Mercado laboral calificado en Colombia: Estudio sobre el desequilibrio entre oferta y demanda de trabajo para los años 2020 y 2030

El propósito básico de esta investigación es identificar los desajustes (déficits o superávits) no estructurales entre la oferta y demanda de trabajo en Colombia para los años 2020 y 2030, así como interpretar los hallazgos y proponer elementos de estrategia para las empresas a fin de mitigar los efectos adversos del desajuste sobre su capacidad para atraer y retener talento. El argumento central del proyecto consiste en sostener que en un escenario no mayor a los 10 años la oferta de trabajo calificado en Colombia no será suficiente para (i) equilibrar el mercado y (ii) atender la demanda agregada de trabajo, debido a los cambios generacionales en la realidad demográfica del país, el bajo nivel de preparación de la fuerza laboral disponible y los altos índices de informalidad de los trabajadores y las empresas. Dentro de los resultados se presenta una proyección del comportamiento del mercado de trabajo, así como la magnitud del desequilibrio entre los agentes del mercado. Este estudio aplicado es una propuesta cuantitativa de aproximación a la crisis de talento que se revisa en otros estudios. Es un precedente sólido para profundizar con otros enfoques el futuro del trabajo en Colombia.

Diabetes gestacional como factor de riesgo para incontinencia urinaria: revisión sistemática de la literatura

La diabetes mellitus es una de las patologías frecuentes durante el embarazo, existe literatura que la ha relacionado con un mayor riesgo de aparición de incontinencia urinaria en el postparto patología que de manera clara afecta la calidad de vida de las mujeres, pero a la fecha la literatura no es concluyente. Con la presente revisión sistemática se pretendió evaluar la evidencia relacionada con la diabetes gestacional como causa de incontinencia urinaria en el postparto.

