What direction for Turkey? A plea for political reconciliation. EPIN Commentary No. 26/14 October 2015

Even before the recent terrorist attacks in Ankara, Turkey was a country in crisis. In this EPIN Commentary Umut Uzer attempts to shed light on the political turbulence and increasing polarisation in the country, and makes a plea for a return to consensus-building ahead of the fresh round of elections in November. The author also calls upon the EU to offer incentives to Turkey to continue on the path of EU membership, but if membership is out of the question, then other platforms for cooperation should be negotiated. The EU should speak in a candid manner and make clear what kind of future relationship it envisages for Turkey, because now, more than ever, cooperation is in both their interests.

A Convergence Process in Household Credit in Central and Eastern Europe. ECRI Commentary No. 16, 30 October 2015

The liberalisation of Eastern Europe’s market during the 1990s and the 2004 EU enlargement have had a great impact on the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Indeed, prior to these events, the financial system and household credit markets in CEE were underdeveloped. Nonetheless, it appeared to numerous economists that the development of the CEE financial system and credit markets was following an intensely positive trend, raising the question of sustainability. Many variables impact the level and growth rate of credit; several economists point out that a convergence process might be one of the most important. Using a descriptive statistics approach, it seems likely that a convergence process began during the 1990s, when the CEE countries opened their economies. However, it also seems that the main driver of this household credit convergence process is the GDP per capita convergence process. Indeed, credit to households and GDP per capita have followed broadly similar tendencies over the last 20 years and it has been shown in the literature that they appear to influence each other. The consistency of this potential convergence process is also confirmed by the breakdown of household credit by type and maturity. There is a tendency towards similar household credit markets in Europe. However, it seems that this potential convergence process was slowed down by the financial crisis. Fortunately, the crisis also stabilised the share of loans in foreign currency in CEE countries. This might add more stability to credit markets in Eastern Europe.

Paradoxes of stabilisation. Bosnia and Herzegovina from the perspective of Central Europe. OSW Report, March 2016

On 15 February 2016 Bosnia and Herzegovina applied for membership of the European Union. This was the result of the new policy strategy which the EU introduced in 2014, aimed at unblocking BiH’s integration process and encouraging local elites to accelerate the reform process. Despite a formal application to the EU, the main internal problems of BiH remain the same - local politicians focus more on the power struggle and enhancing ethnic division than on reform and this is hampering the economic development of one of the poorest countries in Europe. For these reasons this report is devoted to analysing the internal challenges to the stability, coherence and unity of the country. Special attention was also placed on examining the interest and strategies of the various international actors since they can hinder or support the reform process.

Why Moldova’s European integration is failing. CEPS Commentary, 3 March 2016

As anti-government demonstrations continued in Chisinau, EU foreign ministers reaffirmed their support for Moldova’s political association and economic integration with the EU in the Council conclusions of 15 February 2016. The ministers also confirmed that all 28 EU member states have ratified the Association Agreement between Moldova and the EU. Despite this progress, Moldova’s European integration project is in tatters. According to an authoritative survey commissioned by the National Democratic Institute in November 2015, only 40% Moldovans support European integration; 44% are in favour of Eurasian integration, however. [1] As Russia steps up the pressure on Moldova, these trends are worrying for the EU.

Something Worth Fighting For: The Evolution of Lobbying Coalitions in the Emissions Trading System. Bruges Political Research Papers 50/2015.

This thesis attempts to understand who fought for influence within the European Union’s policy area of the Emissions Trading System (ETS). The ETS is a key aspect of the European Union’s (EU) climate change policy and is particularly important in light of the conclusions at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris. It was first established in 2003 with Directive 2003/87/EC and completed its first major revision in 2008 with Directive 2009/29/EC. Between these two key Directives, the interplay between industrial and environmental incentives means that the ETS has created a dynamic venue for divergent interest groups. So as to identify the relevant actors, this paper applies the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) of Sabatier. Using position papers, semi-structured interviews, and unpublished documents from the EU institutions, this paper answers it primary research question in its identification of an economy-first and an environment-first lobbying coalition. These coalitions have expanded over time with the environment-first coalition incorporating Greenpeace and the economy-first coalition expanding even further in both scope and speed. However, the economy-first coalition has been susceptible to industry-specific interests. In its application of the ACF, the research shows that a hypothesised effect between the ACF’s external events and these lobbying coalitions is inconclusive. Other hypotheses stemming from the ACF relating to electricity prices and the 2004 enlargement seem to be of significance for the relative composition of the lobbying coalitions. This paper finds that there are certain limitations within the ACF. The findings of this thesis provide a unique insight into how lobbying coalitions within a key EU policy area can form and develop.

