A methodology proposal to obtain operational parameter forecasts and operational risk assessment in container terminals

Las terminales de contenedores son sistemas complejos en los que un elevado número de actores económicos interactúan para ofrecer servicios de alta calidad bajo una estricta planificación y objetivos económicos. Las conocidas como "terminales de nueva generación" están diseñadas para prestar servicio a los mega-buques, que requieren tasas de productividad que alcanzan los 300 movimientos/ hora. Estas terminales han de satisfacer altos estándares dado que la competitividad entre terminales es elevada. Asegurar la fiabilidad de las planificaciones del atraque es clave para atraer clientes, así como reducir al mínimo el tiempo que el buque permanece en el puerto. La planificación de las operaciones es más compleja que antaño, y las tolerancias para posibles errores, menores. En este contexto, las interrupciones operativas deben reducirse al mínimo. Las principales causas de dichas perturbaciones operacionales, y por lo tanto de incertidumbre, se identifican y caracterizan en esta investigación. Existen una serie de factores que al interactuar con la infraestructura y/o las operaciones desencadenan modos de fallo o parada operativa. Los primeros pueden derivar no solo en retrasos en el servicio sino que además puede tener efectos colaterales sobre la reputación de la terminal, o incluso gasto de tiempo de gestión, todo lo cual supone un impacto para la terminal. En el futuro inmediato, la monitorización de las variables operativas presenta gran potencial de cara a mejorar cualitativamente la gestión de las operaciones y los modelos de planificación de las terminales, cuyo nivel de automatización va en aumento. La combinación del criterio experto con instrumentos que proporcionen datos a corto y largo plazo es fundamental para el desarrollo de herramientas que ayuden en la toma de decisiones, ya que de este modo estarán adaptadas a las auténticas condiciones climáticas y operativas que existen en cada emplazamiento. Para el corto plazo se propone una metodología con la que obtener predicciones de parámetros operativos en terminales de contenedores. Adicionalmente se ha desarrollado un caso de estudio en el que se aplica el modelo propuesto para obtener predicciones de la productividad del buque. Este trabajo se ha basado íntegramente en datos proporcionados por una terminal semi-automatizada española. Por otro lado, se analiza cómo gestionar, evaluar y mitigar el efecto de las interrupciones operativas a largo plazo a través de la evaluación del riesgo, una forma interesante de evaluar el effecto que eventos inciertos pero probables pueden generar sobre la productividad a largo plazo de la terminal. Además se propone una definición de riesgo operativo junto con una discusión de los términos que representan con mayor fidelidad la naturaleza de las actividades y finalmente, se proporcionan directrices para gestionar los resultados obtenidos. Container terminals are complex systems where a large number of factors and stakeholders interact to provide high-quality services under rigid planning schedules and economic objectives. The socalled next generation terminals are conceived to serve the new mega-vessels, which are demanding productivity rates up to 300 moves/hour. These terminals need to satisfy high standards because competition among terminals is fierce. Ensuring reliability in berth scheduling is key to attract clients, as well as to reduce at a minimum the time that vessels stay the port. Because of the aforementioned, operations planning is becoming more complex, and the tolerances for errors are smaller. In this context, operational disturbances must be reduced at a minimum. The main sources of operational disruptions and thus, of uncertainty, are identified and characterized in this study. External drivers interact with the infrastructure and/or the activities resulting in failure or stoppage modes. The later may derive not only in operational delays but in collateral and reputation damage or loss of time (especially management times), all what implies an impact for the terminal. In the near future, the monitoring of operational variables has great potential to make a qualitative improvement in the operations management and planning models of terminals that use increasing levels of automation. The combination of expert criteria with instruments that provide short- and long-run data is fundamental for the development of tools to guide decision-making, since they will be adapted to the real climatic and operational conditions that exist on site. For the short-term a method to obtain operational parameter forecasts in container terminals. To this end, a case study is presented, in which forecasts of vessel performance are obtained. This research has been entirely been based on data gathered from a semi-automated container terminal from Spain. In the other hand it is analyzed how to manage, evaluate and mitigate disruptions in the long-term by means of the risk assessment, an interesting approach to evaluate the effect of uncertain but likely events on the long-term throughput of the terminal. In addition, a definition for operational risk evaluation in port facilities is proposed along with a discussion of the terms that better represent the nature of the activities involved and finally, guidelines to manage the results obtained are provided.

