Théorie analytique des probabilités /

Mode of access: Internet.

Théorie analytique des probabilités /

Mode of access: Internet.

Exposition de la thèorie des chances et des probabilites /

Mode of access: Internet.

Essai sur les probabilités de la durée de la vie humaine d'où l'on déduit la maniere de déterminer les rentes viageres, tant simples qu'en tontines ... et accompagné d'un grand nombre de tables /

Mode of access: Internet.

Traité élémentaire du calcul des probabilités /

Mode of access: Internet.

OS SENTIDOS DO FUTEBOL ESPETÁCULO PARA ESTUDANTES DE DISTINTAS CLASSES SOCIAIS

O presente estudo busca identificar em que medida o pertencimento de classe social interfere nos sentidos e perspectivas do jovem brasileiro frente ao futebol espetáculo, bem como compreender os mecanismos sociais que determinam a decisão de os sujeitos investirem na carreira profissional esportiva em detrimento da trajetória escolar longa. Começamos com uma abordagem sociológica, a análise crítica dos processos de difusão, massificação e profissionalização do futebol ocorridas no contexto da sociedade pós-industrial. Enfocamos a conflituosa mutação da modalidade, inicialmente elitizada com fins social-distintivos para esporte de massa ideal de ascensão social da classe popular , além da dependência com a mídia, das razões que levaram a caracterizar-se como produto da indústria cultural, culminando com a transformação do futebol em mercadoria submetida às leis e lógica da sociedade de consumo. Em seguida, entrelaçamos as relações de poder, aliança e concorrência dos agentes sociais que participam do complexo campo das práticas esportivas com os canais com que o público jovem estabelece contato com o esporte espetáculo. Neste aspecto, especial atenção foi dada à mídia, difusora da ideologia de uma sociedade capitalista aberta, que reforça a idéia do esporte como via de ascensão social para indivíduos de baixa renda, na mesma medida em que oculta em seu discurso as reais probabilidades de concretização do sucesso esportivo. A pesquisa de campo foi realizada em duas escolas do município de São Bernardo do Campo (SP), uma da rede pública estadual e outra da rede particular de ensino. Assim, constituímos dois grupos com alunos de distintas classes sociais, compostos por estudantes do 1º ano do Ensino Médio, sexo masculino, com 15 anos de idade e praticantes de futebol nas aulas de Educação Física. Metodologicamente, fizemos uso da observação participante e de entrevistas como instrumentos para a coleta de dados. Conjugadas aos objetivos do estudo, estruturamos a análise do material colhido em seis categorias, articulando questões sobre o prosseguimento nos estudos e o trabalho, as tendências para a pratica esportiva profissional, as representações sociais em torno do futebol, os usos e costumes no tempo livre e as expectativas da pratica esportiva implicadas pela herança cultural familiar. Como referencial teórico de análise, utilizamos de Pierre Bourdieu os conceitos de campo, habitus, estratégia, capital econômico, social e, principalmente, capital cultural, partindo da hipótese de que o nível cultural dos alunos e seus familiares interferem nos sentidos e formas de apropriação do esporte. Entre outras conclusões, obtivemos como resultado a configuração de uma trajetória esportiva profissional voltada para os alunos de baixa classe social, em oposição à trajetória escolar longa, estrategicamente adotada pelos alunos de classe social alta.(AU)

PERCEPÇÃO DE FATORES E SITUAÇÕES DE RISCO EM MOTORISTAS INFRATORES

O presente estudo teve como objetivo verificar a percepção de situações de acidentes de trânsito por motoristas infratores; levantar dados sócio-demográficos, fatores de riscos e fatores de proteção de motoristas infratores, como também verificou a percepção de invulnerabilidade destes motoristas infratores. A coleta de dados foi realizada através da aplicação de Escala de Percepção de Invulnerabilidade, questionário sócio-demográfico que visou caracterizar o condutor, e entrevista semi-estruturada com finalidade de conhecer as ações do condutor ao volante. A amostra foi realizada por acessibilidade. Foi adotado como critério de inclusão na amostra motoristas habilitados que acumularam mais de vinte pontos em seu prontuário da Carteira de habilitação. O estudo teve um total de 427 sujeitos, sendo 325 do gênero masculino e 102 do gênero feminino. As infrações mais cometidas foram as gravíssimas para os sujeitos habilitados entre 6 e 15 anos, independente do gênero. Em relação à Escala de Invulnerabilidade, identificou-se que a autopercepção positiva foi superior ao senso de proteção e a crença na invulnerabilidade dos sujeitos. Os sujeitos entrevistados têm em média 38 pontos no prontuário, mas consideram-se motoristas cautelosos, atentos, cuidadosos, preocupados com os outros e que procuram obedecer às leis. Verificou-se que o risco está associado com a idéia de perigo, causar danos a outras pessoas ou comprometer sua segurança. As situações de risco estão associadas ao volume excessivo de veículos, alta velocidade, não obediência às leis de trânsito, veículos mal conservados e falta de sinalização. A percepção de riscos tem muito mais a ver com a singularidade do indivíduo diante de algum evento do que com uma estimativa correta de probabilidades. Constatou-se que os níveis elevados de ameaça sempre apresentam estratégias cognitivas de minimização do risco e do seu impacto. Constatou-se que as infrações de trânsito que ocorrem têm a ver com o contexto social. Investigar sobre as possíveis variáveis psicológicas nesse contexto também é uma tarefa de grande amplitude. Os estudos realizados nessa área da psicologia de trânsito no Brasil podem dar mais um passo em direção à compreensão da complexa rede de relações envolvendo o homem, o trânsito e o ambiente.(AU)

