999 resultados para Earthquake Prediction


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The Mw= 7.2 Haiti earthquake of 12th January 2010 caused extensive damage to buildings and other infrastructure in the epicentral region in and around Port-au-Prince. The Earthquake Engineering Field Investigation Team (EEFIT), which is based in the United Kingdom, organised a field mission to Haiti with the authors as the team members. The paper presents the geotechnical findings of the team including those relating to soil liquefaction and lateral spreading and discusses the performance of buildings, including historic buildings, and bridges. Unprecedented use was made of damage assessments made from remote images (i. e. images taken from satellites and aircraft) when planning the post-earthquake relief effort in Haiti and a principal objective of the team was to evaluate the accuracy of such assessments. Accordingly, 142 buildings in Port-au-Prince were inspected in the field by the EEFIT team; damage assessments had previously been made using remote images for all these buildings. On the basis of this survey, the tendency of remote assessments to underestimate damage was confirmed; it was found that the underestimate applied to assessments based on oblique images using the relatively new technique of Pictometry, as well as those based on vertical images, although to a lesser degree. The paper also discusses the distribution of damage in Port-au-Prince, which was found to be strongly clustered in ways that appear not to have been completely explained. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

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Emissions, fuel burn, and noise are the main drivers for innovative aircraft design. Embedded propulsion systems, such as for example used in hybrid-wing body aircraft, can offer fuel burn and noise reduction benefits but the impact of inlet flow distortion on the generation and propagation of turbomachinery noise has yet to be assessed. A novel approach is used to quantify the effects of non-uniform flow on the creation and propagation of multiple pure tone (MPT) noise. The ultimate goal is to conduct a parametric study of S-duct inlets to quantify the effects of inlet design parameters on the acoustic signature. The key challenge is that the effects of distortion transfer, noise source generation and propagation through the non-uniform flow field are inherently coupled such that a simultaneous computation of the aerodynamics and acoustics is required to capture the mechanisms at play. The technical approach is based on a body force description of the fan blade row that is able to capture the distortion transfer and the blade-to-blade flow variations that cause the MPT noise while reducing computational cost. A single, 3-D full-wheel CFD simulation, in which the Euler equations are solved to second-order spatial and temporal accuracy, simultaneously computes the MPT noise generation and its propagation in distorted inlet flow. A new method of producing the blade-to-blade variations in the body force field for MPT noise generation has been developed and validated. The numerical dissipation inherent to the solver is quantified and used to correct for non-physical attenuation in the far-field noise spectra. Source generation, acoustic propagation and acoustic energy transfer between modes is examined in detail. The new method is validated on NASA's Source Diagnostic Test fan and inlet, showing good agreement with experimental data for aerodynamic performance, acoustic source generation, and far-field noise spectra. The next steps involve the assessment of MPT noise in serpentine inlet ducts and the development of a reduced order formulation suitable for incorporation into NASA's ANOPP framework. © 2010 by Jeff Defoe, Alex Narkaj & Zoltan Spakovszky.

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Embedded propulsion systems, such as for example used in advanced hybrid-wing body aircraft, can potentially offer major fuel burn and noise reduction benefits but introduce challenges in the aerodynamic and acoustic integration of the high-bypass ratio fan system. A novel approach is proposed to quantify the effects of non-uniform flow on the generation and propagation of multiple pure tone noise (MPTs). The new method is validated on a conventional inlet geometry first. The ultimate goal is to conduct a parametric study of S-duct inlets in order to quantify the effects of inlet design parameters on the acoustic signature. The key challenge is that the mechanism underlying the distortion transfer, noise source generation and propagation through the non-uniform flow field are inherently coupled such that a simultaneous computation of the aerodynamics and acoustics is required. The technical approach is based on a body force description of the fan blade row that is able to capture the distortion transfer and the MPT noise generation mechanisms while greatly reducing computational cost. A single, 3-D full-wheel unsteady CFD simulation, in which the Euler equations are solved to second-order spatial and temporal accuracy, simultaneously computes the MPT noise generation and its propagation in distorted mean flow. Several numerical tools were developed to enable the implementation of this new approach. Parametric studies were conducted to determine appropriate grid and time step sizes for the propagation of acoustic waves. The Ffowcs-Williams and Hawkings integral method is used to propagate the noise to far field receivers. Non-reflecting boundary conditions are implemented through the use of acoustic buffer zones. The body force modeling approach is validated and proof-of-concept studies demonstrate the generation of disturbances at both blade-passing and shaft-order frequencies using the perturbed body force method. The full methodology is currently being validated using NASA's Source Diagnostic Test (SDT) fan and inlet geometry. Copyright © 2009 by Jeff Defoe, Alex Narkaj & Zoltan Spakovszky.

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Soil liquefaction following large earthquakes is a major contributor to damage to infrastructure and economic loss, as borne out by the earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand in 2011. While extensive research has been conducted on soil liquefaction and our understanding of liquefaction has been advancing, several uncertainties remain. In this paper the basic premise that liquefaction is an 'undrained' event will be challenged. Evidence will be offered based on dynamic centrifuge tests to show that rapid settlements occur both in level ground and for shallow foundations. It will also be shown that the definition of liquefaction based on excess pore pressure generation and the subsequent classification of sites as liquefiable and non-liquefiable is not satisfactory, as centrifuge test data shows that both loose and dense sand sites produce significant excess pore pressure. Experimental evidence will be presented that shows that the permeability of sands increases rapidly at very low effective stresses to allow for rapid drainage to take place from liquefied soil. Based on these observations a micro-mechanical view of soil liquefaction that brings together the Critical State view of soil liquefaction and the importance of dynamic loading will be presented. © 2012 Indian Geotechnical Society.

