Retrospective analysis of a nonforecasted rain-on-snow flood in the Alps – a matter of model limitations or unpredictable nature?

A rain-on-snow flood occurred in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland, on 10 October 2011, and caused significant damage. As the flood peak was unpredicted by the flood forecast system, questions were raised concerning the causes and the predictability of the event. Here, we aimed to reconstruct the anatomy of this rain-on-snow flood in the Lötschen Valley (160 km2) by analyzing meteorological data from the synoptic to the local scale and by reproducing the flood peak with the hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model). This in order to gain process understanding and to evaluate the predictability. The atmospheric drivers of this rain-on-snow flood were (i) sustained snowfall followed by (ii) the passage of an atmospheric river bringing warm and moist air towards the Alps. As a result, intensive rainfall (average of 100 mm day-1) was accompanied by a temperature increase that shifted the 0° line from 1500 to 3200 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) in 24 h with a maximum increase of 9 K in 9 h. The south-facing slope of the valley received significantly more precipitation than the north-facing slope, leading to flooding only in tributaries along the south-facing slope. We hypothesized that the reason for this very local rainfall distribution was a cavity circulation combined with a seeder-feeder-cloud system enhancing local rainfall and snowmelt along the south-facing slope. By applying and considerably recalibrating the standard hydrological model setup, we proved that both latent and sensible heat fluxes were needed to reconstruct the snow cover dynamic, and that locally high-precipitation sums (160 mm in 12 h) were required to produce the estimated flood peak. However, to reproduce the rapid runoff responses during the event, we conceptually represent likely lateral flow dynamics within the snow cover causing the model to react "oversensitively" to meltwater. Driving the optimized model with COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling)-2 forecast data, we still failed to simulate the flood because COSMO-2 forecast data underestimated both the local precipitation peak and the temperature increase. Thus we conclude that this rain-on-snow flood was, in general, predictable, but requires a special hydrological model setup and extensive and locally precise meteorological input data. Although, this data quality may not be achieved with forecast data, an additional model with a specific rain-on-snow configuration can provide useful information when rain-on-snow events are likely to occur.

Functional traits determine plant co-occurrence more than environment or evolutionary relatedness in global drylands

Plant-plant interactions are driven by environmental conditions, evolutionary relationships (ER) and the functional traits of the plants involved. However, studies addressing the relative importance of these drivers are rare, but crucial to improve our predictions of the effects of plant-plant interactions on plant communities and of how they respond to differing environmental conditions. To analyze the relative importance of - and interrelationships among - these factors as drivers of plant-plant interactions, we analyzed perennial plant co-occurrence at 106 dryland plant communities established across rainfall gradients in nine countries. We used structural equation modelling to disentangle the relationships between environmental conditions (aridity and soil fertility), functional traits extracted from the literature, and ER, and to assess their relative importance as drivers of the 929 pairwise plant-plant co-occurrence levels measured. Functional traits, specifically facilitated plants' height and nurse growth form, were of primary importance, and modulated the effect of the environment and ER on plant-plant interactions. Environmental conditions and ER were important mainly for those interactions involving woody and graminoid nurses, respectively. The relative importance of different plant-plant interaction drivers (ER, functional traits, and the environment) varied depending on the region considered, illustrating the difficulty of predicting the outcome of plant-plant interactions at broader spatial scales. In our global-scale study on drylands, plant-plant interactions were more strongly related to functional traits of the species involved than to the environmental variables considered. Thus, moving to a trait-based facilitation/competition approach help to predict that: (1) positive plant-plant interactions are more likely to occur for taller facilitated species in drylands, and (2) plant-plant interactions within woody-dominated ecosystems might be more sensitive to changing environmental conditions than those within grasslands. By providing insights on which species are likely to better perform beneath a given neighbour, our results will also help to succeed in restoration practices involving the use of nurse plants. (C) 2014 Geobotanisches Institut ETH, Stiftung Ruebel. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Extracorporeal shockwave therapy in a dog with chronic bicipital tenosynovitis

A 15-month-old, spayed female, Bernese mountain dog was presented to the Institute of Small Animal Surgery at the University of Zurich because of chronic left forelimb lameness. The referring veterinarian diagnosed pain in the left shoulder region and had treated the dog with systemic non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and restricted exercise for a two-week period. The follow-up examination revealed only minimal improvement and therefore, the dog was referred for further diagnostic evaluation. Chronic bicipital tenosynovitis and tendinitis of the infraspinatus muscle was diagnosed based on survey radiographs, arthrography, ultrasound, computed tomography (CT), and synovial fluid cytology. The dog underwent three sessions of extracorporeal shockwave therapy and substantial clinical improvement was observed. On follow-up examinations, only mild left forelimb lameness was evident following exercise, and changes in the intertubercular groove and at the supraglenoid tuberosity appeared less active on radiographs and CT. However, six months following treatment, mild degenerative joint disease was apparent.