PADRÕES DE PRODUTIVIDADE EM PESQUISA NA LITERATURA DE FINANÇAS: UM ESTUDO BIBLIOMÉTRICO NOS PRINCIPAIS PERIÓDICOS CIENTÍFICOS NACIONAIS NO PERÍODO DE 2005 A 2014

A Administração Financeira surge no início do século XIX juntamente com o movimento de consolidação das grandes empresas e a formação dos mercados nacionais americano enquanto que no Brasil os primeiros estudos ocorrem a partir da segunda metade do século XX. Desde entãoo país conseguiu consolidar alguns centros de excelência em pesquisa, formar grupo significativo de pesquisadores seniores e expandir as áreas de pesquisa no campo, contudo, ainda são poucos os trabalhos que buscam retratar as características da produtividade científica em Finanças. Buscando contribuir para a melhor compreensão do comportamento produtivo dessa área a presente pesquisa estuda sua produção científica, materializada na forma de artigos digitais, publicados em 24 conceituados periódicos nacionais classificados nos estratos Qualis/CAPES A2, B1 e B2 da Área de Administração, Ciências Contábeis e Turismo. Para tanto são aplicadas a Lei de Bradford, Lei do Elitismo de Price e Lei de Lotka. Pela Lei de Bradford são identificadas três zonas de produtividade sendo o núcleo formado por três revistas, estando uma delas classificada no estrato Qualis/CAPES B2, o que evidencia a limitação de um recorte tendo como único critério a classificação Qualis/CAPES. Para a Lei do Elitismo de Price, seja pela contagem direta ou completa, não identificamos comportamento de uma elite semelhante ao apontado pela teoria e que conta com grande número de autores com apenas uma publicação.Aplicando-se o modelo do Poder Inverso Generalizado, calculado por Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários (MQO), verificamos que produtividade dos pesquisadores, quando feita pela contagem direta, se adequa àquela definida pela Lei de Lotka ao nível de α = 0,01 de significância, contudo, pela contagem completa não podemos confirmar a hipótese de homogeneidade das distribuições, além do fato de que nas duas contagens a produtividade analisada pelo parâmetro n é maior que 2 e, portanto, a produtividade do pesquisadores de finanças é menor que a defendida pela teoria.

O uso de modelos ocultos de Markov no estudo do fluxo de rios intermitentes

In this work, we present our understanding about the article of Aksoy [1], which uses Markov chains to model the flow of intermittent rivers. Then, we executed an application of his model in order to generate data for intermittent streamflows, based on a data set of Brazilian streams. After that, we build a hidden Markov model as a proposed new approach to the problem of simulation of such flows. We used the Gamma distribution to simulate the increases and decreases in river flows, along with a two-state Markov chain. The motivation for us to use a hidden Markov model comes from the possibility of obtaining the same information that the Aksoy’s model provides, but using a single tool capable of treating the problem as a whole, and not through multiple independent processes