The Balanced Cross-Layer Design Routing Algorithm in Wireless Sensor Networks Using Fuzzy Logic

Recently, the cross-layer design for the wireless sensor network communication protocol has become more and more important and popular. Considering the disadvantages of the traditional cross-layer routing algorithms, in this paper we propose a new fuzzy logic-based routing algorithm, named the Balanced Cross-layer Fuzzy Logic (BCFL) routing algorithm. In BCFL, we use the cross-layer parameters’ dispersion as the fuzzy logic inference system inputs. Moreover, we give each cross-layer parameter a dynamic weight according the value of the dispersion. For getting a balanced solution, the parameter whose dispersion is large will have small weight, and vice versa. In order to compare it with the traditional cross-layer routing algorithms, BCFL is evaluated through extensive simulations. The simulation results show that the new routing algorithm can handle the multiple constraints without increasing the complexity of the algorithm and can achieve the most balanced performance on selecting the next hop relay node. Moreover, the Balanced Cross-layer Fuzzy Logic routing algorithm can adapt to the dynamic changing of the network conditions and topology effectively.

Determinación de la amplificación sísmica local en el Campus Sur UPM mediante la técnica de sismología de microtremores ReMi.

En el Campus Sur de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid se ha llevado a cabo un proyecto para obtener una caracterización del subsuelo mediante ensayos ReMi, en colaboración con el departamento de Geofísica del Instituto Geográfico Nacional. La técnica ReMi (Refraction Microtremor) permite, mediante ensayos geofísicos realizados localmente sobre el terreno,obtener los parámetros físicos del mismo, que resultan de especial interés en el ámbito de la ingeniería civil. Esta técnica se caracteriza por englobarse dentro de la sísmica pasiva, muy empleada en prospección geofísica y basada en la obtención del modelo subyacente de distribución de velocidades de propagación de la onda S en función de la profundidad, con la ventaja de aprovechar el ruido sísmico ambiental como fuente de energía. Fue desarrollada en el Laboratorio Sismológico de Nevada (EEUU) por Louie (2001), con el objetivo de presentar una técnica innovadora en la obtención de las velocidades de propagación de manera experimental. Presenta ciertas ventajas, como la observación directa de la dispersión de ondas superficiales,que da un buen resultado de la velocidad de onda S, siendo un método no invasivo, de bajo coste y buena resolución, aplicable en entornos urbanos o sensibles en los que tanto otras técnicas sismológicas como otras variedades de prospección presentan dificultades. La velocidad de propagación de la onda S en los 30 primeros metros VS30, es ampliamente reconocida como un parámetro equivalente válido para caracterizar geotécnicamente el subsuelo y se halla matemáticamente relacionada con la velocidad de propagación de las ondas superficiales a observar mediante la técnica ReMi. Su observación permite el análisis espectral de los registros adquiridos, obteniéndose un modelo representado por la curva de dispersión de cada emplazamiento, de modo que mediante una inversión se obtiene el modelo de velocidad de propagación en función de la profundidad. A través de estos modelos, pueden obtenerse otros parámetros de interés sismológico. Estos resultados se representan sobre mapas isométricos para obtener una relación espacial de los mismos, particularmente conocido como zonación sísmica. De este análisis se extrae que la VS30 promedio del Campus no es baja en exceso, correspondiéndose a posteriori con los resultados de amplificación sísmica, período fundamental de resonancia del lugar y profundidad del sustrato rocoso. En última instancia se comprueba que los valores de amplificación sísmica máxima y el período al cual se produce posiblemente coincidan con los períodos fundamentales de resonancia de algunos edificios del Campus. ABSTRACT In South Campus at Polytechnic University of Madrid, a project has been carried out to obtain a proper subsoil description by applying ReMi tests, in collaboration with the Department of Geophysics of the National Geographic Institute. Through geophysical tests conducted locally, the ReMi (Refraction Microtremor) technique allows to establish the physical parameters of soil, which are of special interest in the field of civil engineering. This technique is part of passive seismic methods, often used in geophysical prospecting. It focuses in obtaining the underlying model of propagation velocity distribution of the shear wave according to depth and has the advantage of being able to use seismic ambient noise as a source of energy. It was developed in the Nevada Seismological Laboratory (USA) by Louie (2001) as an innovative technique for obtaining propagation velocities experimentally. It has several other advantages, including the direct observation of the dispersion of surface waves, which allows to reliably measure S wave velocity. This is a non-invasive, low cost and good resolution method, which can be applied in urban or sensitive environments where other prospection methods present difficulties. The propagation velocity of shear waves in the first 30 meters Vs30 is widely recognized as a valid equivalent parameter to geotechnically characterize the subsurface. It is mathematically related to surface wave's velocity of propagation, which are to observe using REMI technique. Spectral analysis of acquired data sets up a model represented by the dispersion curve at each site, so that, using an inversion process, propagation velocity model in relation to depth is obtained. Through this models, other seismologically interesting parameters can be obtained. These results are represented on isometric maps in order to obtain a spatial relationship between them, a process which is known as seismic zonation. This analysis infers that Vs30 at South Campus is not alarmingly low , corresponding with subsequent results of seismic amplification, fundamental period of resonance of soil and depth of bedrock. Ultimately, it's found that calculated values of soil's fundamental periods at which maximum seismic amplification occurs, may possibly match fundamental periods of some Campus buildings.