Labour Mobility in Europe – An untapped resource?. Policy Brief #2015/04

Despite the public perception in many member states that labour mobility has spiralled out of control, intra-EU migration remains low, particularly within the euro area. The limits to the potential of labour mobility became evident during the economic crisis as high unemployment rates in the periphery have only caused limited mobility from crisis countries. Hence, the bulk of labour mobility still flows from east to west but ten years after the eastern enlargement the number of East Europeans living in EU15 should be of no overall concern. In view of the lessons learned from the crisis, the Commission and member states should improve existing tools for cross-border job matching and adopt a longer-term view on labour mobility.

Macedonia: a superficial democracy in the shadow of crises. OSW COMMENTARY NUMBER 206/31.03.2016

Until 2008, Macedonia was leading the process of EU and NATO integration, and (after Croatia) was the fastest-reforming Western Balkan country. However, since Macedonia’s negotiations on joining the EU and NATO were blocked, in connection with its dispute with Greece, the Macedonian government has moved away from a policy of reform towards reinforcing its autocratic system and consolidating society behind nationalist slogans. Also the EU, which had hitherto been the driving force behind the changes, has due to its internal crises been paying little attention to violations of democratic standards in the Republic of Macedonia, tensions in relations between the Slavic Macedonians and the Albanian minority (which make up over 25% of the population), and the country’s permanent political domestic crises.

Britain and Europe: A new settlement? EPC Challenge Europe 23, May 2016

Britain's European problem, Stephen Wall; Britain's contribution to the EU: an insider's view, David Hannay; 'Foreign judges' and the law of the European Union, David Edward; The United Kingdom and the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the EU, Peter Goldsmith; European foreign policy: five and a half stories, Robert Cooper; External relations and the transformative power of enlargement, Heather Grabbe; Recalibrating British European policy in foreign affairs, Fraser Cameron; The European Union and the wider Europe, Graham Avery; From Common Market to Single Market: an unremarked success, Malcolm Harbour; Lost in translation: Britain, Germany and the euro, Quentin Peel; After Cameron's EU deal, Kirsty Hughes; Re-imagining the European Union, Caroline Lucas; Britain and European federalism, Brendan Donnelly; Europe's British problem, Andrew Duff.

Hostages to dialogue. The process of normalising Serbian-Kosovar relations. OSW COMMENTARY No. 214, 2016-06-08

In March 2011, the governments of Kosovo and Serbia started a dialogue that was intended to lead to the normalisation of mutual relations. This process, launched under the pressure of the EU, was aimed at building up confidence between the parties and resolving the everyday problems of the Serbian and Albanian communities, and as a consequence, reducing tension in the Western Balkans. The start of talks between representatives of the antagonist countries was the breakthrough that led to the Kosovo government gaining control over the whole of its territory, the establishment of a border (or ‘administrative boundary line’, as Belgrade calls it), and the start of the process of subordinating the Kosovo Serbian institutions to the authorities in Prishtina. Serbia also lifted its trade blockade on Kosovo, and allowed Prishtina to join the regional organisations. As a result, progress has been made in the process of integration of both states with the EU: Serbia has started accession negotiations, and Kosovo has signed a Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA).

Georgia and the EU – maintaining the momentum. EPC Commentary, 1 July 2016

The Association Agreement (AA) between Georgia and the European Union (EU), signed in June 2014, will enter into force on 1 July 2016 after having been ratified by the parliaments of the 28 member states. The AA, with its Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA), foresees far-reaching political and economic integration with the EU by significantly deepening political and economic ties. Many provisions of the agreement have already begun to be implemented, and some are even beginning to give tangible results, such as the opening up of European markets to Georgian exports. Yet this benchmark moment was somehow overshadowed by the EU’s failure to extend visa free travel to Georgians, as had been expected, despite acknowledging that Georgia had fulfilled all the criteria that had been set. Whilst this was quickly explained by the EU as being only a temporary setback, based on reasons more related to other countries, such as Turkey and Ukraine, with which similar arrangements were being negotiated, it exposed the fragility of maintaining the necessary momentum in Georgia-EU relations.