Mecanismes cel·lulars en la curació de ferides a Hirudo medicinalis

S'estudia la histologia normal de la paret corporal d'Hirudo medicinalis i els canvis morfogenètics que es donen durant el procés de cicatrització de ferides per incisió, cauterització i nitrat de plata. El procés de curació de ferides a Hirudo medicinalis consta d'una fase de formació d'un tap cel·lular, el pseudoblastema, d'un procés de reepitelització i de la formació d'un teixit cicatricial, com en els altres hirudinis estudiats (Myers, 1935; LeGore i Sparks, 1971; Cornec, 1984). Hem observat també el fenomen de la contracció de la ferida que permet l'acostament dels marges de la ferida. Formació i evolució del pseudoblastema El pseudoblastema, a diferència d'altres espècies estudiades, està format per un sol tipus cel·lular: les cèl·lules vasocentrals, provinents del teixit vasofibrós, una especialització del teixit connectiu. Aquestes cèl·lules estan capacitades per realitzar les diferents funcions que en espècies rincobdèl·lides realitzen diferents tipus cel·lulars. En concret: taponament de la ferida a través de la formació del pseudoblastema, fagocitosi dels teixits necrosats i regeneració, almenys d'una part, de la matriu connectiva cicatricial. També són responsables de la contracció de la ferida. Les cèl·lules vasocentrals en el seu estadi de repòs es troben en el teixit vasofibrós formant agrupacions coherents, però sense mostrar unions intercel·lulars especialitzades visibles en ME. La coherència del grup queda assegurada per les interdigitacions entre les cèl·lules vasocentrals i probablement per unions tipus adherens o especialitzades. Les unions amb la matriu són de tipus adherens. Aquestes cèl·lules vasocentrals presenten feixos de filaments d'actina força conspicus. En produir-se una ferida les cèl·lules vasocentrals s'activen, desconnecten les unions intercel·lulars i amb la matriu i migren cap a la zona afectada, on s'acumulen. El pseudoblastema actua com un tap cel·lular que funciona de forma eficient per tancar la ferida en un plaç de temps relativament curt. El pseudoblastema forma un teixit coherent amb unions intercel·lulars tipus adherens, caracteritzades per material electrodens en la cara intracitoplasmàtica, feixos de filaments d'actina que hi convergeixen i espais intercel·lulars petits, de 17-20 mm, atravessats per petites fibril·les. Un cop finalitzat el procés de reepitelització, es produeix una contracció de la ferida. Es produeix per la retracció del pseudoblastema cap a l'interior de l'animal. El pseudoblastema disminueix la seva amplària i arrossega els teixits contigus provocant un tancament. La força motriu que provoca la retracció i l'arrossegament dels teixits vindria donada per la presència dels filaments d'actina a les cèl·lules del pseudoblastema, els quals durant aquesta fase es tornen mes conspicus. La presència d'unions intercel·lulars especialitzades característiques de la fase de contracció, està relacionada amb la transmissió de la força de tensió. Aquestes unions connecten els feixos de filaments d'actina de les cèl·lules amb la matriu o d'una cèl·lula a altre a través d'espais intercel·lulars força amples en els que s'observa material electrodens. Reepitelització L'epitelització s'inicia quan el pseudoblastema està consolidat i segueix el mateix patró que la reepitelització de ferides en epitelis monoestratificats de vertebrats (Stem i DePalma, 1983, és a dir, per migració de tota la capa per sobre del substrat, segons l'anomenat model de lliscament. Les glàndules unicel·lulars mucoses del tegument degeneren abans de produir-se la migració epitelial i posteriorment, un cop consolidat l'epiteli a sobre de la ferida, es diferencien a partir de les cèl·lules epitelials. Durant l'epitelització es produeixen canvis importants en el citosquelet i les unions basals de les cèl·lules epitelials. En canvi, el complex d'unió lateral es manté durant tot el procés. En iniciar-se la migració els tonofilaments es desconnecten dels hemidesmosomes cuticulars i dèrmics i es reagrupen al voltant del nucli, a la vegada que els hemidesmosomes dèrmics es desconnecten de la làmina basal. Un cop acabada la migració, les cèl·lules epitelials estableixen unions basals amb les cèl·lules del pseudoblastema. Aquestes unions no són hemidesmosomes sinó que presenten el mateix aspecte que les unions intercel·lulars del pseudoblastema. Els hemidesmosomes no es tornen a formar fins que les cèl·lules epitelials han restablert la membrana basal. La regeneració de la membrana basal no s'inicia fins que no s'ha començat a regenerar matriu connectiva a la zona cicatricial. Regeneració de la cicatriu Al mateix temps que es dona el fenomen de contracció, s'observa regeneració de la matriu connectiva entre les cèl·lules del pseudoblastema. Aquestes cèl·lules són responsables almenys del recobriment fibrós que presenten en aquest estadi, durant el qual mostren sàculs del reticle endoplasmàtic rugós molt dilatats, característics de cèl·lules que secreten constituents de la matriu. A més, s'observa infiltració de matriu connectiva i processos citoplasmàtics dels fibròcits en els marges del pseudoblastema. En la matriu del teixit connectiu normal s'observen fibres que estan constituïdes per un còrtex de fibril·les col·làgenes organitzades al voltant dels processos citoplasmàtics dels fibròcits. Les fibres del teixit connectiu peridigestiu, d'uns 1,2-1,9 mm de diàmetre, presenten el còrtex prim, amb les fibril·les organitzades paral·lelament a l'eix de la fibra. En canvi, les fibres de la dermis i teixit connectiu intramuscular, d'uns 2,5-7,1 mm de diàmetre, tenen el còrtex gruixut, amb fibril·les que s'organitzen paral·lelament en la zona proximal a la medul·la i de forma desorganitzada en la part més distal. Als 8 mesos la cicatriu encara és detectable. La matriu cicatricial presenta fibres connectives del tipus prim i força material fibril·lar desorganitzat disposat laxament. S'observa colonització per part de fibròcits, cromatòfors, petites fibres musculars i nervis.

Women in Post –1961 Goa : Problems and Challenges

When the women of Goa begin to reminiscence about the last four and a half decades of Goan history it will be a journey of mixed responses, for the women’s movement has witnessed gains and losses, successes and failures, times of expression and times of being silenced, times of vibrant activity and times of lulls and importantly, times of prolonged protests against markets and developmental forces, and media projections. For decades the women of Goa have taken a vociferous stand against arbitrary Development practices that the Government has attempted to foist upon the people of the State and especially its women. For decades the women of Goa have demanded for a gendered perspective and an equal representation in the development processes in the State.

