Coupled subdaily and multiweek cycles during the lava dome erupt of Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat

Observations of volcanoes extruding andesitic lava to produce lava domes often reveal cyclic behaviour. At Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, cycles with sub-daily and multi-week periods have been recognised on many occasions. These two types of cycle have been modelled separately as stick-slip magma flow at the junction between a dyke and an overlying cylindrical conduit (Costa et al. 2012), and as the filling and discharge of magma through the elastic-walled dyke (Costa et al., 2007a) respectively. Here, we couple these two models to simulate the behaviour over a period of well-observed multi-week cycles, with accompanying sub-daily cycles, from 13 May to 21 September 1997. The coupled model captures well the asymmetrical first-order behaviour: the first 40% of the multi-week cycle consists of high rates of lava extrusion during short period/high amplitude sub-daily cycles as the dyke reservoir discharges itself. The remainder of the cycle involves increasing pressurization as more magma is stored, and extrusion rate falls, followed by a gradual increase in the period of the sub-daily cycles.

Using synoptic type analysis to understand New Zealand climate during the Mid-Holocene

Diagnosing the climate of New Zealand from low-resolution General Circulation Models (GCMs) is notoriously difficult due to the interaction of the complex topography and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid-latitude westerly winds. Therefore, methods of downscaling synoptic scale model data for New Zealand are useful to help understand past climate. New Zealand also has a wealth of palaeoclimate-proxy data to which the downscaled model output can be compared, and to provide a qualitative method of assessing the capability of GCMs to represent, in this case, the climate 6000 yr ago in the Mid-Holocene. In this paper, a synoptic weather and climate regime classification system using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of GCM and reanalysis data was used. The climate regimes are associated with surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies over New Zealand. From the analysis in this study, we find at 6000 BP that increased trough activity in summer and autumn led to increased precipitation, with an increased north-south pressure gradient ("zonal events") in winter and spring leading to drier conditions. Opposing effects of increased (decreased) temperature are also seen in spring (autumn) in the South Island, which are associated with the increased zonal (trough) events; however, the circulation induced changes in temperature are likely to have been of secondary importance to the insolation induced changes. Evidence from the palaeoclimate-proxy data suggests that the Mid-Holocene was characterized by increased westerly wind events in New Zealand, which agrees with the preference for trough and zonal regimes in the models.

An oceanic origin for the increase of atmospheric radiocarbon during the Younger Dryas

Variations in carbon-14 to carbon-12 ratio in the atmosphere (Δ14Catm) provide a powerful diagnostic for elucidating the timing and nature of geophysical and anthropological change. The (Atlantic) marine archive suggests a rapid Δ14Catm increase of 50‰ at the onset of the Younger Dryas (YD) cold reversal (12.9–11.7 kyr BP), which has not yet been satisfactorily explained in terms of magnitude or causal mechanism, as either a change in ocean ventilation or production rate. Using Earth-system model simulations and comparison of marine-based radiocarbon records from different ocean basins, we demonstrate that the YD Δ14Catm increase is smaller than suggested by the marine archive. This is due to changes in reservoir age, predominantly caused by reduced ocean ventilation.

General circulation model estimates of aerosol transport and radiative forcing during the Indian Ocean Experiment

Aerosol sources, transport, and sinks are simulated, and aerosol direct radiative effects are assessed over the Indian Ocean for the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) Intensive Field Phase during January to March 1999 using the Laboratoire de Me´te´orologie Dynamique (LMDZT) general circulation model. The model reproduces the latitudinal gradient in aerosol mass concentration and optical depth (AOD). The model-predicted aerosol concentrations and AODs agree reasonably well with measurements but are systematically underestimated during high-pollution episodes, especially in the month of March. The largest aerosol loads are found over southwestern China, the Bay of Bengal, and the Indian subcontinent. Aerosol emissions from the Indian subcontinent are transported into the Indian Ocean through either the west coast or the east coast of India. Over the INDOEX region, carbonaceous aerosols are the largest contributor to the estimated AOD, followed by sulfate, dust, sea salt, and fly ash. During the northeast winter monsoon, natural and anthropogenic aerosols reduce the solar flux reaching the surface by 25 W m�2, leading to 10–15% less insolation at the surface. A doubling of black carbon (BC) emissions from Asia results in an aerosol single-scattering albedo that is much smaller than in situ measurements, reflecting the fact that BC emissions are not underestimated in proportion to other (mostly scattering) aerosol types. South Asia is the dominant contributor to sulfate aerosols over the INDOEX region and accounts for 60–70% of the AOD by sulfate. It is also an important but not the dominant contributor to carbonaceous aerosols over the INDOEX region with a contribution of less than 40% to the AOD by this aerosol species. The presence of elevated plumes brings significant quantities of aerosols to the Indian Ocean that are generated over Africa and Southeast and east Asia.