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A major research program was carried out to analyze the mechanism of FRP debonding from concrete beams using global-energy-balance approach (GEBA). The key findings are that the fracture process zone is small so there is no R-curve to consider, failure is dominated by Mode I behavior, and the theory agrees well with tests. The analyses developed in the study provide an essential tool that will enable fracture mechanics to be used to determine the load at which FRP plates will debond from concrete beams. This obviates the need for finite element (FE) analyses in situations where reliable details of the interface geometry and crack-tip stress fields are not attainable for an accurate analysis. This paper presents an overview of the GEBA analyses that is described in detail elsewhere, and explains the slightly unconventional assumptions made in the analyses, such as the revised moment-curvature model, the location of an effective centroid, the separate consideration of the FRP and the RC beam for the purposes of the analysis, the use of Mode I fracture energies and the absence of an R-curve in the fracture mechanics analysis.

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The mesostriatal dopamine system is prominently implicated in model-free reinforcement learning, with fMRI BOLD signals in ventral striatum notably covarying with model-free prediction errors. However, latent learning and devaluation studies show that behavior also shows hallmarks of model-based planning, and the interaction between model-based and model-free values, prediction errors, and preferences is underexplored. We designed a multistep decision task in which model-based and model-free influences on human choice behavior could be distinguished. By showing that choices reflected both influences we could then test the purity of the ventral striatal BOLD signal as a model-free report. Contrary to expectations, the signal reflected both model-free and model-based predictions in proportions matching those that best explained choice behavior. These results challenge the notion of a separate model-free learner and suggest a more integrated computational architecture for high-level human decision-making.

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In economic decision making, outcomes are described in terms of risk (uncertain outcomes with certain probabilities) and ambiguity (uncertain outcomes with uncertain probabilities). Humans are more averse to ambiguity than to risk, with a distinct neural system suggested as mediating this effect. However, there has been no clear disambiguation of activity related to decisions themselves from perceptual processing of ambiguity. In a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) experiment, we contrasted ambiguity, defined as a lack of information about outcome probabilities, to risk, where outcome probabilities are known, or ignorance, where outcomes are completely unknown and unknowable. We modified previously learned pavlovian CS+ stimuli such that they became an ambiguous cue and contrasted evoked brain activity both with an unmodified predictive CS+ (risky cue), and a cue that conveyed no information about outcome probabilities (ignorance cue). Compared with risk, ambiguous cues elicited activity in posterior inferior frontal gyrus and posterior parietal cortex during outcome anticipation. Furthermore, a similar set of regions was activated when ambiguous cues were compared with ignorance cues. Thus, regions previously shown to be engaged by decisions about ambiguous rewarding outcomes are also engaged by ambiguous outcome prediction in the context of aversive outcomes. Moreover, activation in these regions was seen even when no actual decision is made. Our findings suggest that these regions subserve a general function of contextual analysis when search for hidden information during outcome anticipation is both necessary and meaningful.

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Theories of instrumental learning are centred on understanding how success and failure are used to improve future decisions. These theories highlight a central role for reward prediction errors in updating the values associated with available actions. In animals, substantial evidence indicates that the neurotransmitter dopamine might have a key function in this type of learning, through its ability to modulate cortico-striatal synaptic efficacy. However, no direct evidence links dopamine, striatal activity and behavioural choice in humans. Here we show that, during instrumental learning, the magnitude of reward prediction error expressed in the striatum is modulated by the administration of drugs enhancing (3,4-dihydroxy-L-phenylalanine; L-DOPA) or reducing (haloperidol) dopaminergic function. Accordingly, subjects treated with L-DOPA have a greater propensity to choose the most rewarding action relative to subjects treated with haloperidol. Furthermore, incorporating the magnitude of the prediction errors into a standard action-value learning algorithm accurately reproduced subjects' behavioural choices under the different drug conditions. We conclude that dopamine-dependent modulation of striatal activity can account for how the human brain uses reward prediction errors to improve future decisions.

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Underground structures located in liquefiable soil deposits are susceptible to floatation following an earthquake event due to their lower unit weight relative to the surrounding saturated soil. This inherent buoyancy may cause lightweight structures to float when the soil liquefies. Centrifuge tests have been carried out to study the excess pore pressure generation and dissipation in liquefiable soils. In these tests, near full liquefaction conditions were attained within a few cycles of the earthquake loading. In the case of high hydraulic conductivity sands, significant dissipation could take place even during the earthquake loading which inhibits full liquefaction from occurring. In the case of excess pore pressure generation and dissipation around a floating structure, the cyclic response of the structure may lead to the reduction in excess pore pressure near the face of the structure as compared to the far field. This reduction in excess pore pressure is due to shear-induced dilation and suction pressures arising from extensile stresses at the soil-structure interface. Given the lower excess pore pressure around the structure; the soil around the structure retains a portion of this shear strength which in turn can discourage significant uplift of the underground structure. Copyright © 2012, IGI Global.