Estudo transversal da incidência de sinais radiográficos de doença degenerativa das articulações em gatos domésticos

O interesse pela Osteoartrite, ou Doença Degenerativa das Articulações em felinos, é relativamente recente. É um assunto pouco investigado e sub-diagnosticado na clínica de animais de companhia no nosso país. O objectivo deste estudo é o de determinar a incidência de sinais radiográficos da doença numa amostra aleatória de gatos domésticos. Foi, deste modo, realizado um estudo transversal numa amostra de 50 gatos, sem sinais aparentes de doença ortopédica, inseridos em 4 faixas etárias (0-5 anos, 6-10,11-15 e 16-20 anos). Realizaram-se cerca de 16 projecções radiográficas em cada paciente, observando e analisando as articulações dos esqueletos apendicular e axial. Nenhum dos animais foi sedado para as projecções radiográficas. Foi ainda feita uma análise estatística para investigar uma possível relação entre os dados dos pacientes, análises bioquímicas, hemograma, I-STAT e urianálise e a severidade da doença. Este estudo permitiu mostrar que 74% dos animais possuíam evidência radiográfica da doença. As articulações mais afectadas em ordem decrescente foram a escapulo-umeral, a úmero-radio-ulnar, a tarso-metatarso-falângica e a coxo-femoral. Foram encontradas relações estatisticamente significativas com a idade e com valores alterados de glucose e eosinófilos. Foi possível concluir que a Doença Degenerativa das Articulações é uma doença comum nos gatos domésticos e requer mais investigação.

Museum of the City of São Paulo: A new paradigm of City Museums in the Era of Megalopolises

The City is a tomography of the present, indicating to the future, strata of past times. Nowadays city growth averages one million people every week; while back in 1950 there were eighty six cities with more than one million inhabitants, today they are four hundred all over the world. However the most significant effect of the urban process is, doubtless, the explosion of megacities. It took one century for the urban population – around three point four billion inhabitants – to surpass the number of people in the country, but United Nations projections indicate that by 2025, urban population will reach 61% of the total. Creating a new city museum in São Paulo requires that, in a first analysis, one should consider as geographic area of study some fifteen hundred square kilometres corresponding to the patrimonial intervention area. That is the area of the Municipality, politically divided into ninety six districts where eleven million people live, while approximately twenty million people live in the metropolitan area

La identidad transfigurada: las prácticas barrocas de ocultamiento en el discurso ilustrado de Eugenio Espejo (Dossier: Novela, historia y nación en América Latina)

Este texto toma por objeto el conjunto de la obra de Eugenio Espejo (Quito, 1747-1795) para recorrer en ella su complejo sistema de desdoblamientos, proyecciones y ocultamientos –fundamentados en el mecanismo del anónimo– que la ubican como el caso más interesante y significativo de las letras ecuatorianas en lo que se refiere a la génesis autoral. El propósito de Landázuri es sintetizar y ordenar la información existente sobre los procedimientos de desdoblamiento o anonimato visibles en la obra de Espejo y tratar de comprenderlos a la luz de los mecanismos discursivos del barroco, enfrentados –o asimilados– en el paradigma dieciochesco de la Ilustración. Para ello, acude a las tesis de Bolívar Echeverría sobre el “ethos barroco” y sus relaciones con la concepción de modernidad, lo cual sin duda permite una comprensión bastante amplia de lo que ocurre en la obra y cosmovisión de Espejo como síntesis y caso significativo de su época.

Monitoring present day changes in water vapour and the radiative energy balance using satellite data, reanalyses and models

A combination of satellite data, reanalysis products and climate models are combined to monitor changes in water vapour, clear-sky radiative cooling of the atmosphere and precipitation over the period 1979-2006. Climate models are able to simulate observed increases in column integrated water vapour (CWV) with surface temperature (Ts) over the ocean. Changes in the observing system lead to spurious variability in water vapour and clear-sky longwave radiation in reanalysis products. Nevertheless all products considered exhibit a robust increase in clear-sky longwave radiative cooling from the atmosphere to the surface; clear-sky longwave radiative cooling of the atmosphere is found to increase with Ts at the rate of ~4 Wm-2 K-1 over tropical ocean regions of mean descending vertical motion. Precipitation (P) is tightly coupled to atmospheric radiative cooling rates and this implies an increase in P with warming at a slower rate than the observed increases in CWV. Since convective precipitation depends on moisture convergence, the above implies enhanced precipitation over convective regions and reduced precipitation over convectively suppressed regimes. To quantify this response, observed and simulated changes in precipitation rate are analysed separately over regions of mean ascending and descending vertical motion over the tropics. The observed response is found to be substantially larger than the model simulations and climate change projections. It is currently not clear whether this is due to deficiencies in model parametrizations or errors in satellite retrievals.