Creation of the WATCH Forcing Data and Its Use to Assess Global and Regional Reference Crop Evaporation over Land during the Twentieth Century

The Water and Global Change (WATCH) project evaluation of the terrestrial water cycle involves using land surface models and general hydrological models to assess hydrologically important variables including evaporation, soil moisture, and runoff. Such models require meteorological forcing data, and this paper describes the creation of the WATCH Forcing Data for 1958–2001 based on the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and for 1901–57 based on reordered reanalysis data. It also discusses and analyses modelindependent estimates of reference crop evaporation. Global average annual cumulative reference crop evaporation was selected as a widely adopted measure of potential evapotranspiration. It exhibits no significant trend from 1979 to 2001 although there are significant long-term increases in global average vapor pressure deficit and concurrent significant decreases in global average net radiation and wind speed. The near-constant global average of annual reference crop evaporation in the late twentieth century masks significant decreases in some regions (e.g., the Murray–Darling basin) with significant increases in others.

Expression of the guanine nucleotide exchange factor, mr-gef, is regulated during the differentiation of specific subsets of telencephalic neurons

We have performed a screen combining subtractive hybridization with PCR to isolate genes that are regulated when neuroepithelial (NE) cells differentiate into neurons. From this screen, we have isolated a number of known genes that have not previously been associated with neurogenesis, together with several novel genes. Here we report that one of these genes, encoding a guanine nucleotide exchange factor (GEF), is regulated during the differentiation of distinct neuronal populations. We have cloned both rat and mouse GEF genes and shown that they are orthologs of the human gene, MR-GEF, which encodes a GEF that specifically activates the small GTPase, Rap1. We have therefore named the rat gene rat mr-gef (rmr-gef) and the mouse gene mouse mr-gef (mmr-gef). Here, we will collectively refer to these two rodent genes as mr-gef. Expression studies show that mr-gef is expressed by young neurons of the developing rodent CNS but not by progenitor cells in the ventricular zone (VZ). The expression pattern of mr-gef during early telencephalic neurogenesis is strikingly similar to that of GABA and the LIM homeobox gene Lhx6, a transcription factor expressed by GABAergic interneurons generated in the ventral telencephalon, some of which migrate into the cortex during development. These observations suggest that mr-gef encodes a protein that is part of a signaling pathway involved in telencephalic neurogenesis; particularly in the development of GABAergic interneurons.

Implications of the recent low solar minimum for the solar wind during the Maunder minimum

The behavior of the Sun and near-Earth space during grand solar minima is not understood; however, the recent long and low minimum of the decadal-scale solar cycle gives some important clues, with implications for understanding the solar dynamo and predicting space weather conditions. The speed of the near-Earth solar wind and the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) embedded within it can be reliably reconstructed for before the advent of spacecraft monitoring using observations of geomagnetic activity that extend back to the mid-19th century. We show that during the solar cycle minima around 1879 and 1901 the average solar wind speed was exceptionally low, implying the Earth remained within the streamer belt of slow solar wind flow for extended periods. This is consistent with a broader streamer belt, which was also a feature of the recent low minimum (2009), and yields a prediction that the low near-Earth IMF during the Maunder minimum (1640-1700), as derived from models and deduced from cosmogenic isotopes, was accompanied by a persistent and relatively constant solar wind of speed roughly half the average for the modern era.

Palaeovegetation in China during the late Quaternary: Biome reconstructions based on a global scheme of plant functional types

Two previous reconstructions of palaeovegetation across the whole of China were performed using a simple classification of plant functional types (PFTs). Now a more explicit, global PFT classification scheme has been developed, and a substantial number of additional pollen records have become available. Here we apply the global scheme of PFTs to a comprehensive set of pollen records available from China to test the applicability of the global scheme of PFTs in China, and to obtain a well-founded reconstruction of changing palaeovegetation patterns. A total of 806 pollen surface samples, 188 mid-Holocene (MH, 6000 14C yr BP) and 50 last glacial maximum (LGM, 18,000 14C yr BP) pollen records were used to reconstruct vegetation patterns in China, based on a new global classification system of PFTs and a standard numerical technique for biome assignment (biomization). The biome reconstruction based on pollen surface samples showed convincing agreement with present potential natural vegetation. Coherent patterns of change in biome distribution between MH, LGM and present are observed. In the MH, cold and cool-temperate evergreen needleleaf forests and mixed forests, temperate deciduous broadleaf forest, and warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest in eastern China were shifted northward by 200–500 km. Cold-deciduous forest in northeastern China was replaced by cold evergreen needleleaf forest while in central northern China, cold-deciduous forest was present at some sites now occupied by temperate grassland and desert. The forest–grassland boundary was 200–300 km west of its present position. Temperate xerophytic shrubland, temperate grassland and desert covered a large area on the Tibetan Plateau, but the area of tundra was reduced. Treeline was 300–500 m higher than present in Tibet. These changes imply generally warmer winters, longer growing seasons and more precipitation during the MH. Westward shifts of the forest–shrubland–grassland and grassland–desert boundaries imply greater moisture availability in the MH, consistent with a stronger summer monsoon. During the LGM, in contrast, cold-deciduous forest, cool-temperate evergreen needleleaf forest, cool mixed forests, warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest in eastern China were displaced to the south by 300–1000 km, while temperate deciduous broadleaf forest, pure warm-temperate evergreen forest, tropical semi-evergreen and evergreen broadleaf forests were restricted or absent from the mainland of southern China, implying colder winters than present. Strong shifts of temperate xerophytic shrubland, temperate grassland and desert to the south and east in northern and western China and on the Tibetan Plateau imply drier conditions than present.