Design Parameter Analysis of Point Absorber WEC via an Evolutionary-Algorithm-Based Dimensioning Tool

Wave energy conversion has an essential difference from other renewable energies since the dependence between the devices design and the energy resource is stronger. Dimensioning is therefore considered a key stage when a design project of Wave Energy Converters (WEC) is undertaken. Location, WEC concept, Power Take-Off (PTO) type, control strategy and hydrodynamic resonance considerations are some of the critical aspects to take into account to achieve a good performance. The paper proposes an automatic dimensioning methodology to be accomplished at the initial design project stages and the following elements are described to carry out the study: an optimization design algorithm, its objective functions and restrictions, a PTO model, as well as a procedure to evaluate the WEC energy production. After that, a parametric analysis is included considering different combinations of the key parameters previously introduced. A variety of study cases are analysed from the point of view of energy production for different design-parameters and all of them are compared with a reference case. Finally, a discussion is presented based on the results obtained, and some recommendations to face the WEC design stage are given.

Simultaneous determination of multiclass emerging contaminants in aquatic plants by ultrasound assisted matrix solid phase dispersion and GC-MS

A multiresidue method was developed for the simultaneous determination of 31 emerging contaminants (pharmaceutical compounds, hormones, personal care products, biocides and flame retardants) in aquatic plants. Analytes were extracted by ultrasound assisted-matrix solid phase dispersion (UA-MSPD) and determined by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry after sylilation. The method was validated for different aquatic plants (Typha angustifolia, Arundo donax and Lemna minor) and a semiaquatic cultivated plant (Oryza sativa) with good recoveries at concentrations of 100 and 25 ng g-1 wet weight, ranging from 70 to 120 %, and low method detection limits (0.3 to 2.2 ng g-1 wet weight). A significant difference of the chromatographic response was observed for some compounds in neat solvent versus matrix extracts and therefore quantification was carried out using matrix-matched standards in order to overcome this matrix effect. Aquatic plants taken from rivers located at three Spanish regions were analyzed and the compounds detected were parabens, bisphenol A, benzophenone-3, cyfluthrin and cypermethrin. The levels found ranged from 6 to 25 ng g-1 wet weight except for cypermethrin that was detected at 235 ng g-1 wet weight in Oryza sativa samples.

Fluorescence in situ hybridization analysis of keratinocyte growth factor gene amplification and dispersion in evolution of great apes and humans

Keratinocyte growth factor (KGF) is a member of the fibroblast growth factor family. Portions of the gene encoding KGF were amplified during primate evolution and are present in multiple nonprocessed copies in the human genome. Nucleotide analysis of a representative sampling of these KGF-like sequences indicated that they were at least 95% identical to corresponding regions of the KGF gene. To localize these sequences to specific chromosomal sites in human and higher primates, we used fluorescence in situ hybridization. In human, using a cosmid probe encoding KGF exon 1, we assigned the location of the KGF gene to chromosome 15q15–21.1. In addition, copies of KGF-like sequences hybridizing only with a cosmid probe encoding exons 2 and 3 were localized to dispersed sites on chromosome 2q21, 9p11, 9q12–13, 18p11, 18q11, 21q11, and 21q21.1. The distribution of KGF-like sequences suggests a role for alphoid DNA in their amplification and dispersion. In chimpanzee, KGF-like sequences were observed at five chromosomal sites, which were each homologous to sites in human, while in gorilla, a subset of four of these homologous sites was identified; in orangutan two sites were identified, while gibbon exhibited only a single site. The chromosomal localization of KGF sequences in human and great ape genomes indicates that amplification and dispersion occurred in multiple discrete steps, with initial KGF gene duplication and dispersion taking place in gibbon and involving loci corresponding to human chromosomes 15 and 21. These findings support the concept of a closer evolutionary relationship of human and chimpanzee and a possible selective pressure for such dispersion during the evolution of higher primates.

