972 resultados para Delphi Method
Resumo:
Under the influence of intelligence-led policing models, crime analysis methods have known of important developments in recent years. Applications have been proposed in several fields of forensic science to exploit and manage various types of material evidence in a systematic and more efficient way. However, nothing has been suggested so far in the field of false identity documents.This study seeks to fill this gap by proposing a simple and general method for profiling false identity documents which aims to establish links based on their visual forensic characteristics. A sample of more than 200 false identity documents including French stolen blank passports, counterfeited driving licenses from Iraq and falsified Bulgarian driving licenses was gathered from nine Swiss police departments and integrated into an ad hoc developed database called ProfID. Links detected automatically and systematically through this database were exploited and analyzed to produce strategic and tactical intelligence useful to the fight against identity document fraud.The profiling and intelligence process established for these three types of false identity documents has confirmed its efficiency, more than 30% of documents being linked. Identity document fraud appears as a structured and interregional criminality, against which material and forensic links detected between false identity documents might serve as a tool for investigation.
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Diffuse flow velocimetry (DFV) is introduced as a new, noninvasive, optical technique for measuring the velocity of diffuse hydrothermal flow. The technique uses images of a motionless, random medium (e.g.,rocks) obtained through the lens of a moving refraction index anomaly (e.g., a hot upwelling). The method works in two stages. First, the changes in apparent background deformation are calculated using particle image velocimetry (PIV). The deformation vectors are determined by a cross correlation of pixel intensities across consecutive images. Second, the 2-D velocity field is calculated by cross correlating the deformation vectors between consecutive PIV calculations. The accuracy of the method is tested with laboratory and numerical experiments of a laminar, axisymmetric plume in fluids with both constant and temperaturedependent viscosity. Results show that average RMS errors are ∼5%–7% and are most accurate in regions of pervasive apparent background deformation which is commonly encountered in regions of diffuse hydrothermal flow. The method is applied to a 25 s video sequence of diffuse flow from a small fracture captured during the Bathyluck’09 cruise to the Lucky Strike hydrothermal field (September 2009). The velocities of the ∼10°C–15°C effluent reach ∼5.5 cm/s, in strong agreement with previous measurements of diffuse flow. DFV is found to be most accurate for approximately 2‐D flows where background objects have a small spatial scale, such as sand or gravel
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A new statistical parallax method using the Maximum Likelihood principle is presented, allowing the simultaneous determination of a luminosity calibration, kinematic characteristics and spatial distribution of a given sample. This method has been developed for the exploitation of the Hipparcos data and presents several improvements with respect to the previous ones: the effects of the selection of the sample, the observational errors, the galactic rotation and the interstellar absorption are taken into account as an intrinsic part of the formulation (as opposed to external corrections). Furthermore, the method is able to identify and characterize physically distinct groups in inhomogeneous samples, thus avoiding biases due to unidentified components. Moreover, the implementation used by the authors is based on the extensive use of numerical methods, so avoiding the need for simplification of the equations and thus the bias they could introduce. Several examples of application using simulated samples are presented, to be followed by applications to real samples in forthcoming articles.
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Segmenting ultrasound images is a challenging problemwhere standard unsupervised segmentation methods such asthe well-known Chan-Vese method fail. We propose in thispaper an efficient segmentation method for this class ofimages. Our proposed algorithm is based on asemi-supervised approach (user labels) and the use ofimage patches as data features. We also consider thePearson distance between patches, which has been shown tobe robust w.r.t speckle noise present in ultrasoundimages. Our results on phantom and clinical data show avery high similarity agreement with the ground truthprovided by a medical expert.
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Contamination of weather radar echoes by anomalous propagation (anaprop) mechanisms remains a serious issue in quality control of radar precipitation estimates. Although significant progress has been made identifying clutter due to anaprop there is no unique method that solves the question of data reliability without removing genuine data. The work described here relates to the development of a software application that uses a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to obtain the temperature, humidity and pressure fields to calculate the three dimensional structure of the atmospheric refractive index structure, from which a physically based prediction of the incidence of clutter can be made. This technique can be used in conjunction with existing methods for clutter removal by modifying parameters of detectors or filters according to the physical evidence for anomalous propagation conditions. The parabolic equation method (PEM) is a well established technique for solving the equations for beam propagation in a non-uniformly stratified atmosphere, but although intrinsically very efficient, is not sufficiently fast to be practicable for near real-time modelling of clutter over the entire area observed by a typical weather radar. We demonstrate a fast hybrid PEM technique that is capable of providing acceptable results in conjunction with a high-resolution terrain elevation model, using a standard desktop personal computer. We discuss the performance of the method and approaches for the improvement of the model profiles in the lowest levels of the troposphere.