Diferenciais de mortalidade adulta por nível de escolaridade no Brasil e regiões

The study of mortality by various differentials has been an important tool to guide public health policies, due to better describing the events of deaths in a population. This research aims to seek disparities in mortality according to educational level, sex and adulthood in large Brazilian regions and consequently for Brazil as a whole. A vast literature has shown that people with more education tend to have lower risk of death. Studies on inequalities in mortality by level of education in Brazil are still very specific and has still known very little about Brazil about mortality according to educational level, due to lack of information about the well-filled school in the records of deaths arising from the Mortality Information System (MIS) of the Ministry of Health. This data source has shown improvement in the coverage of sub reports in the last decade, however, it has still perceived negligence in completing the question regarding schooling of death (about 30% of registered deaths in 2010 to Brazil, Given this scenario, this work contributes to the national literature on the behavior of adult mortality differentials having as proposed, using data from the new variable mortality of the 2010 Census (CD 2010), assuming the characteristics of education of the head the household for deaths occurring in the same. It is therefore considered that the probability of mortality is homogeneous within the household. Events of deaths were corrected only for the records come from households where the head possessed levels of schooling and Instruction Elementary Education No Incomplete and Primary Education and Secondary Education Complete Incomplete through the Generations Extinct Adjusted method. With deaths already corrected, probabilities of death were calculated between 15 and 60 years life, as well as tables by sex and level of education to all regions of Brazil. No que se refere às probabilidades de morte por idade, nas idades entre 15 e 60 anos as maiores probabilidades seguem um gradiente, maior probabilidade para os menos escolarizados. Results corroborate the literature, the more educated the population is, the greater the life expectancy. In all Brazilian regions, life expectancy of the female population is greater than that of men at all levels of schooling. With respect to probabilities of death by age between the ages of 15 and 60 years the most likely follow a gradient, most likely to the least educated. At older ages (from 70 years), this behavior has presented another pattern, the lowest level of education has the lowest odds in the regions, North, Northeast, South and Midwest, except in the Southeast region

Tomada de decisão individual e aprendizado em Dinoponera quadríceps (Ponerinae, Hymenoptera) forrageando em ambientes dinâmicos

When searching for food, animals often make decisions of where to go, how long to stay in a foraging area and whether or not to return to the last visited spot. These decisions can be enhanced by cognitive traits and adjusted based on previous experience. In social insects such as ants, foraging efficiency have an impact on both individual and colony level. The present study investigated, in the laboratory, the effect of distance from food, capture success and food size, and reward rate on decisions of where to forage in Dinoponera quadriceps, a ponerine ant that forage solitarily and individually make their foraging decisions. We also investigated the influence of learning on the performance of workers over successive trips searching for food by measuring the patch residence time in each foraging trip. Four scenarios were created differing in food reward rates, food size offered and distances colony-food site. Our work has shown that as a rule-of-thumb, workers of D. quadriceps return to the place where a prey item was found on the previous trip, regardless of distance, food size and reward rate. When ants did not capture preys, they were more likely to change path to search for food. However, in one of the scenarios, this decision to switch paths when unsuccessful was less evident, possibly due to the greater variation of possible outcomes ants could experience in this scenario and cognitive constraints of D. quadriceps to predict variations of food distribution. Our results also indicated a learning process of routes of exploration as well as the food site conditions for exploration. After repeated trips, foragers reduced the patch residence time in areas that they did not capture food and quickly changed of foraging area, increasing their foraging efficiency.

Rotação e processos de acreção e coalescência em sistemas planetários e sistemas binários