The cluA− mutant of Dictyostelium identifies a novel class of proteins required for dispersion of mitochondria

The cluA gene of Dictyostelium discoideum encodes a novel 150-kDa protein. Disruption of cluA results in clustering of mitochondria near the cell center. This is a striking difference from normal cells, whose mitochondria are dispersed uniformly throughout the cytoplasm. The mutant cell populations also exhibit an increased frequency of multinucleated cells, suggesting an impairment in cytokinesis. Both phenotypes are reversed by transformation of cluA− cells with a plasmid carrying a constitutively expressed cluA gene. The predicted sequence of the cluA gene product is homologous to sequences encoded by open reading frames in the genomes of Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Caenorhabditis elegans, but not to any known protein. The only exception is a short region with some homology to the 42-residue imperfect repeats present in the kinesin light chain, which probably function in protein–protein interaction. These studies identify a new class of proteins that appear to be required for the proper distribution of mitochondria.

The Malthusian parameter of ascents: What prevents the exponential increase of one’s ancestors?

The reason that the indefinite exponential increase in the number of one’s ancestors does not take place is found in the law of sibling interference, which can be expressed by the following simple equation:\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} \begin{equation*}\begin{matrix}{\mathit{N}}_{{\mathit{n}}} \enskip & \\ {\mathit{{\blacksquare}}} \enskip & \\ {\mathit{ASZ}} \enskip & \end{matrix} {\mathrm{\hspace{.167em}{\times}\hspace{.167em}2\hspace{.167em}=\hspace{.167em}}}{\mathit{N_{n+1},}}\end{equation*}\end{document} where Nn is the number of ancestors in the nth generation, ASZ is the average sibling size of these ancestors, and Nn+1 is the number of ancestors in the next older generation (n + 1). Accordingly, the exponential increase in the number of one’s ancestors is an initial anomaly that occurs while ASZ remains at 1. Once ASZ begins to exceed 1, the rate of increase in the number of ancestors is progressively curtailed, falling further and further behind the exponential increase rate. Eventually, ASZ reaches 2, and at that point, the number of ancestors stops increasing for two generations. These two generations, named AN SA and AN SA + 1, are the most critical in the ancestry, for one’s ancestors at that point come to represent all the progeny-produced adults of the entire ancestral population. Thereafter, the fate of one’s ancestors becomes the fate of the entire population. If the population to which one belongs is a successful, slowly expanding one, the number of ancestors would slowly decline as you move toward the remote past. This is because ABZ would exceed 2. Only when ABZ is less than 2 would the number of ancestors increase beyond the AN SA and AN SA + 1 generations. Since the above is an indication of a failing population on the way to extinction, there had to be the previous AN SA involving a far greater number of individuals for such a population. Simulations indicated that for a member of a continuously successful population, the AN SA ancestors might have numbered as many as 5.2 million, the AN SA generation being the 28th generation in the past. However, because of the law of increasingly irrelevant remote ancestors, only a very small fraction of the AN SA ancestors would have left genetic traces in the genome of each descendant of today.

PMD fundamentals: Polarization mode dispersion in optical fibers

This paper reviews the fundamental concepts and basic theory of polarization mode dispersion (PMD) in optical fibers. It introduces a unified notation and methodology to link the various views and concepts in Jones space and Stokes space. The discussion includes the relation between Jones vectors and Stokes vectors, rotation matrices, the definition and representation of PMD vectors, the laws of infinitesimal rotation, and the rules for PMD vector concatenation.

Radial and tangential dispersion patterns in the mouse retina are cell-class specific.