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Monitoring thunderstorms activity is an essential part of operational weather surveillance given their potential hazards, including lightning, hail, heavy rainfall, strong winds or even tornadoes. This study has two main objectives: firstly, the description of a methodology, based on radar and total lightning data to characterise thunderstorms in real-time; secondly, the application of this methodology to 66 thunderstorms that affected Catalonia (NE Spain) in the summer of 2006. An object-oriented tracking procedure is employed, where different observation data types generate four different types of objects (radar 1-km CAPPI reflectivity composites, radar reflectivity volumetric data, cloud-to-ground lightning data and intra-cloud lightning data). In the framework proposed, these objects are the building blocks of a higher level object, the thunderstorm. The methodology is demonstrated with a dataset of thunderstorms whose main characteristics, along the complete life cycle of the convective structures (development, maturity and dissipation), are described statistically. The development and dissipation stages present similar durations in most cases examined. On the contrary, the duration of the maturity phase is much more variable and related to the thunderstorm intensity, defined here in terms of lightning flash rate. Most of the activity of IC and CG flashes is registered in the maturity stage. In the development stage little CG flashes are observed (2% to 5%), while for the dissipation phase is possible to observe a few more CG flashes (10% to 15%). Additionally, a selection of thunderstorms is used to examine general life cycle patterns, obtained from the analysis of normalized (with respect to thunderstorm total duration and maximum value of variables considered) thunderstorm parameters. Among other findings, the study indicates that the normalized duration of the three stages of thunderstorm life cycle is similar in most thunderstorms, with the longest duration corresponding to the maturity stage (approximately 80% of the total time).
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Spatial resolution is a key parameter of all remote sensing satellites and platforms. The nominal spatial resolution of satellites is a well-known characteristic because it is directly related to the area in ground that represents a pixel in the detector. Nevertheless, in practice, the actual resolution of a specific image obtained from a satellite is difficult to know precisely because it depends on many other factors such as atmospheric conditions. However, if one has two or more images of the same region, it is possible to compare their relative resolutions. In this paper, a wavelet-decomposition-based method for the determination of the relative resolution between two remotely sensed images of the same area is proposed. The method can be applied to panchromatic, multispectral, and mixed (one panchromatic and one multispectral) images. As an example, the method was applied to compute the relative resolution between SPOT-3, Landsat-5, and Landsat-7 panchromatic and multispectral images taken under similar as well as under very different conditions. On the other hand, if the true absolute resolution of one of the images of the pair is known, the resolution of the other can be computed. Thus, in the last part of this paper, a spatial calibrator that is designed and constructed to help compute the absolute resolution of a single remotely sensed image is described, and an example of its use is presented.
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The presence of the Etruscan shrew Suncus etruscus is hard to prove where its predator, the barn owl Tyto alba, is absent, because most live traps are not triggered by it. I therefore developed a new trapping method involving a feeding period of 1 week followed by one night of trapping using modified Trip Trap traps. I show here in detail how I caught four Etruscan shrews in 2010 with 24 traps in the Valley of Dora Baltea (Piemonte, Italy). In 2011, another 11 Etruscan shrews were caught in Piemonte and Lombardia, Italy, and Ticino, Switzerland. The proposed new method is useful for establishing the presence of the species.
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We present a novel numerical approach for the comprehensive, flexible, and accurate simulation of poro-elastic wave propagation in cylindrical coordinates. An important application of this method is the modeling of complex seismic wave phenomena in fluid-filled boreholes, which represents a major, and as of yet largely unresolved, computational problem in exploration geophysics. In view of this, we consider a numerical mesh consisting of three concentric domains representing the borehole fluid in the center, the borehole casing and the surrounding porous formation. The spatial discretization is based on a Chebyshev expansion in the radial direction, Fourier expansions in the other directions, and a Runge-Kutta integration scheme for the time evolution. A domain decomposition method based on the method of characteristics is used to match the boundary conditions at the fluid/porous-solid and porous-solid/porous-solid interfaces. The viability and accuracy of the proposed method has been tested and verified in 2D polar coordinates through comparisons with analytical solutions as well as with the results obtained with a corresponding, previously published, and independently benchmarked solution for 2D Cartesian coordinates. The proposed numerical solution also satisfies the reciprocity theorem, which indicates that the inherent singularity associated with the origin of the polar coordinate system is handled adequately.