Fire regimes during the last glacial

Sedimentary charcoal records document changes in fire regime. We have identified 67 sites (30 sites with better than millennial resolution) which have records for some part of the Last Glacial to analyse changes in global fire regimes. Fire was consistently lower during the glacial than during the Eemian and Holocene. Within the glacial, Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 is characterised globally by more fire than MIS 2. The signal for MIS 4 is less clear: there is more fire in the Northern Hemisphere and less fire in the Southern Hemisphere than during MIS 2 and 3. The records, most particularly records from the northern extratropics, show millennial-scale variability in fire regimes corresponding to the rapid climate changes associated with Dansgaard–Oeschger (D-O) cycles. Most of the D-O cycles during the Last Glacial and all of the Heinrich stadials are apparent in the composite global record of fire regime: fire increases during D-O warming events and decreases during intervals of rapid cooling. Our analyses show that fire regimes show a lagged response to rapid climate changes of ca 100–200 years in the case of D-O warming events, ca 0–100 years in the case of D-O cooling events and ca 200 years in the case of Heinrich Stadials. The Strong climatic variability experienced during the glacial resulted in important changes in fire regimes even though the base level of biomass burning was less than today.

Global patterns of vegetation response to millennial-scale variability and rapid climate change during the last glacial period

Ninety-four sites worldwide have sufficient resolution and dating to document the impact of millennial-scale climate variability on vegetation and fire regimes during the last glacial period. Although Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) cycles all show a basically similar gross structure, they vary in the magnitude and the length of the warm and cool intervals. We illustrate the geographic patterns in the climate-induced changes in vegetation by comparing D–O 6, D–O 8 and D–O 19. There is a strong response to both D–O warming events and subsequent cooling, most marked in the northern extratropics. Pollen records from marine cores from the northern extratropics confirm that there is no lag between the change in climate and the vegetation response, within the limits of the dating resolution (50–100 years). However, the magnitude of the change in vegetation is regionally specific and is not a simple function of either the magnitude or the duration of the change in climate as registered in Greenland ice cores. Fire regimes also show an initial immediate response to climate changes, but during cooling intervals there is a slow recovery of biomass burning after the initial reduction, suggesting a secondary control through the recovery of vegetation productivity. In the extratropics, vegetation changes are largely determined by winter temperatures while in the tropics they are largely determined by changes in plant-available water. Tropical vegetation records show changes corresponding to Heinrich Stadials but the response to D–O warming events is less marked than in the northern extratropics. There are very few high-resolution records from the Southern Hemisphere extratropics, but these records also show both a vegetation and fire response to millennial-scale climate variability. It is not yet possible to determine unequivocally whether terrestrial records reflect the asynchroneity apparent in the ice-core records.

Simulations of the impact of orbital forcing and ocean on the Asian summer monsoon during the Holocene

The importance of orbital forcing and ocean impact on the Asian summer monsoon in the Holocene is investigated by comparing simulations with a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (FOAM) and with the atmospheric component of this model (FSSTAM) forced with prescribed modern sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The results show: (1) the ocean amplifies the orbitally-induced increase in African monsoon precipitation, makes somewhat increase in southern India and damps the increase over the southeastern China. (2) The ocean could change the spatial distribution and local intensity of the orbitally-induced latitudinal atmospheric oscillation over the southeastern China and the subtropical western Pacific Ocean. (3) The orbital forcing mostly enhances the Asian summer precipitation in the FOAM and FSSTAM simulations. However, the ocean reduces the orbitally-induced summer precipitation and postpones the time of summer monsoon onset over the Asian monsoon region. (4) The orbital forcing considerably enhances the intensity of upper divergence, which is amplified by ocean further, over the eastern hemisphere. But the divergence is weaker in the FOAM simulations than in the FSSTAM simulations when the orbital forcing is fixed. (5) The orbital forcing can enhance the amplitude of precipitation variability over the subtropical Africa, the southeastern China and northwestern China, inversely, reduce it over central India and North China in the FOAM and FSSTAM simulations. The ocean obviously reduces the amplitude of precipitation variability over most of the Asian monsoon regions in the fixed orbital forcing simulations. (6) The areas characterized by increased summer precipitation in the long-term mean are mostly characterized by increased amplitude of short-term variability, whereas regions characterized by decreased precipitation are primarily characterized by decreased amplitude of short-term variability. However, the influences of orbital forcing or dynamical ocean on regional climate depend on the model.

