. However, such correlation does not necessarily imply causality. Further diagnosis confirms the existence of a weakening trend in TP thermal forcing, characterized by weakened surface sensible heat flux in spring and summer during the past decades. This weakening trend is associated with decreasing summer precipitation over northern South Asia and North China and increasing precipitation over northwestern China, South China, and Korea. An atmospheric general circulation model, the HadAM3, is employed to elucidate the causality between the weakening TP forcing and the change in the Asian summer monsoon rainfall. Results demonstrate that a weakening in surface sensible heating over the TP results in reduced summer precipitation in the plateau region and a reduction in the associated latent heat release in summer. These changes in turn result in the weakening of the near-surface cyclonic circulation surrounding the plateau and the subtropical anticyclone over the subtropical western North Pacific, similar to the results obtained from the idealized TP experiment in Part I of this study. The southerly that normally dominates East Asia, ranging from the South China Sea to North China, weakens, resulting in a weaker equilibrated Sverdrup balance between positive vorticity generation and latent heat release. Consequently, the convergence of water vapor transport is confined to South China, forming a unique anomaly pattern in monsoon rainfall, the so-called “south wet and north dry.” Because the weakening trend in TP thermal forcing is associated with global warming, the present results provide an effective means for assessing projections of regional climate over Asia in the context of global warming.

Isomap nonlinear dimensionality reduction and bimodality of Asian monsoon convection

It is known that the empirical orthogonal function method is unable to detect possible nonlinear structure in climate data. Here, isometric feature mapping (Isomap), as a tool for nonlinear dimensionality reduction, is applied to 1958–2001 ERA-40 sea-level pressure anomalies to study nonlinearity of the Asian summer monsoon intraseasonal variability. Using the leading two Isomap time series, the probability density function is shown to be bimodal. A two-dimensional bivariate Gaussian mixture model is then applied to identify the monsoon phases, the obtained regimes representing enhanced and suppressed phases, respectively. The relationship with the large-scale seasonal mean monsoon indicates that the frequency of monsoon regime occurrence is significantly perturbed in agreement with conceptual ideas, with preference for enhanced convection on intraseasonal time scales during large-scale strong monsoons. Trend analysis suggests a shift in concentration of monsoon convection, with less emphasis on South Asia and more on the East China Sea.

Reaching the underbanked and unbanked in subsistence markets at the nexus of the formal and informal economy

It is estimated that globally over 2 billion people do not have a bank account, with many more in the developed and developing worlds ‘under-banked’, meaning they have limited access to financial services. Reaching the unbanked and underbanked with appropriate financial services is widely recognised as critical for future global economic growth and prosperity. Drawing upon multidimensional understandings of poverty, and framed by literature on poverty pools, traps and cycles, this paper explores the use of financial products and services in the developing world and critically reflects on their potential role in poverty alleviation and wider sustainable development. Discussions are illustrated with reference to qualitative empirical research undertaken in East and Southern Africa, and a sense-making of the lived financial experiences of low income individuals, households and communities.

The resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon and Indo-Pacific in a global 0.35◦ AGCM

The South Asian monsoon is one of the most significant manifestations of the seasonal cycle. It directly impacts nearly one third of the world’s population and also has substantial global influence. Using 27-year integrations of a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (Met Office Unified Model), we study changes in South Asian monsoon precipitation and circulation when horizontal resolution is increased from approximately 200 to 40 km at the equator (N96 to N512, 1.9 to 0.35◦). The high resolution, integration length and ensemble size of the dataset make this the most extensive dataset used to evaluate the resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon to date. We find a consistent pattern of JJAS precipitation and circulation changes as resolution increases, which include a slight increase in precipitation over peninsular India, changes in Indian and Indochinese orographic rain bands, increasing wind speeds in the Somali Jet, increasing precipitation over the Maritime Continent islands and decreasing precipitation over the northern Maritime Continent seas. To diagnose which resolution related processes cause these changes we compare them to published sensitivity experiments that change regional orography and coastlines. Our analysis indicates that improved resolution of the East African Highlands results in the improved representation of the Somali Jet and further suggests that improved resolution of orography over Indochina and the Maritime Continent results in more precipitation over the Maritime Continent islands at the expense of reduced precipitation further north. We also evaluate the resolution sensitivity of monsoon depressions and lows, which contribute more precipitation over northeast India at higher resolution. We conclude that while increasing resolution at these scales does not solve the many monsoon biases that exist in GCMs, it has a number of small, beneficial impacts.

Impacts of uplift of northern Tibetan Plateau and formation of Asian inland deserts on regional climate and environment

Based on the geological evidence that the northern Tibetan Plateau (NTP) had an uplift of a finite magnitude since the Miocene and the major Asian inland deserts formed in the early Pliocene, a regional climate model (RegCM4.1) with a horizontal resolution of 50 km was used to explore the effects of the NTP uplift and the related aridification of inland Asia on regional climate. We designed three numerical experiments including the control experiment representing the present-day condition, the high-mountain experiment representing the early Pliocene condition with uplifted NTP but absence of the Asian inland deserts, and the low-mountain experiment representing the mid-Miocene condition with reduced topography in the NTP (by as much as 2400 m) and also absence of the deserts. Our simulation results indicated that the NTP uplift caused significant reductions in annual precipitation in a broad region of inland Asia north of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) mainly due to the enhanced rain shadow effect of the mountains and changes in the regional circulations. However, four mountainous regions located in the uplift showed significant increases in precipitation, stretching from the Pamir Plateau in the west to the Qilian Mountains in the east. These mountainous areas also experienced different changes in the rainfall seasonality with the greatest increases occurring during the respective rainy seasons, predominantly resulted from the enhanced orographically forced upwind ascents. The appearance of the major deserts in the inland Asia further reduced precipitation in the region and led to increased dust emission and deposition fluxes, while the spatial patterns of dust deposition were also changed, not only in the regions of uplift-impacted topography, but also in the downwind regions. One major contribution from this study is the comparison of the simulation results with 11 existing geological records representing the moisture conditions from Miocene to Pliocene. The comparisons revealed good matches between the simulation results and the published geological records. Therefore, we conclude that the NTP uplift and the related formation of the major deserts played a controlling role in the evolution of regional climatic conditions in a broad region in inland Asia since the Miocene.

Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy 2005-2006

Includes bibliography