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The purpose of this study was to evaluate a new method of measuring rolling resistance in treadmill cycling and to establish its sensitivity and reproducibility. One participant was asked to keep a bicycle in equilibrium on a treadmill without pedalling at a constant speed of 5.56 m x s(-1), which was held in place in the front by a dynamometer. For each condition, the method consisted of 11 measurements of the force required to hold the cycle at different treadmill slopes (0-10%, increment 1%). The coefficient of rolling resistance was calculated based on the forces applied to the bicycle in equilibrium. To test the sensitivity of the method, the bicycle was successively equipped with three tyre types (700 x 28, 700 x 23, 700 x 22) and inflation pressure was set at 150, 300, 600, 900, and 1100 kPa. To test the reproducibility of the method, a second experimenter repeated all measurements done with the 700 x 23 tyres. The method was sensitive enough to detect an effect of both tyre type and inflation pressure (P < 0.001: two-way ANOVA). The measurement of the coefficient of rolling resistance by two separate experimenters resulted in a small bias of 0.00029 (95% CI, -0.00011 to 0.00068). In conclusion, the new method is sensitive and reliable, as well as being simple and affordable.
A filtering method to correct time-lapse 3D ERT data and improve imaging of natural aquifer dynamics
Resumo:
We have developed a processing methodology that allows crosshole ERT (electrical resistivity tomography) monitoring data to be used to derive temporal fluctuations of groundwater electrical resistivity and thereby characterize the dynamics of groundwater in a gravel aquifer as it is infiltrated by river water. Temporal variations of the raw ERT apparent-resistivity data were mainly sensitive to the resistivity (salinity), temperature and height of the groundwater, with the relative contributions of these effects depending on the time and the electrode configuration. To resolve the changes in groundwater resistivity, we first expressed fluctuations of temperature-detrended apparent-resistivity data as linear superpositions of (i) time series of riverwater-resistivity variations convolved with suitable filter functions and (ii) linear and quadratic representations of river-water-height variations multiplied by appropriate sensitivity factors; river-water height was determined to be a reliable proxy for groundwater height. Individual filter functions and sensitivity factors were obtained for each electrode configuration via deconvolution using a one month calibration period and then the predicted contributions related to changes in water height were removed prior to inversion of the temperature-detrended apparent-resistivity data. Applications of the filter functions and sensitivity factors accurately predicted the apparent-resistivity variations (the correlation coefficient was 0.98). Furthermore, the filtered ERT monitoring data and resultant time-lapse resistivity models correlated closely with independently measured groundwater electrical resistivity monitoring data and only weakly with the groundwater-height fluctuations. The inversion results based on the filtered ERT data also showed significantly less inversion artefacts than the raw data inversions. We observed resistivity increases of up to 10% and the arrival time peaks in the time-lapse resistivity models matched those in the groundwater resistivity monitoring data.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND: Prospective data describing the appropriateness of use of colonoscopy based on detailed panel-based clinical criteria are not available. METHODS: In a cohort of 553 consecutive patients referred for colonoscopy to two university-based Swiss outpatient clinics, the percentage of patients who underwent colonoscopy for appropriate, equivocal, and inappropriate indications and the relationship between appropriateness of use and the presence of relevant endoscopic lesions was prospectively assessed. This assessment was based on criteria of the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy and explicit American and Swiss criteria developed in 1994 by a formal panel process using the RAND/UCLA appropriateness method. RESULTS: The procedures were rated appropriate or equivocal in 72.2% by criteria of the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy, in 68.5% by explicit American criteria, and in 74.4% by explicit Swiss criteria (not statistically significant, NS). Inappropriate use (overuse) of colonoscopy was found in 27.8%, 31.5%, and 25.6%, respectively (NS). The proportion of appropriate procedures was higher with increasing age. Almost all reasons for using colonoscopy could be assessed by the two explicit criteria sets, whereas 28.4% of reasons for using colonoscopy could not be evaluated by the criteria of the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (p < 0.0001). The probability of finding a relevant endoscopic lesion was distinctly higher in the procedures rated appropriate or equivocal than in procedures judged inappropriate. CONCLUSIONS: The rate of inappropriate use of colonoscopy is substantial in Switzerland. Explicit criteria allow assessment of almost all indications encountered in clinical practice. In this study, all sets of appropriateness criteria significantly enhanced the probability of finding a relevant endoscopic lesion during colonoscopy.