Simulated changes in the relationship between tropical ocean temperatures and the western African monsoon during the mid-Holocene

Results from nine coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations have been used to investigate changes in the relationship between the variability of monsoon precipitation over western Africa and tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) between the mid-Holocene and the present day. Although the influence of tropical SSTs on the African monsoon is generally overestimated in the control simulations, the models reproduce aspects of the observed modes of variability. Thus, most models reproduce the observed negative correlation between western Sahelian precipitation and SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific, and many of them capture the positive correlation between SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Atlantic and precipitation over the Guinea coastal region. Although the response of individual model to the change in orbital forcing between 6 ka and present differs somewhat, eight of the models show that the strength of the teleconnection between SSTs in the eastern tropical Pacific and Sahelian precipitation is weaker in the mid-Holocene. Some of the models imply that this weakening was associated with a shift towards longer time periods (from 3–5 years in the control simulations toward 4–10 years in the mid-Holocene simulations). The simulated reduction in the teleconnection between eastern tropical Pacific SSTs and Sahelian precipitation appears to be primarily related to a reduction in the atmospheric circulation bridge between the Pacific and West Africa but, depending on the model, other mechanisms such as increased importance of other modes of tropical ocean variability or increased local recycling of monsoonal precipitation can also play a role.

Synergistic feedbacks between ocean and vegetation on mid- and high-latitude climates during the mid-Holocene

Simulations with the IPSL atmosphere–ocean model asynchronously coupled with the BIOME1 vegetation model show the impact of ocean and vegetation feedbacks, and their synergy, on mid- and high-latitude (>40°N) climate in response to orbitally-induced changes in mid-Holocene insolation. The atmospheric response to orbital forcing produces a +1.2 °C warming over the continents in summer and a cooling during the rest of the year. Ocean feedback reinforces the cooling in spring but counteracts the autumn and winter cooling. Vegetation feedback produces warming in all seasons, with largest changes (+1 °C) in spring. Synergy between ocean and vegetation feedbacks leads to further warming, which can be as large as the independent impact of these feedbacks. The combination of these effects causes the high northern latitudes to be warmer throughout the year in the ocean–atmosphere-vegetation simulation. Simulated vegetation changes resulting from this year-round warming are consistent with observed mid-Holocene vegetation patterns. Feedbacks also impact on precipitation. The atmospheric response to orbital-forcing reduces precipitation throughout the year; the most marked changes occur in the mid-latitudes in summer. Ocean feedback reduces aridity during autumn, winter and spring, but does not affect summer precipitation. Vegetation feedback increases spring precipitation but amplifies summer drying. Synergy between the feedbacks increases precipitation in autumn, winter and spring, and reduces precipitation in summer. The combined changes amplify the seasonal contrast in precipitation in the ocean–atmosphere-vegetation simulation. Enhanced summer drought produces an unrealistically large expansion of temperate grasslands, particularly in mid-latitude Eurasia.

Automated determination of auroral breakup during the substorm expansion phase using all sky imager data

This technique paper describes a novel method for quantitatively and routinely identifying auroral breakup following substorm onset using the Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions During Substorms (THEMIS) all-sky imagers (ASIs). Substorm onset is characterised by a brightening of the aurora that is followed by auroral poleward expansion and auroral breakup. This breakup can be identified by a sharp increase in the auroral intensity i(t) and the time derivative of auroral intensity i'(t). Utilising both i(t) and i'(t) we have developed an algorithm for identifying the time interval and spatial location of auroral breakup during the substorm expansion phase within the field of view of ASI data based solely on quantifiable characteristics of the optical auroral emissions. We compare the time interval determined by the algorithm to independently identified auroral onset times from three previously published studies. In each case the time interval determined by the algorithm is within error of the onset independently identified by the prior studies. We further show the utility of the algorithm by comparing the breakup intervals determined using the automated algorithm to an independent list of substorm onset times. We demonstrate that up to 50% of the breakup intervals characterised by the algorithm are within the uncertainty of the times identified in the independent list. The quantitative description and routine identification of an interval of auroral brightening during the substorm expansion phase provides a foundation for unbiased statistical analysis of the aurora to probe the physics of the auroral substorm as a new scientific tool for aiding the identification of the processes leading to auroral substorm onset.