The discovery of giant stars in the spectral regions G and K, showing moderate to rapid rotation and single behavior, namely with constant radial velocity, represents one important topic of study in Stellar Astrophysics. Indeed, such anomalous rotation clearly violates the theoretical predictions on the evolution of stellar rotation, since in evolved evolutionary stages is expected that the single stars essentially have low rotation due to the evolutionary expansion. This property is well-established from the observational point of view, with different studies showing that for single giant stars of spectral types G and K values of the rotation are typically smaller than 5kms−1 . This Thesis seeks an effective contribution to solving the paradigm described above, aiming to search for single stars of spectral types G and K with anomalous rotation, tipically rotation of moderate to rapid, in other luminosity classes. In this context, we analyzed a large stellar sample consisting of 2010 apparently single stars of luminosity classes IV, III, II and Ib with spectral types G and K, with rotational velocity v sin i and radial velocity measurements obtained from observations made by CORAVEL spectrometers. As a first result of impact we discovered the presence of anomalous rotators also among subgiants, bright giants and supergiants stars, namelly stars of luminosity classes IV, II and Ib, in contrast to previous studies, that reported anomalous rotators only in the luminosity class III classic giants. Such a finding of great significance because it allows us to analyze the presence of anomalous rotation at different intervals of mass, since the luminosity classes considered here cover a mass range between 0.80 and 20MJ, approximately. In the present survey we discovered 1 subgiant, 9 giants, 2 bright giants and 5 Ib supergiants, in spectral regions G and K, with values of v sin i ≥ 10kms−1 and single behavior. This amount of 17 stars corresponds to a frequency of 0.8% of G and K single evolved stars with anomalous rotation in the mentioned classes of luminosities, listed at the Bright Star Catalog, which is complete to visual magnitude 6.3. Given these new findings, based on a stellar sample complete in visual magnitude, as that of the Bright Star Catalog, we conducted a comparative statistical analysis using the Kolmogorov- Smirnov test, from where we conclude that the distributions of rotational velocity, v sin i, for single evolved stars with anomalous rotation in luminosity classes III and II, are similar to the distributions of v sin i for spectroscopic binary systems with evolved components with the same spectral type and luminosity class. This vii result indicates that the process of coalescence between stars of a binary system might be a possible mechanism to explain the observed abnormal rotation in the referred abnormal rotators, at least among the giants and bright giants, where the rotation in excess would be associated with the transfer of angular momentum for the star resulting from the merger. Another important result of this Thesis concerns the behavior of the infrared emission in most of the stars with anomalous rotation here studied, where 14 stars of the sample tend to have an excess in IR compared with single stars with low rotation, within of their luminosity class. This property represents an additional link in the search for the physical mechanisms responsible for the abnormal observed rotation, since recent theoretical studies show that the accretion of objects of sub-stellar mass, such as brown dwarfs and giant planets, by the hosting star, can significantly raise its rotation, producing also a circumstellar dust disk. This last result seems to point in that direction, since it is not expected that dust disks occurring during the stage of star formation can survive until the stages of subgiants, giants and supergiants Ib. In summary, in this Thesis, besides the discovery of single G and K evolved stars of luminosity classes IV, II and Ib with anomalously high rotation compared to what is predicted by stellar evolution theory, we also present the frequency of these abnormal rotators in a stellar sample complete to visual magnitude 6.3. We also present solid evidence that coalescence processes in stellar binary systems and processes of accretion of brown dwarfs star or giant planets, by the hosting stars, can act as mechanisms responsible for the puzzling phenomenon of anomalous rotation in single evolved stars.

Modelagem estatística e atribuições dos eventos de precipitação extrema na Amazônia brasileira

Intense precipitation events (IPE) have been causing great social and economic losses in the affected regions. In the Amazon, these events can have serious impacts, primarily for populations living on the margins of its countless rivers, because when water levels are elevated, floods and/or inundations are generally observed. Thus, the main objective of this research is to study IPE, through Extreme Value Theory (EVT), to estimate return periods of these events and identify regions of the Brazilian Amazon where IPE have the largest values. The study was performed using daily rainfall data of the hydrometeorological network managed by the National Water Agency (Agência Nacional de Água) and the Meteorological Data Bank for Education and Research (Banco de Dados Meteorológicos para Ensino e Pesquisa) of the National Institute of Meteorology (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia), covering the period 1983-2012. First, homogeneous rainfall regions were determined through cluster analysis, using the hierarchical agglomerative Ward method. Then synthetic series to represent the homogeneous regions were created. Next EVT, was applied in these series, through Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The goodness of fit of these distributions were evaluated by the application of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, which compares the cumulated empirical distributions with the theoretical ones. Finally, the composition technique was used to characterize the prevailing atmospheric patterns for the occurrence of IPE. The results suggest that the Brazilian Amazon has six pluvial homogeneous regions. It is expected more severe IPE to occur in the south and in the Amazon coast. More intense rainfall events are expected during the rainy or transitions seasons of each sub-region, with total daily precipitation of 146.1, 143.1 and 109.4 mm (GEV) and 201.6, 209.5 and 152.4 mm (GPD), at least once year, in the south, in the coast and in the northwest of the Brazilian Amazon, respectively. For the south Amazonia, the composition analysis revealed that IPE are associated with the configuration and formation of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Along the coast, intense precipitation events are associated with mesoscale systems, such Squall Lines. In Northwest Amazonia IPE are apparently associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone and/or local convection.