Is the EU turning a blind eye to the 'new strongmen' of the Balkans? CEPS Commentary, 11 July 2016

"We are working on a daily basis with each and every one, to make steps towards the European integration of the Western Balkans." High Representative/Vice President Federica Mogherini Western Balkans Summit, Paris, 4 July 2016

To be or not to be an EU member state – A question for the Balkan aspirants as well? EPC Commentary, 13 July 2016

Last month, a majority of British voters decided that the UK should leave the European Union (EU). In the wake of the Brexit result, anti-EU politicians in a host of member states began to float the idea of putting the same ‘in-out’ option to electorates in their own countries. As the economic and political fallout of the UK’s choice to withdraw from the EU continues to unfold, an acute sense of uncertainty gathers steam and ripples not just through the remaining member states but also their EU-hopeful neighbours in the Balkans. What will the departure of the UK from the EU mean for the Balkan enlargement process?

Long-Term Clinical and Imaging Follow-Up After Reinforced Pulmonary Autograft Ross Procedure.

The Ross operation remains a controversially discussed procedure when performed in the full root technique because concern exists regarding late dilatation of the pulmonary autograft and regurgitation of the neo-aortic valve. In 2008, we published our short-term experience when using external reinforcement of the autograft, which was inserted into a prosthetic Dacron graft. This detail was thought to prevent neoaortic root dilatation. Since 2006, 22 adult patients have undergone a Ross procedure using this technique. Indications were aortic regurgitation (n = 2), aortic stenosis (n = 15), and combined aortic stenosis and insufficiency (n = 5). A bicuspid aortic valve was present in 10 patients. Prior balloon valvuloplasty had been performed in seven patients. No early or late deaths occurred in this small series. One patient required aortic valve replacement early postoperatively, but freedom from late reoperation is 100% in the 21 remaining patients. Echocardiography confirmed the absence of more than trivial aortic insufficiency in 15 patients after a mean of 70 months (range, 14 to 108 months). No autograft dilatation was observed during follow-up and all patients are in New York Heart Association Class I. Autograft reinforcement is a simple and reproducible technical adjunct that may be especially useful in situations known for late autograft dilatation, namely, bicuspid aortic valve, predominant aortic insufficiency, and ascending aortic enlargement. The mid- to long-term results are encouraging because no late aortic root enlargement has been observed and the autograft valve is well functioning in all cases.

Uppermost Limit, Extent, and Fluctuations of the Timberline and Treeline Ecocline in the Swiss Central Alps during the past 11,500 Years

Pollen and macrofossils were analyzed at two sites above today's treeline (or tree limit) in the Swiss Central Alps (Gouillé Loéré, 2503 m a.s.l., and Lengi Egga, 2557 m a.s.l.) to test two contrasting hypotheses about the natural formation of timberline (the upper limit of closed forest) in the Alps. Our results revealed that Pinus cembra--Larix decidua forests near timberline were rather closed between 9000 and 2500 B.C. (9600-4000 ¹⁴C yr BP), when timberline fluctuations occurred within a belt 100-150 m above today's tree limit. The treeline ecocline above timberline was characterized by the mixed occurrence of tree, shrub, dwarf-shrub, and herbaceous species, but it did not encompass more than 100-150 altitudinal meters. The uppermost limit reached by timberline and treeline during the Holocene was ca. 2420 and 2530 m, respectively, i.e., about 120 to 180 m higher than today. Between 3500 and 2500 B.C. (4700-4000 ¹⁴C yr BP) timberline progressively sank by about 300 m, while treeline was lowered only ca. 100 m. This change led to an enlargement of the treeline-ecocline belt (by ca. 300 m) after 2500 B.C. (4000 ¹⁴C yr BP). Above the treeline ecocline, natural meadows dominated by dwarf shrubs (e.g., Salix herbacea) and herbaceous species (e.g., Helianthemum, Taraxacum, Potentialla, Leontodon t., Cerastium alpinum t., Cirsium spinosissimum, Silene exscapa t., and Saxifraga stellaris) have been present since at least 11,000 cal yr ago. In these meadows tree and tall shrub species (>0.5 m) never played a major role. These results support the conventional hypothesis of a narrow ecocline with rather sharp upper timberline and treeline boundaries and imply that today's treeless alpine communities in the Alps are close to a natural stage. Pollen (percentages and influx), stomata, and charcoal data may be useful for determining whether or not a site was treeless. Nevertheless, a reliable and detailed record of past local vegetation near and above timberline is best achieved through the inclusion of macrofossil analysis.

Beekeeping in Oregon.

Revision and enlargement of Extension bulletin 282.