Incidence of second malignancies for prostate cancer

INTRODUCTION There is a need to assess risk of second primary cancers in prostate cancer (PCa) patients, especially since PCa treatment may be associated with increased risk of second primary tumours. METHODS We calculated standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for second primary tumours comparing men diagnosed with PCa between 1980 and 2010 in the Canton of Zurich, Switzerland (n = 20,559), and the general male population in the Canton. RESULTS A total of 1,718 men developed a second primary tumour after PCa diagnosis, with lung and colon cancer being the most common (15 and 13% respectively). The SIR for overall second primary cancer was 1.11 (95%CI: 1.06-1.17). Site-specific SIRs varied from 1.19 (1.05-1.34) to 2.89 (2.62-4.77) for lung and thyroid cancer, respectively. When stratified by treatment, the highest SIR was observed for thyroid cancer (3.57 (1.30-7.76)) when undergoing surgery, whereas liver cancer was common when treated with radiotherapy (3.21 (1.54-5.90)) and kidney bladder was most prevalent for those on hormonal treatment (3.15 (1.93-4.87)). Stratification by time since PCa diagnosis showed a lower risk of cancer for men with PCa compared to the general population for the first four years, but then a steep increase in risk was observed. CONCLUSION In the Canton of Zurich, there was an increased risk of second primary cancers among men with PCa compared to the general population. Increased diagnostic activity after PCa diagnosis may partly explain increased risks within the first years of diagnosis, but time-stratified analyses indicated that increased risks remained and even increased over time.

Diversity of morphological patterns in supramolecular polymers formed from the amphiphilic oligomers of pyrenes

Herein we demonstrate that a substitution type of the pyrene in short amphiphilic oligomers determines a morphology of the assemblies formed. Thus, 1.6- and 2.7-linkages lead to a formation of micrometer-sized 2D supromolecular polymers with a constant thickness 2 nm (pictures A and B). These assemblies possess a high degree of an internal order: the interior consists of hydrophobic pyrenes and alkyl chains, whereas the exterior exists as a net of hydrophilic negatively charged phosphates. Contrary, a 1.8-linkage exclusiveley leads to a formation of long nanometer thick helical supramolecular polymers (picturee C). These structures tend to form even more complex assemblies (bundles, superhelixes). Moreover, for all samples the polymerization process occurs via a nucleation-elongation mechanism. To study Py3 self-assembly, we carried out whole set of spectroscopic (UV/vis, fluorescence, DLS) and microscopic experiments (AFM).

Formation of supramolecular polymers by chrysene oligomers

Supramolecular assembly of π-conjugated systems is of large interested due to the possibility to use them in electronic devices.[1] Chrysene is a polyaromatic hydrocarbon which has been studied e.g for organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs).[2] In continuation of our previous work involving the supramolecular polymerisation of pyrene oligomers [3] an oligomer consisting of three chrysenes linked by phophodiesters was synthesised (Chry3). UV-Vis measurements show that aggregates of Chry3 are formed in aqueous medium. This is illustrated by general hypochromicity, a change in vibronic band intensities and, in particular, the appearance of a red-shifted absorption band in the S0 → S2 transition. The data suggest the formation of J-aggregates. The formation of supramolecular polymers is further studied by temperature-dependent absorption- and fluorescence measurements, and by atomic force microscopy (AFM).

A modular LHC built on the DNA three-way junction

Over the past years, in numerous studies the DNA double helix serves as a scaffold for the controlled arrangement of functional molecules, including a wide range of different chromophores. Other nucleic acid structures like the DNA three-way junction have been exploited for this purpose as well. Recently, the successful development of DNA-based light-harvesting antenna systems have been reported. Herein, we describe the use of the DNA three-way junction (3WJ) as a versatile scaffold for the modular construction of an artificial light harvesting complex (LHC). The LHC is based on a modular construction in which a phenanthrene antenna is located in one of the three stems and the acceptor is brought into proximity of the antenna through the annealing of the third strand. Phenanthrene excitation (320 nm) is followed by energy transfer to pyrene (resulting in exciplex emission), perylenediimide (quencher) or a cyanine dye (cyanine fluorescence).

[Helminth control in the adult horse: the need for a re-orientation].

The epidemiological situation of strongyle infections in adult horses in Switzerland is characterized by a strong dominance of small strongyles (Cyathostominae) and an overall low level of egg shedding in the faeces. The prevailing attitude towards anthelmintic therapy considers neither husbandry conditions nor pasture hygiene measures. Instead, calendar-based routine medication, comprising usually 3 to 4 annual treatments, is the typical strategy. Such an approach, however, often results in an excessive administration of anthelmintics. With respect to the continuous spread of drug resistant cyathostomins a change of strategy seems inevitable. A consensus has been agreed on between equine parasitologists and clinicians of the Vetsuisse Faculty in Zurich and Berne to focus on the concept of a selective control approach, based on individual faecal egg counts as the central element. It is now recommended that clinically healthy horses (> 4 y) are treated only when their strongyle egg count is equal to or higher than 200 eggs per gram of faeces. A regular analysis of the strongyle population based on larval cultures, the control of drug efficacy, and quarantine measures for incoming horses are mandatory components of the concept. Recent experiences in several pilot farms have indicated that only 4 % of the McMaster analyses resulted in a deworming treatment. For horses that did not receive any nematicidal anthelmintic during the current season, a "safety" treatment is recommended at the end of the grazing period.