The effect of doubled CO2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system. II: Changing ENSO regimes

Integrations of a fully-coupled climate model with and without flux adjustments in the equatorial oceans are performed under 2×CO2 conditions to explore in more detail the impact of increased greenhouse gas forcing on the monsoon-ENSO system. When flux adjustments are used to correct some systematic model biases, ENSO behaviour in the modelled future climate features distinct irregular and periodic (biennial) regimes. Comparison with the observed record yields some consistency with ENSO modes primarily based on air-sea interaction and those dependent on basinwide ocean wave dynamics. Simple theory is also used to draw analogies between the regimes and irregular (stochastically forced) and self-excited oscillations respectively. Periodic behaviour is also found in the Asian-Australian monsoon system, part of an overall biennial tendency of the model under these conditions related to strong monsoon forcing and increased coupling between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) thus serves as a useful descriptor for the coupled monsoon-ENSO system in this case. The presence of obvious regime changes in the monsoon-ENSO system on interdecadal timescales, when using flux adjustments, suggests there may be greater uncertainty in projections of future climate, although further modelling studies are required to confirm the realism and cause of such changes.

Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes

Climate models suggest that extreme precipitation events will become more common in an anthropogenically warmed climate. However, observational limitations have hindered a direct evaluation of model-projected changes in extreme precipitation. We used satellite observations and model simulations to examine the response of tropical precipitation events to naturally driven changes in surface temperature and atmospheric moisture content. These observations reveal a distinct link between rainfall extremes and temperature, with heavy rain events increasing during warm periods and decreasing during cold periods. Furthermore, the observed amplification of rainfall extremes is found to be larger than that predicted by models, implying that projections of future changes in rainfall extremes in response to anthropogenic global warming may be underestimated.

Vertical structure of anthropogenic zonal-mean atmospheric circulation change

The atmospheric circulation changes predicted by climate models are often described using sea level pressure, which generally shows a strengthening of the mid-latitude westerlies. Recent observed variability is dominated by the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) which is equivalent barotropic, so that wind variations of the same sign are seen at all levels. However, in model predictions of the response to anthropogenic forcing, there is a well-known enhanced warming at low levels over the northern polar cap in winter. This means that there is a strong baroclinic component to the response. The projection of the response onto a NAM-like zonal index varies with height. While at the surface most models project positively onto the zonal index, throughout most of the depth of the troposphere many of the models give negative projections. The response to anthropogenic forcing therefore has a distinctive baroclinic signature which is very different to the NAM

Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

Previous assessments of the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality use the "delta method" to create temperature projection time series that are applied to temperature-mortality models to estimate future mortality impacts. The delta method means that climate model bias in the modelled present does not influence the temperature projection time series and impacts. However, the delta method assumes that climate change will result only in a change in the mean temperature but there is evidence that there will also be changes in the variability of temperature with climate change. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of considering changes in temperature variability with climate change in impacts assessments of future heat-related mortality. We investigate future heatrelated mortality impacts in six cities (Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney) by applying temperature projections from the UK Meteorological Office HadCM3 climate model to the temperature-mortality models constructed and validated in Part 1. We investigate the impacts for four cases based on various combinations of mean and variability changes in temperature with climate change. The results demonstrate that higher mortality is attributed to increases in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change rather than with the change in mean temperature alone. This has implications for interpreting existing impacts estimates that have used the delta method. We present a novel method for the creation of temperature projection time series that includes changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change and is not influenced by climate model bias in the modelled present. The method should be useful for future impacts assessments. Few studies consider the implications that the limitations of the climate model may have on the heatrelated mortality impacts. Here, we demonstrate the importance of considering this by conducting an evaluation of the daily and extreme temperatures from HadCM3, which demonstrates that the estimates of future heat-related mortality for Dallas and Lisbon may be overestimated due to positive climate model bias. Likewise, estimates for Boston and London may be underestimated due to negative climate model bias. Finally, we briefly consider uncertainties in the impacts associated with greenhouse gas emissions and acclimatisation. The uncertainties in the mortality impacts due to different emissions scenarios of greenhouse gases in the future varied considerably by location. Allowing for acclimatisation to an extra 2°C in mean temperatures reduced future heat-related mortality by approximately half that of no acclimatisation in each city.