The retina is derived from a pseudostratified germinal zone in which the relative position of a progenitor cell is believed to determine the position of the progeny aligned in the radial axis. Such a developmental mechanism would ensure that radial arrays of cells which comprise functional units in the mature central nervous system are also clonally related. The present study has tested this hypothesis by using X chromosome-inactivation transgenic mosaic mice. We report that the retina shows a conspicuous distinction for clonally related neuroblasts of different laminar and functional fates: the rod photoreceptor, Müller, and bipolar cells are aligned in the radial axis, whereas the cone photoreceptor, horizontal, amacrine, and ganglion cells are tangentially displaced with respect to them. These results indicate that the dispersion of cell classes across the retinal surface is differentially constrained. Some classes of retinal neuroblast exhibit a significant tangential, as well as radial, component in their dispersion from the germinal zone, whereas others disperse only in the radial dimension. Consequently, the majority of radial columns within the mature retina must be derived from multiple progenitors. Because the cone photoreceptor, horizontal, amacrine, and ganglion cells establish nonrandom matrices in their cellular distributions within the respective retinal layers, tangential dispersion may be the means by which these matrices are constructed.

Modelagem estocástica da dispersão axial: aplicação em um reator tubular de polimerização.

Reatores tubulares de polimerização podem apresentar um perfil de velocidade bastante distorcido. Partindo desta observação, um modelo estocástico baseado no modelo de dispersão axial foi proposto para a representação matemática da fluidodinâmica de um reator tubular para produção de poliestireno. A equação diferencial foi obtida inserindo a aleatoriedade no parâmetro de dispersão, resultando na adição de um termo estocástico ao modelo capaz de simular as oscilações observadas experimentalmente. A equação diferencial estocástica foi discretizada e resolvida pelo método Euler-Maruyama de forma satisfatória. Uma função estimadora foi desenvolvida para a obtenção do parâmetro do termo estocástico e o parâmetro do termo determinístico foi calculado pelo método dos mínimos quadrados. Uma análise de convergência foi conduzida para determinar o número de elementos da discretização e o modelo foi validado através da comparação de trajetórias e de intervalos de confiança computacionais com dados experimentais. O resultado obtido foi satisfatório, o que auxilia na compreensão do comportamento fluidodinâmico complexo do reator estudado.

Migração de solutos em basalto fraturado: quantificação experimental em laboratório e validação matemática

A avaliação do risco a contaminação e a escolha de técnicas de remediação de poluentes em aquíferos fraturados depende da quantificação dos fenômenos envolvidos no transporte de solutos. A geometria da fratura, usualmente caracterizada pela abertura, é o principal parâmetro que indiretamente controla o transporte nos aquíferos fraturados. A simplificação mais comum desse problema é assumir que as fraturas são um par de placas planas e paralelas, isto é, com uma abertura constante. No entanto, por causa do limitado número de trabalhos experimentais, não está esclarecida a adequabilidade do uso de uma abertura constante para simular o transporte conservativo em fraturas do Aquífero Serra Geral (ASG), Brasil. O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar a influência da abertura de uma fratura natural do Aquífero Serra Geral sob o transporte conservativo de solutos. Uma amostra natural de basalto fraturado foi usada em um experimento hidráulico e de transporte de um traçador conservativo (escala de laboratório). O campo de abertura foi medido usando a técnica avançada, de alta resolução e tridimensional, chamada microtomografia computadorizada de raios-X. A concentração de traçador medida foi utilizada para validar uma solução analítica unidimensional da Equação de Advecção-dispersão (ADE). O desemprenho do ajuste da ADE às curvas de passagem experimentais foi avaliado para quatro diferentes tipos de aberturas constantes. Os resultados mostraram que o escoamento de água e o transporte de contaminantes pode ocorrer através de fraturas micrométricas, ocasionando, eventualmente, a contaminação do ASG. A abertura de balanço de massa é a única que pode ser chamada propriamente de \"abertura equivalente\". O uso de aberturas constantes na ADE não permitiu representar completamente o formato das curvas de passagem porque o campo de velocidade não é uniforme e intrinsicamente bidimensional. Portanto, na simulação do transporte deve-se incorporar a heterogeneidade da abertura da fratura.

Pion-kaon scattering amplitude constrained with forward dispersion relations up to 1.6 GeV

In this work we provide simple and precise parametrizations of the existing πK scattering data from threshold up to 1.6 GeV, which are constrained to satisfy forward dispersion relations as well as three additional threshold sum rules. We also provide phenomenological values of the threshold parameters and of the resonance poles that appear in elastic scattering.