Síndrome de Guillain-Barré: epidemiologia, prognóstico e fatores de risco

Introduction. Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is an immune-mediated polyneuropathy and the principal cause of acute neuromuscular paralysis. The most prominent GBS subtypes are: acute inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy (AIDP), acute motor axonal neuropathy (AMAN), acute motor-sensory axonal neuropathy (AMSAN) and Fisher syndrome (FS). Differences in geographical distribution of variants have been reported. In Brazil, there are few studies describing the characteristics of GBS, but none on the frequency of GBS variants and their clinical manifestations. Infection-induced aberrant immune response resulting from molecular mimicry and formation of cross-reacting antibodies, contribute to complement activation. Functional biallelic polymorphism in immunoglobulin receptors that influence the affinity of IgG subclasses and the type of immune response have been described, suggesting genetic susceptibility to developing disease. It remains unclear whether individuals carrying different FCGR alleles have differential risk for GBS and⁄or disease severity. The goals of this study were: (1) To characterize GBS and describe the clinical findings in a cohort of patients with GBS from the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil; (2) to determine whether polymorphism in FCGR were associated with development of GBS, and (3) to tease out whether the global gene expression studies could be a tool to identify pathways and transcriptional networks which could be regulated and decrease the time of disease. Methods. Clinical and laboratory data for 149 cases of GBS diagnosed from 1994 to 2013 were analyzed. Genomic DNA and total RNA were extracted from whole blood. Antigangliosides antibodies were determined in the sera. In addition, we also assessed whether FCGR polymorphism are present in GBS (n=141) and blood donors (n=364), and global gene expressions were determined for 12 participants with GBS. Blood samples were collected at the diagnosis and post-recovery. Results. AIDP was the most frequent variant (81.8%) of GBS, followed by AMAN (14.7%) and AMSAN (3.3%). The incidence of GBS was 0.3 ⁄ 100,000 people for the state of Rio Grande do Norte and cases occurred at a younger age. GBS was preceded by infections, with the axonal variant associated with episodes of diarrhea (P = 0.025). Proximal weakness was more frequent in AIDP, and distal weakness predominant in the axonal variant. Compared to 42.4% of cases with AIDP (P<0.0001), 84.6% of cases with the axonal variant had nadir in <10 days. Individuals with the axonal variant took longer to recover deambulation (P<0.0001). The mortality of GBS was 5.3%. A worse outcome was related to an axonal variant (OR17.063; P=0.03) and time required to improve one point in the Hughes functional scale (OR 1.028; P=0.03). The FCGR genotypes and allele frequencies did not differ significantly between the patients with GBS and the controls (FCGR2A p=0.367 and FCGR3A p=0.2430). Global gene expression using RNAseq showed variation in transcript coding for protein isoforms during acute phase of disease. Conclusions. The annual incidence of GBS was 0.3 per 100,00 and there was no seasonal pattern. A predominance of the AIDP variant was seen, and the incidence of the disease decreased with age. The distribution of weakness is a function of the clinical variants, and individuals with the axonal variant had a poorer prognosis. Early diagnosis and variant identification leads to proper intervention decreasing in long-term morbidity. FCGR polymorphisms do not seem to influence susceptibility to GBS in this population. This study found deregulated genes and signs of transcriptional network alterations during the acute and recovery phases in GBS. Identification of pathways altered during disease might be target for immune regulation and with potential to ameliorate symptoms.

Literatura: o espaço da criação e transformação identitária na sala de aula

Este trabajo pretende señalar maneras de cambiar el concepto de que los estudiantes de una clase de noveno grado de la escuela primaria en la Escuela de Estado Dr. José Gonçalves de Medeiros, en la ciudad de Acari-RN, tienen de sí mismos, de su entorno cultural y su capacidad de producción poética. Además, las referencias a las desigualdades sociales en Brasil utilizando como eje motivador de leer la poesía de Conceição Evaristo relacionada con la memoria, la lucha y la apreciación de ascendencia africana. Las aportaciones teóricas sobre la situación socio-interaccionismo, la poesía, la poesía en la escuela y la secuencia didáctica colaboran para afirmar que el estudiante de escuela pública en su discurso revela influencia del entorno familiar, social y cultural, sino también el entorno educativo, así como los primeros signos de sentimiento nacional: una mayoría excluida. Su poesía haciendo tiene sus raíces en el entorno socio-cultural y geográfica, lo que denota un principio revuelta, sin embargo, con el reconocimiento de las contribuciones de las clases desfavorecidas para la construcción de nuestro país, el estudiante tiene otras cuestiones, como el mestizo, la identificación África y el orgullo de su origen, la memoria y la cultura. Por lo tanto, se confirmam la relación rizomáticas entre las dos realidades. La elección de la investigación de intervención, en la confluencia con la investigación-acción y la investigación participativa se debe al hecho de que el intercambio de experiencias en la investigación científica es rica y significativa. Con el uso de una secuencia didáctica, cuyo eje sentir la poesía, analizar textos y hacer poesía, el estudiante es llevado a la percepción de las ventanas del universo contenida en este género literario, que es una herramienta comunicativa que ofrece numerosas posibilidades expresión, conocimiento del otro y reconocer mutuamente.