Subseasonal extremes of precipitation and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon in a climate-change scenario

Changes to the behaviour of subseasonal precipitation extremes and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon are assessed in this study using pre-industrial and 2 × CO2 integrations of the Hadley Centre coupled model HadCM3, which is able to simulate the monsoon seasonal cycle reasonably. At 2 × CO2, mean summer rainfall increases slightly, especially over central and northern India. The mean intensity of daily precipitation during the monsoon is found to increase, consistent with fewer wet days, and there are increases to heavy rain events beyond changes in the mean alone. The chance of reaching particular thresholds of heavy rainfall is found to approximately double over northern India, increasing the likelihood of damaging floods on a seasonal basis. The local distribution of such projections is uncertain, however, given the large spread in mean monsoon rainfall change and associated extremes amongst even the most recent coupled climate models. The measured increase of the heaviest precipitation events over India is found to be broadly in line with the degree of atmospheric warming and associated increases in specific humidity, lending a degree of predictability to changes in rainfall extremes. Active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon, important particularly due to their effect on agricultural output, are shown to be reasonably represented in HadCM3, in particular with some degree of northward propagation. We note an intensification of both active and break events, particularly when measured against the annual cycle, although there is no suggestion of any change to the duration or likelihood of monsoon breaks. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Examination of Relationships between Clear-Sky Longwave Radiation and Aspects of the Atmospheric Hydrological Cycle in Climate Models, Reanalyses, and Observations

Relationships between clear-sky longwave radiation and aspects of the atmospheric hydrological cycle are quantified in models, reanalyses, and observations over the period 1980-2000. The robust sensitivity of clear-sky surface net longwave radiation (SNLc) to column-integrated water vapor (CWV) of 1-1.5 Wm(-2) mm(-1) combined with the positive relationship between CWV and surface temperature (T-s) explains substantial increases in clear-sky longwave radiative cooling of the atmosphere (Q(LWc)) to the surface over the period. Clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation (OLRc) is highly sensitive to changes in aerosol and greenhouse gas concentrations in addition to temperature and humidity. Over tropical ocean regions of mean descent, Q(LWc) increases with T-s at similar to 3.5-5.5 W m(-2) K-1 for reanalyses, estimates derived from satellite data, and models without volcanic forcing included. Increased Q(LWc) with warming across the tropical oceans helps to explain model ensemble mean increases in precipitation of 0.1-0.15 mm day(-1) K-1, which are primarily determined by ascent regions where precipitation increases at the rate expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron equation. The implications for future projections in the atmospheric hydrological cycle are discussed

Decadal Prediction. Can It Be Skillful?

A new field of study, “decadal prediction,” is emerging in climate science. Decadal prediction lies between seasonal/interannual forecasting and longer-term climate change projections, and focuses on time-evolving regional climate conditions over the next 10–30 yr. Numerous assessments of climate information user needs have identified this time scale as being important to infrastructure planners, water resource managers, and many others. It is central to the information portfolio required to adapt effectively to and through climatic changes. At least three factors influence time-evolving regional climate at the decadal time scale: 1) climate change commitment (further warming as the coupled climate system comes into adjustment with increases of greenhouse gases that have already occurred), 2) external forcing, particularly from future increases of greenhouse gases and recovery of the ozone hole, and 3) internally generated variability. Some decadal prediction skill has been demonstrated to arise from the first two of these factors, and there is evidence that initialized coupled climate models can capture mechanisms of internally generated decadal climate variations, thus increasing predictive skill globally and particularly regionally. Several methods have been proposed for initializing global coupled climate models for decadal predictions, all of which involve global time-evolving three-dimensional ocean data, including temperature and salinity. An experimental framework to address decadal predictability/prediction is described in this paper and has been incorporated into the coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Model, phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments, some of which will be assessed for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These experiments will likely guide work in this emerging field over the next 5 yr.